Ceiling Forecast Question

[blueflyer]

I recently had a pilot tell me they could could get the forecasted ceilings 72 hours in advance. Where can I get ceiling information 72 hours in advance? I use the NOAA website and forecasted ceilings only go out to +18 hours.

 

[Kyle Boatright]

Among others, Windy.com has that information.

 

[RV8JD]

Not quite 72 hours, but more than 60. Scroll down the page.

https://www.usairnet.com/cgi-bin/launch/code.cgi?state=WA&sta=KAWO

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[LittleDave]

MOS report goes out three days

 

[MIKE JG]

MOS report goes out three days

Dave beat me to it. MOS via ForeFlight, select a station, select weather and right next to the TAF for that station is the tab for MOS forecasts.

MOS = Model Output Statistics, computer program takes the weather forecast models and derives a forecast for a given location.

 

[airguy]

Those are available as noted, but anything past 24 hours is historically pretty inaccurate. The forecasting science hasn't quite gotten that good yet.

 

[LittleDave]

Those are available as noted, but anything past 24 hours is historically pretty inaccurate. The forecasting science hasn't quite gotten that good yet.

Agreed!

I often look at temp and dew point graph on Weather Underground 10 day forecast. Quick and easy.

 

[DennisRhodes]

Windy.com is about as good as I've found for VFR extended forecasting.. the cloud base layer indicates IFR, MVFR ceilings as well as cloud base models up to 10 days.

 

[DennisRhodes]

Indicated ceilings for SE. Tuesday about noon EST .. see how it works out. That storm may be a "noreaster" there developing for wed or thur in the NE! Update 12 noon EST this ceiling forecast was right on the money for my location!

 

[blueflyer]

Those are available as noted, but anything past 24 hours is historically pretty inaccurate. The forecasting science hasn't quite gotten that good yet.

I agree. I will check out the suggestions made here, although I always tend to gravitate back to the NOAA aviation site for my planning.

 

[dmattmul]

MOS via ForeFlight

Even in Florida the MOS reporting has been amazingly accurate including ceilings and cloud bases.

 

[blueflyer]

Even in Florida the MOS reporting has been amazingly accurate including ceilings and cloud bases.

Not having Foreflight, is there another way to access the MOS reporting?

 

[LittleDave]

Not having Foreflight, is there another way to access the MOS reporting?

May not be helpful, but I get the MOS with Garmin Pilot and not Foreflight.

 

[RV10Pilot]

Not having Foreflight, is there another way to access the MOS reporting?

National Weather Service graphical forcasts. https://graphical.weather.gov/sectors/conus.php?element=Sky But this shows Sky Cover not ceilings.

 

[DerekS]

windy.com

... has a view called "Cloud Base", that depending on which model you use goes out over a week.. obviously the further away the worse the accuracy but its great for a quick look at the odds of getting home after a long weekend.

Derek

 

[blueflyer]

Thursday afternoon

As an interesting check, I thought I would compare the forecast for Thursday afternoon from both websites.

Windy.com shows the ceilings forecast to be at KDTN will be at least 5000 feet
AirNet shows the ceilings forecast to be at DTN approximately 2000 feet.

In any event, both of these sites are new to me, so I will try and incorporate them in my IFR flight planning.

 

[blueflyer]

Thursday ceilings at KDTN averaged about 2000 feet. Airnet did pretty well here.