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  #41  
Old 08-14-2009, 07:47 AM
f1rocket's Avatar
f1rocket f1rocket is offline
 
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Location: Martinsville, IN
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I think there is an untapped market of fliers for the RV-12 that will influence the market conditions for some period of time. But when there are 10 RV-12's for sale, and they are outfitted exactly the same, and they perform exactly the same, the only differentiators will be condition and price. Whoever is the most interested in selling first will simply lower their price to less than the others. This will drive the price down and the only counter to this is if the demand exceeds the supply. At the rate the -12s are going together, I suspect (but don't know for sure) that the supply will easily meet the demand.

The other RV models don't sell in the same manner as the -12 because each one is unique and can be sold individually based upon those merits. There will always be the case where someone likes your unique RV and "just has to have it". Those one-off sales are not indicative of typical market forces.

The overall economic market for airplanes will improve over time, just like the rest of the market so I'm confident prices will come back up slowly. I think it's been said many times that no one builds an airplane for the investment value. Again, I think if you can enjoy the hobby and eventually recoup at least your investment, that's not bad and it's certainly better than most hobbies. I know that in the kit car area, the cobra builders are also lamenting the fact that cobras are selling for less than the cost of materials right now. We are not alone.
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Greenwood, IN

www.pflanzer-aviation.com
Paid through 2043!
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RV-12 - Completed 2014, Sold
427 Shelby Cobra - Completed 2012, Sold
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Last edited by f1rocket : 08-14-2009 at 07:50 AM.
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  #42  
Old 08-14-2009, 09:23 AM
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N395V N395V is offline
 
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Location: Mendon South Carolina
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No one is spouting gloom and doom, we are just offering an opinion on the question, which was what will an RV 12 sell for in todays market.


Quote:
you just can not afford the fair price of a RV-12.

just a lack of marketing and sales skills that will permit lower prices.
What follows has been plagarized but it is basically economics 101.

We all place an "intrinsic value" on our aircraft. Unless we find an uninformed buyer or unless our particular aircraft has a feature or features different and significantly desirable from similar aircraft it will sell at fair market value.


The price recieved has little to do with our pride or superior marketing skills.


Fair market value (FMV) is an estimate of the market value of an item is, based on what a knowledgeable, willing, and unpressured buyer would probably pay to a knowledgeable, willing, and unpressured seller. An estimate of fair market value may be founded either on precedent or extrapolation. Fair market value differs from the intrinsic value that an individual may place on the same asset based on their own preferences.
Since market transactions are often not observable for assets such as privately-held businesses and most personal and real property, FMV must be estimated. An estimate of Fair Market Value is usually subjective due to the circumstances of place, time, the existence of comparable precedents, and the evaluation principles of each involved person. Opinions on value are always based upon subjective interpretation of available information at the time of assessment. This is in contrast to an imposed value, in which a legal authority (law, tax regulation, court, etc.) sets an absolute value upon a product or a service.

In United States tax law, the definition of fair market value is found in the United States Supreme Court decision in the Cartwright case:
The fair market value is the price at which the property would change hands between a willing buyer and a willing seller, neither being under any compulsion to buy or to sell and both having reasonable knowledge of relevant facts. The most common reference I can find to "Fair Price" is usually in conjunction with an organisation, government, or political entity. interfering with the free market to please a constituency. It is usually synonomous with imposed value. I have known many who were proud of their planes (rightly so) who indulged in vigorous and excellent marketing and held out for a "fair price" based on their idea of intrinsic value. Their planes have been for sale for many years now.

During those years They have been paying taxes, insurance, and hangar fees as well as the costs of marketing. When they finally sell these added costs will either decrease their profit or increase their loss "effective yield" .

So perhaps the initial question should have been, what will my effective yield be if I sell my RV 12 in todays market.

Sure 1 or 2 may sell for big bucks but they will either be show winning creampuffs or an uninformed buyer.

So I still think $40K-$50K (in todays market) tops thus the goal is to minimize your negative yield.
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Last edited by N395V : 08-14-2009 at 09:26 AM. Reason: sp
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  #43  
Old 08-14-2009, 02:04 PM
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Jetguy Jetguy is offline
 
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Well I have to agree to disagree with you Milt. The RV12 Kit was released April 2008. In 16 months 260 kits have been sold. We will have to make an educated guess where each kit is at in the build process. On Aug 12th Vans started selling the engine Kit. By the Aug 13th at 2pm West coast time when I ordered mine all 25 of the first batch of engines were sold out $250,000.00 in a day and a half. Anybody know how many RV9s, or 10s, were sold in the first 16 months after the release of those kits? I?ll bet you not 260. I would also speculate that at OSH next year there will be at least 50 RV12s there, probably more. So when people see that many planes at one location the going to become very interested. And most of these people are not going to have time or a shop to build their own RV12. If anything this will cause older RVs like the 3s, 4s, & 6s to lose some value because they will become even older technology. I think you guys are way underestimating the no medical option here. Also the 12 is going to open up a large new market of newbie pilots who are just plain scared of the other RVs, especially tail draggers. A good salesman is going to clean up with this plane. J
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  #44  
Old 08-14-2009, 03:01 PM
vernhendershott vernhendershott is offline
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jetguy View Post
Well I have to agree to disagree with you Milt. The RV12 Kit was released April 2008. In 16 months 260 kits have been sold. We will have to make an educated guess where each kit is at in the build process. On Aug 12th Vans started selling the engine Kit. By the Aug 13th at 2pm West coast time when I ordered mine all 25 of the first batch of engines were sold out $250,000.00 in a day and a half. Anybody know how many RV9s, or 10s, were sold in the first 16 months after the release of those kits? I?ll bet you not 260. I would also speculate that at OSH next year there will be at least 50 RV12s there, probably more. So when people see that many planes at one location the going to become very interested. And most of these people are not going to have time or a shop to build their own RV12. If anything this will cause older RVs like the 3s, 4s, & 6s to lose some value because they will become even older technology. I think you guys are way underestimating the no medical option here. Also the 12 is going to open up a large new market of newbie pilots who are just plain scared of the other RVs, especially tail draggers. A good salesman is going to clean up with this plane. J
Can I get a big "Ah-men"

Many people at 65+ do not wish to spend 2500 hours building a plane just to find that when they get it done they can not pass the medical to fly it. Others want to fly a nice aircraft right now and with the RV-12 ELSA they know it was built just the way Van's said to so it is safe and sound. There will be no unsafe modifications like cutting out a big hunk of spar to run wires and pipes such that the wing may fall off or like two RV-8's we have here that have two extra fuel tank in the leading edge outside of the regular tanks for a total of 70 gallons of fuel, great for travel but was it ever engineered correctly?

Have a good day.

Best regards,
Vern
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  #45  
Old 08-14-2009, 04:46 PM
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N395V N395V is offline
 
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Quote:
Well I have to agree to disagree with you Milt

I truly hope I am wrong and you and Vern are right. Time will tell.
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  #46  
Old 08-14-2009, 04:55 PM
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kentb kentb is offline
 
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Default Strange.....

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jetguy View Post
If anything this will cause older RVs like the 3s, 4s, & 6s to lose some value because they will become even older technology. I think you guys are way underestimating the no medical option here. Also the 12 is going to open up a large new market of newbie pilots who are just plain scared of the other RVs, especially tail draggers.
What make you think the the technology is newer in the RV12? It is just different so that the plane can preform a different mission.

Medical issues will be the biggest driving force behind LSA. I think that you are correct that some will look to go LSA because of it 'slower' performance.

Taildragger vs nose dragger may be an issue for some airplane buyers, but that will not drive them to buy LSA. The 6, 7, 8 and 9 come both ways.

Not trying to put a damper on anyone idea about making planes and selling them.

Kent
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  #47  
Old 08-14-2009, 09:13 PM
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roadrunner20 roadrunner20 is offline
 
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I think one of the benefits of owning a 12 is that they have removable wings.

In an area where hangar rental rates are very high, it offers a substantial savings for those who choose to trailer to the airport.

You could be talking about 5-7k/year.
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  #48  
Old 08-14-2009, 10:36 PM
mcjon77 mcjon77 is offline
 
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I doubt that new RV-12s will sell in the $40-50K range, as Milt suggested. Very few builders are willing to take a 20-30% hit in materials fees for a plane that they just built, unless they are in some dire financial straits. I still see the $60-70K range, with it most likely being closer to $60K than $70K.

Any higher and the market will be saturated with pro-built RV-12s built buy retired guys that just like building, and are happy with an extra $10 per hour to supplement social security and their pensions. Van gives a 600-900 hour build time. With jigs and a pro builder who has done one before, I bet they could crank them out at 500-600 hours per plane.

The whole "newer technology" of the RV-12 lowering the value of other RVs doesn't make much sense to me. Newer technology won't change the 60+mph cruise deficit that the 12 has with all of the other RVs. If people are deciding between an RV-12 or an RV-6, there real question is whether they want an LSA or not.

In many ways, buying an experimental pre-built eliminates one of the arguments against chosing a non-LSA. We have all read stories or known people that spent years building a plane, only to lose their medical right before or right after finishing. Those stories are heartbreaking, considering all of the effort they put into their project. A small part of the reason I chose to build an LSA legal experimental is so I don't have to worry about this happening to me.

For those that are buying it is a lot simpler. If you have a medical, buy an RV6 if you want. If the time comes when you cannot pass a medical anymore, sell the 6, and use that money to buy a 12. No dealing with 2000+ hours of effort put into a project that you can no longer enjoy.No need to buy an RV-12 if you can get a 6 at the same price or less, unless you just like the 12 for reasons other than being an LSA.

The one big advantage I see for the RV12 is that they could almost completely take the prebuilt Zodiac 601XL experimental market. The RV-12 seemed like a better plane on paper before, and with the bad press Zodiacs got over the whole wing fold issue, I can't see why anyone would chose a Zodiac over an RV12. Nice Zodiacs used to be on the market for mid $60K and higher (assuming no auto-conversion engine). Those same planes are on the market now for LOW $50K to high $40K. Furthermore, even at that price, they are not selling.

At the end of the day, this is all speculation. It will be interesting to see how things turn out.
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  #49  
Old 08-22-2009, 06:32 PM
jerryab jerryab is offline
 
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Location: Northwest Arkansas
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Default How Much?

I used to have an A&P that would always answer me with the same answer each time I asked how much it was going to cost to repair an airplane. So how much will a finished RV 12 sell for..."Answer this first, how long is a piece of string?" You know it all depends.

Jerry Martin
RV6A
N331RD
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  #50  
Old 08-22-2009, 07:41 PM
Fl Mac Fl Mac is offline
 
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I have seen that one before it is not the second. There have been others advertising to build parts as well. Look at the posted date. It is a month old and not taken. Flight crafters is advertising a completed RV-12 for 85K and no takers yet. These adds do not set the price (or value). The price is set on each and every one of them just the minute someone writes a check. I do hope they go for 85k or more though.
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Last edited by Fl Mac : 08-22-2009 at 07:44 PM.
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