sahrens

sahrens

Well Known Member
Having read the recent thread activity on safety got me to thinking about risk management; how I identify and mitigate the risk of GA flying. As I fly full-time for the military risk management is part of the mission plan, the mission brief, the mission and the debrief. But many of the kinds of things we try to identify just do not apply in GA flying. For example, if I am taking off with weather below approach minimums I have to have an airfield within 100 miles that is above approach minimums in case I lose an engine during takeoff. Another example is when the amount illumination goes down at night (more or less moon) the value of the risk increases. There are other metrics but as I said, they really do not apply to GA flying.

But its the idea or process of identifying the risk, assigning it some value and then mitigating it that is interesting to me. How do other folks, people here on this forum with a LOT of flight time, risk manage their GA flying? I am not looking for "I never do ........" rather what kind of scale have you developed that weighs the odds, assigns some value or assists your flying decisions? Do you have a takeoff minimum that has some form of sliding scale to it? How long is too long to be awake and fly? Simple, how do you risk manage your flying?

I am not trying to throw stones or put anyone on the spot. Just trying to get some other perspectives so I can have another tool in the flying toolbox.
 
If you expect a written, quantified set of parameters that you enter and add up to get a GO/No Go value, you won't get it. I evaluate the info I have and make a decision.

It boils down to judgment and knowing your limitations.
 
Ron Lee said:
If you expect a written, quantified set of parameters that you enter and add up to get a GO/No Go value, you won't get it. I evaluate the info I have and make a decision.

It boils down to judgment and knowing your limitations.
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Its interesting that is exactly how we do it at work. Everything has a numeric value that increases due to a wide variety of reasons. Complexity, planning time, crew experience, weather (many weather factors are valued independently like icing, turblence, etc.), illumination and so on.

The numeric values are added together and a risk level is determined. Then a decision is made based on the reward value versus the risk value. Now that system is a little complex for determing if I am going to fly in the traffic pattern, but many items apply to a cross country.

I would be interested in your value system that determines go or no/go. I am not trying to critisize your post, just better understand how you make that decision.

Scott
 
I am not sure that I could analytically define my decision process. Certain factors eg high winds, icing, low clouds, thunderstorms can be an instant no go.

Other time when weather factors are less bad, it may be fine if going east but not over the mountains.

There are near absolutes. I have yet to encounter a situation where I would continue into conditions beyond my abilities to get somewhere. Get there-itis/get home-itis are not a driving force. I have made many weather diversions and weather no go decisions.
 
Backup Plans

What an interesting idea for a thread! I personally prefer to look at risk management from a slightly different perspective than the current ?scoring? system used by the military. That is a good and useful system, but I find it a bit too complex to use before every GA flight. Rather than look at risk factors and giving them a score (which could be a little arbitrary, if there is no real statistics or science behind them as there are for the military factors), I prefer to look at the ?bad things? that can happen (the risks), and then identify at least ONE back-up plan if each of those bad things happen. In essence, I am IDENTIFYING the risks, and then I am identifying a risk MITIGATION for each one.

For instance, I set out on a long VFR cross-country, and the destination weather is worse than forecast. Backup plan? I can air file IFR, or I can divert ? so long as I do so early enough (fuel available) and good weather is in reach. How about an alternator failure? Well, if I am VFR, I just use the main battery for minimal radios, and the battery-powered GPS as a backup to get to a good airport. Engine failure? I try to fly high enough to always give me time to find a good landing option. In the mountains ? I try to stay within gliding distance of a good option ? a highway, clearing, playa?.you name it. Running out of fuel? How about running continuous fuel calculations on the EFIS (it does it automatically), and making sure that I am ALWAYS within range (including reserves) of an airport?

Now some things, you decide up front are too remote to worry about, and you just have to accept. For instance, I just don?t worry about structural failure in the RV-8, because the wing is stressed to 9 G?s, and I know I will gray out long before that. I stay below the maneuvering speed when it?s bumpy. And so on. For the risks that are remote, I accept them based on their remoteness. I do think in terms of the probability/severity matrix that has become popular in some circles. Some risks might be probable but have low severity (nuisances) , such as the failure of a redundant system. Others might be catastrophic, but be highly improbable, such as getting hit by lightning when there is no convective activity. This helps decide what risks are acceptable without a backup.

Do I run these evaluations every flight? No ? I don?t, because most of them pertain to EVERY flight that I make in the airplane ? and many of them were design decisions when it came to what sort of redundancy lies in the systems. When I look at the risk for a particular flight, I look at what is different from the ?normal? risks. We live on a very narrow runway with wicked, shifty turbulence when the crosswinds get too severe. While I might depart on a day where the winds are bad if I am going somewhere (since I have a good wide abort runway just 2.5 miles away), I?d give up on a local Acro flight under those conditions, because it might be too hard to get back home ? and it is a hassle to call someone to come pick you up from the abort runway.

Hope that gives a little insight into my own process. I will be interested in hearing how others assess their risks. There are numerous ways to do it - the only completely wrong way (in my own book) is to ignore the risks altogether.

Paul
 
3 Strikes You're OUT!!

I use a three strikes method.

As an example recently I have done a few night and IMC flights. Sure I do not launch will nilly at every chance, its only under rare opportunities that require it and a good engine in a good IFR platform, well I accept the elevated risk, but I do activate the lights as I approach each airfield just in case........ and mitigate by careful planning.

As for the example, leaving after dark 1, IMC on the route or weather near the minima 2, and if there is even Isolated TS forecast anywhere in the area, thats 3 strikes.....No Go.

If it were day and TS, well I would go, just stay visual on top or beneath but not in.

Would I fly the plane with out a working autopilot, yes but IFR, well maybe if weather is not a problem, but no AP, IFR and lots of IMC........3 strikes again -OUT. Of course if I had another IR pilot with me, to help with workload maybe......

Its a simple formula, weigh up the risks, mitigate or stay home.
 
RV10inOz said:
3 Strikes You're OUT!!
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Now that's funny... I've used a similar method for both flying and motorcycle riding for a while now. If I realize i've screwed up three things before I get to the launch point, I abort. That includes getting to the bike and realizing i've got my tinted visor and it's nighttime, or getting out there and finding i'm wearing my street shoes and not my riding boots, etc. It shows my mind isn't in it, and I probably shouldn't be doing it that day.

Flying, i've aborted less than a dozen flights for the same reasons. But i've come within one screwup a number of times. Those days when nothing seems to be going right are probably the days when you should putter around the hangar instead.

And yet, i'm not sure I could "quantify" any of the go/no-go decisions i've made into a numerical system that would be useful. For the most part, it comes down to a gut feeling, whether things "feel right" or not. If they do, I go. If something seems hinky, I don't.

On the flip side, someone told me once when I was learning to fly that at the end of a good day's flying, it's always good to sit down and ask yourself what you did wrong that day. Forget to dip the oil? Forget to add carb heat on landing? Forget to remove pitot cover before flight? Any close calls? That kind of stuff. You clearly made it back in one piece, but what could have been better for next time? I still do that.
 
The basics for me....

...were taught by an old pilot:

The three threats to flying are:

1. Nighttime.

2. Bad weather.

3. Low fuel.

You can handle any one by itself and expect a good outcome, but not two of the three together..e.g. Low fuel but in daytime, you can find a place to land, compared to low fuel and nightime. How' bout nightime and bad weather??

There are so many variables that oftentimes a decision has to be made AFTER we're airborne. Last summer, Jenny and I made a day trip to the coast, had a great time and as we lifted off heading home 6 hours later, the 496 showed a really huge, all red, squall line smack dab in the middle of our route. (The FBO doesn't have a computer with radar)...buuut, it was daytime
so we simply made a little detour and the storm moved out of our way.

Had it been nightime, I may not have even launched.

Best,
 
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Pierre

I think we have been at the same school!

Night and storms are for Turbines, in the FL's and a wx radar. Otherwise best on the verandah with a Bundy and Coke in hand.

Now how many of y'all understand that one ;)
 
Yep...

I had a Cessna 310 and now my turbine Air Tractor and I will fly those at night, but not my -10.....too much risk..a piston engine and nighttime.

Night forced landings seldom have an acceptable outcome!

Best,
 
Three strikes can be too many

Based upon my skill level and aircraft capability I can give you several cases of one factor making it a No Go:

1) 30 knot crosswinds
2) Fog
3) Thunderstorms nearby (concern about gust fronts)
4) Snowing
5) Rain
6) Low ceilings

Yet I have taken reasonable risks that others may not:

1) Flew from Florida to the Bahamas
3) Flew from Marathon (Florida Keys) to the Cayman Islands (over Cuba)
 
Now this is a great thread for us low time pilots to leverage your experience, keep 'em coming!
 
Trying to quantify the go/no decision

It is hard to try to put numbers or values on any decision along the way to departing or not. I have developed some that work for me such as;

minimum ceiling of 800 feet above approach minimums
freezing level 3000' above my MEA (if I am going to be IMC)
gust spreads greater than 15 knots
when I fly cross-country at night, I file an IFR flight plan but I do not fly IMC at night.
I don't take-off after I have been awake for 12 hours and I land before the end of the 12 hours. I figure that is about a long enough and as I get older that time line will go down.

If I start to get close to those minimums I start asking "Why am I going?" "What is driving me to take-off?"

I picked up a great tip from Paul Dye in another thread. I hope he doesn't mind me repeating it here. He mentioned that he and his wife buy a Southwest ticket and just hang on to it during the year. If the weather is bad they just use the ticket. Southwest's re-booking fees are pretty low, if not free. What a great way to manage risk and remove get-there-itis. I have put that one in my tool box.
 
sahrens said:
It is hard to try to put numbers or values on any decision along the way to departing or not. I have developed some that work for me such as;

minimum ceiling of 800 feet above approach minimums
freezing level 3000' above my MEA (if I am going to be IMC)
gust spreads greater than 15 knots
when I fly cross-country at night, I file an IFR flight plan but I do not fly IMC at night.
I don't take-off after I have been awake for 12 hours and I land before the end of the 12 hours. I figure that is about a long enough and as I get older that time line will go down.

If I start to get close to those minimums I start asking "Why am I going?" "What is driving me to take-off?"

I picked up a great tip from Paul Dye in another thread. I hope he doesn't mind me repeating it here. He mentioned that he and his wife buy a Southwest ticket and just hang on to it during the year. If the weather is bad they just use the ticket. Southwest's re-booking fees are pretty low, if not free. What a great way to manage risk and remove get-there-itis. I have put that one in my tool box.
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You can steal any tips of mine that you find useful! ;)

Your Go/NoGo criteria are very similar to mine Scott - and I always try to remind myslef that if the weather is bad, it will generally be better in a day or so. I don't have a "hard" number for ceilings above minimums at my destination, but if they are below VFR, I must be seeing (or be very highly confident that I will see) an improving trend, rather than a deteriorating trend. I never play chicken with the weather - trying to beat bad weather to a location is usally a bad bet.

Paul
 
My Rules

I stay away from flying over forests, big lakes, mountains and built up areas by planning my route. If I can't glide to a road or a flat field, I don't fly there. Many would consider this extreme.

I also don't fly single engine at night, in even mildly marginal weather or if it's gusting over 30 knots or I have over 20 knot cross winds.

I brief the passenger before every takeoff, have a plan for engine failure during the TO roll, at 100 feet, below 500 feet and my go/ no go turn back altitude based on wind, distance from the runway and runway length. I always climb at best rate below 1000 feet AGL.

In the pattern I limit bank angles to less than 35 degrees below 90 knots, never get approach speeds down below 65 knots and rarely dump full flap or use it for landing. I cross check GPS against airspeed on final for a tailwind or ASI failure before slowing below 75 knots. I have no problem going around if I've managed to mess things up or the crosswind is making the touchdown look unsafe.

On approach into a city airport in a built up area or with trees on the approach, I approach very high until I'm assured I can glide to the runway, then I'll sideslip and dump flaps as required to make it in. I'll request a different departure runway if possible to avoid climbout over trees or buildings.

Fuel is visually checked before every flight and I would always allow for a minimum of at least 60 minutes reserve. I never burn off a tank with less than 1/4 fuel remaining.

I always use a checklist.

I perform a lot of training for engine out situations and other emergencies hoping that this will aid in doing the right thing with less thinking and hesitation if the real emergency ever happens.

None of my missions are so important I ever need to break these personal rules.
 
My risk management policy...

My wife of 31 years is courageously battling Stage IV metastatic melanoma. She is a fighter, but can not do all she could in the past. I spend a lot of time taking the best care of her I can. Based on that, my thoughts before I do anything before and during flight are "How would she get along if I was not there?"

So my risk management thought train is pretty simple; "Don't do anything stupid, my wife needs me!!" If I have to question whether it is stupid or not (based on my competence level and definition of stupid, and I am very conservative), then I don't do it. I no longer make high speed low passes, though I will make a low speed run down a runway at 50' to check winds and wildlife. I fly as high as practical, even on short flights. If I do a roll, it is at 2,000' minimum. If the sky is too cloudy, I don't fly. If the ceiling is less than 4,000', I don't fly. If the ground winds are more than 15 kts, I don't fly.

I'm not saying that exceeding those parameters is "stupid" for anyone else but me. But they are the comfort limits for me. And I hope that if I follow them I will have a much higher chance of living to take care of my wife.

Flying is a wonderful privilege, and I want to enjoy it as long as I can. But it is also a dangerous endeavor, and by having "DON"T DO ANYTHING STUPID" burned in my frontal lobes, I hope to fly safely for many more years.

This post is in now way meant to pass judgement on what others may or may not do. But the OP asked for personal risk management criteria and policies, and that is mine....

Thanks,
 
Piece o cake

RV10inOz said:
Night and storms are for Turbines, in the FL's and a wx radar. Otherwise best on the verandah with a Bundy and Coke in hand.

Now how many of y'all understand that one ;)
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Black Rat...

Bennair, Dunnatt
Mark
 
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