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New Orders?

mstrauss

mstrauss

Well Known Member
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Has anyone ordered a new kit, unrelated to their correct build? That is, new or repeat builder making an order for a new project? I have not dug into the court docs to find a report from Vans on new orders. I'm not sure if they are even reporting that. Just trying to understand if people are feeling comfortable enough to place an order, and have not been priced out with the latest increases. After all that is the key metric for Vans to move past all this.

I do wish Vans communicated more on how things are going, Ex: We shipped X kits, had Y revenue, on target +/- Z%, etc. The vacuum just leads to conjecture, which tends to be negative. I guess we will have to wait for any filings on Jan. numbers.
 
mstrauss said:
I do wish Vans communicated more on how things are going, Ex: We shipped X kits, had Y revenue, on target +/- Z%, etc. The vacuum just leads to conjecture, which tends to be negative. I guess we will have to wait for any filings on Jan. numbers.
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IF one goes and reads through the court documents, you will find out that Van's Aircraft agreed to pay the guy that is leading the reorganization $650 per hour. I would rather have that guy spend his time getting things running correctly than communicate with the masses.
 
When you look at the December monthly report there is money flowing into the trust account. So people are putting new deposits down. The report does not have enough details to say if its new builds or just additional kits for existing builds.

Oliver
 
What I remember is that all orders would be processed based on orders that created the best cash flow for Vans. My interpretation is that new orders would have priority because they create the best cash flow. Not saying that my interpretation is worth anything though.
 
mstrauss said:
Has anyone ordered a new kit, unrelated to their correct build? That is, new or repeat builder making an order for a new project? I have not dug into the court docs to find a report from Vans on new orders. I'm not sure if they are even reporting that. Just trying to understand if people are feeling comfortable enough to place an order, and have not been priced out with the latest increases. After all that is the key metric for Vans to move past all this.

I do wish Vans communicated more on how things are going, Ex: We shipped X kits, had Y revenue, on target +/- Z%, etc. The vacuum just leads to conjecture, which tends to be negative. I guess we will have to wait for any filings on Jan. numbers.
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I was told yesterday that re-orders have surpassed 75% , so the feeling at Vans is cautious-optimistic.
 
Reorders aren't going to tell this story. We obviously don't know how many, but some non zero percentage of those orders are people who are essentially trapped because they were so far along in the project that reordering at the new price is just the best bad option.

I think the op is correct; new customer orders will be the metric that shows how much trouble vans will have rebounding from this. A reasonable metric would be how many empennage kits they are selling compared to historic averages. I'll bet they've taken a significant hit on true "new" customer orders.

The question is; will that business rebound or have they damaged the brand to a point that there's a permanent impact.
 
I have just ordered RV14 tail, wing, fus, and finish kits over the last 4 weeks. I received quick responses to all questions, received order confirmations, and was (unofficially) told to anticipate 6 months for the tail and wing kits, 12 months for the others. We shall see, but I feel optimistic that the machine is back on track
 
Desert Rat said:
Reorders aren't going to tell this story. We obviously don't know how many, but some non zero percentage of those orders are people who are essentially trapped because they were so far along in the project that reordering at the new price is just the best bad option.

I think the op is correct; new customer orders will be the metric that shows how much trouble vans will have rebounding from this. A reasonable metric would be how many empennage kits they are selling compared to historic averages. I'll bet they've taken a significant hit on true "new" customer orders.

The question is; will that business rebound or have they damaged the brand to a point that there's a permanent impact.
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They need both to survive so reorders are part of the story… . DIP funding based on their own projection will run out mid year and they are underperforming against their own plan. Reorders will buy them another 12 months maybe a little bit longer as the people that reordered are likely to also buy the other kits they need to finish. That assumes that they can actually ship product at a good pace. New orders will make them stay in business indefinitely.

I can’t fault them that they are focused on the next 12 months right now…. .

Oliver
 
Desert Rat said:
I think the op is correct; new customer orders will be the metric that shows how much trouble vans will have rebounding from this. A reasonable metric would be how many empennage kits they are selling compared to historic averages. I'll bet they've taken a significant hit on true "new" customer orders
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This is the elephant in the room question and I quite simply don't know. I'm new to the scene with a -14 empennage that was delivered post filing and the intention of continuing the build so long as getting the parts to finish is possible. Pretty optimistic on that front. The twinkle in my eye is that there'll be an engine more modern than a 1930s tractor to pull it through the sky.

One of the things that I was strongly questioning prior to order though is how is the implementation of Mosaic going to impact Vans? Even with the Chapter 11, Vans is still the best kit plane company in a field littered with losses. Specifically wrt Mosaic, will pilots be given more options that bypass the build? Prior to ordering the 14, I seriously flirted with the idea of a Sling 4 or a Bristell. Heck I was about to move forward with the Sling when I saw Mojogrip's former sling on the ramp and just how tiny it seemed. Even at my leanest I am built like a bear wrestler. As for the Bristell, it would've had to have waited for Mosaic to finalize so that we could leverage its full performance without going through the SLSA to ELSA chicken dance.

Maybe I'm all wet on this but my belief is that there is pent up demand from a large(ish) segment of pilots that would like to fly something nicer than a clapped out 172 rental, have disposable income but cannot rationalize Cirrus money. I think that is where the puck is going and it is the greatest risk/opportunity to Vans long term.
 
james bakeman said:
I received quick responses to all questions, received order confirmations, and was (unofficially) told to anticipate 6 months for the tail and wing kits, 12 months for the others.
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Assuming these are not quickbuild kits, my gut tells me they need to speed up the turnaround to convert orders to cash. 6 and 12 months lead time isn't going to cut it. They should have kits on the shelf ready to ship especially with the new 'no changes to kits' policy.
 
NavyS3BNFO said:
Assuming these are not quickbuild kits, my gut tells me they need to speed up the turnaround to convert orders to cash. 6 and 12 months lead time isn't going to cut it. They should have kits on the shelf ready to ship especially with the new 'no changes to kits' policy.
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I think that is where they want to get, but with all the delays and LCP issues, there are a lot of parts needed just to service all the existing customers. You have to have some form of backlog from time to time, otherwise you can't manage the highs and lows without having over capacity and excess inventory overhead..
 
But a backlog is what is causing people to think twice. It really is a double edged sword. I do think that now that people are starting to get their orders again that the negative publicity might start to quieten down and new orders start to come in.
 
NavyS3BNFO said:
Assuming these are not quickbuild kits, my gut tells me they need to speed up the turnaround to convert orders to cash. 6 and 12 months lead time isn't going to cut it. They should have kits on the shelf ready to ship especially with the new 'no changes to kits' policy.
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They have specifically stated they are trying to REDUCE inventory, and convert it to cash, not the other way around. They are busy selling everything already produced and are only making parts as needed to fill kit orders for missing components.
 
I have ZERO knowledge on the current specifics of Van's efforts at the moment but ...

I would GUESS that they will continue to work their way out of this and as the smoke clears, those who are in the market for a "new" plane will find that after all is said and done, there few options that exceed the value made available in the segments where they compete. Even after they have raised prices and people feel "burned", when the reality of the marketplace becomes clear, demand will go up. They probably won't get back to the "peak demand" brought on in part by the COVID surge. But that is a "good thing". Too much demand is very hard to manage on so many levels. Either deliveries are "too late" or prices get raised "too high" or systems break down. None of these are desired.

A year from now, if they work on it, I can see a great recovery, and potential improvement of, "The Brand" and thus continued success for the company of which many of us are current and future customers.
 
RV6_flyer said:
IF one goes and reads through the court documents, you will find out that Van's Aircraft agreed to pay the guy that is leading the reorganization $650 per hour. I would rather have that guy spend his time getting things running correctly than communicate with the masses.
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$650 an hr😳 a 10 hr day is $6500. I can't imagine but those kind rates could sink a good company. I'll bet he's first in line to be paid😏
 
riobison said:
$650 an hr😳 a 10 hr day is $6500. I can't imagine but those kind rates could sink a good company. I'll bet he's first in line to be paid😏
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I would expect it is in his best interest they succeed as well. Much more likely to get hired by the next distressed company as well…
 
Back to the OP, I see one message in this thread from a new or repeat builder. That is not to say there are not more out there, but it's kind of concerning.
 
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