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Andy_RR

Well Known Member
I'm doing some business planning for something that may or may not see the light of day, so I'd like to know the trend of E-AB completions. Since Van's is about 50% of the market, would anyone kind enough and who has their RVator's handy post me the issue date and Hobbs reading? I have already all the data from the on-line versions.

I'll post up the resulting graph when I've got enough numbers.

Thanks in advance...

A
 
Interesting thread. I for one would love to see a plot of RVs completed vs. time. Seems like there would be a significant upward trend of late. I don't know if the trend with Vans models would translate to kit completions for other kit makers, as a result of several of the Vans innovations such as matched hole components, quickbuilds available, etc. But then again it might!

Question: What is the source for Vans "Hobbs Meter" on the cover of the RVAtor? FAA Airworthiness Certificates issued? People emailing Vans to tell them that their planes are flying?
 
HERE YOU GO........

Andy_RR said:
I'm doing some business planning for something that may or may not see the light of day, so I'd like to know the trend of E-AB completions. Since Van's is about 50% of the market, would anyone kind enough and who has their RVator's handy post me the issue date and Hobbs reading? I have already all the data from the on-line versions.

I'll post up the resulting graph when I've got enough numbers.

Thanks in advance...

A
Click to expand...

The HOBBS meter was first printed on the cover of Dec. 96 issue and the count was.............. 1523 completed RVS. Then it went like this.....

12/97 1768
12/98 2017
12/99 2340
12/2000 2591
12/01 2798
12/02 3067
12/03 3511
12/04 3964
12/05 4365
12/06 4910
12/07 5535

After that date, the RVator is on line.

Hope this is what you wanted...............:cool:

Warren.
 
Noah said:
Interesting thread.

Question: What is the source for Vans "Hobbs Meter" on the cover of the RVAtor? FAA Airworthiness Certificates issued? People emailing Vans to tell them that their planes are flying?
Click to expand...

Only from people contacting VANS...... and many do not do this. So if you didn't, then call VANS
and get in the count.....:)
 
Andy_RR said:
..Since Van's is about 50% of the market...
Click to expand...

Where did you get that number from? The only number I know of is the number of RVs compared to the total number of EABs. Last time I checked, a little under 20% of all EABs were RVs. Way more than anyone else, but certainly not 50%.
 
gasman said:
Hope this is what you wanted...............:cool:

Warren.
Click to expand...

That's Ed Zachary what I was after! Thanks muchly Warren!

VansCompletions.gif


I guess I was being a bit optimistic when I guesstimated that Van's had 50% of the market. I was basing it on the OSH quote about RV attendance. According to GAMA, it is in reality probably barely 25%. I wonder what the remainder of the 75% is...?

Thanks again for the data!

A
 
gasman said:
Only from people contacting VANS...... and many do not do this. So if you didn't, then call VANS
and get in the count.....:)
Click to expand...

This number is also taken from FAA registration files. However, this still doesn't include the complete picture as some people don't register their aircraft as RVs. Mine, for example, is an A&M-6. (The sixth airplane built by Ann & Mel))
 
Andy_RR said:
I guess I was being a bit optimistic when I guesstimated that Van's had 50% of the market. I was basing it on the OSH quote about RV attendance. According to GAMA, it is in reality probably barely 25%. I wonder what the remainder of the 75% is...?
Click to expand...

Actually 50% might not be a bad number on current builds.
I certify about 100 aircraft a year and about 65% of those are RVs.
 
Thanks for the insight Mel.

Perhaps the other 50% of the fleet are so slow that few can be bothered to fly them all the way to WI :D
 
Andy_RR said:
Thanks for the insight Mel.

Perhaps the other 50% of the fleet are so slow that few can be bothered to fly them all the way to WI :D
Click to expand...

Actually, you are probably exactly correct.:D
I was talking to a factory rep for the Zenith STOL 701. Now there are almost 400 of those birds on the U.S. registry. All are homebuilts. However, there were only a few at Oshkosh (I saw only two, but know of a few others). When I asked him where the others were he said that not many get to Oshkosh because of the distance. These are your traditional low and slow planes that cruise between 80-95mph, over 100mph slower than almost all RVs..

Given good weather, virtually any RV, except possibly the new RV-12 can make it from any corner of the continental U.S. to Oshkosh in a day or two. The canards are another set of higher speed, cross country birds that were plentiful at Airventure this year. I saw the same thing with all of the Wittman Tailwinds there.
 
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Andy_RR said:
That's Ed Zachary what I was after! Thanks muchly Warren!

VansCompletions.gif


I guess I was being a bit optimistic when I guesstimated that Van's had 50% of the market. I was basing it on the OSH quote about RV attendance. According to GAMA, it is in reality probably barely 25%. I wonder what the remainder of the 75% is...?

Thanks again for the data!

A
Click to expand...

The GAMA data looks suspicious...slightly increasing, then a big jump, then a big drop, then a HUGE jump, then flat, then up, down, up, flat. given that those jumps are on the order of thousands of aircraft, it can't be right.

I'd say about the best you could do would be to fit a line or curve, maye with an LSQ, and use that as a coarse estimate.

I wouldn't trust the GAMA data too much just based on looking at it...
 
It would be interesting to see a curve of completions per quarter, that is, "delta completions" to see if there are any trends, cycles, etc., in how many are finished each quarter....
 
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