wirejock
Well Known Member
Stocks
Hmmm. Sounds interesting.
Van, I would be happy to invest…
Hmmm. Sounds interesting.
Van, I would be happy to invest…
SNIP
That's how we've arrived at where we are today. It's not a pricing issue, it's a cash flow issue caused by the decisions they made (LCP) in order to try and reduce the lead times.
Van, I would be happy to invest…
Hmmm. Sounds interesting.
Van, I would be happy to invest…
This is not a dying business in search of new mythical customer base , just issues related to mismanagement - given proper corrective actions this should be just a painful but transitory period.
It's not a cost / revenue problem. Anyone can calculate margins and set a price. It's very simple math: work out what it costs to build, add your overheards and add your margin to reach a selling price.
It's a cash flow problem. Van's is a fundamentally profitable business that ran out of cash and became unable to pay its staff (the meeting was to furlough many of them) or its suppliers.
That's me, minus the "strong" adjective. This is primarily why, personally, I would not put my money forward; I don't understand finance and I feel fortunate to be able to cling to what I have.Folks saying this or similar are, I'm sorry to say, probably strong on their aero/engineering knowledge and short on accountancy.
I have had a Vans kit or aircraft since 1993. Never has there been anything like this. Van always managed with controlled growth and solid performance. In a world of many kit manufacturers coming and going, Vans has been rock solid. Being transparent in this situation makes me think they will work through this situation. High rates of growth can often lead to cash flow issues.
I bet the RV-15 development and for that matter any new development projects get put on hold.
I’m rooting for Vans team.
Some of us that are retired and do some stock investing would buy Van's Aircraft stock if it went public.
Van, I would be happy to invest…
YEP!......
Originally Posted by RV6_flyer
Some of us that are retired and do some stock investing would buy Van's Aircraft stock if it went public.
I suspect the team of advisors are bankruptcy experts, especially given the no refunds and no shipping of parts etc. It seems like a company in need of protection from creditors and I guess that's good. It make me kind of sad that Van and his wife are burning through cash to keep it afloat.
I don't think the company goes under. I think they reorganize. But it's going to cost of lot of people their jobs and the price of kits is going to go way up.
Fortunately, I've got all the parts I need and should be able to get the RV-12iS done with a minimum of hassle but I do feel bad for those people just getting started.
I suspect they may have to retrench - maybe put the RV-15 project in mothballs -- and try to make it with the popular kits they've already.
we'll see.
The closest thing I remember to this is Stoddard Hamilton, which went bankrupt not long after introducing the Glastar. Eventually all the various licensing deals were unwound, a buyer was found for each model and the plane's are stil around. Stoddard Hamilton is gone.
Some of us go back at least to 1987.
Agree that the company has been rock solid and will continue into the future the same way.
Some of us that are retired and do some stock investing would buy Van's Aircraft stock if it went public.
Having been involved in "turnarounds" where a solid organizations were being written off by some, I FIRMLY believe that solutions will be found.
Sometimes, someone with a different "view" can make a world of difference.
Sometimes, simply some tough short term decisions have to be made.
But when you have great products, great people, great customers and great suppliers, there are solutions (yes plural) out there.
I am confident that Van's will find them and be back on track sooner than most believe.
In their corner like most, cheering them on!
It's a pretty easily solved problem, raise prices- the demand is exceeding supply, quality is suffering- so raise the prices
Price discovery will follow, and everything will fall back in line
For those of you who have completed/finished RV's, your value will go up if the cost to build goes up
A possible solution might be to take the company public and issue stock through an initial public offering (IPO). I’m sure these “experts” they’ve hired will look at this. Goodness knows there is a significant number of Vans owners out here that a ready market for their stock exists.
I've been worried about this for a while now. With over a thousand customers affected by the laser-cut fiasco, this was inevitable.
Take me, for example. I was about to drop $20-$25k on the final fuselage payment in December, but now I have stopped building since July, and I have no ETA when I will be able to continue building. Once I continue building, I'll need to start over on the rudder, VS, and elevators.
In other words, 98% of the revenue I was going to give to Van's over the next 12 months has been deferred at least 12 months. I'm sure I'm not the only one stuck on my build and therefore NOT buying kits.
I've been worried about this for a while now. With over a thousand customers affected by the laser-cut fiasco, this was inevitable.
KitPlanes article says the number of customers affected is 1800…. First time I’ve seen a number attached to this LCP issue. That’s even more than I had thought. Unfortunately I’m one of the 1800. I’m dead in the water right now unsure when I’ll be able to get going again.
With 10000 vans kits out there $100 pledge would yield $1000000 operating capital….of course you would never get everyone to do this but ultimately they are in trouble from bad or unlucky decisions…..and we may not have the ability to finish or support our aircraft in the future. Perhaps it’s now become our responsibility to help the company survive should we wish them to remain solvent.
So what if Van's gets bought by outside investors, even the Chinese? That hasn't killed Cirrus or Continental. In fact, the huge cash infusion to both has been a net positive IMO.
The new CEO sounds like just the guy for the job.
Didn't work out too well for Glasair:
And the new CEO of Van's is the one who arranged the sale of Glasair to the Chinese.
IPOs are not the banking vehicle used to rescue a troubled businesses.
The accounting, banking and legal costs are likely more this business is worth and you need the time to organize it for the SEC
Just spent some time talking Vans with a friend who works for one of the big accounting firms in corporate finance. I asked him to watch the video and read the statement. He helped reassure me and had some insight to what Vans might be doing. At his firm they have a Rapid Business Improvement team . How it works, is the business basically shuts down for a few weeks, they come in, evaluate all aspects and tell you what is wrong and HOW to fix it quickly. He said this is very common when “ good businesses “ mismanage a crisis and get into cash flow issues because of it. He felt this is probably the correct move to stop the bleeding, adjust, and keep the company solvent. They had to help many companies that handled pandemic problems wrong. Anyhow, feeling more encouraged about the future. . ��
For those who have followed Vans Aircraft for longer than I, is this the most significantly worrisome financial event in the companies history?