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Virginia ferry pilot's plane found in NM
- Thread starter aadamson
- Start date
ARCHER Capabilities
quote:
The problem, as always, is training the people, having them available and getting the equipment in their hands. I'm not saying that this isn't the case with CAP today, just that this was a big problem we faced ten years ago. The fact that CAP is sending one of the ARCHER systems to this search is promising. However, they have, what, 16 of these systems? How much can they give in the first 24-48 hours? I'm not bashing, I just really an curious.
Doug,
You bring up a very important factor in any system. Yes, there is an ARCHER equiped G8 plane in each region of the country. The limitations come from the crew capabilities and hours flown per day. Each G8 has the standard three crew, Mission Pilot, Mission Observer and the ARCHER Mission Specialist which sits in the back of this large plane at a desk like area and operates the system and Satellite Digital Imaging System (SDIS) for real time transfer of data and digital images. Great stuff. But as humans, we are limited to how long we can work under sometimes challenging conditions. And each crew is limited by CAP in how long they can work. So again, every organization can use more good, qualified people (pilots) to train and assist.
By the way, most ARCHER crews are current military personnel so the availability of these crews are higher than normal volunteers that have to work full time jobs to pay for plane costs. This improves the ARCHER capabilities within the CAP organization.
Pat Garboden
Ozark, MO
quote:
The problem, as always, is training the people, having them available and getting the equipment in their hands. I'm not saying that this isn't the case with CAP today, just that this was a big problem we faced ten years ago. The fact that CAP is sending one of the ARCHER systems to this search is promising. However, they have, what, 16 of these systems? How much can they give in the first 24-48 hours? I'm not bashing, I just really an curious.
Doug,
You bring up a very important factor in any system. Yes, there is an ARCHER equiped G8 plane in each region of the country. The limitations come from the crew capabilities and hours flown per day. Each G8 has the standard three crew, Mission Pilot, Mission Observer and the ARCHER Mission Specialist which sits in the back of this large plane at a desk like area and operates the system and Satellite Digital Imaging System (SDIS) for real time transfer of data and digital images. Great stuff. But as humans, we are limited to how long we can work under sometimes challenging conditions. And each crew is limited by CAP in how long they can work. So again, every organization can use more good, qualified people (pilots) to train and assist.
By the way, most ARCHER crews are current military personnel so the availability of these crews are higher than normal volunteers that have to work full time jobs to pay for plane costs. This improves the ARCHER capabilities within the CAP organization.
Pat Garboden
Ozark, MO
Manual Activation of ELT
It would be interesting if the regulations show any informatin on manually activating the ELT.
I know what I would do if I knew I was going down...in any terrain!
The real issue is to declare an emergency. If this is received AND an ELT is going off, then CAP is notified much quicker. Part of the problem with the current system is that only a maximum of 10 ELT's can be tracked at a time.
If an ELT is heard (no distress or emergency call made) then CAP is placed on alert until the next satellite pass confirms the signal and general position. This usually takes another hour to coordinate this signal. Then an Urban Directional Finding Team (CAP) is sent to locate the ELT signal source. A CAP plane will assist the search to narrow the area if available. Finding enough qualified people at 2 in the morning can get interesting. Usually (thankfully) the signal is from a discarded ELT (one would think they would remove the batteries) or from low batteries that set it off, maybe a hard landing and the pilot did not check the status or in a shop where they are working in the plane and it is accidentally set off. CAP then locates the ELT, contacts the owner to come shut this down and then CAP files a report of the action. There is no cost to the owner of the ELT. (Unless this becomes a regular occurance over a short period of time).
The new 406 Mhz ELT, which can be coupled to a GPS, and are registered to each owner by N number or Registration number (boats) is included with the signal when activated. These hopefully will cut down on the time it takes to locate.
This is why CAP insists the owner of the ELT comes to the shop to disengage the ELT when it is going off no matter what time of day or night. The system currently only handles 10 signals at a time accurately. If CAP is unable to locate the owner, then CAP can wrap tin foil around the antenna to mute the signal and leave a very obnoxious orange sticker on your window alerting why there is tin foil on the plane and hope they do a visual check before next flight.
In your post flight check, please add tuning to 122.5 and listen for an ELT before shut down. If you hear an ELT, it just might be yours.
Pat Garboden
Ozark, MO
It would be interesting if the regulations show any informatin on manually activating the ELT.
I know what I would do if I knew I was going down...in any terrain!
The real issue is to declare an emergency. If this is received AND an ELT is going off, then CAP is notified much quicker. Part of the problem with the current system is that only a maximum of 10 ELT's can be tracked at a time.
If an ELT is heard (no distress or emergency call made) then CAP is placed on alert until the next satellite pass confirms the signal and general position. This usually takes another hour to coordinate this signal. Then an Urban Directional Finding Team (CAP) is sent to locate the ELT signal source. A CAP plane will assist the search to narrow the area if available. Finding enough qualified people at 2 in the morning can get interesting. Usually (thankfully) the signal is from a discarded ELT (one would think they would remove the batteries) or from low batteries that set it off, maybe a hard landing and the pilot did not check the status or in a shop where they are working in the plane and it is accidentally set off. CAP then locates the ELT, contacts the owner to come shut this down and then CAP files a report of the action. There is no cost to the owner of the ELT. (Unless this becomes a regular occurance over a short period of time).
The new 406 Mhz ELT, which can be coupled to a GPS, and are registered to each owner by N number or Registration number (boats) is included with the signal when activated. These hopefully will cut down on the time it takes to locate.
This is why CAP insists the owner of the ELT comes to the shop to disengage the ELT when it is going off no matter what time of day or night. The system currently only handles 10 signals at a time accurately. If CAP is unable to locate the owner, then CAP can wrap tin foil around the antenna to mute the signal and leave a very obnoxious orange sticker on your window alerting why there is tin foil on the plane and hope they do a visual check before next flight.
In your post flight check, please add tuning to 122.5 and listen for an ELT before shut down. If you hear an ELT, it just might be yours.
Pat Garboden
Ozark, MO
n5lp
fugio ergo sum
More Information
I have a little bit more and corrected information today.
Previously, I reported that the last radar return was on the west edge of the Guadalupes. The corrected information is that the last Mode C return was at about 8000 feet MSL (about 2,000 AGL) on the west end of the Brokeoff Mountains, which are separated a bit from the Guadalupes. After that there were 4 more possible primary returns.
It appears that right after the small Brokeoff range the aircraft did a 90 degree right turn over an area of relatively low terrain that averages around 6,500 MSL. The direction of flight at the last possible primary was toward much higher terrain. During the flight path to the south the groundspeed appeared to decrease from 150 knots to 80 knots.
Point 4 is the last mode C hit
I have a little bit more and corrected information today.
Previously, I reported that the last radar return was on the west edge of the Guadalupes. The corrected information is that the last Mode C return was at about 8000 feet MSL (about 2,000 AGL) on the west end of the Brokeoff Mountains, which are separated a bit from the Guadalupes. After that there were 4 more possible primary returns.
It appears that right after the small Brokeoff range the aircraft did a 90 degree right turn over an area of relatively low terrain that averages around 6,500 MSL. The direction of flight at the last possible primary was toward much higher terrain. During the flight path to the south the groundspeed appeared to decrease from 150 knots to 80 knots.
Point 4 is the last mode C hit
The higher terrain to the right is Guadalupe Mountains National Park.
Louise Hose
Well Known Member
Afternoon report
I just returned from a quick run to the CNM airport. There were 21 CAP planes on the ramp this morning. They currently still have multiple planes out flying grid patterns. Apparently, no useful sightings have been made yet....just a few hours short of 8 days following the last transponder hits. The Goggle Earth photos that Larry provided do not begin to show how rugged the terrain is in the primary search area. Part of the area is also heavily forested. As these posts began, This can't be good.
I just returned from a quick run to the CNM airport. There were 21 CAP planes on the ramp this morning. They currently still have multiple planes out flying grid patterns. Apparently, no useful sightings have been made yet....just a few hours short of 8 days following the last transponder hits. The Goggle Earth photos that Larry provided do not begin to show how rugged the terrain is in the primary search area. Part of the area is also heavily forested. As these posts began, This can't be good.
Bob Martin
Well Known Member
Thanks so much.
Guys......
Thanks so much for your reports, even if there is nothing new to report, it means a lot to hear something.
Just to know how much is happening, it is amazing.
The google earth pics added a lot of detail to the reality of things for sure.
This has brought up so much good safety information and food for thought.
Still hanging onto thoughts of survival and rescue, with lots of prayers too.
Bob Martin
Guys......
Thanks so much for your reports, even if there is nothing new to report, it means a lot to hear something.
Just to know how much is happening, it is amazing.
The google earth pics added a lot of detail to the reality of things for sure.
This has brought up so much good safety information and food for thought.
Still hanging onto thoughts of survival and rescue, with lots of prayers too.
Bob Martin
The Weather?
Thanks for the Google images Larry - gives folks a much better idea of what's out there. have you heard what the weather was at the time of the last radar returns? To me, a 90 turn on a cross-country implies either a weather deviation or some sightseeing - maybe he was going to go look at Guadalupe Peak?
And thanks to Louise for the report - 21 airplanes is a BIG search - it is humbling to think that those kind of resources might be turned out for any of us!
Paul
Thanks for the Google images Larry - gives folks a much better idea of what's out there. have you heard what the weather was at the time of the last radar returns? To me, a 90 turn on a cross-country implies either a weather deviation or some sightseeing - maybe he was going to go look at Guadalupe Peak?
And thanks to Louise for the report - 21 airplanes is a BIG search - it is humbling to think that those kind of resources might be turned out for any of us!
Paul
Search perspective
Just to put a little perspective to the above information. The whole CAP Missouri Wing that I operate in has 8 corporate (CAP) aircraft. If there are 21 CAP planes on the ramp getting ready for sorties with maybe others already out, then I would speculate that the majority of the regional assets are being used in this search.
This is a large scale effort. Figure a minimum of 3 person crew per plane. Incident Command structure with ground teams along with additional County or Sherrif SAR teams would push this figure into a large number of people involved in this effort.
Keep the faith.
Pat Garboden
Ozark, MO
Louise Hose said:
Just to put a little perspective to the above information. The whole CAP Missouri Wing that I operate in has 8 corporate (CAP) aircraft. If there are 21 CAP planes on the ramp getting ready for sorties with maybe others already out, then I would speculate that the majority of the regional assets are being used in this search.
This is a large scale effort. Figure a minimum of 3 person crew per plane. Incident Command structure with ground teams along with additional County or Sherrif SAR teams would push this figure into a large number of people involved in this effort.
Keep the faith.
Pat Garboden
Ozark, MO
n5lp
fugio ergo sum
The weather was clear with a very strong west wind. Peak winds in nearby Guadalupe Pass reported as 90 knots that day.Ironflight said:
If it would have been me, under those conditions, sightseeing would have been the last thing on my mind.
I have flown that area in much milder winds and been semi-terrified. My guess would be the airplane was being knocked around bigtime and there was strong downwash east of the Brokeoffs.
It is amazing how turbulent it can be with 15 knot winds, in the Guadalupes.
Louise drove her vehicle over Guadalupe Pass that day and was apprehensive about doing that.
n5lp said:
That's so spot on. For anyone's who's never done any kind of mountain flying, it's just absolutely amazing how powerful updrafts and downdrafts can get. I've read about them just like everyone else but until the first time I got myself caught in a 2000+FPM downdraft it never really registered. Definately got my attention and I've been a lot more careful since.
I'm not going to speculate what happened here since there's no way of knowing...just chiming in with a personal experience.
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Louise Hose
Well Known Member
21 planes total
There are a total of 21 planes working out of Carlsbad and, to my knowledge, none based elsewhere. I believe the team leader told me last night that the planes included all of the New Mexico planes and half of all CAP resources in Texas. But, I'm not certain that I remember exactly.
gorbak said:
There are a total of 21 planes working out of Carlsbad and, to my knowledge, none based elsewhere. I believe the team leader told me last night that the planes included all of the New Mexico planes and half of all CAP resources in Texas. But, I'm not certain that I remember exactly.
Louise Hose
Well Known Member
NPS suspends ground search
The National Park Service had this notice in this morning's postings for employees:
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NATIONAL PARK
Ground Search For Missing Plane Suspended
The week-long ground search for a missing plane and pilot came to a conclusion on Wednesday. All high probability areas were searched, but no sign of a crash site was found. The search began on February 28th, when an RV-6 piloted by James Willess disappeared from radar over a remote section of the park. The intensive search involved park staff, Texas Highway Patrol officers, and Civil Air Patrol and Texas Department of Public Safety aircraft. Routine patrols will continue to search for signs of the downed plane, and specific areas will be checked as new intelligence is developed. The Civil Air Patrol will continue an aerial search.
The National Park Service had this notice in this morning's postings for employees:
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NATIONAL PARK
Ground Search For Missing Plane Suspended
The week-long ground search for a missing plane and pilot came to a conclusion on Wednesday. All high probability areas were searched, but no sign of a crash site was found. The search began on February 28th, when an RV-6 piloted by James Willess disappeared from radar over a remote section of the park. The intensive search involved park staff, Texas Highway Patrol officers, and Civil Air Patrol and Texas Department of Public Safety aircraft. Routine patrols will continue to search for signs of the downed plane, and specific areas will be checked as new intelligence is developed. The Civil Air Patrol will continue an aerial search.
David Johnson
Well Known Member
90 knot winds at the pass is nothing to be trifled with. A rotor or eddy current could easily be lethal. 70 knot winds over the Spanish Peaks in Colorado ripped most of the tail off a B-52 that flew through the downwash several years ago, and 50 knot winds over the San Juans ripped the wings off a Cessna 210 just a couple of years ago. It's rare, but it happens and ranks among my greatest fears when flying in the mountains. 2000' AGL is not enough on a day with winds as described here.n5lp said:
Terrible news about an experienced aviator. Hits way too close to home...probably for all of us. My best to his family and friends. With the warm weather the mountain west has been enjoying, the chances of survival in the wilderness are much better than at other times of the year.
Dave
n5lp
fugio ergo sum
The word now is that CAP is flying the last few grids this morning. These grids are in the plains east and southeast of Carlsbad that most people think would be an unlikely area to find the aircraft. They are searching this area because there is no radar coverage down low there so there is the theoretical possibility he could have ended up in this area.n5lp said:
Some of the CAP aircraft have already left and the others will probably leave around mid-day today.
My excellent source made an observation that I missed. If you look at the radar hits, it looks like the aircraft was traveling due east up through what I labeled point 4 on the Google Earth photograph, then turned due south to the point I labeled point 5.
What I hadn't noticed is that there is an approximately 5 minute time gap between point 4 and 5 so we don't know what happened in that 5 minutes except that the aircraft did not likely get very high.
Some of the local pilots were confused as to why the pilot would have turned right, up West Dog Canyon, toward higher terrain, but perhaps initially he turned down canyon. This gap opens up many possibilities.
After the official search is suspended, be assured that there will be local people poking around up in the Dog Canyon area both on the ground and in the air.
Bob Martin
Well Known Member
Thanks Larry
Thanks for the update and forward thinking Larry.
Your efforts are greatly appreaciated.
Thanks for the update and forward thinking Larry.
Your efforts are greatly appreaciated.
n5lp
fugio ergo sum
Better Wind Data
I have been a little uncomfortable repeating the wind data I had heard about on February 28th, the day of this incident. What I heard (90 knot peak winds that day in Guadalupe Pass) was from official type people talking, but they did not cite sources. It was very windy that day, but 90 knots is unusual, even in Guadalupe Pass.
I tried to find the old wind data for the area but failed. I solicited the help of a very sharp local weather guy and he came up with the real stuff.
The last primary radar return, that was likely the subject aircraft, was at 16:29 MST. The reported wind at Guadalupe Pass at 16:51 MST was WSW at 53 knots gusting to 65 knots. There is a funnel effect at Guadalupe Pass. More representive of the area of the last radar hit is The Bowl, in the high country of Guadalupe Mountains National Park. At 16:38 MST The Bowl was reporting W at 38 knots gusting to 60 knots.
The verbally reported peak wind speed of 90 knots for the day is inaccurate. The peak wind speed for the day was only slightly higher than the wind was at 16:51, above.
This doesn't fundamentally change anything, it was nasty windy, but I think it is better data.
I have been a little uncomfortable repeating the wind data I had heard about on February 28th, the day of this incident. What I heard (90 knot peak winds that day in Guadalupe Pass) was from official type people talking, but they did not cite sources. It was very windy that day, but 90 knots is unusual, even in Guadalupe Pass.
I tried to find the old wind data for the area but failed. I solicited the help of a very sharp local weather guy and he came up with the real stuff.
The last primary radar return, that was likely the subject aircraft, was at 16:29 MST. The reported wind at Guadalupe Pass at 16:51 MST was WSW at 53 knots gusting to 65 knots. There is a funnel effect at Guadalupe Pass. More representive of the area of the last radar hit is The Bowl, in the high country of Guadalupe Mountains National Park. At 16:38 MST The Bowl was reporting W at 38 knots gusting to 60 knots.
The verbally reported peak wind speed of 90 knots for the day is inaccurate. The peak wind speed for the day was only slightly higher than the wind was at 16:51, above.
This doesn't fundamentally change anything, it was nasty windy, but I think it is better data.
n5lp
fugio ergo sum
CAP Gone
I went out to the Carlsbad Airport during the lunch hour. All the CAP gear that was in the pilot's lounge (where they had been set up) is gone. There was one CAP plane on the ramp. I talked to a person associated with that plane who was having lunch and getting ready to go home.
I posted a bit of speed data earlier. This data was on the sheet of radar hits that we had gotten. A friend just did his own calculations and got a little bit different results.
Working with the last four primary target hits, that were trending south in West Dog Canyon, he found that the average ground speed between points decreased from 141 knots to 70 knots within about 1.8 miles. The speed data between the last two hits is for a distance of .695 miles, so of course the lowest speed may have been less. The aircraft was cruising at about 180 knots before reaching the mountains.
I went out to the Carlsbad Airport during the lunch hour. All the CAP gear that was in the pilot's lounge (where they had been set up) is gone. There was one CAP plane on the ramp. I talked to a person associated with that plane who was having lunch and getting ready to go home.
I posted a bit of speed data earlier. This data was on the sheet of radar hits that we had gotten. A friend just did his own calculations and got a little bit different results.
Working with the last four primary target hits, that were trending south in West Dog Canyon, he found that the average ground speed between points decreased from 141 knots to 70 knots within about 1.8 miles. The speed data between the last two hits is for a distance of .695 miles, so of course the lowest speed may have been less. The aircraft was cruising at about 180 knots before reaching the mountains.
N908RV
Well Known Member
Larry,
Just wanted to express my thanks and gratitude for your detailed posts. I am a local Warrenton, VA area pilot (completed and flying an RV-8) The missing pilot, Jim Willess, as well as the owner of the RV-6 are local flying friends. You really gave us good local intelligence that we just can't get anywhere else. Dave Fields (who you have correspondend with earlier) and I have been keeping the local folks updated with your info.
Moreover, to help out the owner, I almost volunteered to ferry this RV-6 back from Mojave myself, but because it wasn't as pratical a solution for a number of reasons (work constraints, the fact that I am more comfortable flying right handed stick, extra insurance; aircraft was known to have no heater) and since Jim was ultimately available and an excellent local ferry pilot, he did the flight. It is of course very humbling to think that I might have ended up in the same position.
If Jim is ultimately lost in this, in addition to his family, it is quite a loss for the local aviation community. Jim was an accomplished pilot with over tens of thousands of flight hours and several thousand of that was in taildraggers. Jim is also a CFI; he gave me my tailwheel endorsement about 8 years ago, which opened up a whole world of aerobatic and sport planes for me. He's also more recently a DAR and had even signed off the airworthiness certificate after I built my RV-8. Perhaps more importantly, Jim is a very active member of the local ultralight community and has been providing ultralight instruction, maintenance and safety advice to that community for decades.
Of course we may never know what really happened here, but speaking for some of the usual suspects back at Warrenton Airport we appreciate you taking the time to keep us apprised of the local situation.
Trying to remain hopeful,
Rob Brooks
RV-8
N908RV
Just wanted to express my thanks and gratitude for your detailed posts. I am a local Warrenton, VA area pilot (completed and flying an RV-8) The missing pilot, Jim Willess, as well as the owner of the RV-6 are local flying friends. You really gave us good local intelligence that we just can't get anywhere else. Dave Fields (who you have correspondend with earlier) and I have been keeping the local folks updated with your info.
Moreover, to help out the owner, I almost volunteered to ferry this RV-6 back from Mojave myself, but because it wasn't as pratical a solution for a number of reasons (work constraints, the fact that I am more comfortable flying right handed stick, extra insurance; aircraft was known to have no heater) and since Jim was ultimately available and an excellent local ferry pilot, he did the flight. It is of course very humbling to think that I might have ended up in the same position.
If Jim is ultimately lost in this, in addition to his family, it is quite a loss for the local aviation community. Jim was an accomplished pilot with over tens of thousands of flight hours and several thousand of that was in taildraggers. Jim is also a CFI; he gave me my tailwheel endorsement about 8 years ago, which opened up a whole world of aerobatic and sport planes for me. He's also more recently a DAR and had even signed off the airworthiness certificate after I built my RV-8. Perhaps more importantly, Jim is a very active member of the local ultralight community and has been providing ultralight instruction, maintenance and safety advice to that community for decades.
Of course we may never know what really happened here, but speaking for some of the usual suspects back at Warrenton Airport we appreciate you taking the time to keep us apprised of the local situation.
Trying to remain hopeful,
Rob Brooks
RV-8
N908RV
n5lp
fugio ergo sum
I have a friend who has done a lot of analysis about what might have happened. Using the radar data and local knowledge and logic he forwarded to me some locations that he thought very likely to find the site of this probable accident.
This morning conditions were pretty suitable and CAP has left, so I checked out the locations. These were hills or ridges just east and southeast of the last probable primary radar hit. He made some judgments on likely altitudes based on the El Paso radar location and the fact that Mode C was not coming through at this point.
Even though the winds were reasonably light from the southwest I couldn't get real low but made around 20 or 25 passes over the locations. This area is mostly steep, bare, rock hillsides, so I had a pretty good view. In retrospect I should have paid more attention to the canyon bottoms that have obstructing trees. I did not see anything unusual.
I flew the last known route, several times, trying to decide what likely decisions would have been made. On the route to the southeast you are getting a face-full of mountain; quite intimidating. If the aircraft continued up one of the two canyons along the route southeast and was able to get over the ridges at the head of the canyons, it would be in the most rugged part of Guadalupe Mountains National Park, with high trees and deep and very steep canyons.
Today, I got the feeling that the pilot may have been trying to reverse course back to the northwest to lower and much milder terrain and it seemed like, even with a 60 knot tailwind, that would have been possible. I also checked quite a bit of the ridge to the east that would come into play if a 180 was attempted.
If the airplane cleared the ridges to the southeast or made a 180 to the northwest that opens up large search areas that I don't think I could make much of a dent in.
I would expect there will be some plans to hike in the most likely areas, but that probably won't happen real quickly. I would like to fly some more, when our spring winds and my schedule allow.
I was in contact with a friend of the family today, and he and others are also doing some analysis to try to decide what might have happened.
I will try to update with any further significant news, but wouldn't expect anything soon.
This morning conditions were pretty suitable and CAP has left, so I checked out the locations. These were hills or ridges just east and southeast of the last probable primary radar hit. He made some judgments on likely altitudes based on the El Paso radar location and the fact that Mode C was not coming through at this point.
Even though the winds were reasonably light from the southwest I couldn't get real low but made around 20 or 25 passes over the locations. This area is mostly steep, bare, rock hillsides, so I had a pretty good view. In retrospect I should have paid more attention to the canyon bottoms that have obstructing trees. I did not see anything unusual.
I flew the last known route, several times, trying to decide what likely decisions would have been made. On the route to the southeast you are getting a face-full of mountain; quite intimidating. If the aircraft continued up one of the two canyons along the route southeast and was able to get over the ridges at the head of the canyons, it would be in the most rugged part of Guadalupe Mountains National Park, with high trees and deep and very steep canyons.
Today, I got the feeling that the pilot may have been trying to reverse course back to the northwest to lower and much milder terrain and it seemed like, even with a 60 knot tailwind, that would have been possible. I also checked quite a bit of the ridge to the east that would come into play if a 180 was attempted.
If the airplane cleared the ridges to the southeast or made a 180 to the northwest that opens up large search areas that I don't think I could make much of a dent in.
I would expect there will be some plans to hike in the most likely areas, but that probably won't happen real quickly. I would like to fly some more, when our spring winds and my schedule allow.
I was in contact with a friend of the family today, and he and others are also doing some analysis to try to decide what might have happened.
I will try to update with any further significant news, but wouldn't expect anything soon.
sportpilot
Well Known Member
n5lp said:
Larry, wish that I could help. The old 150hp super cub was the best search plane for what your doing I think. Does it look like maybe he was a bit more north of the Park? If his heading was a bit north of east crossing over the west end of brokeoff mountains he would be pointing right at Carlsbad. This would have kept him clear of the Guadalupe park and also Carlsbad caverns and seems to be the safest route through that area. Could it be he planned Carlsbad as his next fuel stop? The milage seems to add up. Just my opinion. Good luck in the search. I hope some ranger finds him hiking down one of the back trails on his way out.
n5lp
fugio ergo sum
There is an automated aviation weather reporting station in Guadalupe Pass (KGDP). I find it very useful.GrayHawk said:
I don't believe it is available directly by radio but it is available from all the standard places like ADDS and Flight Service. I just looked at it on my Garmin XM weather. If you didn't know about it you might not notice it, since there is no airport. It just shows up as a little triangle, as of this morning a red triangle for IFR.
Earlier in this thread I reported data from this station near the time of the last radar hits.
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n5lp
fugio ergo sum
The last steady course was directly east along the Texas/New Mexico state line. This course points directly at Midland, Texas. Two days ago a member of the family found some flight planning data on a computer that indicated a planned stop at Pecos, Texas. At the time of the planning he had planned to get a very early start, but was delayed by a low battery and a paperwork problem.sportpilot said:
gmcjetpilot
Well Known Member
Good idea, be careful
Colorodo AWOS mountain PASS and Peak Freqs and Phone Nos
Of course pre-flight planning should include winds aloft before flying over the hills.
A rule of thumb is when winds aloft get to about 25-30 kts at mountain peak elevations, one should consider a NO GO, unless you can clear tops by at least 2,000 to 3,000 feet, however turbulence can be as much as 10,000 feet above peeks (especially with 60kt winds). You can forget a smooth scenic flight thru the pass with winds over 20 mph. Consider clearing the peaks by at least half their height if there are strong winds. So a 10k mountain means flying at 15k. That is why in the Western USA, O2 is handy. IFR MEA's can be well into the O2 altitudes. There is still no guarantee by flying higher in high wind conditions, so leave an OUT.
I'v flown over the Rockies in the mid 30's in a 400,000 lb plane and felt "mountain wave". It was an eye opener. I've had the snot knocked out of me down-wind of large peaks not even near the hills in a 19 seat Metro-liner. I've got massive respect for winds and mountains. If they are super high consider waiting. There are a few accidents of large aircraft contributed to mountain wave/turbulence. Pan handle of TX is not mountains, but mountain wave can extend 150 miles or more downwind (700 miles has been seen). I am making no comment on what has happened, just passing along info I found and think might be helpful.
Here are some great mountain flying sites with tons of info:
Massive info on mountain flying (highly recommend -poke around the site, its really good)
Recommend routes AOPA
There are several other sites you can google. Keep in mind some of the best most experienced mountain flying pilots can't avoid a crash. Conditions can be severe enough to overcome the most capable plane and pilot.
Never give up hope, thoughts and prayers.
Not a bad idea, They already have (12) mountain pass & peak's AWOS freqs and phone #'s:GrayHawk said:
Colorodo AWOS mountain PASS and Peak Freqs and Phone Nos
Of course pre-flight planning should include winds aloft before flying over the hills.
A rule of thumb is when winds aloft get to about 25-30 kts at mountain peak elevations, one should consider a NO GO, unless you can clear tops by at least 2,000 to 3,000 feet, however turbulence can be as much as 10,000 feet above peeks (especially with 60kt winds). You can forget a smooth scenic flight thru the pass with winds over 20 mph. Consider clearing the peaks by at least half their height if there are strong winds. So a 10k mountain means flying at 15k. That is why in the Western USA, O2 is handy. IFR MEA's can be well into the O2 altitudes. There is still no guarantee by flying higher in high wind conditions, so leave an OUT.
I'v flown over the Rockies in the mid 30's in a 400,000 lb plane and felt "mountain wave". It was an eye opener. I've had the snot knocked out of me down-wind of large peaks not even near the hills in a 19 seat Metro-liner. I've got massive respect for winds and mountains. If they are super high consider waiting. There are a few accidents of large aircraft contributed to mountain wave/turbulence. Pan handle of TX is not mountains, but mountain wave can extend 150 miles or more downwind (700 miles has been seen). I am making no comment on what has happened, just passing along info I found and think might be helpful.
Here are some great mountain flying sites with tons of info:
Massive info on mountain flying (highly recommend -poke around the site, its really good)
Recommend routes AOPA
There are several other sites you can google. Keep in mind some of the best most experienced mountain flying pilots can't avoid a crash. Conditions can be severe enough to overcome the most capable plane and pilot.
Never give up hope, thoughts and prayers.
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RV6_flyer said:
There was a DIFFERENT crash a few days ago, I think it was up in the Northwest Gary - they found those folks.
Paul
n5lp
fugio ergo sum
National Park Service Efforts
Today I got a report about some of the efforts of the personel at Guadalupe Mountains National Park in this search. It is more than I would have expected.
During the afternoon of March 3rd and all day on the 4th and 5th, the park had people hiking all the trails and looking into drainages. A Department of Public Safety helicopter flew over the area for 6 to 7 hours on the 4th, with a ranger on board, looking into drainages.
The park has also posted fliers with pertinent information in hopes that visitors and hikers will be alert to anything unusual. There will be quite an influx of people during the upcoming spring break.
Efforts are hindered by the extremely rough terrain and the fact that many of the north-facing slopes still have knee-deep snow.
Now that I know that a helicopter, with its vastly better visibility and manuveurabilty has been flying the area that much, I feel a bit foolish flying around in my fast, low-wing airplane, but I was over there again yesterday checking out some areas based on some specific things a friend of the pilot told me.
A family member requested that someone fly the route from Pecos, Texas back toward El Paso, and Louise is planning to do that on Friday, weather permitting.
Also on Friday, there will likely be a ground search party looking closely at some spots in the area of the last radar contact.
Today I got a report about some of the efforts of the personel at Guadalupe Mountains National Park in this search. It is more than I would have expected.
During the afternoon of March 3rd and all day on the 4th and 5th, the park had people hiking all the trails and looking into drainages. A Department of Public Safety helicopter flew over the area for 6 to 7 hours on the 4th, with a ranger on board, looking into drainages.
The park has also posted fliers with pertinent information in hopes that visitors and hikers will be alert to anything unusual. There will be quite an influx of people during the upcoming spring break.
Efforts are hindered by the extremely rough terrain and the fact that many of the north-facing slopes still have knee-deep snow.
Now that I know that a helicopter, with its vastly better visibility and manuveurabilty has been flying the area that much, I feel a bit foolish flying around in my fast, low-wing airplane, but I was over there again yesterday checking out some areas based on some specific things a friend of the pilot told me.
A family member requested that someone fly the route from Pecos, Texas back toward El Paso, and Louise is planning to do that on Friday, weather permitting.
Also on Friday, there will likely be a ground search party looking closely at some spots in the area of the last radar contact.
David Johnson
Well Known Member
Larry-
Thanks so much for keeping this thread up to date with the activities. Can't stop thinking about this guy, and it's nice to be kept in the loop on the efforts. Wish I lived close enough to be of more help.
Dave
Thanks so much for keeping this thread up to date with the activities. Can't stop thinking about this guy, and it's nice to be kept in the loop on the efforts. Wish I lived close enough to be of more help.
Dave
n5lp
fugio ergo sum
Unfortunately, Tom, who had planned a ground search for tomorrow, 3/16 was not able to come up with the minimum number of people he thought necessary so that is delayed until at least April 6.
Louise is still planning on flying a course from Pecos, TX to Marana, AZ tomorrow.
Mr. Willess' son, Brian has set up a website at http://find_jim.willess.com dealing with search efforts.
Jan, the Chief Ranger at Guadalupe Mountains National Park is continuing with her efforts.
Louise is still planning on flying a course from Pecos, TX to Marana, AZ tomorrow.
Mr. Willess' son, Brian has set up a website at http://find_jim.willess.com dealing with search efforts.
Jan, the Chief Ranger at Guadalupe Mountains National Park is continuing with her efforts.
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CAP Search Procedures
I understand fellow aviator's frustation when the Civil Air Patrol requests that untrained personnel not participate in searches, but it is really for everyone's safety. We are taught, and we train regularly, the proper techniques for searching for downed aircraft. Only Mission Pilots trained in mountain flying are allowed to fly in mountainous grids. Our normal mission profile is a crew of three flying a high wing aircraft at 90 kts and 1,000 feet agl. The Mission Pilot operates the aircraft safely while the Observer and Scanner look out each side of the aircraft. A normal grid is 7.5 nm by 7.5 nm and takes approximately 40 minutes to search. The grid is searched either N/S or E/W legs with 1 mile spacing in between. Coordination is required with as many CAP aircraft that were flying from Carlsbad. You need to know how to get to your grid, what obstructions are in the grid, are there any adjacent grids that are hot (you don't want to encounter aluminum showers). Over 7,000 square miles of Texas and New Mexico were meticously searched (and some high probability areas multiple times).
The trick with searching is not how fast you can fly across the terrain (180-190 kts in a low wing aircraft does not lend itself very well to identifying objects on the ground) but how thorough you can search.
Bob
I understand fellow aviator's frustation when the Civil Air Patrol requests that untrained personnel not participate in searches, but it is really for everyone's safety. We are taught, and we train regularly, the proper techniques for searching for downed aircraft. Only Mission Pilots trained in mountain flying are allowed to fly in mountainous grids. Our normal mission profile is a crew of three flying a high wing aircraft at 90 kts and 1,000 feet agl. The Mission Pilot operates the aircraft safely while the Observer and Scanner look out each side of the aircraft. A normal grid is 7.5 nm by 7.5 nm and takes approximately 40 minutes to search. The grid is searched either N/S or E/W legs with 1 mile spacing in between. Coordination is required with as many CAP aircraft that were flying from Carlsbad. You need to know how to get to your grid, what obstructions are in the grid, are there any adjacent grids that are hot (you don't want to encounter aluminum showers). Over 7,000 square miles of Texas and New Mexico were meticously searched (and some high probability areas multiple times).
The trick with searching is not how fast you can fly across the terrain (180-190 kts in a low wing aircraft does not lend itself very well to identifying objects on the ground) but how thorough you can search.
Bob
OldAndBold
Well Known Member
Joining CAP on Tuesday...
I decided after reading this thread and since I would be working on the RV for a long time yet and not flying, I might as well join up with CAP and get some time in an airplane, even if it is just as an observer. I will be joining at the next meeting on Tuesday.
John Babrick
Grand Rapids MI
RV-7A empennage about to rivet the HS and VS.
I decided after reading this thread and since I would be working on the RV for a long time yet and not flying, I might as well join up with CAP and get some time in an airplane, even if it is just as an observer. I will be joining at the next meeting on Tuesday.
John Babrick
Grand Rapids MI
RV-7A empennage about to rivet the HS and VS.
OldAndBold
Well Known Member
How many units were involved?
Bob -
Do you know how many units participated in this search? From how far away will CAP call for search crews? Several states or just the local units?
JCB
r_manning said:
Bob -
Do you know how many units participated in this search? From how far away will CAP call for search crews? Several states or just the local units?
JCB
CAP Search
There were aircraft from more than one state searching. I was in Carlsbad. There were approximately 20 CAP aircraft in Carlsbad searching during the heighth of the activity. Mine my have been the most distant crew. We came KDWH (Hooks Airport) in Houston.
If someone wants to start participating in searches, join your nearest CAP squadron. The Civil Air Patrol (U.S. Air Force Auxiliary) has three missions: Emergency Services, Aerospace Education, and Cadet Programs. You don't have to be a pilot to join. In fact, I know many members who want nothing to do with flying, but contribute as ground team members.
Bob
There were aircraft from more than one state searching. I was in Carlsbad. There were approximately 20 CAP aircraft in Carlsbad searching during the heighth of the activity. Mine my have been the most distant crew. We came KDWH (Hooks Airport) in Houston.
If someone wants to start participating in searches, join your nearest CAP squadron. The Civil Air Patrol (U.S. Air Force Auxiliary) has three missions: Emergency Services, Aerospace Education, and Cadet Programs. You don't have to be a pilot to join. In fact, I know many members who want nothing to do with flying, but contribute as ground team members.
Bob
n5lp
fugio ergo sum
Bob,r_manning said:
Is there any way for us locals to get any of this information? It might help us.
We fully recognize that we don't have the equipment and organization to search the way CAP does. We do have local knowledge and experience and aren't willing to just drop the matter.
Some things we are doing are at the request of the family and are not hard for us to do. Some other things are based on ideas that a very smart guy, with experience in the field, has come up with.
At any rate, I don't think we are hurting anyone. We stayed away while CAP was here, we fly anyway and are experienced mountain flyers and are very familiar with the area, and some family members and friends have indicated that they appreciate, our admittedly, small efforts.
Lastly, if I would ever go down, I would sure want you guys up looking for me. I appreciate the work you do very much.
CAP Search
Every mission should have either an Information Officer or a Public Affairs Officer who will provide information to the media and concerned citizens. They are usually at the mission base (which was Cavern City Airport - Carlsbad, NM) for that mission. Air and Ground Teams are not allowed to talk about ongoing missions and are supposed to direct all inquiries to the IO/PIO.
Bob
Every mission should have either an Information Officer or a Public Affairs Officer who will provide information to the media and concerned citizens. They are usually at the mission base (which was Cavern City Airport - Carlsbad, NM) for that mission. Air and Ground Teams are not allowed to talk about ongoing missions and are supposed to direct all inquiries to the IO/PIO.
Bob
sportpilot
Well Known Member
n5lp said:
In my opinion A local pilot out for a joy ride has just as much chance as an organized search, although it dosent look to hopeful this long after he went missing. Local ultralight pilots not afraid to chug along at 7000 feet at 45 mph have a better chance than a Skylane at 130 kts. I was in the CAP at Atlanta GA and we had a similar problem with folks trying to cross over the Smokies from Tennessee or Virginia. It was a regular thing for us. We used a 150 super cub, but the more eyes on the ground the better no matter what plane you fly. Just my opinion.
CAP Search
That must have been quite a few years back. CAP has mostly C-172s and C-182s and we fly our search patterns at 90 kts to increase our probability of detection. CAP has made great strides to get past the days of the "good old boy" flying club. I would disagree that any pilot out looking has just as good a chance of finding downed aircraft. We are taught what patterns to look for for the different ground conditions, and that crashed aircraft rarely look like aircraft. Very rarely do we find a plane intact with the pilot sitting on the wing firing flares to get our attention.
Also, we fly Homeland Defense and disaster relief missions. Congress has finally discovered how cost effective our trained personnel are, and are looking for ways to employ our skills in patrolling the borders.
Bob
That must have been quite a few years back. CAP has mostly C-172s and C-182s and we fly our search patterns at 90 kts to increase our probability of detection. CAP has made great strides to get past the days of the "good old boy" flying club. I would disagree that any pilot out looking has just as good a chance of finding downed aircraft. We are taught what patterns to look for for the different ground conditions, and that crashed aircraft rarely look like aircraft. Very rarely do we find a plane intact with the pilot sitting on the wing firing flares to get our attention.
Also, we fly Homeland Defense and disaster relief missions. Congress has finally discovered how cost effective our trained personnel are, and are looking for ways to employ our skills in patrolling the borders.
Bob
