The short answer to your question Russ is yes - you are probably operating pretty close to the flutter limit. (Now I might be very wrong in assuming that the flutter limit is the same for the -4 as it is for the -6,-7, and -8....they were designed at different times, and might very well have different design parameters - but the principles are the same.) Does that mean you are close to imminent disaster? I can't answer that, because we don't know how much margin there is int eh numbers. My personal experience in Phase 1 testing is that I have some margin....but again, I can't quantify it, because I can't ensure that I have truly tested the entire envelope - so I try and stay under Van's limit (well, I might occasionally see a few knots more, but I always bring it back into the box pretty quickly.
As for the increase in TAS at a fixed IAS with altitude, I forget the rule of thumb, but you can compute it with your trusty E-6B (or equivalent) - just assume a standard temperature lapse rate and a fixed IAS, and compute the numbers all the way up as high as you like.
In calm air, TAS and Ground speed should be the same thing, and while the formula to use to turn a four-way GPS run into true airspeed is a little more complex than just averaging the numbers, that is a decent ballpark figure for example purposes. I have no doubt that a -4 with 200 HP is going to be very close to the 200 knot limit, based on what a much heavier -8 with a 180 can do.
Once again, I know there are knowledgeable -4 drivers like Smoky who can probably give you more detailed advice, but this is one of the reasons Van is not hot on people putting much larger engines on his designs - they already operate pretty close to his defined envelope limits.
Paul