Business Announcement From Van's Founder Dick Vangrunsven

[jimbom]

This just shows how blind some people are to the extent of the problem. Many people have completed kit(s) or quick builds in which you may not even know which parts are LC or not. To tear them apart and rebuild them would take 1000’s of hours and most likely weaken the structure. It’s not just a financial issue.

Exactly!
The money is not the issue. With the empennage kit almost done, I suspect I have LCP inside, but have not confirmed it. I'm at a standstill and am not even sure what to do about it. Not inclined to de-rivet structure and replace parts based on suspicion.

 

[ccarlson]

Here is what I don't get about all the stomach churning.

Let say you have to replace all these LCP parts on your own dime. It may end up costing you $1000. Probably very conservative on my part but it's the quick math I want to convey.

So if you are a fast builder and you can build your 14A in 5 years. It's a big if because you are making 0% progress at the moment.

So the $1000 that you pay now compare to the cost to build the 14A. Assuming the cost to build is $200K. The cost of replacement of your LCP is 0.5% of the total cost of your completed airplane.

If you spread the cost of $1000 extra for 60 months, then it comes out to be $16.7 per month, neglecting the effect of inflation. It costs you more to buy a BigMac / month than the cost that you have to pay to replace your LCP parts. This is also about the cost for 4 Starbuck coffee a month.

If you account for the fuel burn of 12 gal/hour with the big block IO390 engine, it will take about 15 hours for you to spend $1000 of 100LL. This is only 37.5% of the fuel burn that you have to burn during your phase 1 testing.

So the $1000 is a drop in the bucket for the build given what you have to spend in extra if you, if you aren't perfectionist, make mistakes and have to reorder parts that you make mistakes on. I haven't seen a first time builder who build a perfect trim tab the first time around.

I personally spent over $3000 on my canopy booboo. I spend over $2500 to replace the AvMap POS efis on my own dime with the Garmin G5. I paid more money to replace avionics parts out of warranty. The point is you will be spending a lot more money than you think yet people are belling aching about a such small percentage and they made zero progress. Yet they call themselves builder. Sorry but I am not convince

Summary:

$1000 LCP = 4 Starbuck coffee/month = 1 Bigmac/month

This is the scale that people for months are having belly ache on.

Right. FWIW, I totally understand the math & for reference, my LCP exposure is not $1000. It is $4,430. With tax and shipping, it will easily cost over $5,000 to correct. If it were $1,000 I might feel a bit differently. I also understand the various "-abilities" associated with using known cracked parts.

If I make mistakes and damage parts, then the cost of remediation is fully on me. In this case, I did no such thing. The parts delivered to me did not conform to what I agreed to purchase, and they cracked repeatedly when I attempted to use them. I purchased several replacements after the first batch cracked. The replacements - also LC - cracked as well.

Van's asked builders to stop building while they evaluated the situation. So I did. While I waited, I consulted with aerospace engineers, an FAA safety manager, an NTSB accident investigator, and an aviation legal service to help understand the big picture of what the use of cracked parts might mean.

We each choose how to spend our time and treasure. I have done the math, and I am doing what I think is best for me and mine.

I said I want to build, I did not say I was in a hurry to build (though I have chomped on the bit and while seeking things I can do ad interim). I waited 25 years to get to this point. I can wait a little longer (mid-Nov) to see how Van's intends to address the matter.

In the meantime, I own a Cherokee 180 that satisfies my desire to fly (~200 hrs /yr), and I have access to 5 build projects (4 RV, 1 Zenith) which satisfy my desire to build while Van's navigates this matter toward some as-yet-unknown destination.

 

[Tlrguy]

Money is definitely not the issue and it’s pretty clear that all the naysayers have no idea the extent or impact of this snafu.

 

[ccarlson]

OK, attempted thread shift off LCPs and back to the Vans business.

Pondering how a free market would respond if Vans stopped doing QB kits.
Us old guys remember the Phlogiston spars from years ago.
Buyer ordered the -3 and -4 kit parts, had them shipped to Phlogiston who then treated and assembled the spars. Or the guy in Redding CA (I think) that did tank assemblies.

Wonder if an after market could develop for QB entrepreneurs?
I for one would welcome a QB tank build.
Thou also wonder if it would be too expensive to do business in the US.
I would be a little leery of sending parts out of Country for assembly.

Just more pondering while waiting.

In an earlier post, someone suggested spinning off QBs to a separate business entity. Admittedly, I have no idea what that would look like, but it seemed like an interesting idea on the surface. It could be a way for Van's to insulate themselves from QB risks, and it could also allow them to get back to the "simpler" business path that worked well for ages while keeping costs lower for SBs. I don't think this would address part production rates, though, unless the QB entity tooled up to (mostly) support itself with parts production.

 

[Mike S]

I would like to remind a few folks of the posting rules. https://vansairforce.net/rules.htm. I don’t enjoy locking down a person’s account, but if those keep abusing the posting rules I will. I don’t enjoy it.

There are millions of places online where you can type anything you want. This place isn’t one of them.

Thank you and kindest,
dr

Just another random reminder........

 

[AeroEngineer]

The number of people who are willing to pay a premium to have a "Lego/Ikea" build experience seems to be higher than the number of people who can only afford a less sophisticated old-school kit.

I still don't understand this sort of condescension towards builders who didn't mine their own ore and smelt the metal to roll out aluminum sheets themselves, like I'm sure you must have done. Probably felled your own timber when you built your house, too, I imagine.

I meant no condescension. I too am among the people who would pay more to have to do less work. I am a huge fan of Lego and Ikea products, I meant that comparison to be a positive one. They are very easy to build thanks to impressive manufacturing tolerances and to equally impressive instruction manuals. Life is short; I would prefer (if possible) to not spend time drilling holes or figuring out the best order in which to accomplish all the things in a drawing! I think that one of the most impressive things about Van's is that they get close to Lego/Ikea building simplicity, but they thing you're building is an AIRPLANE. Isn't that amazing? I think it is.

 

[PhatRV]

Right. FWIW, I totally understand the math & for reference, my LCP exposure is not $1000. It is $4,430. With tax and shipping, it will easily cost over $5,000 to correct.

I think you are adding all the LCP parts, and not just the parts that Vans recommend you to replace. I would love to see you post the list of parts that are needed to be replaced. Because I suspect you are adding all the LCP parts in your calculation.

My point earlier is you want an airplane that has zero LCP parts instead of a "safe" airplane deemed by Vans with acceptable LCP. This is where the unreasonable aspect of the argument is from. In the aerospace industry where I work, there is nothing like a perfect part. All parts have tolerance for defects, installation errors, etc. When we find them, we do the analysis and if they are safe to use, we sign them off and use them. I've had a multi-million spacecraft part that someone dropped on the floor and after testing, it worked and we flew it into space. Nobody is going to throw away a multi-million good part even it was dropped and had visible dents.

You said "The parts delivered to me did not conform to what I agreed to purchase". What did you agree? In the aerospace / aircraft work, we conform to the safe and successful operation. So my earlier comment about you just don't want any LCP part at all is still true, even if it is safe. Airplane company, kit or certify, standard is a safe and airworthy airplane. Even the airliners don't throw away parts when Boeing and Airbus deem they are safe.

There are a lot of banter about future value of the airplane. I feel for them. But that is not about engineering. It is about investment. I don't think Vans promise any future RONI, at least not to me. I know for my case, when I purchased the kit years ago, the expectation was a very negative RONI. I never expect to recoup the cost of my RV8, ever. If I buy a house in Socal in 2006 at the peak and the price crash in 2008, the negative RONI is on me. I had my share of negative investments in my lifetime so I know how demoralizing it is. Again I don't think Vans or any kit company promises a positive RONI.

Now here is what I think either your fear and the unaccepting of LCP part is on the irrational side. You say you are happy to fly your Cherokee 180. I love flying it too since it is my main club rental while building. But from the engineering perspective, the RVs are so much less risky than ALL the Cherokees, because, the Cherokee wing spars are known to CRACK and people had died when they failed. It was so bad that the FAA was close to mandate all the Cherokee wings to be removed for inspection. Your N8ML is basically flying on borrow time because fatigue will eventually affect the wing spars. All it takes is time. I know the mandate inspection when it's 6000 hours and above. I may not have the numbers exact but yeah, given a choice between flying a safe RV with LCP parts, versus a 50 years old Cherokee N8ML with known deadly defects, I take the RV.

 

[ccarlson]

I think you are adding all the LCP parts, and not just the parts that Vans recommend you to replace. I would love to see you post the list of parts that are needed to be replaced. Because I suspect you are adding all the LCP parts in your calculation.

My point earlier is you want an airplane that has zero LCP parts instead of a "safe" airplane deemed by Vans with acceptable LCP. This is where the unreasonable aspect of the argument is from. In the aerospace industry where I work, there is nothing like a perfect part. All parts have tolerance for defects, installation errors, etc. When we find them, we do the analysis and if they are safe to use, we sign them off and use them. I've had a multi-million spacecraft part that someone dropped on the floor and after testing, it worked and we flew it into space. Nobody is going to throw away a multi-million good part even it was dropped and had visible dents.

You said "The parts delivered to me did not conform to what I agreed to purchase". What did you agree? In the aerospace / aircraft work, we conform to the safe and successful operation. So my earlier comment about you just don't want any LCP part at all is still true, even if it is safe. Airplane company, kit or certify, standard is a safe and airworthy airplane. Even the airliners don't throw away parts when Boeing and Airbus deem they are safe.

There are a lot of banter about future value of the airplane. I feel for them. But that is not about engineering. It is about investment. I don't think Vans promise any future RONI, at least not to me. I know for my case, when I purchaed the kit years ago, the expectation was a very negative RONI. I never expect to recoup the cost of my RV8, ever. If I buy a house in Socal in 2006 at the peak and the price crash in 2008, the negative RONI is on me. I had my share of negative investments in my lifetime.

Now here is what I think either your fear and the unaccepting of LCP part is on the irrational side. You say you are happy to fly your Cherokee 180. I love flying it too since it is my main club rental while building. But from the engineering perspective, the RVs are so much less risky than ALL the Cherokees, because, the Cherokee wing spars are known to CRACK and people had died when they failed. It was so bad that the FAA was close to mandate all the Cherokee wings to be removed for inspection. Your N8ML is basically flying on borrow time because fatigue will eventually affect the wing spars. All it takes is time. I know the mandate inspection when it's 6000 hours and above. I may not have the numbers exact but yeah, given a choice between flying a safe RV with LCP parts, versus a 50 years old Cherokee N8ML with known deadly defects, I take the RV.

I have been very clear on this all along. I am indeed including all of my affected parts in the calculation. I have not said or suggested otherwise. There are 122 red/yellow parts that prevent me from building right now. Then, there are 195 blue/green parts that Van's suggests are okay. And yes, I do want all 317 replaced because I paid for the punched parts Van's marketed, extolled as a virtue, and sold me when I bought my kits. That is entirely reasonable from a commercial standpoint; however, my decision is driven not by money but rather by several expert opinions from the sources I noted previously.

You may not agree with me, and that is fine, but my rationale is sound and expertly informed.

Not that it is relevant (at all), but your data on the Cherokee is flawed. N8ML is a PA-28-180, S/N 28-7205259. I have owned and operated it for nearly 11 years. Its wings are not subject to the fatal flaw that brought down three airplanes out of a fleet of over 34,000 over the span of 63 years.

 

[Richard Connell]

This is a truly terrible situation all around.
Having been involved in 4 RV builds starting almost 35y ago, I’ve seen Vans gradually improve to be the greatest kit manufacturer of all time.
I feel terrible for all those caught up in it.
Mercifully I only have a small dog in this fight but I think everyone needs to realize that the only way this is getting resolved is a process by which everyone compromises.
Current builders, LCP guys, employees, investors, creditors, subcontractors existing owner builders, purchasers of flying aircraft, avionics and engine vendors etc - all have a stake.
I see a lot of strong opinions, firmly held here which isn’t going to result in a solution.
We have a saying at work -“everybody gets what nobody wants”

I have no doubt Van will try to make this process as equitable as possible, but the sheer number and variety of those affected means that very few people will be truly happy. Everyone needs to compromise for the greater good and be at peace with it.
Fingers crossed for everyone.

 

[Cessnadog]

Exactly!
The money is not the issue. With the empennage kit almost done, I suspect I have LCP inside, but have not confirmed it. I'm at a standstill and am not even sure what to do about it. Not inclined to de-rivet structure and replace parts based on suspicion.

I am in the same boat with my empennage. Honestly, your problem isn’t all that bad. I am going to rebuild my rudder, elevator and vertical stab. There are a couple more parts in the tail cone that are easy to get to and should be a couple of evenings worth of work. I have priced the non-laser cut parts and it is a few hundred $$. Not worth losing sleep over to be sure of what I have.

I also figure that all of those control surfaces will be easier to build and better built the second time. I’m better builder now than I was then.

 

[joer308]

hard to argue with 'sound and expertly informed'.....

 

[PhatRV]

Then, there are 195 blue/green parts that Van's suggests are okay. And yes, I do want all 317 replaced because I paid for the punched parts Van's marketed, extolled as a virtue, and sold me when I bought my kits..

I think you are conflating a little bit. You bought the kit sold by Vans; unless there is a contract that stated that everything is 100% punched press, which there isn't. You get matched hole kit. Even then, sometime, we found the holes aren't matched hole. Like I said, manufacturing tolerance is a part of manufacturing. We called Vans tech and if Vans says it is safe we build on.

The "virtue" is your finished airplane made by your skilled labor. With an unskilled labor, it will look like crud, punch press holes, LCP or not. As matter of fact, there are plenty of award winner experimental airplanes that were build without any punch press hole, they started life as drawings on paper plans.

You have to be realistic when you decide to build. You have to take that risk. If you are a perfectionist, then open your credit card because you are going to make a lot of mistakes, and you are going to reorder parts a lot. You may not ever finish. I have personally seen perfectionist selling his kit just to be able to sleep better. At least he took inventory of the mental tax of building and said it wasn't for him. No tandrum, no whining, no complaining incessantly, he took his lump. As I said before, you can always sell the kit and fly your Cherokee.

 

[jimbom]

I am in the same boat with my empennage. Honestly, your problem isn’t all that bad ... Not worth losing sleep over...

I also figure that all of those control surfaces will be easier to build and better built the second time. I’m better builder now than I was then.

All very good points. I suppose tail feathers could be replaced any time in the future, even after the plane is in service.

It's wait and see on the QB wing I've received, but that isn't holding things up at this point.

 

[ccarlson]

I think you are conflating a little bit. You bought the kit sold by Vans; unless there is a contract that stated that everything is 100% punched press, which there isn't. You get matched hole kit. Even then, sometime, we found the holes aren't matched hole. Like I said, manufacturing tolerance is a part of manufacturing. We called Vans tech and if Vans says it is safe we build on.

The "virtue" is your finished airplane made by your skilled labor. With an unskilled labor, it will look like crud, punch press holes, LCP or not. As matter of fact, there are plenty of award winner experimental airplanes that were build without any punch press hole, they started life as drawings on paper plans.

You have to be realistic when you decide to build. You have to take that risk. If you are a perfectionist, then open your credit card because you are going to make a lot of mistakes, and you are going to reorder parts a lot. You may not ever finish. I have personally seen perfectionist selling his kit just to be able to sleep better. At least he took inventory of the mental tax of building and said it wasn't for him. No tandrum, no whining, no complaining incessantly, he took his lump. As I said before, you can always sell the kit and fly your Cherokee.

No conflation at all. As I said, you may not agree with me. I am okay with that. This is my build. I am engineer. I know things and make stuff. Fortunately, one of the things I know is to not to let perfect get in the way of done.

https://www.vansaircraft.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/14FLY-e-02012019.pdf

"The RV-14 entered the world firmly establishing new standards in completeness and accuracy. With these improvements, many builders have completed RV-14s in significantly less time than our other ‘driven-rivet’ RVs – some even in less than one year! All of the aluminum components are formed and pre-punched with all the rivet and bolt holes already in place and final-sized. The “matched-hole” punching technology makes the airframe essentially self-jigging: when you insert cleco clamps and all the holes line up, you know the airframe is straight."

I intend to build my RV-14A and fly my Cherokee. Not one or the other, but both.

 

[RV8JD]

It's time to put this thread out of its misery ... PLEASE! It's just repeating what has already been said umpteen times on all the other LCP threads.

 

[Cessnadog]

Sorry, you are grasping at straws here.
Not all the parts are formed. You will have to form parts. Not all the parts are punched (or drilled) you will have to drill many parts. Not all the parts are punched final sized. You will get plenty of practice at that.

The document you are quoting is not a list of specifications. It is speaking in generalities vs previous kits.

No conflation at all. As I said, you may not agree with me. I am okay with that. This is my build. I am engineer. I know things and make stuff. Fortunately, one of the things I know is to not to let perfect get in the way of done.

https://www.vansaircraft.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/14FLY-e-02012019.pdf

"The RV-14 entered the world firmly establishing new standards in completeness and accuracy. With these improvements, many builders have completed RV-14s in significantly less time than our other ‘driven-rivet’ RVs – some even in less than one year! All of the aluminum components are formed and pre-punched with all the rivet and bolt holes already in place and final-sized. The “matched-hole” punching technology makes the airframe essentially self-jigging: when you insert cleco clamps and all the holes line up, you know the airframe is straight."

I intend to build my RV-14A and fly my Cherokee. Not one or the other, but both.

 

[PCHunt]

It's time to put this thread out of its misery ... PLEASE! It's just repeating what has already been said umpteen times on all the other LCP threads.

Ten thumbs up!
OTOH, I guess you really don't have to read the thread....
Hard for me to stay away, but enough is enough for me.

 

[ccarlson]

Sorry, you are grasping at straws here.
Not all the parts are formed. You will have to form parts. Not all the parts are punched (or drilled) you will have to drill many parts. Not all the parts are punched final sized. You will get plenty of practice at that.

The document you are quoting is not a list of specifications. It is speaking in generalities vs previous kits.

The reference was not made with regard to forming or drilling parts. The referenced document is marketing material that clearly specifies a particular manufacturing method (punching) and its benefits, one of which is relative build time reduction. That reduction is promoted as a key product feature. Changing the manufacturing method to laser cutting resulted in dimple cracking, cracking led to lots of filing, and filing adds a lot of time and results in enlarged holes. In other words, laser cutting resulted in a fundamentally different product than the one that was promoted for sale.

Based on several conversations I’ve had with other builders (CAUTION: Speculation Ahead), I suspect what I just described is likely to be a not insignificant factor in what Van’s has been dealing with these past few months, and I further suspect the issue may have accelerated after the Sep 25 update when it became clear that Van’s might be walking back their earlier promise to replace LCP upon request at no charge.

 

[DeltaRomeo]

Closing time.

A mashup of Pareto principle, Godwin’s law, and doom-scrolling has found its way into this thread, and it has harshened my mellow, man.

I closed it. Too many folks in this thing seeing how far they can bend the rules. It’s tiring on me, and unfair to the mods who volunteer their limited free time.

Van, who has absolutely earned it, asked for two weeks. Hopefully we will get an update mid November. If you need to scream from the mountaintops there are millions of other places online.

When we get an update from the factory, it will get posted I’m guessing within a nanosecond. All the people who wanted to voice their opinions have had an opportunity. Some of the replies were jaw-droppingly cogent, logical, and written better than I ever could hope to. I learned things about business. Other replies not so much.

If you would like to email me your complaint, I promise I will read it. Send it via email.

Building airplanes is hard, and the brutal reality is that most of those who start won’t finish. Setbacks, sometimes large setbacks, sometimes insurmountable, life-changing setbacks, are the norm. Welcome to what could be considered the best, and hardest, of hobbies. Not to mention one of the most personally satisfying if the cosmic tumblers align.

It’s not for everyone. Not for most, to be truthful.

To the amazing RV builders that stick it out, and put up with me and my draconian rules, you complete me. You had me at hello.

To the colorful few that will never be happy, that want to see the world burn, that think I am the antichrist for enforcing the posting rules in my own living room, I would like to subscribe to your newsletter.

It’s not lost on me the irony of some folks using these forums to complain about Van’s cash flow - posting on a site that currently requires its owner/founder to work two additional part-time jobs to stay in the black.