Chris Hill
Well Known Member
I am looking at the experimental/amateur built aircraft accident statistics over the last year, and based on what I?ve found, it doesn?t appear that EAB aircraft (or certified aircraft) are significant safety hazards when compared to automobile transportation.
I went to the NTSB website and collected data from the accident query search tool for 1 Jan 2011 through 31 Dec 2011 which I will post here for your review.
With regard to EAB aircraft accidents, I found that there were 71 people killed in 241 accidents. There are approximately 600,000 certified pilots in the U.S. Assuming, perhaps falsely, that they all actively fly at some point during the year, the data shows that .012% of pilots (not counting the passengers which would further reduce the percentage of aviation participants) are killed in EAB accidents. Compare this with automobile deaths, at 42,636 out of approximately 210,000,000 million licensed drivers for a .0203% death rate, and you can see that the EAB accident rate is a little more than half of that.
Now compare total EAB accidents to total automobile accidents (these do not take into account the number of passengers). EAB accidents, 241. Car accidents, 6,420,000. For the same number of licensed participants, EAB has a .0402% accident rate versus auto at 3.05%. Cars have 76 times more accidents per operator than EAB aircraft have!
How about general aviation as a whole though? There were 1380 certified general aviation accidents in the U.S. This is .23% (not 23%) of participating pilots. Cars have 13 times the number of accidents that certified GA aircraft have!
What I learned from this research is that people who dwell on aviation safety and EAB safety are doing more harm than good in the aviation community by accepting responsibility that isn?t ours to accept. Based on what I?ve found, we don?t have a problem here. In fact, we set the example of what safety should be!
Lets step back and see how this fits into the big picture. In economics, there is a term called diminishing returns which states that in all productive processes, adding more of one factor of production will at some point yield lower per-unit returns. Apply this to the cost of safety, and you can see that it might very well cost 10 times more to get an additional unit of safety as it did to get the previous unit. What does this do to aviation? It prices it out of reach for new entrants. For example, the NextGen system, which is coming on line and mandates ADS-B in 2020, will add an additional cost in the name of safety. The irony is that the FAA is imposing this with the idea that air travel will increase by 50% in the next 15-20 years, yet the number of certified pilots in the US is decreasing. I am wondering where all these pilots are going to come from!![Cool :cool: :cool:](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7)
I went to the NTSB website and collected data from the accident query search tool for 1 Jan 2011 through 31 Dec 2011 which I will post here for your review.
With regard to EAB aircraft accidents, I found that there were 71 people killed in 241 accidents. There are approximately 600,000 certified pilots in the U.S. Assuming, perhaps falsely, that they all actively fly at some point during the year, the data shows that .012% of pilots (not counting the passengers which would further reduce the percentage of aviation participants) are killed in EAB accidents. Compare this with automobile deaths, at 42,636 out of approximately 210,000,000 million licensed drivers for a .0203% death rate, and you can see that the EAB accident rate is a little more than half of that.
Now compare total EAB accidents to total automobile accidents (these do not take into account the number of passengers). EAB accidents, 241. Car accidents, 6,420,000. For the same number of licensed participants, EAB has a .0402% accident rate versus auto at 3.05%. Cars have 76 times more accidents per operator than EAB aircraft have!
How about general aviation as a whole though? There were 1380 certified general aviation accidents in the U.S. This is .23% (not 23%) of participating pilots. Cars have 13 times the number of accidents that certified GA aircraft have!
What I learned from this research is that people who dwell on aviation safety and EAB safety are doing more harm than good in the aviation community by accepting responsibility that isn?t ours to accept. Based on what I?ve found, we don?t have a problem here. In fact, we set the example of what safety should be!
Lets step back and see how this fits into the big picture. In economics, there is a term called diminishing returns which states that in all productive processes, adding more of one factor of production will at some point yield lower per-unit returns. Apply this to the cost of safety, and you can see that it might very well cost 10 times more to get an additional unit of safety as it did to get the previous unit. What does this do to aviation? It prices it out of reach for new entrants. For example, the NextGen system, which is coming on line and mandates ADS-B in 2020, will add an additional cost in the name of safety. The irony is that the FAA is imposing this with the idea that air travel will increase by 50% in the next 15-20 years, yet the number of certified pilots in the US is decreasing. I am wondering where all these pilots are going to come from!