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Are you guys feeling the pinch?

OT

I'm waiting for big ticket homebuilder (engines, avionics) sales to slow and for ECI to have a sale in the next few months....:)

An interesting indicator would be the ratio of Vans QB to Standard kit sales.. if a builder wanted to save $$, that would seem an obvious way to go...

gil A
 
Way back when........

az_gila said:
I'm waiting for big ticket homebuilder (engines, avionics) sales to slow and for ECI to have a sale in the next few months....:)

An interesting indicator would be the ratio of Vans QB to Standard kit sales.. if a builder wanted to save $$, that would seem an obvious way to go...

gil A
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Way back when I started, Van's may have had the QB as an option, but it was not an option for me due to lack of finances.

If things get tighter, some things will go up, and some will go down.

Sounds allot like Aviation, it's been that way for a long time.

In 76, or was it 77, Cessna sold more single engine aircraft then ever.

Does anyone remember what happened the next few years after that?

I look at it this way, before the biggest waves come in, the water recedes the farthest.

Don't over extend yourselves and stay flexible, there will be opportunities out there, they may not be what your used to, or trained to, or want to be doing, but they are out there.

Build on Brothers!:cool:
 
GAHco said:
Does anyone remember what happened the next few years after that?
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That was about the time I opened my first IRA with a guaranteed 11% annual return. I signed up for 8 years. The bank couldn't wait to get rid of me by the time the mid-80s rolled around. But that interest rate shows how quickly the worth of our money was disappearing.

The average mortgage rate in '84 was nearly 14%.

I think a lot of folks who've never lived through tough economic times have a difficult time understanding WHY the old-fashioned, Yankee (in my case) ways are important. The boom times have been booming for a long time. Old farts like me knew there would be a time to pay the piper. There's nothing wrong with hunkering down and weathering a storm.

I'm glad I'm not trying to get a company off the ground right now, tho.
 
I actually enjoy paying my charge card bill in full every month. I'm sure that it makes the card company nuts. Paying in full on your "no annual fee" card puts you a little ahead of the game. Collecting "points" of any kind is a bonus that the cash customer isn't going to see. Plus, you get to float on their money for a short time.
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Sam Buchanan said:
Guess what the banking industry calls those of us who pay off the cards each month.........Deadbeats!! :D
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And the banks say this with a scowl on their face even as they collect a percentage of the merchants profit when we use our charge card - what a racket.

I spent years building a good credit rating and all the banks seem interested in doing is trying to ruin it. I get an evil delight when we pay our charge card off in full every month, especially when I think of the times the bank wouldn't extend me credit when it was needed to develope the business - if they have no interest in increasing the pace of the growth of my business and taking a cut of it then I sure as heck don't have any interest in helping their bottom line either by any other means. Seems like the banks would rather make their money in shadier ways these days. I like a lot of Dave Ramsey's money management ideas and we generally live by the 'cash is king' philosophy, but we still use charge cards for the reasons stated above (and a couple of other financial tricks that would probably make Dave apoplectic but seem to work for us).

The financials are all in a world of hurt because of their reckless leveraged investment practices regarding the sub-prime lending debacle, and that is the crux of the current uncertainty about the economy. The question being: Can the rest of the economy absorb the mistakes that were made by the bankers? Made some good money in the market shorting the financials in the last several months. Sure wish I'd followed my instincts and jumped into the strategy with both feet, I'd be sitting in the catbird seat right now if I did (but that would have been reckless). Don't like to profit on someone elses stupidity, but in my opinion the Wall Street investment bankers that let their greed override their intellect had it coming.

I hope all of us don't have to bail these financial wizards out if their house of cards tumbles. I don't relish the idea of government garnishing (taxing) my investment income or wages any more to bail out Wall Street fat cats who have more greed than brains. It just seems incredibly crooked that the government would make me give back some of my profits to these fools because they were stupid.

Bottom line: Am I feeling the pinch? Yes, a bit, mostly because of fuel and food prices and a primary income that has stagnated for the last five years. I'm flying less (Arg!), and cutting back in other areas so I can continue to fly. Seems like a lot less activity at the airport these days too, so others are probably feeling the pinch a bit too, though many prideful pilots/aircraft owners probably won't admit it.
 
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Land of Oz

Here my business loan has just gone into double digits at 10.15%, and our 'fed' will probably increase rates again in the new year! The loan rate to me never got below 8.3% in the last decade, plus during our boom years we seemed to be in drought - what boom years? But, like many of the posts above, I work and live in the real world of reap and sow, not the virtual world of the stockmarket. Thus we live within our means and don't over extend ourselves. I think people who choose to build and fly an aircraft are not your normal person, and can sort the sh1t from clay re. the consumerist ****. We would rather mess about in the shed on Saturday night than go to a black tie dinner and hobnob. What does irk me is that if you or I stuff up we wear it, yet if you're a Big Business or financial market the government believes it has a moral duty to bail you out. Like all subsidies it will be pocketed as profit, by the same firms that have made squillions over the last few years and squandered it.

No more ranting Doug, I'm off to play with the dreaded fibreglass.

PS,. Sorry, one more, I believe the US Government will do whatever it takes, including war, to stop their economy going into recession. So the greenback is still a good bet.
 
Favorite Quote: Curb your Dogma

Life is great, two kids graduating from college and ONE HAS A JOB.

Wife and I just celebrated 25 years, some of them happy.

RV going together, move to hangar in January (I said that last month but I
mean it)

Work is fun and prospects are up to offset private school tuition and higher taxes.

Just had a wonderful shrimp po boy at lunch. Sorry but Louisiana has the best food. Nice people, too.

Oh is this the sections for random posts or what.

Back to building, I don't have all day to waste.

RV 7A Finishing
Lafayette, La.
 
Is the economy in the tank?

Is the economy in the tank? Well, let's see. Unemployment is at 5%, which most economists say is as low as it gets. Home interest rates are about 7%, which is also near the historic low. Inflation is up a little, running about 2%, but still close to historic norms. Oh, and the stock market, even with a recent 10% correction is still near an all time high.

The downside is that people in hyperinflated housing markets are having a hard time selling their house for a hyper-inflated price. And mortgage defaults are up due to stupid human tricks during the housing bubble. But the Fed is already taking steps to hold defaults to a manageable level.

All in all, compared to the Carter years, or even the post-tech-bubble years, I'd say we're living pretty high on the hog.

But anyone who happens to be a Democrat hoping to bounce the Republicans next year will tell you that we're tetering on the edge of econominc collapse.

It's all just politics.
 
jonbakerok said:
Is the economy in the tank? Well, let's see. Unemployment is at 5%, which most economists say is as low as it gets. Home interest rates are about 7%, which is also near the historic low. Inflation is up a little, running about 2%, but still close to historic norms. Oh, and the stock market, even with a recent 10% correction is still near an all time high.

The downside is that people in hyperinflated housing markets are having a hard time selling their house for a hyper-inflated price. And mortgage defaults are up due to stupid human tricks during the housing bubble. But the Fed is already taking steps to hold defaults to a manageable level.

All in all, compared to the Carter years, or even the post-tech-bubble years, I'd say we're living pretty high on the hog.

But anyone who happens to be a Democrat hoping to bounce the Republicans next year will tell you that we're tetering on the edge of econominc collapse.

It's all just politics.
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ditto

Oops - who said that?
 
It's not just politics, that's just the politicians and their supporters on both sides of the fence who are completely unable to get past their individual dogma and remember there are real people out there.

We're in a society that, no matter what the issue, looks to their political parties to see what they think before deciding what THEY should think.

Honestly, I don't know what half the people going to church every Sunday are doing there.

Politicians -- on both sides -- are completely out of touch with real people and so are 90% of their ardent followers. They wouldn't know a good day's work because they don't know what a good day's work is. They don't know what it's like to be a real person.

Why they get elevated to taking up so much our time and money is beyond me.

The problem is, it's all so simple. If everyone just looked after their neighbor... a whole lot of problems would be solved. But someone says they're having, for example, a tough time and the reaction from the folks not having a tough time is too often, "no, you're not." It's just crazy.



(/rant)
 
Bob Collins said:
It's not just politics, that's just the politicians and their supporters on both sides of the fence who are completely unable to get past their individual dogma and remember there are real people out there.

We're in a society that, no matter what the issue, looks to their political parties to see what they think before deciding what THEY should think.

Honestly, I don't know what half the people going to church every Sunday are doing there.

Politicians -- on both sides -- are completely out of touch with real people and so are 90% of their ardent followers. They wouldn't know a good day's work because they don't know what a good day's work is. They don't know what it's like to be a real person.

Why they get elevated to taking up so much our time and money is beyond me.

The problem is, it's all so simple. If everyone just looked after their neighbor... a whole lot of problems would be solved. But someone says they're having, for example, a tough time and the reaction from the folks not having a tough time is too often, "no, you're not." It's just crazy.



(/rant)
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Perhaps if everyone looked after their own family, and then their neighbor.

Reminds me Margaret Thatcher's much vilified quote:

"They're casting their problem on society. And, you know, there is no such thing as society. There are individual men and women, and there are families. And no government can do anything except through people, and people must look to themselves first. It's our duty to look after ourselves and then, also to look after our neighbour."
 
jsharkey said:
"They're casting their problem on society. And, you know, there is no such thing as society. There are individual men and women, and there are families. And no government can do anything except through people, and people must look to themselves first. It's our duty to look after ourselves and then, also to look after our neighbour."
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I often wonder how many folks even know their neighbors. Around here I usually clear snow from the neighbors' driveways. The neighbor on one side's husband just died of brain cancer so I figure she doesn't need to be worrying about the stinking snow.

A few weeks ago, some kids knocked down their mailbox, and then threw it on their porch. I spent about four hours building and installing a new one for them (and then stayed up half the night waiting for the little jerks to come back). No RV building that day but I did employ many skills I learned on the plane project.

The neighbor on the other side is just plain old, so I do her driveway. The last time I talked to her -- in the middle of snowblowing -- a couple of years ago. She screams, "Who ARE you?"

"I'm your neighbor," she said.

"Oh."

No, "thank you." Nuthin.

Yesterday I came across this story which I then wrote about. A computer glitch taking Christmas away from some of poorest kids in Minnesota. I figured, "OK, somebody will rise up in great mass and do something." But... nothing. I've got a small surplus left from the RV BBQ. I've sent it up to these kids.

It turns out that Toys For Tots donations are down SIGNFICANTLY. I checked around, they're down to about 25% of what they had last year.

People ARE hurting. Not everybody. But a lot of them. And it just makes me sick that I can't do more; that we all can't do more... especially when we can.

We, and in particular people in aviation, are so blessed and so lucky. We like to think, sometimes, that we're better off because we're smarter, or work harder, or were raised better. And perhaps that's part of it. But a big part of it is we're just plain lucky.
 
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Living beyond your means--its the modern American way!

We made our last car payment in 1970. Bought used cars, finally bought our first new vehicle in 1991. Paid cash. House is paid off & has been for about 10 years. Paid extra on the principle for several years to get that balance down and cut our interest cost. Bought our previous house in '78 at 9.75% and the market was booming, so where's the problem with 6% these days?. Built our present house in '92 and the rates were around 6% or a little more and the market was so hot we had trouble finding a contractor to build our place.

Our 37 year old kid, however, whose tuition we paid (I worked my way thru college, paying all expenses and carrying a full load because if I didn't I would get drafted--Vietnam, you know) took about 7 years to get a 4 year degree, partying for the first 3 (we cut off his tuition at 4 yrs.) is still paying on student loans 8 years after graduating, saves money only for his next trip to Russia--2 trips this year. And his is the generation that worries that Social Security won't be there for them. Well, what are they doing about it? Not much.

Sorry for the rant. Some of these posts hit a nerve.

Richard Scott
RV-9A Fuselage
 
Whatever Happended To...

Bob Collins said:
People ARE hurting. Not everybody. But a lot of them. And it just makes me sick that I can't do more; that we all can't do more... especially when we can.
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Bob, I don't mean to be argumentative as I understand what you are saying. On the other hand I respectfully disagree with the, "Help your neighbor" concept and the American notion of "hurting" these days.

I believe that charity should be a willingness on the part of the giver and not the expectation on the part of the receivers that it has become. Whatever happened to American "Rugged Individualism" and "Pull Yourself Up by Your Bootstraps" mentality. What has happened is the politics, movie stars, and media of the times have turned charity into a guilt trip and an attempt to assure equality of outcome for everyone. Sure there are poor people and needy people, always have been always will be. We aren't talking about the true needy and we know who they are. But frequently, the rants you hear about the "needy" are from people making sizable incomes who have overextended themselves and are looking for a bailout. You know, dual income families with 4 kids, a million dollar home, 2 dogs, 3 SUVs, a boat, a swimming pool, $50K in credit card debt, and $100K in student loans.

I am a teacher so you know my income. Ok if you don't I make $42K a year. Period! No incentives, no Christmas bonus. I work in a title one (read "poor") school. My customers are "economically disadvantaged" families who live in the $170K plus houses in the area - more than what my paid off house I bought 30 years ago on a 15 year fixed note is worth, by the way. They drop their kids off in Hummers and SUV's at six in the morning and we send them home on late busses at 4:45 PM. We feed them breakfast, lunch, and a snack after school. I confiscate IPODs and IFONs (sp) from these economically disadvantaged students wearing $100 plus sneakers daily because they aren't suppose to have them in school. When I ask my liberal administration why these folks are on free and reduced lunch I am told I shouldn't judge because poverty is about maintaining a facade and about priorities and about trying to get ahead. Poverty is no longer about struggling to exist it is about trying to get a piece of the pie and exist in a society largely made up of successful people. Poverty is no longer about being able to afford rent and buy food, it is about owning homes and luxuries and if cheating on an application to get a free $2.50 a day meal is what it takes to get ahead, then we shouldn't judge people for doing it. In summary, the internalized right of entitlement that we have talked about. What a bunch of bull!

So yes, maybe we "should" help our neighbors. But on the other hand, our neighbors should help themselves by not living beyond their means and needs. No amount of philanthropy or compassion will overcome stupidity. Who was it that said, "You can't legislate out stupidity?" I think what you are seeing is people saying, "Enough is enough!" Don't ask me to feel sorry for you because you have tons of debt that you really didn't need in the first place. Don't expect me to bail you out because you just had to live in San Francisco and decided to buy a $2M 2 bedroom flat that was never worth more than about $100K. You should have known better. Maybe you did, but you just thought it would continue to inflate and everything would be OK. OK you made a decision now live with it. I still donate to charities such as hospitals who help those who truly were handed an eight ball in life and had no control over it. I refuse to fall into the trap of giving to every charity that puts a hand out and every individual who falls on hard times and goes on the evening news.

Life throws us all kinds of curve balls. It used to be that when this happened (like when I lost my last job) people sucked it up and did what it takes. Now they go on the local news and whine about how unfair it is because they can't make a payment on their new SUV. Whatever happened to rugged individualism and taking care of your own? Whatever happened to pride and humility? Whatever happened to failing and starting over and rising to new heights? Whatever happened to the right to the pursuit of happiness that has become the right to covet and have whatever thy wants? When did it become the government's job to bail out every Tom, Dick, and Harry that makes bad business decisions or gets caught up in an economical cycle? It all began with the New Deal and has grown ever since into what has become the Great American Entitlement Rush. Our leaders have taught us that "failure is not an option," not because we can overcome anything, but because being an American means we are entitled to success. It is no wonder the rest of the world has such great disdain for we spoiled Americans. Our neighbors around the world just cannot understand all of the whining we do. And frankly I agree with them.

To those impacted by the current economic situation, I understand your pain. You will get through it. I went through it many times in the last 30 years - remember the bust in the IT boom and outsourcing? If your new car gets repossessed, get a used one. If you can't afford your ARM, rent a while and live and learn. I am empathetic to your situations but I am not sympathetic. If you have a ton of debt - so sorry, your choices or your circumstances created it. Get another job and pay it off. So what if you have to work 7 days a week for a year to pay it off. You will feel better about yourself for doing it. If your industry is hurting - so sorry, you must balance the bad with the good you have had in the past. As for me, I am just fine. I don't make a ton of money but I don't spend much and don't have a drive to do so. More importantly, I don't expect anything from my government or from my neighbors and I will die before I put myself in a position to ask for a handout or just a hand, as the commercial goes. When fuel prices go up, I just curb my entertainment expenses and spend more time in the shop. Or I just spend more time with the family - talking not doing "things" that cost money. Turn the heat down and curl up in a chair with a good book and a blanket. So sorry if you have to get rid of cable TV or satellite TV for a year - IMO you're better of without it anyway. Take a walk around the neighborhood and get a little exercise. Drink water instead of beer and wine. Go to Barnes and Nobles and sit in a nice comfy chair and read a book - sneak in your own cup of coffee instead of buying a $7.00 Starbucks. Go to the public library. Go walk in the park. Go to church and feel good about being alive. Turn off that crappy news media rubbish - if nobody is told there is a recession does it really exist?

OK so for me, the economy is not bad at all. My job is secure, I am eating, I have no debt, I can put gas in my truck, my lights are on. I am working ever so slowing on my cash RV that one day (only God knows when) will fly. This is my measure of the economy, not how quickly I am getting ahead of the next guy. My investments are going up and down but mostly up and I don't need them to live. So life is good! We live in the still greatest country in the world. Don't worry, be happy. Work harder! Take care of yourself!

Back to the RV!
 
Control what you can, plan for what your can't control

Gents,

I'll chime in on this.

Who can predict the future? I sure can't. I have some control over my future but sometimes I have none. But I can plan, I do have control over that.

Take my RV history. I got out of college, started building an RV. That was my plan. Then I met a girl and got married. That was also in my plan but came a little early. Then we started having kids. That was also in my plan but it too started a bit early then expected. With all these earlier then planned events our finances couldn't really support owning an aircraft. Even though we had just enough money coming in I couldn't justify the financial sacrifices that would have to be made to the family. So the RV-4 was sold in 1990.

Since my original plan was derailed by starting a family early my RV dreams were put on hold.

Right after I put my RV dreams on hold my wife was killed in a car accident and a year later I lost my job after about 9 years with the company. All the insurance money I received went to pay for child care. The money lasted only 3 years. With 3 very young kids to raise (all under 6 yrs old) I thought I would never be able to achieve my dream of owning an RV.

I found another job within a month of loosing my first job. Remarried a wonderful lady 5 years later and sat in front of the computer watching my stock investments go up and down. After a few years of sitting on my butt I decided it was time to start back on my original plan, building RV's. But first I had to build a shop on my property.

When I finally had the plans ready for county permit approval I was going to take them down myself and walk them through the system. So I woke up that morning (my Birthday) and was getting ready to leave when I turned the TV morning news on. It was 9/11/2001. Well I just sat there and watched as the our world changed.

I didn't get down to the permits office that day and I wondered what was going to happen next. Was the economy going to collapse? How would general aviation be effected? What was the smart thing to do at that time?

I decide to quit worrying, I was going to build my shop and then build my RV.

I had a plan both personal and financial and I had control over it. If the economy tanked then I would deal with it but I didn't have any control over it. I have found over my life that things have a way of working out if you plan and keep your eyes open.

I am the sole income earner in our household. We have a house payment (could pay it off if we needed to), car payment and yes we buy everything on a credit card (0 balance at the end of the month) and I don't carry any cash on me. So if you happen to be in line with me at Circle K you may have to wait while I swipe my CC and enter my pin.
 
jsharkey said:
Yup - petrol has just shot up to the equivalent of 40p per litre and sales tax here in Vermont just increased to an obscene 6% - How much is gas and VAT in the UK?
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Awwww, jeeez... I'm paying US $1.30 per litre for the cheap '91' petrol from the pump over here in NZ. GST sits at 12.5% (cheaper than the UK which was around 17% last time I looked 10 years ago). My mortgage comes in at 10-point-somethingorother at the moment :-( Now add the cost of freighting *everything* I need for the RV from the US (and then paying customs & GST on it if the package is over NZ$400). Ouch, ouch and double ouch again!!!:(
 
OT, again.... used avionics

It may just be my failing memory....:)

But has anyone else noticed that the selling price of used avionics on E-Bay has fallen recently?

gil A
 
Pmerems said:
Who can predict the future? I sure can't. I have some control over my future but sometimes I have none. But I can plan, I do have control over that.
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Take what you have, make the best of that, and be happy. The world is filled with unfair things, cruel, uncaring people and crudy things that happen to good people. It is also filled with good, caring people and the occasional bit of providence, even for those who don't deserve it. Decide which camp you're in and go forward with life. I try to spread the joy that flying gives me with other people, regardless of whether I like them or not.

Where will the economy go? Will I still be able to fly? Should I save every penny I have for tomorrow? Who knows.

Plan for tomorrow, but live for today.

TODR
 
An RP man

jsharkey said:
What's an RP man?
Just wondering!
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Do you want to take the red pill or the blue pill? The choice is yours...click on the link below for more details.



BTW, when I hear healthy people moaning about how difficult their life is, I remind them that there are about 4 billion people that would trade places with them in a heartbeat. Thousands of people risk their lives every day just trying to get to shore in Europe, North America, and Oz. We've got it good, and should make the best of it! :)
 
rv8ch said:
Do you want to take the red pill or the blue pill? The choice is yours...click on the link below for more details.



BTW, when I hear healthy people moaning about how difficult their life is, I remind them that there are about 4 billion people that would trade places with them in a heartbeat. Thousands of people risk their lives every day just trying to get to shore in Europe, North America, and Oz. We've got it good, and should make the best of it! :)
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Duh! I like to think that I follow politics but I guess I missed that one.
 
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