I never trust one specific source over another. There's just too many variables.
Instead I collect information from a multiple sources and cross reference them with each other. No one will be able to tell you what the weather will do, they'll only be able to tell you what they believe it could do.
For me, I start with a watching the weather segment on the news a few days before my flight - just to get an idea of what systems/fronts/flows/etc might be factors in the weather.
When it gets closer I use
www.weathertap.com (Subscription Req'd) to get more detailed info.
I cross reference WeatherTap with ADDS.
http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/
Then I take another step in getting 'local knowledge'. A problem with many sites is they tell you what should happen in a perfect world, but many times the forcaster has no local knowledge. In the case of Houston, you really need to understand how the Gulf of Mexico will influence your weather. A Wx Channel guy on the other side of the country doesn't have any local knowledge.
As a result I actually read the narrative weather report written by the local NOAA forcasters in the local NOAA office. They are the people who write the TAF's too. Here's how you can read them:
- Go to ADDS.
- In the top left corner type Houston, Tx.
- Then scroll down to find 'Forum Discussion' and click on it.
That takes you to your narrative description and MUCH more local info than you'll ever get off any map.
Finally, I cross check all that info with a Wx Briefing. There have been times when the Wx Briefing has pointed out items I didn't catch. Or items that have changed.
Usually, by that time, I've got a pretty good idea of the factors influencing the days weather.
No source is better than the other. They're all just information that you need to collect, cross-check, and interpret.
Phil
