Predicting the actual deorbit/breakup time of a dead spacecraft in a decaying orbit to within 90 minutes is almost impossible....yet in that 90 minutes, it can travel all the way around the planet....which means that trying to warn a particular spot on the earth is fairly futile. Now, if you have some control and thrust available, you can put it where you want it.....
Sometimes, you have to rely on the "big sky" theory, whether you like it or not!
Paul
