C

Captain Avgas

Well Known Member
It has been claimed in the past that only about one-third of builders who buy an empennage kit from Vans will ever complete the plane. Put another way...two-thirds bomb out for one reason or another. :eek:

I now believe that those figures are not exaggerated....in fact they may be a bit glossy. I have been following the VansAirforce Classified section for the last 3 months and have recorded that incomplete RV projects are coming onto the market via this forum at the rate of virtually one a day. For example 29 projects have been offered for sale in the last 30 days.

It must also be considered that many more projects than this will be changing hands because VansAirforce is only one advertising medium. And of course many projects sell within Building Chapters by word of mouth without being advertised at all.

Until VansAirforce started its Classified section it was not possible to get a good grip on the number of builders bailing out of RV projects. Now it is clear to see that the number is quite massive. For one reason or another the vast majority of prospective builders lack the wherewithal or other requirements to complete a plane.

In fact it now appears that there may be more incomplete projects being sold by builders than new projects being sold by Vans. This would be due to the fact that incomplete projects are often sold several times.

Incidentally, there is currently a disproportionately large number of RV10 projects coming onto the market. This may indicate that builders are initially unaware of the extra cost of building this model...or they have simply underestimated the sheer magnitude of the task.

Also you would think that most of the projects changing hands are simply empennage kits. But that is not true. They are changing hands at all stages of construction. A popular time to sell seems to be around the finishing kit stage. I surmise this might be in part because it is at that time when the average builder fully realises his building budget is shot and he still has the most expensive items ahead of him (engine, interior, avionics, paint etc).
 
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Captain Avgas said:
In fact it now appears that there may be more incomplete projects being sold by builders than new projects being sold by Vans. This would be due to the fact that incomplete projects are often sold several times.
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(preceeded by big sigh)

Bob,
In making the above statement...Do you have any idea of how many kits Van's sells every year?
It would be my guess that you do not.
 
How many RV's completed?

I kept a close eye on Van's Hobbs Meter as my project neared completion. I watched when my first flight report went up on their web site and the number of flying RV-9(A) airplanes became 155. My builder number is 90622. That indicated that I was representing about 25% of all the folks that bought and finished an RV. Now I know that is not scientific at all. I wonder if Van's will tell us what the highest serial numbers are for each of the models. That way we could look at the total percentage by RV type as well as doing the overall completions.

Beyond that, how many are still building slowly in a "pay-as-you-go" mode?

Jerry K. Thorne
East Ridge, TN.
RV-9A - - N2PZ
 
Highest Model Completion Rate is 26%

As I recall Van's said a while ago the highest completion percentage was 26% for the RV-6. This is supposed to be the best in the industry.

Nucleus
 
One of the forums at AirVenture this year pretty much spelled out the secrets of homebuilding:

1. It's going to take twice as long as you think

2. It's going to cost twich as much as you think.

Most people who have never built an airplane don't realize going in what a commitment a project it will be :eek:

Van's still does things better than any other kit maker...tons of factory support, good complete kits, and lots of support in the community! It's no wonder why over 5,000 RV's have been finished...

It would be nice, however, to know the location of all the partially completed kits out there. I'm sure many people would sell them dirt cheap, and there are a lot of people out there who would love to continue building where the original builder left off :D
 
3 a day

In August of 2005 when I went to Scapoose for Transition Training I had the opportunity to visit Van's and take the tour. At that time they said they were averaging 3 kit sales a day, 7 days a week!! And, that was before the 10 really got ramped up. They expected that to go up.

At Oshkosh 2005 I attended one of the Van's seminars. Van reported that they had sold over 15,000 tail kits of the various flavors. He said the numbers had increased over the past few years because of the modern prepunched technology.

Just for giggles I'll start a Poll on the subject.
 
Smoke alarm

rvbuilder2002 said:
(preceeded by big sigh)

Bob,
In making the above statement...Do you have any idea of how many kits Van's sells every year?
It would be my guess that you do not.
Click to expand...


Scott, you are suggesting that the number of kits that Vans sells is vastly greater than the number of incomplete projects changing hands. The clear insinuation is that, relatively speaking, not many projects change hands.

I must admit that that suggestion sets off my smoke alarm.

Firstly, I note that you provide no data to support your suggestion.

Secondly, it concerns me that you may work for Vans and therefore have some undisclosed pecuniary interest in the matter.

Perhaps you could address both of these matters. I am sure if Vans has the data on new kit sales and keeps records of projects changing hands it would be of immense interest to VansAirforce readers to know the numbers.
 
I'm sitting here trying to understand what seem to be numerous "agendas" in this thread. I thought we all knew already that building an airplane was challenging and costs a lot (otherwise every knucklehead out there would have one). What is the point (or points) of this thread?
 
My guess, and that's what it is just a guess, is that there are a lot of tail kits out there that gather dust. Does that concern me? No. Why? because it means that I am, or at least will be when I finish, a member of a much more elite group of people. That group being the finishers. Long live the finishers.
 
As usual some take their anecdotal evidence from a narrow view and come to a full blown (wrong!) conclusion.

I also don't see the point of this thread. Reminds me of that "Our own worst enemy" thread. To conclude that "quite massive" number of builders are "bailing out" is an extreme stretch. I propose that before you once again go running down the theatre aisle yelling fire, you look at the First Issue 2007 edition of the RVator page 19. A vibrant resale market for Van's kits says nothing other than they are popular kits. Any other conclusion represents an opinion without facts. Opinions without facts are just noise.
 
RV9 tail group

I need to buy elevators (mine didn 't turn out) for a 9a so if someone
that changed their minds about building has a rv9 tail group they
want to sell cheap..


Danny..
 
Many years

Another consideration is that just because they aren't flying yet doesn't mean that they're not being built. I have given Transition training to guys who have taken 12 1/2 years to build a -4, 9 1/2 years for a -6 and 7 1/2 years. I still believe that many airplanes are finding completion in a slow steady, as-you-can-afford way.

Regards,
Pierre
 
pierre smith said:
Another consideration is that just because they aren't flying yet doesn't mean that they're not being built. I have given Transition training to guys who have taken 12 1/2 years to build a -4, 9 1/2 years for a -6 and 7 1/2 years. I still believe that many airplanes are finding completion in a slow steady, as-you-can-afford way.

Regards,
Pierre
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Hi Pierre, we're discussing different things here. You're talking about the percentage of RVs that will ultimately fly. I'm talking about the statistical probability of any one prospective builder actually starting AND finishing an RV project. And that, after all, is what every prospective builder is REALLY interested in.

It will be of little consolation to the initial purchaser of the kit if he sells the project at a loss and it subsequently flies after passing through several hands.

Everyone can count the number of projects being put up for sale on VansAirforce....one a day on average. That's pretty amazing when you consider that VansAirforce is only one advertising medium. And it doesn't take into account all the projects that are changing hands outside of the United States.

It worries me that some people get very defensive when this subject is raised. Some see it as an attack on the buildability of the RV...but it's not. In fact I would suspect that the RV probably has a very high completion rate compared to other designs.

But I don't think we need to be secretive of the fact that only a minority of builders who purchase a Vans empennage (or a partly completed project for that matter) will ever finish the plane. It's a sobering fact and indicative of the extreme magnitude of the task.

There is no secret agenda here. I started the thread purely as a constructive counterbalance to the often expressed view that "if you can tie your shoe-laces you can build an RV".
 
It's still just a HOBBY!

I'm not sure I see the point of this thread either. Is it positive? Is it negative? Is it a fruit or vegetable?

I started a RV9a and 'largely' completed the metal construction before selling my complete kit and buying a flying RV7 (so I evidently got past the tail kit).

It had nothing to do with the overwhelming 'magnitude' of the task- as much as my situation in life changed from the point of starting the kit to the present. Having children, getting married, getting divorced, starting jobs, losing jobs, health, family- all are important and worthwhile reasons for not completing a 'hobby'.

Besides- Who can see the future to predict what will happen in 3-5 years while building your airplane?

People do things for as many reasons as there are people. I'm not sure what the value of conjecture of 'tail starts' would be to motivate/educate the RV world.

One could extrapolate a few positive items out this-

1. Vans is the most successful Kit Airplane manufacturer in the world (yay!)

2. There is a demand for Vans kits new or used (yay!)

3. There is a strong users group supporting the RV community (double yay!)

One could also speculate that for the builders that never went beyond the tail kit- they too learned something very valuable from the experience at a very reasonable price (compared to the rest of the airplane cost).

I personally feel that I got a great education by building the airframe parts on the RV9, sold it at educational loss, and bought a flying RV7 (similar in many regards to the RV9) for a price less than it would have cost me to finish my airplane. The trade off was the repairmans certificate for time and money.

The bonus- I now 'understand' how to fly a taildragger! A skill I wouldn't have if I continued with my RV9a!

I've met so many friendly and interesting people in the RV community and have learned so much through the interaction with the RV folks that the experience has greatly enriched my life- but it's still a hobby.

Family, faith, job, RV
 
All this thread does for me is reinforce the notion that, yes, it is a daunting and expensive task, and I am determined to finish it so the wife and I can visit interesting places that I don't want to drive to ............... and oh yeah, we'll meet lots of great people that also fly RV's in the process. Yes, the people who complete their planes are probably extra-special, and I fully plan to be one of them. It's just taking longer than I want, but I fully expected that anyway. Go figure.
 
Captain Avgas said:
"if you can tie your shoe-laces you can build an RV".
Click to expand...
How about we make that saying a little more accurate:

If you have the wherewithal to lace your shoes 100 times a day every day for 3 years, you can build an RV. Oh...and you better have a good chunk of change to drop as well. :)
 
Don't belittle those that quit

I almost didn't make it, and I had enough money and time when I started the project. After 6 years I had to look at my kit and say "finish it or sell it". At that point, I had it 95% complete, had the engine, had the instruments, had almost everything needed to make a flying airplane, except motivation.

Thankfully, I was able to finish it.

The time and effort required to build a slow-build kit, for a first time builder, cannot be adequately described until you have built one. It is nothing short of a herculean task if you have nothing else to do for a living and nigh impossible for someone who has a job and a family.

A quick build will go faster, but when you need to think in terms of "years to completion" :), it really doesn't seem to matter if it's 3 years or 5 years. :)

For all of you who faced that task and made it to the finish line, I salute you heartily.

For those who could not, I do not belittle your effort. Just making the decision to start was huge.
 
N131RV said:
A quick build will go faster...
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Now THAT is one for which I'd like to see some data. I don't doubt that prior to the fully match-drilled kits that was true. But looking exclusively at today's kits...I'm not convinced. I see more QBs stalled in garages for years on end than SBs.
 
dan said:
I'm sitting here trying to understand what seem to be numerous "agendas" in this thread. I thought we all knew already that building an airplane was challenging and costs a lot (otherwise every knucklehead out there would have one). What is the point (or points) of this thread?
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Whoa there, Dan. Are you trying to say that building an airplane is difficult?! Next thing you're gonna tell me is that flying can be dangerous. Crazy talk.
 
It is not the time needed by the kit.

dan said:
Now THAT is one for which I'd like to see some data. I don't doubt that prior to the fully match-drilled kits that was true. But looking exclusively at today's kits...I'm not convinced. I see more QBs stalled in garages for years on end than SBs.
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It is the time given by the builder.

I started out standard and switched to QB for the Fuse. I was not able to give the time to the project to complete it in the time that I had hoped.
When I started my 9A and Vans said 1800 to 2000 hours to build it, I figured that it would take me a little over two years and I would be flying the plane. I know that there have been plenty of people that have completed their planes quicker then that, but I could not keep up the pace. Other things in life got in the way. One thing that slowed me down was owning a C172. Hunting, Holidays, Vacation all seamed to pull me away from my project. When half way through the wing kit, I decided that I could use more help finishing my project, so I order the QB fuse.
Well long story short, I got to fly my 9A a little more then 5 years after I started. This seamed slow to me, but I think the time may have been closer to average.

Kent
 
focus

the hardest part to building an airplane is simply staying foucused. alot of people abandon their family and freinds for building. it gets very annoying after a while (years) when your freinds ask you to go skiing and you give the ole "im working on the airplane routine". the best part of finishing im looking forward to is just that, being finished. there is no way in **** I'd ever build again without help. now if my wife decides this is cool, lets build a 10, then im in. :D but to go it alone again no way jose. it is highly overated IMHO. as far as difficult its not that bad but it is more than the, "if you can tie your shoes routine." oh wait my avionics just showed up gotta go.... ;)

added: i do beleive more quit than finish. by a large margin at that
 
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This is so easily solved. All Scott McDaniels has to do is tell us how many kits, of all types, have been sold since 1980 and we will have our answer. I can't see why that would be proprietary information.
 
Simple physics

dan said:
Now THAT is one for which I'd like to see some data. I don't doubt that prior to the fully match-drilled kits that was true. But looking exclusively at today's kits...I'm not convinced. I see more QBs stalled in garages for years on end than SBs.
Click to expand...

I had a "fully match drilled kit". Each and every rivet takes time to prepare for, match drilled or not. A QB probably would have cut 3 years off my build time. :)

In a quickbuild, approximately 900-1000 hours of the work has been done for you.

You may see more qb's stalled because:

a. Vans probably sells more QBS.
b. The saved time factor is the "convincer" needed for someone to get started, IE, they may have been less motivated (than they realized).

Just MHO
 
It also might have something to do with the economy going south, or the perception of coming economic woes.

When I started my project -- and mine is a pay-as-you-go project -- I anticipated needing a loan for an engine and some avionics. I figured I could use my home equity.

THAT is now up to a nearly 10% interest rate.

Also, I know quite a few builders who started an RV and then the RV-10 came along -- and families grow -- and they decided to sell and build an RV.

The only REAL way to draw this conclusion, however, is to do a scientific survey of why RVs are for sale.

Anything else is anecdotal guesswork and really has no analytical value.
 
It seems pretty obvious that there will be many purchasers of empennage kits who will not complete the aircraft for many reasons.
Building an airplane is a project that requires enormous financial resources, lots of time spent on solitary tasks in the garage, a balancing of work and other priorities (like families) - all for what is, by definition, an amateur effort for our own education and recreation.
What is surprising is that so many people, with all of the vagaries of life over the years it takes to build an aircraft, will actually complete and fly the thing.
If there was some sense that the low completion rate of Van's kits was a function of the quality of the kits, rather than of life and individual circumstance, then I could see some point to this thread, but on the contrary I think that the completion rate that we have is a tribute to the thoughtfulness of Van's designs, his builder support, and the enormous support and resources available to builders of Van's kits, including this site. I would not dream of demanding that Van's Aircraft open its books to me or anyone else to get to the bottom in some way of a completion rate issue - there is no issue that is Van's to address.
I am (still) building a 6A for which I purchased the empennage kit in the early 1990s. I purchased the finishing kit last year, and I will finish and fly this aircraft. Since purchasing the empennage kit, I have changed jobs twice, married, moved twice, had a child who is now old enough to help me on the airplane and accompany me to Oshkosh. If I had ever decided to put this kit up for sale, I would be another of the statistics that some are pointing to -but the statistic would reflect nothing but my personal choice and my personal cicumstances. Some choose to build, some choose to buy, some choose to sell, some choose never to start, and for each, it was the choice that made sense at the time.
Bill
Ottawa,
Canada,
RV-6A (still)
 
Didn't we see these?

Yukon said:
This is so easily solved. All Scott McDaniels has to do is tell us how many kits, of all types, have been sold since 1980 and we will have our answer. I can't see why that would be proprietary information.
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John, I agree that you need those numbers for any other numbers to mean anything at all - but didn't we get those numbers in the RVator in the issue that announced the 5,000th flight? I could swear we had a thread very much like that at the time, but I'm too tired right now to go looking for it.

I personally don't get bothered by a thread like this - gives people good chance to explore why some people finish, and others don't. I DO get a little bothered by folks that take one particular number (one kit going on the market on VAF per day) and use that to generalize a broad theory....it's like describing a forest by looking at one little spot through a microscope. Selective statistics do nothing more than start arguments, and unless you have all the data on ever kit (when it was bought, when it was sold to another builder, how many builders have owned each kit, and when each kit was completed...for instance), you really don't have enough information to make a definitive statement. It can be theorized that a kit that is sold is actually INCREASING it's chances of being finished (but that is just a theory until proven).

Personally,k I have always looked at tail kits as a "trial marriage".....abandoned tail kits are just like those golf clubs used one season and then gathering dust. These are expensive projects, and spending a couple thousand to find out of building is (or isn't) for you you is a pretty small amount...and if it isn't, then the whole project is probably too much anyway. Purely my opinion.

Paul
 
Just click on the link

Ironflight said:
John, I agree that you need those numbers for any other numbers to mean anything at all - but didn't we get those numbers in the RVator in the issue that announced the 5,000th flight? I could swear we had a thread very much like that at the time, but I'm too tired right now to go looking for it.
Click to expand...

Go back to post #16 in this thread and click on the link. ;)
 
Things change!

I actually sold my RV-9A kit after completing the tail, wings and had the fuselage kit on the floor because of a medical condition. The fellow backed out at the last minute because his wife got sick and I decided to go ahead and finish the plane and then sell it. Boy, am I glad I didn't sell it now as it looks like the medical condition was not as serious as I first thought.

It's like my Dad told me when I was learning to be a tool and die maker years ago. I was complaining how difficult learning the trade was and he told me to hang in there because there would be much less competetion for a job later. His exact words were "If it is was easy everyone would be doing it." That's a good description of building an RV. I will very proud when I can say I am one of the 25% or so that actually is flying my own RV.
 
rv9aviator said:
I actually sold my RV-9A kit after completing the tail, wings and had the fuselage kit on the floor because of a medical condition. The fellow backed out at the last minute because his wife got sick and I decided to go ahead and finish the plane and then sell it. Boy, am I glad I didn't sell it now as it looks like the medical condition was not as serious as I first thought.
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Jim,

This is the stuff we love to hear! Looking forward to parking next to you at OSH.

I am really having trouble getting anything positive out of this thread. It's like hearing most people die of heart disease--SO? We are individuals and I would guess that, even counting those who quit for whatever reason, almost all who started would say it was a positive experience. That is what is really important, at least IMHO. You can still get a wonderful taste in your mouth by biting off more than you can chew. If you are considering starting a kit, just know that you CAN be one of those 26%. Or 32%. Or what ever.

If you are looking for real statistics rather than speculation, 100% of those who live at this address finished their RV.

Bob Kelly
 
I wonder how many people have started reading a book and then not finished it.

Not sure what we're trying to prove here. That RV people who complete their airplanes are "special"? That airplanes are hard to build from (relative) scratch? That only people with lots of time and lots of money can do it?

I thought I saw some allusion to Van saying anyone can build the plane, and the suggestion seemed to be that Van's was BSing about what it takes to build a plane.

And yet, right there on the Web site it says:

Building an RV does not require any special skill, but it does demand attention, commitment and perseverance. It is a large project that will put you through every imaginable emotion. It is unlikely that you will do everything you are doing today and build an airplane, too.

Well let's see. I flunked shop in high school and I write words for a living, so I sure can't argue with the notion that it doesn't take any special skills to build an airplane.

So a bunch of people are or may be finding that they can't give the attention, commitment, perseverance, or money, nor sacrifice what needs to be sacrificed to build a plane.

What's the "news" here?
 
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