What's new
Van's Air Force

The definitive Van's Aircraft support community! Buying, building or flying an RV? Join our exclusive family of mentors and enthusiasts!

Sonex Closing Down

It is sad .

We’ve had to make this decision very suddenly as a perfect storm of bank pressure, lack of sales, increasing costs, competition from our own aircraft in the used market
Click to expand...

There's a cynical part of me that wonders about this. Every manufacturer competes with its own product. It seems to have earned us things that don't last in consumer appliances. Planes? Too expensive to be disposable. So companies pump prices to make up for lost sales, leading to a death spiral. Open to other perspectives on that but it looks dim to me.
 
I'm sure Mark Schaible is reading these comments so I'm just going to say that reading his Youtube post as a fellow small business owner was a kick in the gut (and the region further south). So sorry to see this. Having to file personal bankruptcy along with all this must be especially awful and humiliating. Hang in there, do the right things, set the right examples and one way or the other, you'll come out of it! As Churchill said, if you're going through hell, keep going! Rooting for you!
 
Kyle Boatright said:
We used up all of the core engines and simultaneously turned the whole thing into a spending contest.
Click to expand...
I agree with your assessment. I’m trying to find an engine right now. The costs are more than twice what they were when I started building less than 4 years ago. RVs and aviation in general are becoming unreachable for the average person. I’m not sure that enough people will be left to keep it sustainable. Time will tell I guess.
 
Last edited:
I agree with Kyle…somewhere along the way this whole vibe changed. It stopped being about having a ball…and more about one upsmanship…the planes got heavier and bigger engines…and more one upsmanship…I recall the first time I saw an rv-4 tip the scales over 1100lbs…loaded to the gills with radios, leather everything (Corinthian no less).

And then the nose wheels started showing up…and while I’m not intentionally knocking that move…it changed again…the vibe. The feel and texture of the RV and the crowd.

What we are seeing is the death of general aviation, as we know it…no young people influxing into our ranks. No late nights of building and building and building and figuring out all the myriad of things not spoon fed with 51% kits. Bloody fingers, scratched heads…but back then…even if your plane was kinda crappy…you could say…” well…..I made those mistakes myself”…


(I happen to be a truly CRAP painter…and have made several less than stellar messes on that front)


Now don’t take me wrong…..I like everyone. I like anything that flies…and anyone that flies…but without young people, this dies.

Without cheap entry points, this dies. Without the crotchety old instructor and a Champ or Cub, supplementing his retirement….this dies. No ripped tee shirts on a crusty wall somewhere…GA is being left behind for gadgets and bells and whistle to “go places”



I’ve made up my mind on a few things….i’m reaching to kids and making them go for a rides. And it ain’t about radios or Garmins or autopilots or anything….it’s about look at the mountain….this is a roll….that’s a stall…..GET YOUR HAND ON THE STICK:!!! Feel it in your back-side…YOU CAN DO THIS!!!


So….who can we blame?? Blame ourselves.

We need to stop aggrandizing what we do. It’s not that important and too many times when I visit a place…I suffer through listening to pilots tell people how hard it all is….and generally convincing new guys that it’s gonna take forever and cost an arm and a leg….and the only way to do it, is to get to the airlines….


I learned from a mean old cuss….but he was cheap. I didn’t and still don’t want to be an airline pilot. But I want to have people feel what I feel in my heart when I fly…the Joy…the sense of accomplishment….the pride and the desire to share it. I tell kids…ANYONE can learn to fly these things. Anyone can find a way to learn.

So here’s my two cents worth…plans are plentiful and if Van’s went under tomorrow…you can still build an RV-4 or 6 from plans. In some ways…I wish the kit business never happened…because all you are doing, is paying someone to do something you could have done yourself….and I have. And in fact I am now…building from scratch again. No kit required. What is required is patience and diligence and tenacity….and those are traits I’ve earned from home building.

Tom Poberezny Sr. Would be proud of what he started…and I will be just a little bit critical now…Forums such as this, exist to share knowledge. And I see a lot of stupid questions….and I’ll define stupid as those questions that have already been answered repeatedly, but a person is too lazy to do their own research to answer themselves. Too much of that here.

Sorry to vent….I feel bad for the Sonex guy…but not really….he took orders for things he didn’t have and he was under-capitalized and shouldn’t have done that. He screwed over some folks along the way…and they should be mad and mad at him. And he should have learned the golden rule of business…_ NEVER ever…trust a bank.

As for Vans…he was a man with a dream…and he left his company in the hands of some bad business guys. If it weren’t for his personal ethics and money…he could have let it die. I’d suppose it will die in the future because no one else is like him.

Driven. That’s the man.


Risk…? Terms not even in his Language. Same as John Monnett…made a living for himself, till an inferior guy took it over…what John and Van and every successful business owner understands…cannot be understood by a normally employed person….You bleed for your business…it takes from you as human being. It’s not fun…it costs you a part of your life, to make others happy, giving up some of your own happiness.


We…all of us….choose to let General Aviation die….or we choose to pick up broken pieces and build, which is to say…you and I all….best get busy grabbing a neighbor for a ride, or introducing a young person as to just how amazing this all is….If you watch and nod your head but the word “liability” is the first thing popping into your mind….you and I are not cut from the same cloth.

It’s time we change. And we better do it now. Next year is too late.
 
dwollen89 said:
I agree with your assessment. I’m trying to find an engine right now. The costs are more than twice what they were when I started building less than 4 years ago. RVs and aviation in general are becoming unreachable for the average person. I’m not sure that enough people will be left to keep it sustainable. Time will tell I guess.
Click to expand...
I commented here about the ever increasing size, complexity, and cost of RVs. The legacy RVs are simple airplane but the RV10, RV14, and now the RV15 are a lot more complex, and they cost a lot. In the late 1990s, Glasair and Lancair priced themselves out of the EAB market with every new model eclipsed the previous high cost to built. This path is not sustainable. My RV8 cost to build was 100K. The RV14 easily double this price. This is a mortgage for a small house. There are definitely a few deep pocket builders who could fork out the money for everything, including engines with one paycheck. We heard about them during the lazer cut thing. Unfortunately, the EAB cannot cater to these deep pocket types because there are so few of them. But there are a lot of people like me who rather build something more affordable, and is willing to slow build.
 
Speculating here. New kit development costs are tough these days. Think about Van designing the RV-1 through -6. A guy at a drafting board in the evenings or on weekends. Draw the part, make it on the bending brake or wooden form, rivet it together. The up-front investment is relatively low - some plywood, aluminum, and a lot of free time from the founder.

But now we've arrived at 3D CAD designed fully CNC punched cleco-together kits. Those require an engineering team, a lot of time, and millions of dollars of equipment to produce even the first example.

It is easy to see how a kit company can get over-extended developing one of the newer, high tech kits. Think of what Van's has spent on the -15... How long has it been in development and how many design iterations has it gone through? I'd bet the development costs alone are easily into 7 figures. That's expensive and has to be amortized over some number of kits sold. Compare and contrast that with the RV-6. One basic design, a prototype, revised the cowl and put it in production. Later added the sliding canopy and a nose gear. Since Van <sort of> didn't have to pay himself, his out of pocket cost for the prototype was his time, materials, and a helper (Art Chard, maybe) for a year or two.

That's one of many reasons kit costs have exploded. And somewhat explains why today's kits are much easier to assemble, but the budget builder's options have substantially evaporated.

To tell the new guys what it cost back in the day. In 1996 I bought a 2nd hand, partially built RV-6 tail kit for $600. It came with a C-frame, a rivet gun, sets, hundreds of cleco's, cleco plyers, rivet cutter, countersinks, microstop countersink cage, bucking bars, and everything else but the time, electricity, and compressed air it took to build the sub-kit. A year or so later, I bought a 2nd hand wing kit that came with another tail kit for $3,100 and sold the assembled tail kit for $800, I think. The whole airplane - rebuilt engine, paint, tools, everything cost $43K when it was finished.

The RV-10 was slightly more expensive, but you'd be surprised at how little (relatively speaking) I have in it... It's about finding bargains and making fiscally sound choices. Unfortunately, there seem to be fewer of those today unless you're looking for an abandoned non-pp kit.
 
wirejock said:
Wow. Just watched it. That hurts. Again, what the heck happened to EAB?
Click to expand...
I have said it a few times, but believe we have seen a huge bubble in the market and all bubbles eventually burst. I feel this is just the beginning of a more significant downturn in purchases. There was just soooo much buying over a 4 year period, that demand has exhausted. Not saying the market will crash, only a slow down to realistic levels. However, there was so much buying that it has to crater some more before it rebounds. I expect an uptick in partially completed kit sales and that will further erode new sales.

The insane escalation in prices just makes all this happen faster as each increase cuts another layer of the market out of the mix.

No doom and gloom here, just one man’s opinion.
 
Last edited:
Kyle Boatright said:
To tell the new guys what it cost back in the day. In 1996 I bought a 2nd hand, partially built RV-6 tail kit for $600.
Click to expand...
That sounds familiar.....I bought a 2nd hand empennage kit in 96, for $600. A couple years later I bought an O-360 from Vans for $19,500.
 
I wrote up some thoughts for AvBrief on the Sonex announcement a little while ago - they should be published sometime in the next few days. In the meantime, as the owner of two different Sonex airplanes, I can tell you that they have always filled an important niche in getting people into flying airplanes for less money. I have a great relationship with Mark Schaible (as a customer, journalist, and serving with him on EAA committees) , and feel badly for him - this hits their family VERY hard. There will be a lot of angry people with partial kits, deposits they will never get back, and broken dreams. But hopefully they will put these things in perspective and haven’t mortgaged the farm to buy their kit. The good news is that Sonex’s can be built from plans alone - so with enough effort, any project now underway can be completed.

Sonex may very well be the canary in the coal mine for our industry - and it is at least a warning for everyone else. This is a tough business to make work in the current economy. Give thanks for every airplane you have flying - no matter whose name is on the design.
 
wirejock said:
Wow. Just watched it. That hurts. Again, what the heck happened to EAB?
Click to expand...
Awful news and a sad day for the EAB community.

What happened to EAB? Well.... Glass panels, autopilots, leather interiors, expensive paint jobs, lines of credit to build a toy, lycoming IOX blah blah blah-390 engines, pre made everything (wiring harnesses etc), and even things like highly detailed instructions all drive up the cost. Quarter million dollar-plus RV's or sport planes in general is insane. I'm proud as heck of my RV because it's got my name all over it, and not just on the data plate... the orange peel paint job, the home made upholstery, used engine and sterba prop. I'm not trying to offend anyone just a point of view from someone on a very limited budget.

The more I see fancy airplanes the more I want to build a NORDO pietenpol.

Alex
 
justa6ereh said:
I agree with Kyle…somewhere along the way this whole vibe changed. It stopped being about having a ball…and more about one upsmanship…the planes got heavier and bigger engines…and more one upsmanship…I recall the first time I saw an rv-4 tip the scales over 1100lbs…loaded to the gills with radios, leather everything (Corinthian no less).

And then the nose wheels started showing up…and while I’m not intentionally knocking that move…it changed again…the vibe. The feel and texture of the RV and the crowd.
Click to expand...
Sounds like Van's, bigger better. I flew many day VFR RV-3's and RV-4's in the early 90's, with O320, wood prop, basic day VFR, or may be night lights (3 Nav and a single white strobe on the top of vertical). RV-6 came along, but still was designed around the O-320's and wood prop or fixed metal prop, simple panel, interior. I flew the Blue prototype with Richard Van off his grass strip, O-320, wood prop, very basic panel. It was and a blast and bought the kit. Than RV-6A came along.

Many builders started installing in O/IO-360 180HP and Constant Speed props in their RV-6, some shoehorned in a 200HP Angle valve into their RV-6. They got heavy, and useful load was down and aerobatic weight two up was not practical (if you followed Van's limitations). Even more atrocious IMHO were the Automotive engines, even heavier.

Then came the awesome RV-8/A and RV-7/A both designed with IO=360 200HP, Constant Speed prop in mind. Then in no particular order RV-10, RV-14, RV-9. RV-12, RV-15.... You have to have 200HP-230HP, $40K Garmin Panel with IFR GPS and two axis autopilot, $25K paint job, leather interior, on and on. A turn key RV-12iS is $190K to $225K.

THERE'S NOTHING BETTER than an a RV-4 built light, simple, handling a delight, pure fun. No need to BOOT up the glass with steam gauges. Heavy RV's are not the delight these early light RV's were to fly in pure feel. Back then builders sourced used engines and bought Wood Prop shops dozen shops: Catto, Prince, Edward Sterba, Bernie Warnke, Culver and many many more. In the North West we had local prop manufactures, hand crafted by individuals. When the principle passed away so did their propellers. They were works of arts and sophisticated leading edge treatments (rain erosion). Very light and talk about low vibration... Light weight low vibrations. As far as used engines Van's prices on Lycoming's were a bargain and that was the hot ticket. Well cost of engines now are now...

Sonex in 2024 rolled out a new high wing design. I really liked the the looks of it, like a Wittman Tailwind.

Sonex had a tragic 2015 accident with loss of CEO Jeremy Monnett, son of Sonex founder John Monnett. Also lost was mechanic Mike Clark in that accident. I thought that might have been the end of Sonex, but they carried on. Founder John Monnett, retired in 2018. Sonex employee and general manager, Mark Schaible, purchased the assets of Sonex in 2022. They had a good run over almost 30 yrs, some interesting designs, motor glider, SubSonex Jet and aforementioned high wing... I am sorry to hear this news.

I understand the call of more power, constant speed prop and fancy panels with autopilots, which have real advantages. Glass cockpits (VFR) can be had for $12,000. I know, I did it with Grand Rapids Technologies, with two axis autopilot, ADS-B In/Out, full Engine Indication System. I decided to go IFR, added a Garmin, GPS175, which added $6K. For IFR redundancy I added a G5, with independent AHRS and display. I bought a used G5 with all the goodies for $2000 a steal. I added $8000 to go from Deluxe VFR Glass to IFR. Will I fly IFR? Yes. Will I fly it enough to justify $8000? May be, may be not. I really enjoy IFR and teach students as a CFII at a flight club in my retirement. Student just passed his Instrument Pilot Airplane check ride. Nice option to have IFR capability when traveling.
 
I hold the first production QB Highwing position for which I have a significant financial investment and just took delivery of the UL Power engine that would go in it. Hopefully I will sell the engine or hang it on something else.
I think Mark is an amazing aircraft designer that got in over his head financially. Real easy to do in this business. That's a very common theme. Think Jim Bede, or Rick Scheramic of Epic. I hold nothing against Mark. I will take a financial haircut but I hope someone will bring the Highwing to fruition as it is a superb design. At 74 years old I probably don't have the patience to participate, but I respect Mark for what he does best, design and builds airplanes.
The hobby we love is a dying thing and anyone that can keep it going has my respect. I feel so bad for Mark not seeing his dream come true. The whole new genre of inexpensive, fast, efficient, safe and fun aircraft that can be flown with a drivers licence and built quickly with no previous skills was epitomized in the Highwing thanks to Mark.
Maybe I will do another Vans and hang my engine on a RV12.
 
Fantastic post by @justa6ereh above, speaking out of my heart, thanks for that.

Can't help but feel sorry for all you Sonex builders, hang on. The positive is that those Sonex airplanes are pretty simple designs, and hopefully those missing parts are also replicable using the plans. Or that someone, à la Titan Aircraft, will take over the remains, and it return the brand to life.

Way past, at the dawn of 1988, I ordered my complete RV-4 kit. This was in the wake of many well know brands of kit producers, and aircraft manufacturers bankruptcies. And those were mainly due to a wave of liability claims in vogue at the time.
Seeing this, topped by being located on another continent, had me decide on ordering the whole kit in one package. That was one shipment of all the necessary kits, and one payment (truth is, after sending the contract and a down payment). I was by no means wealthy, so my sanity was questioned not only by wifey, but also by myself as I sent in that bank money transfer (once upon a time all comms were either on real paper, or using a fax (...) machine), for 6'600 and a few crumbs US$. The rate of exchange was not good, but when those 3 huge wooden boxes turned in I had all what was needed to complete the build, at least all the elements from Vans.

This option has disappeared over the years, and I salute those RV-15 now willing to take the risk in ordering a wing kit for an aircraft on which the final design has been barely completed, if at all.

Reflected in many of the posts above, kit building has changed, evolved, along with its wagon loads of positives and negatives... not much we can do but ride along...


Good luck to all affected by Sonex's closure 🍀
 
Kyle Boatright said:
I think the market is down to <mostly> Cub clones and RV's. Sure, there are some fringe players, but nothing that's generating any economies of scale.
Click to expand...
I would call Spirit Engineering and outlier, but it's not turning out to be a fringe player. Introduced at OSH 2025 after 10 years of development, testing and building a factory and having 20 airframes waiting in the wings when announced. The waiting list is pushing a year and a half out. Not a kit plane but a flying airplane built by a fully vertically integrated factory for the equivalent cost of a Lycoming engine and fixed pitch prop. And they interview you on the phone prior to acceptance to make sure you're not an inexperienced dreamer. And they don't take deposits at order. They only take a small deposit when the ordered aircraft starts production. Beyond uncommon. Rather a study of an owner/designer (Steve Woods) willing to invest a huge sum into a serious business centered around a fun dream. Hard competition when many LSA kits cost as much or more in a box of parts. Many existing and new pilots just want to fly rather than build, as evidenced by the prices of used RV-14's and RV-10's. It's unlikely any legacy EAB kit plane companies have ever had access to Spirit Engineering's type of resources (Christen in the 1980's as an exception). My heroes are the likes of Van, Dean Wilson, Pitts, Story, Rutan, Woods, Thorp and Chris Heinz. All driven more by the engineering and love of aviation than the bottom line.

Spirit Factory.jpg
 
Last edited:
Had an interesting thought. What if Vans were able to acquire Sonex and sell it as an economy line. Much like Chevy and Cadillac. Both GM but different level of luxury, style, and cost. Call it something like RVX with a nickname of the poor man’s Vans. Keep it simple and cheap. One model. One stick and a single pilot can sit in the middle for lots of room or side by side for 2 people.

As I look into my crystal ball, I foresee a bell curve for sales or at least a lower level plateau due to a combination of factors. Cost, market saturation, aging of pilot population with less new replacement pilots, inflation diminished disposable income, etc…. Vans enabled the common joe pilot to own a plane. Just my opinion but a decked out 10, 14, or 15 is out of reach for Joe and all the others are close behind.

Vans has the infrastructure to handle but to me the real question is the acquisition cost.
 
justa6ereh said:
I feel bad for the Sonex guy…but not really….he took orders for things he didn’t have and he was under-capitalized and shouldn’t have done that. He screwed over some folks along the way…and they should be mad and mad at him. And he should have learned the golden rule of business…_ NEVER ever…trust a bank.

As for Vans…he was a man with a dream…and he left his company in the hands of some bad business guys. If it weren’t for his personal ethics and money…he could have let it die. I’d suppose it will die in the future because no one else is like him.
Click to expand...
Unfortunately, the old adage that the way to make a small fortune in aviation is to start with a large one is true. EAB has mostly operated on selling a dream and living from the deposits cookie jar. Vans did it (I pray that's over), Sonex did it and I'd be surprised if there aren't others. I'd think it's very hard to get capital in this business. Banks look at the Vans example, and now Sonex, and run away screaming. Vendors should be reluctant to extend terms, or if they do, with significant restrictions. I've heard that Vans has had some issues getting material and vendors have demanded prepayment...once burned, twice shy. I'm sure that Vans can get credit, but the terms would be onerous. That leaves deposits and deposits mostly come from introduction of new models and attendant excitement...sound familiar? It's a business model that is always just a few steps ahead of disaster. Sounds like Spirit Engineering has a different way of doing things. Perhaps Sling as well.

Unfortunately, a kit purchaser is making a non-recourse loan to a kit maker when they send their deposit in and they should be able to weather the complete loss of it. That takes a LOT of passion. You become essentially a stock holder without any of the benefits of being one. It's too bad that deposits are not required to be deposited in an escrow account, but if they were AND if the kit maker was required to ship a kit 100% complete before getting that money, well, there wouldn't many kit makers left...
 
A lot of spot on thoughts from many posts here. I'm just adding my 2 cents on a few points.

Sonex's really are baby RV's. Without the time and $ to build or purchase a Vans I looked hard at them last summer. Marks point about competition from their own product is valid. They can be had for far less than the cost to build (of course RV's used to be that way too). The one I flew felt exactly like the RV-6 I experienced, other than shoulders and the canopy being closer.

I eventually found an RV-4 I could give new life to within my budget and time constraints. Speaking to cost, I've fallen victim to some of that temptation. Started out wanting a simple screen and a radio, and ending up with a full Dynon suite including autopilot :rolleyes:, kinda ashamed of myself lol. The other cost driver, engines, is a true threat to general aviation. At some point experimental builders became averse to experimenting. Makes it pretty hard for other players to enter the arena, Fingers crossed for UL Power, Yamaha, and Kawasaki. Without success from a couple of them the GA outlook is grim.

Engineering costs. I'm sure this played a part for both Vans and Sonex. Having lived the transition from a drafting table to CAD as a construction worker, I can state with certainty, engineering quality has declined while schedules and cost have increased. I continually see it take several months to issue a simple piping IFC package, that we construct in a few days. All with the obligatory note regarding dimensions "field verify", cause even with 3D scans they're never right. And since I'm harassing engineers here's another truth every mechanic knows. An engineer will step over a pile of beautiful virgins to screw a mechanic. :ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO:
 
Lots of good points here about the EAB world changing for the worse, driving away regular folks by focusing on zillion dollar aircraft, etc.

All true. But consider that Vans went under during a period of explosive growth. Reading the bankruptcy filings is an instructive horror show. Their problem wasn’t that customers were being priced out of the market, although that may indeed be a long term trend. Vans’ problem was that they were completely unprepared - in terms of supply chain quality control, pricing policy, infrastructure, and (most importantly) management skill - to even survive, much less take advantage of, what should have been a GOOD change in circumstances.
 
Dugaru said:
Vans’ problem was that they were completely unprepared - in terms of supply chain quality control, pricing policy, infrastructure, and (most importantly) management skill - to even survive, much less take advantage of, what should have been a GOOD change in circumstances.
Click to expand...

Van’s problem was living/surviving on the margin for years did not prepare them for several major engineering/production issues (including increase in demand) happening in succession.
 
That’s disappointing many more will be hurting also but it’s a fact of life, nothing is forever, RIP Sonex
 
Surprised to hear the news last night. I just happened to pick up a complete 2022 Sonex B kit a few weeks ago. Even though I'm in the midst of another airplane project, It was truly one of those amazing "barn find" opportunities too good to pass on. I've got mixed emotions over what to do with it now. Part of me wants to ensure this kit eventually flies as a nod and tribute to Sonex and the other part of me wants to make the parts available to a few who need them to finish their projects. Suggestions welcome from the gang...meanwhile it will be in storage as I ponder a decision.
 
I believe a big contributor to Sonex’s decline was increased competition. And when MOSAIC aircraft start arriving, I believe we’ll see much more competition and chaos in the EAB and GA market.

Last year, I attended a Garmin factory avionics training class in Kansas. In the small class, there were 3 Sling builders/flyers and only one RV guy (me). One of the Sling guys had started an RV-10 but switched to Sling during Van’s bankruptcy issues. I visited him twice during his build. Sling makes a very nice product.

I’m a fan of Sonex and seriously considered one of their kits. I attended presentations at both Sun-N-fun and OSH and was on their mailing list for years. It appeared to me that other kit companies passed them by.
 
Last edited:
rv6builder said:
Awful news and a sad day for the EAB community.

What happened to EAB? Well.... Glass panels, autopilots, leather interiors, expensive paint jobs, lines of credit to build a toy, lycoming IOX blah blah blah-390 engines, pre made everything (wiring harnesses etc), and even things like highly detailed instructions all drive up the cost. Quarter million dollar-plus RV's or sport planes in general is insane. I'm proud as heck of my RV because it's got my name all over it, and not just on the data plate... the orange peel paint job, the home made upholstery, used engine and sterba prop. I'm not trying to offend anyone just a point of view from someone on a very limited budget.

The more I see fancy airplanes the more I want to build a NORDO pietenpol.

Alex
Click to expand...
Like others feel, this brings to the forefront the realization that EAB as we knew it seems to be going away. I choose to build utility and with the amount that I have in my 6A, you couldn't even buy a 7 kit today. I could care less that the current builder happily dumps $2-300K into these planes to avoid enormous amounts of pre fab everything and create airborne BMWs. However, this has moved the entire industry into that direction. Who is left selling kits and other things to build an affordable plane? It would seem that this will run its course and at some point we will run out of people either willing or able to drop $250K on a sport plane. Many companies that went down this rabbit hole will go away, but others will change and new ones will appear. Once we have run out of folks with that kind of money, there will be a large untapped market of EAB buyers willing and able to spend $100-150K (what used to be $75-125 in 2018 dollars) and companies will recognize it and cater to it. Today, there is just too much interest and too much potential for these companies to avoid the temptation to chase it. Maybe the Sonex story is a wake up call for others, but highly doubt it. Sadly, many will be flushed out, but confident new ones will appear and some will read the writing and adapt. It would appear the traditional sport plane market is already seeing the beginning of this as all the irrational demand has moved to high wing, bush style planes. Pretty sure everyone can see how the bottom is going to fall out of that at some point in the near term; How many people can really afford a $400K cub?

I don't believe EAB is dying, just going through a phase. Companies foolow demand and profit potential and typically chase the promise of greater profit per unit; Many blindly. At some point the demand for affordable EAB will be attractive and suppliers will supply that demand. Not hard to see how a guy copies the RV 7 design and creates kits with less pre fab and lower costs; Even adapts it for more affordable engine options. The Lyc greed will, IMO, drive more attention to alternative engines and some company will figure out how to engineer a relatively reliable version that is affordable. I don't mean companies like deltahawk, that charge even more, but adapt existing engines to aviation use. It can't really be done well by guys like us in a garage, but can be done by a company with resources.

There is hope. The demand is still there and at some point the industry will move to syupport it.
 
I wonder if Sonex could have hung on a bit longer until its new high wing kits gained traction, that it might have been enough to save the company. I'm not sure what the sales numbers are so far for the R-15, but my feeling is that the new design has given a much needed boost to Vans.

For the right purchaser, acquiring most of the assets of Sonex in a Chapter 7 liquidation, including the designs, inventory, equipment and trademarks, could be a real bargain.
 
I have an unpopular opinion in contrast to most of what I'm seeing here. I'm only a little bit surprised by that, but the proof is kind of in the pudding. Most of the commentary here is that the problem for Sonex was that everything has gotten too fancy and expensive, but Sonex was the opposite of that. They were the value option, and it didn't work.

I toured Sonex a couple years ago and was impressed. I loved everything I saw and wanted to prioritize it as my second build. Unfortunately the more I looked at the market the more I realized how dismal the resale is. If you start an RV project, chances are that you will not get bit too bad if you have to bail out along the way, or finish and sell it. If you start a Sonex, you're getting bit no matter what. Bad. Mark's comments about being their own competition make perfect sense. There was no case for building one when finished airplanes were far less than kit components.

There's a contingency of budget minded RV builders who just want things to stay the way they were 30 years ago, but it's not how markets for luxuries like airplanes work. People here play poor for sport, but we're all in a luxury market. There's always the next guy with more with money to spend, and airplanes are a like a magnet for dollars. The same thing happens in the car market where a vocal minority pretends they want stripped down low end vehicles, but almost every time a manufacturer responds, it doesn't sell.

Just an alternate perspective of someone building the second airplane they can't afford.
 
A lot has been written about increasing costs, and increasing tendency to load the planes with the latest / greatest / best / most. I agree with all that. But there is a factor we are ignoring... Median Household Income.
Median? Did I learn that in statistics or something?
Median is where half of the households earn more than you, and half less. True 'middle income'.
We don't want average because that gets really skewed by billionaires.

So to the numbers:
fred.stlouisfed.org

Real Median Household Income in the United States

View the inflation-adjusted value of the 50th percentile of the U.S. income distribution, as estimated by the Census Bureau.
fred.stlouisfed.org
US Household median income:
1985 $60K
2000 $72K
2024 $84K
I've got to think building an RV7 in 2000 on a 72K income was easier than building one in 2024 on a 16% higher income.

And it's not just the dang airplane parts going up:
fred.stlouisfed.org

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average

View data of the CPI, or an inflation measure derived from tracking the changes in the weighted-average price of a basket of common goods and services.
fred.stlouisfed.org
Consumer Price Index:
1985 106,000
2000 171,000
2024 313,000
That's an 83% increase in prices from 2000 to 2024, while median income has gone up 16%.
The picture is much the same where you look at 1985 --- 2000.

To obey the forum rules I won't comment regarding any 'fault' (nor should you).
But I think this explains a shrinking market in mid income people for a non-necessity.
 
I'm not sure that the legacy spirit of amateur airplane building is as relevant to today's pilots as it once was. I'm biased, however, and may not be seeing it clearly since it's not relevant to me at all but the love of bare aluminum and a rudimentary instrument panel do not seem to be a driving E-AB factor these days.

MOSAIC will likely be beneficial to E-AB kit makers if they're in a position to maximize its advantages. Sling seems to have an advantage in that regard (Rotax and build-assist). I think that Van's dependence on Lycoming will be increasingly problematic for them as they try to get the RV-15 off the ground and as the benefits of MOSAIC unfold.
 
N8DAV8R said:
I have an unpopular opinion in contrast to most of what I'm seeing here. I'm only a little bit surprised by that, but the proof is kind of in the pudding. Most of the commentary here is that the problem for Sonex was that everything has gotten too fancy and expensive, but Sonex was the opposite of that. They were the value option, and it didn't work.

I toured Sonex a couple years ago and was impressed. I loved everything I saw and wanted to prioritize it as my second build. Unfortunately the more I looked at the market the more I realized how dismal the resale is. If you start an RV project, chances are that you will not get bit too bad if you have to bail out along the way, or finish and sell it. If you start a Sonex, you're getting bit no matter what. Bad. Mark's comments about being their own competition make perfect sense. There was no case for building one when finished airplanes were far less than kit components.

There's a contingency of budget minded RV builders who just want things to stay the way they were 30 years ago, but it's not how markets for luxuries like airplanes work. People here play poor for sport, but we're all in a luxury market. There's always the next guy with more with money to spend, and airplanes are a like a magnet for dollars. The same thing happens in the car market where a vocal minority pretends they want stripped down low end vehicles, but almost every time a manufacturer responds, it doesn't sell.

Just an alternate perspective of someone building the second airplane they can't afford.
Click to expand...
I agree with a lot of what you said about current conditions. But history tells it a little different. In the late 90's companies like Lancair and Glasair began catering to the deep pocket crowd. Expanding their lines performance, and simplifying construction, build assist to the point of a 2 weeks to taxi program. Just write a big check and they'd have you flying higher and faster than anyone. Then the economy changed and they went away.

Prior to 2020 partially completed or used Vans were priced much the same as Sonex. Usually selling at close to break even for the builder, but below the current new prices. In other words you couldn't build as cheap as you could buy. 2020 allowed some people to work from home, which meant home could be anywhere. These folks typically had means and needed/ wanted a way to get back and forth to see family and friends who were now changing locations. That is what has driven this bubble, and like all bubbles it will burst.
 
Jjackh10 said:
Prior to 2020 partially completed or used Vans were priced much the same as Sonex. Usually selling at close to break even for the builder, but below the current new prices. In other words you couldn't build as cheap as you could buy.
Click to expand...

I disagree. I was shopping airplanes and kits pretty seriously in '15-'19. I didn't see this. I started my project in '19 because there was value to be captured by doing the building. I understand you may have been looking at different models or configurations with different results.

Jjackh10 said:
2020 allowed some people to work from home, which meant home could be anywhere. These folks typically had means and needed/ wanted a way to get back and forth to see family and friends who were now changing locations. That is what has driven this bubble, and like all bubbles it will burst.
Click to expand...

Sure. That's what they say. I'm 50. I have heard about this airplane bubble for my entire adult life. The bubble bursting and airplanes getting cheaper is always just around the corner. Dream on.
 
Jjackh10 said:
I agree with a lot of what you said about current conditions. But history tells it a little different. In the late 90's companies like Lancair and Glasair began catering to the deep pocket crowd. Expanding their lines performance, and simplifying construction, build assist to the point of a 2 weeks to taxi program. Just write a big check and they'd have you flying higher and faster than anyone. Then the economy changed and they went away.

Prior to 2020 partially completed or used Vans were priced much the same as Sonex. Usually selling at close to break even for the builder, but below the current new prices. In other words you couldn't build as cheap as you could buy. 2020 allowed some people to work from home, which meant home could be anywhere. These folks typically had means and needed/ wanted a way to get back and forth to see family and friends who were now changing locations. That is what has driven this bubble, and like all bubbles it will burst.
Click to expand...
I feel like the change isn’t subtle. Whole bundles of guys spending $350-400k for a super cub….only to find that once you have it…you’re afraid to take it anywhere but an airport…most insurers won’t cover you if you did….the crusty old super cub for $60k ten years ago is perfectly happy poking holes in his fabric landing on sticks and stones….cuz….why not?

My point was not that GA has to die….it’s just that it is. We have the ability to change it, but only if we change.

$300k RV’s don’t bother me in the least…as long as their yours…not mine.

And I agree it is a cycle and it will change at some point. Lycoming won’t change…cuz they know people will pay $100k for an engine. They’ll keep doing that.

It would be nice to see a 200hp and on down engine…but that could be a long ways off.

Business practices killed Sonex, nothing else….not a lack of customers….not competition from self or others….under-capitalization. Period.

Business practices bankrupted Vans….not a lack of customers, or competition from self or others….

So…trend similarity at both ends of the polar…ought to spell what to look out for as a consumer. Glasair, Lancair, Wheeler, Epic, so many you lose count.

To me, that’s it and that’s all…I’m gonna go back to tinkering on my helicopter, while griping about the cost of RV’s now…
 
Kyle Boatright said:
To tell the new guys what it cost back in the day. In 1996 I bought a 2nd hand, partially built RV-6 tail kit for $600. It came with a C-frame, a rivet gun, sets, hundreds of cleco's, cleco plyers, rivet cutter, countersinks, microstop countersink cage, bucking bars, and everything else but the time, electricity, and compressed air it took to build the sub-kit. A year or so later, I bought a 2nd hand wing kit that came with another tail kit for $3,100 and sold the assembled tail kit for $800, I think. The whole airplane - rebuilt engine, paint, tools, everything cost $43K when it was finished.
Click to expand...
Every time this discussion comes up, one or two people post a story like this, about how you can do it cheaply if you scrounge around... How easy it was "back in the day." The reality though, is that this was only an option for a small portion of the market at the best of times, and that portion is shrinking precipitously over time. Availability of parts to scrounge is near zero in most areas, as anyone with anything of possible use now has access to markets that will pay top dollar for them even in clapped out condition.

Suggesting that anyone getting into the EAB segment can succeed on this path is foolhardy, IMO. It sets false hope in much too large a segment than can be supported in reality. And it certainly isn't a path that would help keep kit vendors alive.
 
N8DAV8R said:
I have an unpopular opinion in contrast to most of what I'm seeing here. I'm only a little bit surprised by that, but the proof is kind of in the pudding. Most of the commentary here is that the problem for Sonex was that everything has gotten too fancy and expensive, but Sonex was the opposite of that. They were the value option, and it didn't work.

I toured Sonex a couple years ago and was impressed. I loved everything I saw and wanted to prioritize it as my second build. Unfortunately the more I looked at the market the more I realized how dismal the resale is. If you start an RV project, chances are that you will not get bit too bad if you have to bail out along the way, or finish and sell it. If you start a Sonex, you're getting bit no matter what. Bad. Mark's comments about being their own competition make perfect sense. There was no case for building one when finished airplanes were far less than kit components.

There's a contingency of budget minded RV builders who just want things to stay the way they were 30 years ago, but it's not how markets for luxuries like airplanes work. People here play poor for sport, but we're all in a luxury market. There's always the next guy with more with money to spend, and airplanes are a like a magnet for dollars. The same thing happens in the car market where a vocal minority pretends they want stripped down low end vehicles, but almost every time a manufacturer responds, it doesn't sell.

Just an alternate perspective of someone building the second airplane they can't afford.
Click to expand...
I agree with most of that...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top