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RV-10 completion rate

A

apirkle

Member
I was playing around with aircraft registration databases today and was able to identify 380 registered RV-10s. Van's reports 437 completions, so I'm only missing 57 planes.

I broke down the number of flying -10s by serial number. 363 of the registrations provided builder number as serial number.

For builder numbers below 40500, the completion rate is about 45%. If the 74 planes I'm missing S/Ns for follow the same distribution, that pushes the rate up to about 55% for low S/Ns.

RV10-completions.png


The highest builder number I've seen is 41373 (found in a thread from this August), so only 32% of the tail kits sold have been completed and registered. I would say the 55% real completion rate sounds a lot better.

The drop from 44% to 28% completed for S/N 40500-40599 is interesting. I wonder if that corresponds to kits sold around the time the economy took a nose dive?

Some other random tidbits from the registration data -
  • The highest completed builder number is 41331: N351MA registered to Moonshine Aviation LLC. If kit 41373 was sold just a few months ago, these guys must build awfully fast!
  • 70 aircraft are registered to corporations or LLCs while 357 are registered to individuals (missing this info for the 23 planes in Canada).
  • I found 324 RV-10s registered in the USA, 23 in Canada, 33 in Australia and 1 in New Zealand. I'm guessing that many of the 57 planes I'm missing are located in other countries.
  • I apparently had way too much free time on my hands today
 
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Adam, interesting data. There are a lot of RV -10s built in Brazil. As for the 500-599 numbers, that would have been tail kits sold in 2005 or therebouts.

As a related aside, there are also serial numbers attached to the wing spars, the fuselage cover, doors, and other parts. I've noticed that my numbers have changed only a little as I moved through the kit, suggesting that my 5-1/2 year build may be about the median value.
 
apirkle said:
The database for Brazil show 255 registered RV-10s. Add that to the 380 I found and there are at least 635 flying. Van's tally of 437 is way off!
Click to expand...

Many folks don't see any value in letting Vans know they are flying. I know several myself.

It appears that I'll be right at the six year mark when I anticipate getting my pink slip. Three more weeks in a cast, two more in a boot, then hopefully I can start Phase I shortly there after.
 
A search of the UK register database (G-INFO) shows 10 registered of which 5 are flying - hope to make that 6 late next year or early -14 :D

There may be other kits out there which have not applied for registration yet - it's not required until you actually fly although you can do it before to get the reggie you want. I tried to get G-SPOT but it had already gone........ ;)
 
Hey - I'm 41373...working on the wing kit now. I did see a post a few down the list from builder 41412, FWIW

==dave==
 
Statistics?

I suppose this tells you what the chances are of an individual tail kit/serial number getting completed, but I think what most folks are more interested in is: what are the chances of an individual builder finishing his/her kit? I am the third owner of my tail kit and I know others who bought previously owned tail kits and other subkits. The builder completion rate will be much lower, don't know if it's possible to estimate it accurately, though. I just knew that when I started, my completion rate was going to be 100% :)
 
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