I ran into some Van's employees in Sheridan later in the day yesterday and they said it is "within 150 miles of us right now" so I guess we know it will for sure be there at least.
Someone sent me a picture of the RV-15 yesterday evening, tied down on a ramp well within 150 miles of Sheridan and about 40% of the way between KUAO and KOSH. Reading the tea leaves, my guess is that it's tied down within 250 miles of Oshkosh right now and will make a Saturday morning attempt at the Fisk arrival.
I wonder how dramatic they want to make it arrival at the show.
Maybe make everyone wait and have it fly in during the 50th anniversary celebration during the airshow on Monday.