I need advice on how to make the go/no-go decision. I cancel a lot of cross country flights because some element of a forecast is less than ideal. I'm still VFR only (currently working on an IFR rating) and a low-timer. I like ceilings greater than 3000', no precipitation, and visibility with the ground (i.e., I fear getting stuck on top).
Three times very recently I cancelled flights because the forecast was less than perfect for me and all 3 times the actual conditions ended up far, far better than the forecast. Most recently I cancelled a flight and drove for 15 hours because one area of my route had a forecast of 2500' overcast with possible heavy precipitation. Actual conditions turned out to be perfect, sunny, flying weather.
Obviously we can't ignore a forecast but seeing how inaccurate they really are makes me even further apprehensive about flying cross-country because a good forecast can just as easily end up very bad (the pessimist in me, I guess).
If there are any other fearful-little-weather-snowflakes like me who can relate to all this, how do you cope and make your go/no-go decisions?
Three times very recently I cancelled flights because the forecast was less than perfect for me and all 3 times the actual conditions ended up far, far better than the forecast. Most recently I cancelled a flight and drove for 15 hours because one area of my route had a forecast of 2500' overcast with possible heavy precipitation. Actual conditions turned out to be perfect, sunny, flying weather.
Obviously we can't ignore a forecast but seeing how inaccurate they really are makes me even further apprehensive about flying cross-country because a good forecast can just as easily end up very bad (the pessimist in me, I guess).
If there are any other fearful-little-weather-snowflakes like me who can relate to all this, how do you cope and make your go/no-go decisions?