A glimpse inside the LSA thoughts that have been turning over in my head:
What's going to be interesting is to see how the cost of an LSA kit compares to a production LSA like Cessna's. The LSA category gives its greatest advantages to the manufacturers, as it greatly reduces the certification costs. This, in turn, allows the manufacturers to reduce the price of the airplane.
LSA kit manufacturers don't enjoy that benefit, obviously. Van has been saying this, and a lot of people are missing it, but there's nothing inherent in the LSA category that are going to make LSA kit airplanes appreciably less expensive than a non-LSA kit. The cost of an RV-7 or RV-9 is based upon the cost of material in the airplane and the portion of the overhead costs the manufacturer passes on. There is not much less metal in the -12 than there is in any of the other RVs, and a new Rotax is going to be just as much as a used Lycoming. Bottom line: expect a -12 kit to end up costing just about as much as a -7 kit.
On the other hand, with the reduced certification costs of a production LSA, Cessna's overhead costs will be greatly reduced. This means that they can bring a new, certified, airplane to market for much less money (relative to other production airplanes).
At the end of the day, LSA kit manufacturers won't be able to reduce the cost of their kits much, but Cessna will be able to make a new LSA for much less than what it would've cost them to make a 152 again.
Sure, a $75,000 to $100,000 Cessna LSA is still much more expensive than a $20,000 to $30,000 RV-12, but that's a much smaller gap than the difference between a $40,000 to $50,000 RV-9 and a new $275,000 172. With the -9 and 172, the extrene difference in cost AND performance makes building a no-brainer for many. With the -12 and Cessna LSA, the difference in cost is less drastic, and there will be no difference in performance. I think there could be a larger number of people for whom the $45,000 to $80,000 difference in cost of a production Cessna LSA is well worth the opportunity cost of a couple of years of their time, especially since the airplane they fly away immediately after writing the check does everything that the RV-12 his neighbor is still building will do.