NTSB is claiming a 10% fatality rate on EAB first flights and IIRC 14% on new owners first flight in EAB make and model.
As Mr Carrol point out below that is not what they are saying.
Posted by Allan Carroll
Actually I don't think this is what they're saying. The actual statement is quoted below; its rather poorly worded. It appears that they meant to say is that 10% of the EAB accidents occurred on a first flight, not that 10% of first flights ended in an accident. Big difference.
I have finished reviewing 2008 and 2009 final accident reports.
This negate any comparison between your analysis and the NTSB study based on 2011 data.
The greatest cause of EAB fatal accidents is loss of control, frequently at low altitude and sometimes following attempted low level aerobatics. If the NTSB were SINCERELY interested in reducing the EAB accident rate they would petition the FAA to require spin training and upset training for all fixed wing pilot certificates
First off there is no evidence that the NTSB personnel involved in this study
are anything less than sincere in their desire in reducing accidents.
There is also no data to suggest that spin and upset training would resolve the issue of loss of control during low level acro, buzzing and other stupid low altitude activities. Spin training was , in fact, at one time a requirement for a private pilot’s license. Apparently the data at that time suggested it did not save lives and indeed caused some fatalities during training.
If you blow an acro maneuver or enter a spin at 200' or less AGL all the training in the world ain't gonna affect the outcome.
If one were to remove the stall spin, loss of control, controlled flight into terrain and weather accidents, the RV accident rate would be excellent.
If you did this for any category or for all aircraft the accident rate would improve greatly. In my opinion there is no such thing as an excellent accident rate. Bottom line is you can't fix stupid.
Let's look at what the NTSB was doing a bit more objectively.
There is a trend in EABs toward higher performance and greater complexity especially in avionics and engine management. EABs are also becoming a larger percentage of the GA fleet.
It appears to many that there is a trend in the accidents that links fatalities in EABs to high performance, high landing/stall speeds/high wing loading, narrow cg envelopes, complex engine management systems, and complex avionics. It also appears to many that there is a correlation between EAB accidents and 1st flight by the builder but especially a new owner(purchaser).
Any study starts with a hypothesis(suspicion) and the purpose of the study is to determine if there is a statistical significance (or lack thereof) between actuality and the hypothesis. There is seldom certainty in studies of this nature and often they leave more and new questions to be answered.
It appears to me ,from this study, that there is some significant correlation between 1st flights of new owners/builders and accidents both fatal and non fatal.
My own experience having gone through 2 phase 1s on high performance aircraft with EFIS's and autopilots convinces me that a formal flight testing program of appropriate scope and depth and construction of a POH was exceedingly helpful in making me a safer pilot in those aircraft. I also think in both instances transition training would have been exceedingly helpful.
In following this forum as well as others for many years I have seen too many examples of first flight posts followed not too many days/weeks later by: "the wife and I took our first trip in NX1234". Clearly there is no way they flew off their 25/40 requirement. Now how many (if any) of these ended up in accidents I do not know but the NTSB study noted that there was often no evidence of formal flight testing of EABs involved in accidents. Doesn’t mean it didn't happen just the investigator could find no evidence.
My own experience(and opinion) is that 25 hrs wasn't enough and 40 was barely adequate.
There are many of us on this forum that have sold our aircraft only to read in a news bulletin or on the forum the next day that our former plane crashed, killing the occupants.
Others may disagree but I believe there is a statistically significant correlation in these aircraft between lack of training/POH and accidents. I think the authors of the study also believe this.
I am not a fan of big government but I believe the authors of the study have a sincere desire to decrease accidents and save lives. Nothing nefarious is going on here.
An NTSB study does not mean automatic or even probable FAA regulations to follow. Hopefully it stimulates thought and conversation and behavioral change. If it does that and saves just one life then the study was a success.
There are many things in life you just cannot criticize:
MOM
Apple Pie
Nuclear non proliferation
and any attempt by anybody to improve aviation safety.
My hat is off to the individuals that did this study.