Van's Air Force
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Could you cope with this
- Thread starter shiney
- Start date
gmcjetpilot
Well Known Member
$100 USD per barrel of oil
Yep oil is expensive, gas is expensive. I feel your pain. We complain about $4.00/gal in the USA. Not that your pain makes me feel better. Look on the bright side, pretty soon a pint of Guinness will be cheaper than petrol, cheers.
Yep oil is expensive, gas is expensive. I feel your pain. We complain about $4.00/gal in the USA. Not that your pain makes me feel better. Look on the bright side, pretty soon a pint of Guinness will be cheaper than petrol, cheers.
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captainron
Well Known Member
I just fueled-up with several hundred gallons of Jet-A yesterday at $2.93/gal including all taxes. Not too far from there is another FBO charging $7.01/gal for Jet-A. I'm sure the FBO I bought from is making a profit selling at $2.93; they are not a charity! Everytime I think about the folks in the middle-east that are making life harder for us right now, I see profiteering like this and I can't help but wonder who's really sticking it to us!
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AlexPeterson
Well Known Member
Oil at $100 a barrel is inflation equivalent to what oil cost a barrel in 1980. It doesn't seem to be demand driven right now, but speculation driven.
cytoxin
Well Known Member
today?
no way, but they know how to break it to us. they run it up to about 12$ A gallon the drop it back to 10 we think its cheap. i really dont under stand the whole thing anyway. they go up we go up whats the point. isnt that why its called inflation? not really any different in the end. just the profit made in the run....Just my oversimplified view.
Today in England, a litre of MOGAS just went through £1.00 per litre, so that's £4.55 per UK gallon ($9.10 per gallon). I'm not sure what AVGAS costs at the moment but considerably more than MOGAS. Could you cope with this?
Shiney
no way, but they know how to break it to us. they run it up to about 12$ A gallon the drop it back to 10 we think its cheap. i really dont under stand the whole thing anyway. they go up we go up whats the point. isnt that why its called inflation? not really any different in the end. just the profit made in the run....Just my oversimplified view.
Not disputing your statement, but I'd love to see how you calculated this out! BTW, I am old enough to remember auto fuel at $0.19/gal, and 3 cent stamps!
I think it's a combination of demand and speculation; Speculators are putting their money into gold and oil instead of the usual safe havan, the dollar. In the short term oil and gold are better investments than cash and how long the dollar can continue to weaken is anyones guess. Then add to this the huge demands from China, India and the emerging economies and that's probably where the answer lies.
rzbill
Well Known Member
Roughly Correct
Alex is roughly correct about the relative cost of oil per barrel now compared to 1980.
One calculation method:
A quick internet search turned up $35/bbl in 1981. For an inflation indicator, a similar search for CPI in 1980 and 2007 found 78 and 202 respectively. A little cypherin' an' figurin' gives 35*(202/78) = $91 per barrel today.
The few years around 1980 were +50% spike in price compared to the long term average oil prices. Does that mean there is hope that oil will go down? No Clue. The 1980 era prices were due to the Iran revolt and the Iran/Iraq war which caused their production to plummet. Current price spike began 9/11 and is continuing with the Iraq conflict.
Alex is roughly correct about the relative cost of oil per barrel now compared to 1980.
One calculation method:
A quick internet search turned up $35/bbl in 1981. For an inflation indicator, a similar search for CPI in 1980 and 2007 found 78 and 202 respectively. A little cypherin' an' figurin' gives 35*(202/78) = $91 per barrel today.
The few years around 1980 were +50% spike in price compared to the long term average oil prices. Does that mean there is hope that oil will go down? No Clue. The 1980 era prices were due to the Iran revolt and the Iran/Iraq war which caused their production to plummet. Current price spike began 9/11 and is continuing with the Iraq conflict.
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NYTOM
Well Known Member
That hurts
Wow Pete! I just realized that I remember those prices too. But then again, I was only making $0.90 an hour at my first real job.
I am old enough to remember auto fuel at $0.19/gal, and 3 cent stamps!
Wow Pete! I just realized that I remember those prices too.
But then again, I was only making $0.90 an hour at my first real job.Truth is that we have no say in the price and it will just keep escalating. What we do in the future is the big question. Say it takes 5 years to build your plane, when you are done the price of avgas could double or triple.
In the old days I flew my Glasair at 75% power / 18gph. Avgas costs 4 times more now, and I fly my 7 at 8gph. So im still paying double to what I did back then and am doing it at least 70knots slower.
Where will we be in 10 years time?
In the old days I flew my Glasair at 75% power / 18gph. Avgas costs 4 times more now, and I fly my 7 at 8gph. So im still paying double to what I did back then and am doing it at least 70knots slower.
Where will we be in 10 years time?
captainron
Well Known Member
Wow Pete! I just realized that I remember those prices too.
OK, let's think about this. Forgetting taxes, when you were making $0.90 an hour and gas was 19 cents, you had to work 12.66 minutes to buy a gallon of gas.
Now, if you're making say $35.00 an hour and gas is $3.20, you have to work just 5.5 minutes to buy a gallon.
To really put some things into perspective, if you were the first on on your block to own a color TV, it probably required 6-7 months total income to purchase it. Now you can buy one before lunch!
MacNab
Well Known Member
Yup, speculation. I don't think the supply or demand has changed that drastically since the end of May. Greedy futures traders. Sooner or later fear will kick in and the market will correct...for a while.
Mark Albery
Well Known Member
Shiney's comparison is slightly misleading. Unleaded Mogas at ?1/litre is equivalent to US$7.87 per US gallon (the imperial gallon is 20% bigger than the US gallon). UK is neither the cheapest nor most expensive in Europe for Avgas or Mogas. The underlying cost of the Mogas is about ?0.39 / litre the rest being excise duty and VAT (sales tax). Avgas in the UK is typically ?1.35/litre (US$10.60/ USG).
It's probably not a lot more expensive in real terms to what it has always been here. What is evident in Europe is a big rise in the new VLA class (similar to the LSA) with their predominantly Rotax power and quite respectable performance.
What we are also desperate for is a plug in replacement for the 150-250HP engines that is efficient, reliable and runs on non-specialist fuel - ideally motor fuel. I suspect it will need to be one of the big players that bites the bullet and does so. The diesel offerings, so far, have failed to impress.
It's probably not a lot more expensive in real terms to what it has always been here. What is evident in Europe is a big rise in the new VLA class (similar to the LSA) with their predominantly Rotax power and quite respectable performance.
What we are also desperate for is a plug in replacement for the 150-250HP engines that is efficient, reliable and runs on non-specialist fuel - ideally motor fuel. I suspect it will need to be one of the big players that bites the bullet and does so. The diesel offerings, so far, have failed to impress.
Eddie P
Well Known Member
How about an electric powered RV
I know it is not a reality right now for an RV, but there are ultralights flying and for sale today running motors on battery power.
Soooo... We grow a lot of sugar cane like Brazil, make higher power density alternative fuels to keep the powergrids electrified to charge our RV batteries with... then we can fight over water we need to grow the crops with and the dwindling supply of oxygen...
Wait, that was way off base - I was actually just reading the screen play for the next Kevin Cosner film. Sorry.
I know it is not a reality right now for an RV, but there are ultralights flying and for sale today running motors on battery power.
Soooo... We grow a lot of sugar cane like Brazil, make higher power density alternative fuels to keep the powergrids electrified to charge our RV batteries with... then we can fight over water we need to grow the crops with and the dwindling supply of oxygen...
Wait, that was way off base - I was actually just reading the screen play for the next Kevin Cosner film. Sorry.
MSFT-1
Well Known Member
A couple thoughts
I lived in the UK from 1999-2001.
There are almost no big private vehicles there. There are minivans (called people movers) and you will see an occasional Jeep cherokee but no Escalades, Navigators, Expeditions, Suburbans etc. Most people drive cars with small engines (90 to 120HP as I recall).
Many companies (including mine) provide a company car and a petrol card as part of your compensation. You don't pay for the fuel (though you pay income tax on the benefit).
The train systems work pretty well in the UK. They are comfortable and reasonably fast. Some might say they are not particularly safe as evidenced by a few high profile accidents while I was there. They are very expensive compared to similar trains in the US (other than the London underground which is pretty reasonable).
I lived in the UK from 1999-2001.
There are almost no big private vehicles there. There are minivans (called people movers) and you will see an occasional Jeep cherokee but no Escalades, Navigators, Expeditions, Suburbans etc. Most people drive cars with small engines (90 to 120HP as I recall).
Many companies (including mine) provide a company car and a petrol card as part of your compensation. You don't pay for the fuel (though you pay income tax on the benefit).
The train systems work pretty well in the UK. They are comfortable and reasonably fast. Some might say they are not particularly safe as evidenced by a few high profile accidents while I was there. They are very expensive compared to similar trains in the US (other than the London underground which is pretty reasonable).
Paul Thomas
Well Known Member
The price increase we're seeing in the US comes from speculation and the devaluation of the dollar since oil value is denominated in $. The issue is that oil at 120 is still cheap to many, so we're likely to go there.
All that to say we've seen a bigger hike at the pump in the US than what our friends in Europe have felt.
All that to say we've seen a bigger hike at the pump in the US than what our friends in Europe have felt.
LettersFromFlyoverCountry
Well Known Member
Haven't heard anybody volunteering to host a refinery in their community, yet.
See, the real question in all of this is "where's the price point"? In other words, what's the price of av fuel -- or auto fuel for that matter -- where people change their driving (in most cases) habits? We haven't reached that yet.
I watch CNBC a lot and I hear a lot of experts saying $100 a barrel oil isn't going to put us into a recession. I think they're full of it. With Wall Street going nuts, oil going up, the dollar falling against other currencies, banks getting themselves in trouble... a refusal of America to pay for the war NOW instead of later... I don't think there's enough ledges to accomodate everyone.
See, the real question in all of this is "where's the price point"? In other words, what's the price of av fuel -- or auto fuel for that matter -- where people change their driving (in most cases) habits? We haven't reached that yet.
I watch CNBC a lot and I hear a lot of experts saying $100 a barrel oil isn't going to put us into a recession. I think they're full of it. With Wall Street going nuts, oil going up, the dollar falling against other currencies, banks getting themselves in trouble... a refusal of America to pay for the war NOW instead of later... I don't think there's enough ledges to accomodate everyone.
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This kind of talk really makes me wonder if building an rv is even a wise decision. I know that when I retire in 22 years that I will have plenty cash in my 401 to do just about anything. Problem is that I would like to have the plane flying in around 7 years. I think now that gas will be so expensive that flying will be a thing of the past unless your extremely wealthy. By the way, does anybody have a really good estimate of how long the wells will produce oil? Some times I hear 50 years left and others 100 years left. They always seem to find other pools of oil that they didn't know were there. The one thing I have heard numerous times though, is that we are at out max capacity for extracting oil out of the ground and demand still keeps on rising. Not Good.................
