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Data Point as a Prospective Customer

flybrianfly

I'm New Here
I just wanted to present a data point as a prospective Vans customer.

I attended AirVenture 2022 for a few days - I had been interested in the Rans S-21 and also had some business meetings nearby during the same week. At AirVenture, I got to climb around and sit in the S-21 and also met and chatted with Randy a bunch. Of course the RV-15 was also at the show and I was very impressed by the engineering prototype and the presentation given by Vans about the design, development, and flight testing. I decided to hold off on purchasing the S-21 and see what happens to the RV-15.

I attended AirVenture again in 2023 and if Vans had been taking deposits on the RV-15, I would have put down a deposit to secure my place in line. I had my checkbook in hand when I visited the booth.

I had not been following the primer or LCP issues, but read extensively about them after the October announcement. To say I've been disappointed about how Vans has been handling the bankruptcy would be an understatement. I don't like how the company was using deposits to pay current operational expenses, I don't like how the primer and LCP issues were handled, and a lot of my trust in the company has been eroded. Van as the DIP lender is also a weird scenario - I'm glad that the company isn't being sold overseas, but I feel for everyone that has current deposits in the company and is now being forced to pay sometimes significant price increases or risk losing their deposits.

As an engineer and small business owner, I have to balance keeping profits in a rainy day fund, dispersing profits to employees / shareholders, and reinvesting in future growth. It's tough. I did think the recent interview of Rans, Sonex, and Zenith on the Experimental Aircraft Channel had an interesting discussion about growth and "right-sizing" companies.

I understand that the RV-15 is still under development; although, I would expect the timelines to be pushed out and would be surprised if it's available to order at AirVenture 2024. The larger issue for me is being able to trust Vans as a company that I would want to work with. I think using a separate account for customer deposits is a step in the right direction, but I would want to see stronger protections for money held in that account. I would also like to see a firm timeframe from when a customer's order moves to "Production Commencement" to when it ships. As announced by Vans, the "Notice of Production Commencement" is when money moves into the operational account. It would be reasonable to me to not start production until parts are on hand to fulfill the kit and, for SB kits, I would expect timelines to not extend beyond 3 months between production commencement and crating / shipping. I would certainly not be happy with timelines extending beyond 6 months or longer. In that case, what's the difference from the old system?

As for me, I spoke with Rans about the S-21 in mid December and was told they could get me the full kit sometime in February. I placed the order and was just updated that it will likely be more like late January that the kit will be finished. I'm excited to start building. I also hope Vans survives, grows into a stronger company, and doesn't price me out of future kits. I'll certainly be looking at Vans for future builds.
 
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competition is alive and well

Buying from another company is just one way to help Van's clear their backlog....
Of course if you had your heart set on that snappy new RV-15, you'll never be happy with a kit from a competitor.
The good news is you have all the information and you can make a decision based on what you know. The consequences of those decision are your responsibility and that is advice from one small business owner to another.
 
I

As for me, I spoke with Rans about the S-21 in mid December and was told they could get me the full kit sometime in February. I placed the order and was just updated that it will likely be more like late January that the kit will be finished. .

THIS I find very interesting. I recall posts from a year or so ago that the S-21 was a two year wait. Now down to 2 months. If this is indicative of the market, as I assume it is as that was a pretty popular option, that would seem to imply the bubble has finally burst. Will be interesting to see this play out as it could be a serious bump in the road for Vans recovery plan.

Larry
 
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THIS I find very interesting. I recall posts from a year or so ago that the S-21 was a two year wait. Now down to 2 months. If this is indicative of the market, as I assume it is as that was a pretty popular option, that would seem to imply the bubble has finally burst. Will be interesting to see this play out as it could be a serious bump in the road for Vans recovery plan.

Larry

That’s one possible explanation. The other is that RANS worked out how to manage supply chain and inventory.

Frankly I think the interesting phase for Vans is about 1-2 years from now. Right now they have a long list of captive customers to far into the build to back out. With there current prices which seem to have 4x-5x margin that should give them enough $$ to keep them alive right now. In 1-2 years that backlog will be gone and that’s when new builders ( not just current builders which need to order the finish kit which does show as a new kit order in the books) have to show up. That’s the runway they got to change the perception they got over the last year or so in the community.

Oliver
 
You’re going to enjoy the S-21 (if it meets your requirements for payload and speed) - it’s a great flying airplane, well-designed and handles nicely.I really enjoy flying them - they make my landings look good! At the same time, it is in a different class than the RV-15 - they aren’t interchangeable except as “airplanes” - the S-21 is basically an LSA-sized airplane, and the RV-15 is something between a Cessna 170 and Cessna 180 in terms of horsepower, speed, and weight-carrying capability.

So if the S-21 meets your flying needs, you made the perfect choice. If you need something the size of an RV-15, then in the future you’ll find yourself limited.

I have been reading posts by lots of folks who feel they are now priced out of the RV market (and I totally understand that)(, so they are looking elsewhere. What implies to me is that they REALY didn’t need an RV, they just wanted an airplane - which is fine….in my books, any airplane is better than no airplane. But if you need a specific speed/weight carrying machine, then goin to something else is a significant compromise to your goals.

But I’ll tell you what - if all you want is “an airplane”, the Hummelbird is a blast! And you can build one for about ten grand….. :)

Paul
 
THIS I find very interesting. I recall posts from a year or so ago that the S-21 was a two year wait. Now down to 2 months. If this is indicative of the market, as I assume it is as that was a pretty popular option, that would seem to imply the bubble has finally burst. Will be interesting to see this play out as it could be a serious bump in the road for Vans recovery plan.

Larry

Larry,

All the rest of the sectors have reverted to pre-COVID level supply, logistics, demand. I'm certain the picture for Vans has as well.

Unfortunately they now have to increase prices 20-30% above inflation to account for their financial straits. If inflation continues to stay low for the next several years (i.e. if the COVID bump is over), some of their kit pricing will be uncompetitive and for sure sales will be below pre-COVID levels.

That is without all the bad PR and angry current wave of customers angry with broken contracts and the inability to customize their planes (something every single RV owner I've ever spoken to has cherished and for sure was a competitive edge over say Sling).

Two years from now will be an interesting time. I hope to get all my kits by that point and to be past the point where I'm screwing up bits of aluminum through my stupidity and inability to follow simple instructions.
 
It was always my intention to do a second plane down the line but what I'm afraid of is that the price adjustments from Vans on the kits now are inflated to support the quick build losses. Not to mention that the lead times feel inflated because those facilities have to be supplied first since they suffer if there are no parts there to be worked on.
 
You’re going to enjoy the S-21 (if it meets your requirements for payload and speed) - it’s a great flying airplane, well-designed and handles nicely.I really enjoy flying them - they make my landings look good! At the same time, it is in a different class than the RV-15 - they aren’t interchangeable except as “airplanes” - the S-21 is basically an LSA-sized airplane, and the RV-15 is something between a Cessna 170 and Cessna 180 in terms of horsepower, speed, and weight-carrying capability.

So if the S-21 meets your flying needs, you made the perfect choice. If you need something the size of an RV-15, then in the future you’ll find yourself limited.

I agree - I really like the size of the RV-15, but the S-21 meets my speed and useful load requirements. We'll see if I get limited by the volume of the S-21 baggage compartment. I figure that I could design and add a belly pod in the future if I really feel limited by it. I do really like that I can get a FWF for a Rotax 915 or 916 for the S-21, given the high altitudes that I'm operating out of, but I was planning on investigating putting a 916 on the RV-15 if I went that route instead.

At least for me both the S-21 and RV-15 could work and I was already on the fence between the two of them, so that made the decision easier. I understand for other buyers that might not be the case.

I certainly feel like I got lucky with the delivery timing of the S-21. I think it's probably a combination of luck, increased production capacity, and a reduction in the COVID surge of kit buying.
 
I don't understand the excitement around the RV-15. I don't mean this negatively, I'm really looking to understand. The high wing experimental range is pretty well covered with great available designs.

S21- 2 seat, 800lb UL, and a $60k QB kit.
Glasair- 2+2 seat, 1000 UL, SB $90k, and QB $120k
Bearhawk- 4 seat + Baggage, 1350 UL, and QB $72k
Murphy has a complete range too.

The RV-15 seems to be aimed at the Glasair performance and size wise. I suppose it was intended to be cheaper. But with the pricing increases I'm not sure it will be. Maybe the same price as a RV-14 around $90k? So other than Vans historical reputation and following what am I missing?
 
I don't understand the excitement around the RV-15. I don't mean this negatively, I'm really looking to understand. The high wing experimental range is pretty well covered with great available designs.

S21- 2 seat, 800lb UL, and a $60k QB kit.
Glasair- 2+2 seat, 1000 UL, SB $90k, and QB $120k
Bearhawk- 4 seat + Baggage, 1350 UL, and QB $72k
Murphy has a complete range too.

The RV-15 seems to be aimed at the Glasair performance and size wise. I suppose it was intended to be cheaper. But with the pricing increases I'm not sure it will be. Maybe the same price as a RV-14 around $90k? So other than Vans historical reputation and following what am I missing?

A lot of it is brand loyalty. There are some cool things in the 15's design. I can't wait to build one, it checks all my boxes.
 
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So other than Vans historical reputation and following what am I missing?

The DETAILS
The primary commonality with the list you made is that they are all high wing airplanes.
A lot of details diverge beyond that.
Go back and read Paul’s post. There is very little that is common between the S-21 and the RV-15, and to some degree the other models you mentioned, in regards to performance specs.
Each has some particular stand outs that are different from the rest if you look beyond “high wing”.
The best for any one person depends on what their particular needs are.
 
I don't understand the excitement around the RV-15. I don't mean this negatively, I'm really looking to understand. The high wing experimental range is pretty well covered with great available designs.

S21- 2 seat, 800lb UL, and a $60k QB kit.
Glasair- 2+2 seat, 1000 UL, SB $90k, and QB $120k
Bearhawk- 4 seat + Baggage, 1350 UL, and QB $72k
Murphy has a complete range too.

The RV-15 seems to be aimed at the Glasair performance and size wise. I suppose it was intended to be cheaper. But with the pricing increases I'm not sure it will be. Maybe the same price as a RV-14 around $90k? So other than Vans historical reputation and following what am I missing?

What are you missing? Half of your list are not actually available - Glassair has stopped production for at least the next two years (and probably longer) and Murphy is sort of in limbo when it comes to actual kit deliveries - and has been for a long time. Don’t get me wrong - I like both lines of aircraft, and the people at both companies….they just can’t seem to get production in gear.
 
I too tried to throw money at Vans for an RV-15 during the last two Airventure OSH. Now with all the issues they're having it's going to take a long time to get things straightened out. Yes, the Chapter 11 filing has a small amount of money allocated to the RV-15. Not the kind of money you need to start kit production IMHO and with their test pilot gone, I have to say it does not instill a whole lot of confidence in it ever being produced. Best case I see right now is an RV-15 in two years, IF it ever happens. Soooo, the RANS S21 looks like a really nice airplane that can fill the gap until the RV-15 comes along. 800 lb usable load with a Titan IO340 motor is pretty darn close to what little RV-15 performance numbers have been shared by Vans.

I see a flight to Hays, KS in my future and some serious research on the S21. Glasair Sportsman, too rich for my blood. Murphy Moose, too big for me and my runway. Murphy Yukon would be nice but have yet to see one. Bearhawk, don't really want a fabric airplane. I just retired so it sure would be nice to have a project to work on now and not just a wish for a maybe project who knows when. In the meantime I'll be upgrading my -8 panel and waiting for the dust to settle a bit.
 
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Yep, I've flown a weight managed S-21 with the Titan XIO-340 and it's a very impressive airplane in flying qualities, performance and construction. But my only frame of reference was a RV-4 I helped build in the 80's, and a couple of EZ's and a Lancair.
 
Soooo, the RANS S21 looks like a really nice airplane that can fill the gap until the RV-15 comes along. 800 lb usable load with a Titan IO340 motor is pretty darn close to what little RV-15 performance numbers have been shared by Vans.
800 lb useful load is very good, but for it to be a fair comparison, all of the related details need to be considered as well.
If you look at the space available to load payload influencing gear / cargo, there is no comparison between the two.
If you don’t have interior space to carry the stuff you want to, it doesn’t matter how high the useful load is ( unless all you plan to ever carry is 80 lb bags of concrete mix :rolleyes:)
 
I agree - I really like the size of the RV-15, but the S-21 meets my speed and useful load requirements. We'll see if I get limited by the volume of the S-21 baggage compartment. I figure that I could design and add a belly pod in the future if I really feel limited by it. I do really like that I can get a FWF for a Rotax 915 or 916 for the S-21, given the high altitudes that I'm operating out of, but I was planning on investigating putting a 916 on the RV-15 if I went that route instead.

At least for me both the S-21 and RV-15 could work and I was already on the fence between the two of them, so that made the decision easier. I understand for other buyers that might not be the case.

I certainly feel like I got lucky with the delivery timing of the S-21. I think it's probably a combination of luck, increased production capacity, and a reduction in the COVID surge of kit buying.

While my barely started 12is project is on hold, I picked up a nice little Rans S-7S a few months ago. It’s a really nice airplane and got me looking at the S21 more closely as a possible future project. Rans customer service has been outstanding and very fast for the few inquires and parts orders I have made so far.
Shelly posted a ready to ship complete S-21 kit on FB the other day at a slight discount. I emailed her inquiring about the wait time for a new order and she said March or April, so they are getting them out the door pretty fast.
 
I don't understand the excitement around the RV-15. I don't mean this negatively, I'm really looking to understand. The high wing experimental range is pretty well covered with great available designs.

S21- 2 seat, 800lb UL, and a $60k QB kit.
Glasair- 2+2 seat, 1000 UL, SB $90k, and QB $120k
Bearhawk- 4 seat + Baggage, 1350 UL, and QB $72k
Murphy has a complete range too.

The RV-15 seems to be aimed at the Glasair performance and size wise. I suppose it was intended to be cheaper. But with the pricing increases I'm not sure it will be. Maybe the same price as a RV-14 around $90k? So other than Vans historical reputation and following what am I missing?

For all intents and purposes, at the moment the Glasair Sportsman no longer exists in the market. Production tooling has been moved to China. No announcements have been made by the parent company with respect to if or when they might consider producing kits again. As a Sportsman builder/owner this is more than a little disappointing. Maybe, some day the Sportsman will be available again. In the meantime I'm very glad I have a Sportsman as it truly has no comparable in the kit plane market.
 
What are you missing? Half of your list are not actually available - Glassair has stopped production for at least the next two years (and probably longer) and Murphy is sort of in limbo when it comes to actual kit deliveries - and has been for a long time. Don’t get me wrong - I like both lines of aircraft, and the people at both companies….they just can’t seem to get production in gear.

Paul - from whence comes the "at least the next two years" reference? Enquiring minds want to know! :D


PS: Glasair has but one sole "S" in the name. It's a lonely "S" - maybe in its eventual reincarnation a second "S" will be added to keep that original "S" company! ;)
 
Paul - from whence comes the "at least the next two years" reference? Enquiring minds want to know! :D


PS: Glasair has but one sole "S" in the name. It's a lonely "S" - maybe in its eventual reincarnation a second "S" will be added to keep that original "S" company! ;)

Sorry about the extra S - all my editors know about my typing (mis)skills….

The two years was a reference to the original announcement of all the tooling going to China - there was a reference there to something like the earliest they could produce parts would be two years. Nothing mysterious, no inside knowledge - just what was in a press release.
 
That’s one possible explanation. The other is that RANS worked out how to manage supply chain and inventory.

Oliver

You may be right, but I doubt it. Most small companies that tried to ramp up production to meet the covid bubble experienced issues similar to Vans though not necessarily bad enough to go BK. There is a reason that most companies just accepted the fact that they could only deliver what they could make and left the $ on the table.
 
Sorry about the extra S - all my editors know about my typing (mis)skills….

The two years was a reference to the original announcement of all the tooling going to China - there was a reference there to something like the earliest they could produce parts would be two years. Nothing mysterious, no inside knowledge - just what was in a press release.
Thanks Paul, I didn't know Glasair & Murphy were not available. That cleared it up for me.
 
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