C

Chicago

Member
Well guys,

I am working on my wings and have the tail finished. I am about ready to order my fuselage but I am thinking about throwing in the towel because I am just not sure if I can afford to keep the plane flying in a few years with the way gas prices are today. Will gas prices keep me grounded when I'm ready to fly in a few years? I can only imagine what 100LL is going to be in the future and I am already sacrificing a ton of money to build this plane. I am about $13K in so far with my kit, tools and misc. parts for my project. Should I get out now and sell while I'm in relatively cheap or should I drop everything I have over then next few years and then find out its going to cost me hundreds later in fuel every flight?
 
You have to spend your money on something...

I don't like where things are heading either, although I'm hoping all of this over speculation on oil will eventually collapse and the price will drop. Otherwise, there's always a chance for alternative powerplant options in the future. That's one reason I didn't want to dump a whole lot of money into a nice new engine.

I'm pretty much in the same boat. Wings almost done, about to order fuse. I'm worried about the price of gas, but I'm not gonna pack it up and head home just because of what might happen. I suppose if gas skyrockets I just won't get to fly as much as I'd like.
 
The straight answer: No one knows.

You will get used to today's prices. I grew up on $.329 per gallon with frequent price wars dropping the price to 19 cents or even lower.

The 1973 price increases to about 65 cents stunned us, but we got used to it. Same when it went to 85 cents. Somewhere in the late 80's there was a crash in the oil industry and we saw some relief, Houston almost became a ghost town, but prices went back up again as people bought bigger cars and other factors kicked in.

We got used to those prices and we'll get used to the prices we pay today. Europeans have long been used to expensive gas, and they still drive. There will be adjustments, maybe even down a little now and then.

Some differences: 35 years ago, 80% of the world oil supply was controlled by corporations, today 80% is controlled by governments. Typically, state owned industries focus on keeping people employed, fail to invest in new technology or capacity expansion, fail to respond to markets, fail even to maintain equipment. 35 years ago, few people in China or India had cars, China exported oil, now they import it. Now, in Chengdu near where the earthquake hit, they have 3 ring roads around the city, Portland, Oregon has one. This suggests increased demand and shortages in the future. But with the current higher prices, surpluses are accumulating. There is a huge amount of oil under Colorado in shale, also in tar sands in Canada and off US shores in the continental shelf. People are buying smaller vehicles, but it takes about ten years to replace most of the US fleet. Then there are the unknowables: Will there be another mideast war or other disruption? Will the Congress get their heads screwed on straight and do something sensible about increasing supply, such as letting us get at the oil we have? (Oops, I'm talking about Congress here and sensible doesn't even belong in the same sentence.) Will increased prices stimulate exploration and bring new fields online? Will new technology allow cheap recovery of more oil from existing fields? Will we convert to fuel cells? Will we figure out a way to get oil from coal cheaply? How soon will we be getting diesel from algae, which is supposed to have the potential to produce 100,000 gallons a year per acre?

Again, the straight answer: No one knows.
 
Don't Quit!

If it's not fuel it's insurance or time or braces or vet bills or honey do stuff.
The list goes on and on:D. Fuel will continue to rise:mad:. You will find a way to supplement you income and fly some how. We all do:). If you give up on your dream then thats all it will be a dream or worse ... I should of:eek:. It's up to you but I say "never give up and never surrender":cool:
Alan
 
150 years ago...... no one got to do this

150 years from now...... ?

It's your chance and your turn right now in the span of human history to do something truly amazing.

Philosophy lesson over, Econ to follow:

Sample problem, fuel price uncertain.

Buy a future gasoline contract for delivery at the estimated time the aircraft will be ready to fly. One of 3 things will happen.

1. Market price for gas goes up; Sell the contract and use the profits to buy airplane gas.

2. Market price for gas goes down; Sell the contract at a loss and buy cheap airplane gas.

3. Market price for gas remains the same; Sell the contract and buy airplane gas.

Your problem is now solved (fuel price uncertain). There will be a cost for the insurance to do this but that's the idea behind insurance, limit your risk and sleep well.
 
RScott said:
You will get used to today's prices. I grew up on $.329 per gallon with frequent price wars dropping the price to 19 cents or even lower.

The 1973 price increases to about 65 cents stunned us, but we got used to it. Same when it went to 85 cents. Somewhere in the late 80's there was a crash in the oil industry and we saw some relief, Houston almost became a ghost town, but prices went back up again as people bought bigger cars and other factors kicked in.
Click to expand...
I don't know... I've lived through those price increases you mentioned, and this seems to be much bigger. When gas went past $3 I was shocked. Now it's a year later and we're almost to $4 (many people already are), and there doesn't seem to be any sign of it slowing down. I've never seriously considered riding my bike to work in 95 degree heat and 90+% humidity until now.

I am planning on starting my RV-8 this fall and the choice of an engine is a big unknown for me now. I'm hoping that something will sort itself out by the time I get to that stage. I think 100LL engines will start phasing out in a few years, and it will be harder and harder to justify an engine that runs on 100LL. If I can find a reliable alternative fuel engine with ~200 hp, and runs off of reasonably priced fuel, I will definitely go for it.
 
Don't know if it helps to know this, but in 1981 the average price for auto gas was actually $3.21 (adjusted for inflation). I guess my point is that we have had very high prices in the past and we survived.
 
The fuel of the future

Keep building your RV. Things are changing but a built and flyable RV is not. You may have to up grade your engine to use plant oil. Thats PO1 or some thing. Many people argue about this but keep your mind open. Go to Oshkosh and keep up with what's out there. Mean while keep bucking those rivets. If I knew what 10 years will bring I'd be happy to tell you!
 
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Keep building

I went through the same period of doubt, for much the same reasons about two weeks ago. I decided to keep going because things always seem to work out somehow. If an RV is what you want you will make it work.
One thing I have learned is that nothing ever stays the same (except the incompetence and greed of politicians) people are using less fuel now, prices will come down, or you will will get used to them, or something.
Just for giggles my first aviation job was being a lineman and pumping gas. 80 octane avgas was 35.9 cents a gallon, of course I made about $200 a month so it was still expensive.
Don't give up!
 
szicree said:
Don't know if it helps to know this, but in 1981 the average price for auto gas was actually $3.21 (adjusted for inflation). I guess my point is that we have had very high prices in the past and we survived.
Click to expand...

The thing about prices adjusted for inflation is that they never contrast this with the fact that wages have been falling behind inflation by an average of about 5%. That 5% hurts!
 
The Reagan solution

The last time the Oil Shieks discovered they had us by the short hairs, all it took to break their will was a threat to turn our massive supply of coal into synthetic fuel. Reagan sent a bill to congress that was going to subsidize synfuel and the cartel broke down shortly thereafter. The bill never even became law.

The oil shieks have a problem and they know it. The only thing they have to sell is oil, and if they raise the price too high, it encourages us to find an alternative.

Synthetic fuel is a viable option at $30/barrel. The only reason nobody is making it at $130/barrel is that there is no guarantee the price is going to stay that high. OPEC can flood the market with cheap oil anytime they want.

The answer doesn't have to be subsidies. All we need is a tarrif to support the $30 level. Above $30 -- no tarrif. Under $30, whatever it takes to make it $30. And by the way -- China has as much coal as we do. They will do likewise if we show them how.

The mere threat of a price support tarrif would force the oil producers to drop their price immediately. We could be paying $2/gallon by Christmas if we had a leader like Reagan running things. And it wouldn't cost us a cent in taxes.

But with the current crop of bozo's and wannabe bozo's, don't hold your breath. Instead of making use of all that coal (not to mention that 60 year supply of oil in Alaska), they've got us burning food in our cars.

Personally, I'm thinking about a Rotax for my Rv4 project.
 
Yes

I'm also at the wing stage and having the same questions. I think I will make whatever modifications may be necessary to allow fuel flexibility in the future. I love flying, but have cut flying to half that of a year ago, now it's for business, trips or concentrated practice. I've stopped the regular $150 hamburger runs for now. If I'm doing this I can imagine that there are many more pilots like me doing the same thing. 100LL demand will dwindle and next will they shut down those plants?

I'd love to put the 200 HP engine in, but if I can't see spending $35K for the engine and not find fuel for it. I'll likely go with a used engine to get the plane in the air and then see how things shake out. I've only flown spam cans with the fastest being a Mooney, as I see it, the 150HP RV 7 still beats that bird. It may not save much on fuel, and as far as resale value goes, the demand for them will go south as well as their prices.

In 1980 as a young pup engineer I was in the Synfuel industry, it died because the break even cost then was $34/barrel and the public lost interest when fuel prices collapsed. Alcohol is a joke, but it will likely be with us for the foreseeable future, the GA industry will need help with some innovations that allow us to burn the stuff safely or we'll need engines that burn Jet A or biodiesel, or some boutique fuel.
 
I have data on fuel consumption (dispensed fuel) that has dropped about 75% in the last four years at a local airport. That is not "getting used to high prices." That is drastic reduction in flying.
 
I gotta' just keep on building!

I'm also at the wing stage, and have thought for quite a while that I need to keep my options open with regard to engine/fuel solutions for this RV-8.

At this point, I still have plenty of work to do before I really am forced to make a decision about a powerplant. I can't imagine not having this project to do or have some kind of hope for the future.

Heck, even yesterday I was thinking maybe the solution for scratching the aviation itch is to go with an electric winch launched sailplane scenario.:rolleyes:
 
Yes, over the long term, it will keep going up: World population is increasing, per-capita energy use is increasing and the supply of oil, measured in output per day, is not increasing. Sorry to be bleak so early in the morning; perhaps I need more coffee. :rolleyes:

Keep building!

TODR
 
The whole story?

Ron Lee said:
I have data on fuel consumption (dispensed fuel) that has dropped about 75% in the last four years at a local airport. That is not "getting used to high prices." That is drastic reduction in flying.
Click to expand...

Yeah, but how many are flying to other airports to buy cheaper gas?
 
competive prices

My home base airport, Hicks typically has fuel prices .40 to .90 cents higher than Bridgeport, only a few minutes from here. The RV flyer's here rarely buy from our own airport.
 
It'll all work out in the end

We had a similar problem years ago with tea.

We had to have a party in Boston.
 
This oil mess we are in is bleak, and it will get much worse.

World demand is rising around 10% each year, world supply appears to have peaked and are falling in the 3% range. Result, prices will continue to rise compounded by the weak dollar and the US trade imbalance. High octane Avgas will get a lot more expensive because it requires more oil to produce than mogas does. The aviation industry refuses to adapt to biofuels and furthermore, it refuses to address the inevitable change to lower octane, non-leaded engines. The world we live in is changing; we need to adapt to it.

The Dems in congress, and particularly the extreme left factions now in control of their party, refuse to acknowledge the real cause of this dilemma. They blame the oil companies that deliver oil to the US at bargain prices (compared to the rest of the world). They continue to block new sources of domestic energy supplies and instead, want to selectively tax the life out of big oil- because it is easy and popular to the masses who are hurting from these high prices. That move will only move need oil supplies to other better markets, make our fuels more expensive, and continue to obscure the rebuilding of new energy sources.

We are 30 years behind most of the world in nuclear energy development, and 20 years behind in needed refinery capacity. The real culprits here are the pseudo-environmentalists who place their emotions over science. Congress seems to be mired in partisan bickering, meanwhile, it does nothing to enact a reasonable energy policy or plans to combat the real problems we face. They prefer to fight questionable battles like global warming, protecting Polar bears, and political correctness issues instead.
 
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Auto gas is no longer an answer to high fuel prices!

If you were thinking of switching to auto gas to lower your operating costs, better think some more.

Here in AZ they switched to ethanol year round. Even tho the clean air crowd mandated ethanol from Nov 1 to April 1, ethanol is in the fuel all the time in AZ. Why? Cause profits are higher thanks to the tax credit our "so called" representatives gave the ethanol producers.

Apparently, it's spreading throughout all the states.

Ask me how I know. Ask me how a perfectly good O-360 runs on ethanol. Fortunately, I figured it out before I flew at altitude and that stuff is now in my wife's car.

The fellow who suggested another tea party had it right.

Barry
Tucson
 
I read this article here.

It talks about Johnathan Goodwin who was able to convert a hummer to bio-diesel. Now it runs at 80mpg, 80% cleaner, and twice the horse power. I looked at some of the threads in the alternative engine section about turbo diesel engines, and it seems like the majority of the people there strongly recommend against it because it's too heavy, not proven, and they say the companies who claim to offer these engines have 10-20 years to go to get them up to the quality of a lycoming. I've talked to aircraft mechanic about a turbo diesel engine. He says that 100LL's days are numbered, and would switch to bio-diesel in a heart beat.

Who knows... hopefully this will become clearer by the time I stick an engine on mine.
 
Ah, yes, "peak oil". The problem with the peak oil nuts is that they have been saying for 35 years that production and reserves will peak in the near future and when the near future arrives and reserves are just as great as before, they say just a few years more. The scenario has been repeated several times, "just a few years more" and oil has not peaked. Someday, they will be right, of course and they will crow, they were right all along--but wrong for 35 or 40 years.

The oil is there. Idiotic governments that nationalize oil supplies and our own idiots in Congress that keep oil off limits, don't allow refineries to be built are to blame for much of the problem. And presidential candidates' solutions are "we'll investigate them, make 'big oil' pay", tax their windfall profits", etc. Congress has investigated "big oil" every time we have had big spikes and they have found nothing except some political hay. BTW, oil company profits last year worked out to 8.3 cents per dollar of sales. US average for all manufacturing industries was 8.9 cents.

Yes, avgas deliveries are down to about 25% of what they were in 1983. See: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/a403600001m.htm for the data. Note that part of the drop was the switch by STC holders to mogas. The plummet in avgas sales is all the more reason to find a mogas based replacement for 100LL.
 
RScott said:
Ah, yes, "peak oil". The problem with the peak oil nuts is that they have been saying for 35 years that production and reserves will peak in the near future and when the near future arrives and reserves are just as great as before, they say just a few years more.
Click to expand...

It sure looks like peaking has been happening, and Hubbert predicted the US production peak pretty well, about 20 years in advance:
peakoil.gif


The oil is there. Idiotic governments that nationalize oil supplies and our own idiots in Congress that keep oil off limits, don't allow refineries to be built are to blame for much of the problem.
Click to expand...

On the other hand, it seems like a really bad idea to ignore externalities involved in extracting and burning fossil carbon.

--Paul
 
Below is an article from Business Web. It will be interesting to see if anything comes of it. I've also posted a link below to an interview with a representative of the company. One thing that struck me about the interview was that he alluded to a desire by the company not to use food based Bio Mass but to use Bio Mass that would not compete with existing food production. The other point he makes is that this fuel is NOT ethanol but it is produced from ethanol. We'll see.....

From Business Wire:
WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Swift Enterprises Ltd. has unveiled a new general aviation fuel that is less expensive, fuel-efficient and environmentally friendlier than any on the market, said co-founder John Rusek.
The general aviation industry includes all flights other than military and scheduled airline flights, both private and commercial. Data on Swift Enterprises’ 100 percent renewable general aviation fuel was presented April 28 at an annual meeting of an international committee that oversees aviation fuel standards. Unlike current biomass fuels, SwiftFuel© is comprised of synthetic hydrocarbons derived from biomass. Rusek said it can provide an effective range (distance between refueling) greater than petroleum while its projected cost is half the current petroleum manufacturing cost.
The innovation by Swift Enterprises’ propulsion and energy researchers meets or exceeds the standards for aviation fuel as verified by nationally recognized laboratories, said Rusek, a professor in Purdue University’s School of Astronautics and Aeronautics Engineering.
Swift Enterprises, founded seven years ago at Purdue Research Park, is led by Rusek and his wife, Mary, who have been involved in the field of energy more than two decades. The meeting was held by the Coordinating Research Council of ASTM International in Alexandria, Va. ASTM International is one of the largest voluntary standards development organizations in the world.
“Our fuel should not be confused with first-generation bio-fuels like E-85, which don't compete well right now with petroleum,” Rusek said. “For general aviation aircraft, range is paramount. Not only can our fuel seamlessly replace the aviation industry’s standard petroleum fuel, it can outperform it.”
The general aviation industry each year uses nearly 570 million gallons of 100LL aviation fuel, which is toxic, increasingly expensive and non-renewable. In contrast, testing has shown SwiftFuel© is 15 to 20 percent more fuel efficient, has no sulfur emissions, requires no stabilizers; has a 30-degree lower freezing point, introduces no new carbon emissions, and is lead-free, John Rusek said. In addition, he said, the components of this fuel can be formulated into a replacement for jet/turbine fuels.
The aviation industry has been the only form of transportation to use leaded fuel (tetraethyl lead) since an Environmental Protection Agency ban went into effect 30 years ago. However, that lead-free exemption will cease in less than two years.
“The general aviation industry, both domestic and foreign, is demanding a solution to this dilemma,” said Mary Rusek, Swift Enterprises’ president. “Our new, patented technology can provide the 1.8 million gallons per day required by the industry in the U.S. by utilizing only 5 percent of this country’s existing bio-fuel plant infrastructure.”
“John and Mary Rusek have devoted their lives to coming up with practical, renewable energy,” said Joseph B. Hornett, senior vice president, treasurer and chief operating officer of the Purdue Research Foundation, which manages the Purdue Research Park. “This fuel could change aviation history and be an economic boon for the state of Indiana and the Midwest, where we can abundantly grow the resources to produce SwiftFuel©.”
Swift Enterprises officials are in discussions with the Federal Aviation Administration, which has initiated a cooperative agreement with the company to evaluate the fuel.
Click to expand...
Here is the link to the interview: http://www.avweb.com/podcast/podcas...es_SyntheticFuel_JohnZiulkowski_197843-1.html
 
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Remember prespective...

Let's say gas goes up by $3 a gallon. $4-$7 or $6-9 or whatever. In a 10 gph airplane that's $30 per hour in fuel expense more than before the increase. That's $3000 a year if you fly 100 hours - which is a lot for a private pilot.

Rather than giving up the project and hanging up something that you love, why not just modify your plans a little to deal with it? What if you saved $10,000 in the course of building the project? Put in the bare bones interior rather than the fancy leather stuff. Don't buy the full IFR package, go VFR simple. Get the cheap prop rather than the fancy super zoomy one. Get a mid time used engine rather than the new Lycoming or the tricked out experimental one.

Saving $10,000 in the construction is not hard to do if you need to. That $10K will be like buying fuel at last year's prices for 3 or 4 more years.

We adapt to find a way to do what we want. Everything will be OK - don't worry.
 
"Will fuel prices keep going up?"

Probably.

Along with automobile fuel, groceries, taxes, housing, etc.

I don't like paying over $5 a gallon for aviation fuel any more than the next guy. However, the other day I had a thought. :eek: ( I could call it an "epiphany," but I don't think it's that great an idea!)

It occurred to me that with the increasing price of both aviation fuel and automobile fuel, we could reach a point someday where fuel cost for a trip of any reasonable distance and greater would be much less for the RV than for the car. Maybe we're already there. Some of you analysts can hit the spreadsheets and figure it out. I already know for one or two folks in an RV versus a 172, the fuel mileage of the RV makes a big difference, not to mention the time to travel.

But then there is the thrill and adventure of flying an RV...priceless!

Keep pounding those rivets...and don't give up. It'll be worth it someday.
 
Gasoline Prices Adjusted for Purchase Power and Inflation

Gasoline Prices Adjusted for Purchase Power and Inflation:

GasolinePriceAdjusted4PP.jpg
 
I don?t know of what part of this article is true or a Red Herein, But I do believe that much of the price I pay for gas is pure Oil futures speculation. So a loss of control (if there was any control) to Oil speculation could be true?
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JE06Dj08.html

"In January 2006, when the CFTC allowed the ICE Futures the gaping exception, oil prices were trading in the range of US$59-60 a barrel. Today, some two years later, we see prices tapping $120 and trending upwards. This is not an OPEC problem. It is a US government regulatory problem of malign neglect.
By not requiring the ICE to file daily reports of large trades of energy commodities, it is not able to detect and deter price manipulation. As the senate report noted:
The CFTC's ability to detect and deter energy price manipulation is suffering from critical information gaps, because traders on OTC electronic exchanges and the London ICE Futures are currently exempt from CFTC reporting requirements. Large trader reporting is also essential to analyze the effect of speculation on energy prices.
The report added:
ICE's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and other evidence indicate that its over-the-counter electronic exchange performs a price discovery function - and thereby affects US energy prices - in the cash market for the energy commodities traded on that exchange......Most of this additional investment has not come from producers or consumers of these commodities, but from speculators seeking to take advantage of these price changes."
 
One of the problems in estimating oil reserves is that they always estimate recoverable reserves at some specific price. If you can't pump it at a profit, it doesn't count. As efficiency and technology improve, reserves increase. As the price goes up, they adjust estimates to show what reserves are at that new price. It's a moving target.

So as the price increases, when your graph is redrawn at some time in the future, it will probably show increases once again. And if the politicians got out of the way, it would show huge increases in US production--it is estimated that there are a trillion barrels in the shale deposits under Colorado.

Here's an example of how our laws reduce our oil production capability. Pipeline rates are regulated by the Feds. There is a field in Colorado that can produce oil at $30 per barrel. There is no pipeline to the field and at the regulated rates, no one is willing to build one. So the oil just sits there.
 
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Some real stats

There's nothing like a thread on oil prices to draw out the crank conspiracy theories.

But let me give you some stats that are REAL.

The world is on an oil binge and is currently consuming oil at 85.7 million barrels PER DAY(2007 data)... and that's up 9 million barrels per day on a decade ago.

World air travel alone has doubled in the last 12 years. At the moment the world's jet airliners alone are burning the equivalent of a full Olympic swimming pool full of Jet A every 5 minutes (that is NOT a spelling mistake....every 5 minutes !!!). That's a good way of putting it for those who just can't come to grips with the enormity of the current consumption of this finite resource.

Incidentally, it is also relevant in the context of this discussion that the US has 4% of the world's population but guzzles nearly 25% of the world's oil. In other words the US consumption of oil is totally profligate.

Are oil prices going to increase.....is the Pope a Catholic???
 
This happens every year

Summer demands bring prices up and up and up. They drop after summer.

Same with oil stock prices. Buy in September/October, sell in July/August.

The only way to stop it is to cut down on consumption. If fuel were too expensive, that would happen.

I'm riding my bike to work as much as possible. I don't fear global warming and there is still plenty of oil left in the ground. Mostly its for exercise. I notice a lot of people cycling to work and I'm hoping it has some impact on fuel prices.

As a bonus if I loose some weight my airplane will perform better.
 
. In other words the US consumption of oil is totally profligate.

"profligate"?
Dude, were just a bunch a pilots here... english only PLEASE.... <BG>
Gotta go look that one up...
;-)
 
Here's my guess (worth exactly what you paid for it...) ;)

For all the reasons stated above - mainly soaring transportation demand from billions of Chinese and Indians plus finite supply - I don't see oil prices going down much for very long ever again. We might get back down to $100/barrel in real dollars, but in my amateur opinion the days of $3.00 avgas (or $2.00 mogas) are gone for good.

What really should happen, though, is that at least in the developed countries cars will eventually almost all go electric - either hybrid or plug-in only. Wind power is coming along, solar starts to get competitive at these energy prices, and I do believe we're going to get back into nuclear. Especially if the new Chinese and Indian consumers go electric instead of heat engine, global demand for oil will more or less flatten out (stop going up, at first, and eventually go down).

Hopefully then, as I see it, we'll live in a world with $5 or $6 avgas, but *hopefully* (he repeated) not have to face $10 or $12 avgas. That's still more than I'd prefer to pay, but I could live with it.
 
Oil production peaking is real, and inevitable

RScott said:
Your chart only shows a flattening of US production. It is dated 2004 and everything to the right of the vertical line is projection, a guess, not fact. Other authoritative sources show world peak oil around 2020 or later.
Click to expand...

Hard to believe we're looking at the same graph. It shows peaking of production in about 20 different areas, including but not limited to US fields, with peaks occurring in the past. It doesn't claim peaking has already occurred in any other countries, or worldwide, but it does show that peaking is a real, documented phenomenon. I got to say, I really don't think that labeling people "peak oil nuts" who have noticed these facts is helping you get your point across.

You can argue about whether the worldwide oil production peak has already happened, or will happen next year or in 5 or 10 years. But facts suggest that inevitably it will happen, and whenever it happens of course a lot of oil will end up "just sitting there" -- because it is too expensive (in terms of total realized enviromental costs, or ultimately just in terms of energy inputs) to extract it, refine it, and burn it.

But then -- since worldwide liquid fuel demand probably isn't going to peak in anything like that same timeframe -- the smartest thing to do now isn't to try to develop ever more energy-intensive fossil oil extraction techniques, but to concentrate on finding environmentally sustainable, carbon-neutral alternatives.
 
Oops! You are right it is world production. I read the text above and only looked at the top of the curve--Yes, it does show world oil production. And I apologize for my hasty response.

However, it is dated 2004, so anything to the right is still a guess. And instead of dropping as projected, world oil production has increased slightly since 2004 and and flattened, but not dropped abruptly: 83.12 million barrels per day in 2004, 84.6 in 2005, 84.59 in 2007. For the data, download the World Oil Balance spreadsheet from the Energy Information Administration at http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/oilother.html

And if you download from the same website the spreadsheet for world refining capacity, you will see the world capacity is 85.3 million barrels per day. Hmmm. Maybe it isn't oil production capacity that is limiting right now--perhaps it is refinery capacity!

And from the bottom of the same website there is a link to a site showing projected supply going to 88 million barrels per day in 2009.

Note also from your graph, that for some counties, they hit a peak in the 70's, while other countries, specifically Norway and Mexico were just getting going. The easy oil has been found, but new discoveries are still being made--note one off the coast of Brazil and the US in the Gulf of Mexico. Mexico will probably peak soon, not because they are running out of oil but because their state run oil industry has been grossly mismanaged.

And help me out--can you find Russia on the graph? Maybe I missed it. Russia has lately been one of the largest oil exporters, exporting about 7 million barrels per day in 2006 and has the 8th largest oil reserves.

Sure, someday we'll hit a peak. The problem with Hubbert is that when he was wrong about the timing, he just moved the goalposts. That's been going on since 1956. No one knows when it will be, neither Hubbert nor anyone else. Consensus at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:PU200611_Fig1.png seems to be around 2010, but some show 2040 or later (the curves go off the chart) and several show a peak substantially lower than existing levels of production.

If we are smart and lucky, when it happens we'll be doing a better job with electric, wind, nuclear, fuel cells, maybe even methane hydrate, etc. so it won't matter.
 
JDRhodes said:
Let's say gas goes up by $3 a gallon. $4-$7 or $6-9 or whatever. In a 10 gph airplane that's $30 per hour in fuel expense more than before the increase. That's $3000 a year if you fly 100 hours - which is a lot for a private pilot.

Rather than giving up the project and hanging up something that you love, why not just modify your plans a little to deal with it? What if you saved $10,000 in the course of building the project? Put in the bare bones interior rather than the fancy leather stuff. Don't buy the full IFR package, go VFR simple. Get the cheap prop rather than the fancy super zoomy one. Get a mid time used engine rather than the new Lycoming or the tricked out experimental one.

Saving $10,000 in the construction is not hard to do if you need to. That $10K will be like buying fuel at last year's prices for 3 or 4 more years.

We adapt to find a way to do what we want. Everything will be OK - don't worry.
Click to expand...

I'm already planning on going bare bones so that I can afford to build. I started biking to work today, and if I can keep that up, it will save me $240/month (and more as gas keeps climbing). (And it will help me fit into an RV-8 cockpit better :D

Like you say, adapt to find a way to do what you want.
 
Chicago area fuel prices.

I've been considering giving up the project for about six months now. Yes, at one time I had a great passion for what I was doing but times are changing. My first and most major problem in the Chicago area is hangar space...It's just not available..I've been on lists for three years now at six different airports and nothing has changed. I haven't moved on any list anywhere. Fuel costs well here's what I've just gotten off the web and this infrmation is thirty days or more old.

PWK - $ 6.83
DPA - $ 6.06
06C - $ 5.32
JOT - $ 5.10

With alternative fuels being developed even Dunkin Donuts has started charging for their buckets of used cooking oils. I don't see any decline in fuel prices nor hangar rates or availability ever, not ever.

Just my 2cents.

Regards,
Ron Kostus
N567RK - Reserved
Interior finishing
RV-7
 
Gas Prices: They have been cyclical in the past

Everyone is saying they won't go down soon. Maybe.

I do like the comments previous to this which are correct in pointing out the US's role in the use of scarce natural resources. We as as a country are 4-5% of the world population and use 25% of the world's resources. In other words, we are using five times our allotted share. Does that sound fair to you? India and China are growing their economies and their needs are growing. In the US, we give our kids a car when they graduate from high school for college. We are consumers first and we are addicted to cheap energy. And as all addicts, the hang-over after the party is hard to come to grips with.

We as American's want it both ways. We don't want to drill wells off Florida, California or the east coast but want cheap fuel. We want to "save" Alaska for future generations, but the ANWR is our best change to find new oil reserves. We are way behind in the use of nuclear energy to generate electricity.

We as RV builders and flyers use our planes for enjoyment and fun so complaining about the high cost of gas is a little bit lame. Planes by the very nature are expensive. Building an RV cuts the cost initially as you are using "sweat equity" to acquire a faster and better plane than the initial outlay. But it will still use lots of gas.

In Louisiana, our state's revenue's is buoyed but taxes on oil and gas. Our real estate is still robust. If you run your air conditioner 24/7, it is almost tolerable. I just wish I had a cool place to work on my plane.

Steve Anderson
RV 7A H-6
Lafayette, La.
 
The game does not go on forever!

Each of us has a finite number of days to remain vertical on this planet and even fewer days before some medical issue reduces the number of flying days.

I will cut down on driving so I can tell Exxon to go to *&^%, but if you enjoy flying, just do it. If you use the airplane to visit friends & relatives, no other method is any cheaper. Fly at 65% power and lean the beast so it's as inexpensive as follows; find friends to split the fuel. But when you're laying in that hospital bed facing the end, remain able to look back and know that you enjoyed the ride.

That's what my father said before his final surgery 16 years ago. As the metaphor goes, "Live every day like it's your last. One of them will be."
 
crazy theory?

Maybe my theory is just a crazy one but I figure the west are on the brink of making major breakthroughs in alternative technologies and that the oil producing countries (and speculators) are aware that their oil days are nigh so they are cashing in whilst they can. OK, it's not going to happen overnight but "on the brink" in industrial terms means years rather than months. Personally, I think that within ten years oil producing countries will be ruing the day they forced the hand of western governments - who, after all are their major customers. I know this theory is not quite as complex as some put forward but to me it just appears to be what it really is all about!


Martin :rolleyes:
 
My vote is we roll up our sleeves and help one another!

Steve A said:
We as American's want it both ways. We don't want to drill wells off Florida, California or the east coast but want cheap fuel. We want to "save" Alaska for future generations, but the ANWR is our best change to find new oil reserves. We are way behind in the use of nuclear energy to generate electricity.
Click to expand...

It's always interesting to hear people repeat manipulative EXXON FRAMES (read George Lakoff) they hear on corporate controlled news. Folks fail to recognize that fossil fuels need to "go bye bye" and alternatives need to replace them for all kinds of reasons.

Had the USA adopted CAFE/mileage standards similar to other countries, we would not be importing any oil. MDI CityCat compressed air cars would already be on the streets of America. That technology was first released in 1867 and perfected in 1973 by an American. MDI claims its product can even be used in "Light Aircraft Engines and APU units".

The answer is not to give Exxon more freebees so they can gouge the public at the pump and further pollute our air, it's to facilitate that American genius known as ingenuity to solve the problem. People need to revisit that area of Alaska that was destroyed by the Valdez and remains polluted 20 years later before they suggest that irresponsible corporation get the chance to inflict even more damage.

Teddy Roosevelt set the precedent when he created the national park system. Thanks to his foresight, we have incredible landscape to view from our canopy, species abound, people have places to visit and recreate, and some semblence of Mother Nature is left intact. Don't ask any hunter or hiker to give that away.

Innovate, don't destroy Alaska or the oceans off Florida to feed an obsolete system that chokes the atmosphere of the very planet we live on. Create a forum on this website dedicated to improved fuel economy and help one another implement alternatives so we leave the old behind us and allow this planet to survive.

If folks like us can build airplanes, we can figure out how to cut consumption and implement alternatives especially if we help one another.

20,000 lobbyists work in DC. Our legislative decision making process has been totally subverted by corporations, but in this instance, WE, as a hobbyist group can make a difference. Rather than carp about what could be and should be done by those "so called" elected officials, WE can start to solve this problem ourselves.

Ok, I'll lay off the caffeine.
 
I think that we should eliminate carpool lanes and make them motorcycle lanes... I'd buy a bike if there was a dedicated lane on the freeway that some douschebag isn't going to come into and run me off the road. Either way, I drive a car that gets 30mpg, and I continue to fly no matter what the gas prices have become. ($5.50 for diesel in Socal..., $5.20 for Avgas....)
 
Ok this is my take. Our fair share, well lets see here, any time there is a problem in the world we are there, we take the brunt and spend the money. So our fair share is whatever we want. If you don't like that thinking tough.

High prices, I will still pay because I like to play, but I will add that what benifit I get from all this is less people flying, so I have fewer conflicts with other airplanes, why? because there are fewer people flying. So I guess I'm paying more for more airspace, so be it.

Yes an alternative fuel should be developed. But until the big boys get out of town, so to speak, or we run out of the fossel fuel, this ain't going to happen. There will always be some sort of fuel to use, but, like I said, until it runs out or the alternative fuel is ALLOWED to be used, aka the profits are there for the right people, it ain't gonna happen.

So what are we to do, use what we have and adapt to the changes coming.
 
Hello all,

I been lurking here for a bit and have been following this thread as well as others and thought I would contribute this site that has a petition going: http://www.americansolutions.com/ No need to contribute

First....Michigan's economy is in very bad shape and with the current fuel prices we are not able to compete on projects that would require us to travel. I am doing my best to combat this by running Diesel service trucks burning 20% Biodiesel. I am an electrical contractor.

Second....High fuel prices have affected me in three different areas. I am a small farmer and the increased fuel and fertilizer costs have offset any profits we may see with the increased crop prices.

Third.....Flying......need I say more.

I urge everyone to go and sign the petition to allow for exploration of oil within our own country.

Thank you,

Steve (MiFlyer)
 
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The only solution now is to drill for oil. We have it but won't get it. Stupid.

Realize that higher CAFE standards means more deaths.
 
Do you travel?

Lets look at this from a comparison of travel cost.

I have family in Kentucky that are 635 miles away. At 20mpg, premium fuel for my car was bumping it's ugly head at $4 per gallon. It takes me 10.5 hours of fairly hard driving and I lose an entire day to make the trip. That's about 32 gallons of fuel for the car (128 bucks). By the time we both eat lunch (fast food 12 bucks), get something cold to drink and get a snack at refueling which we do twice because somebody has to take a bathroom break, add on another 7 to 8 bucks. Total cost of trip, excluding wear and tear, about 150 dollars total.

Hop in your plane, burn 10 gallons per hour @ 200 mph. Knock off 15% for straight line travel and you will get there in less than 3 hours. Let's round to 3 hours. Hmmmm, 30 gallons at 5 bucks an hour = 150 smack a roos.

Last time I flew commercial, it took me 6 hours with connections and around 3c-notes for the round trip

Let compare.......no potty breaks......in there in 3 hours and have a whole day so you really gain 2 because of round trip.......you aren't tired when you arrive......and you get to fly......

It's a no brainer if you travel.

In addition, Mom is 88, Dad is 87. Time to spend with them is priceless. Time away from work is costly.
 
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