When you confront an ?interesting? weather situation and decide that you are going to ?Go for it? (rather than retreat), two things can happen. One is that you find out that you make it through, in which case you decide that you made a good choice. The other is that you DON?T make it through (hopefully, you get turned back, hopefully you get to live to learn and try again another day?worst case, you become a statistic, and WE all learn from you to live another day!) and ? assuming that you are alive to consider the issue ? you chalk it up to a bad decision and hopefully learn to choose more wisely in the future. That pretty much sums up weather decisions ? right? Get through ? good choice; don?t make it ? bad choice.
Well, that?s how a lot of pilots seem to behave, and obviously I wouldn?t be writing about it if I didn?t think that there was more to it. The truth of the matter is that the Outcome of a weather decision does not necessarily reflect on the Correctness of that decision. Sometime you use your knowledge and skill to influence the outcome ? and sometimes, you just get lucky.
All too often, I listen to pilots weaving tails of weather and how they just got in before a squall line crossed the field, or made it through a gap just before a line closed up and formed a solid wall of thunderstorms. These things happen, and in fact have happened to me. But past success has nothing to do with future outcomes ? we need to treat every situation as new, and on its own. It?s one thing to decide to shoot a gap because you have been watching the rate at which a line closes up and determined that you have sufficient time (and margin) to make it through in a particular situation. It is another thing to decide that ?since I made it through the last time, I can make it through again!? This sort of logic just doesn?t follow. Remember that the weather has no idea that you are there, and the decisions that you make does not influence it in the least. One of my favorite sayings is ?the weather is what the weather is ? not what we want it to be?. Dispassionate analysis of each particular weather situation is what will make you a better weather pilot ? not a record of success ? unless you know that your success is based on experience and judgment, and not luck.
?So?experience and judgment ? how the heck do I learn that?? You ask. Well, by watching the weather, of course! ?But, if I don?t know enough to be in the weather, how am I supposed to learn enough to be in the weather?!? Ahh?.now there is a question we can answer! I have a group of crackerjack weather guys where I work, and they judge the launch and landing weather for a very fragile aerospace vehicle ? the Space Shuttle. The weather parameters for the bird are very strict, and forecasts have to be made an hour and a half into the future when looking at landing conditions. But they only get to do this a few times a year ? right? Wrong! In fact, they do a forecast for Florida and California almost every day ? and then they watch how well the actual conditions match the forecast conditions. They learn what their results are without risking a bit of skin ? they ?play the game? without having to take the chance. They keep careful records of what happens ? not just if they were right or wrong, but by how much ? and most importantly, why they were right or wrong. And they put that learning to work the next time around. The weather is frequently bad ? but their ability to forecast it is as good as it gets ? because they practice all the time. Luck is not a factor if ?the game? has a science behind it ? it?s not a gamble, but an educated decision.
Any reason why we can?t do the same thing? None that I can think of! As long as you have reliable observations of actual conditions, and access to a variety of weather data, you can become your own forecaster ? with the help of TAF?s and a variety of other professional forecasts of course. Everyone that claims to be a pilot can be an expert on their local weather ? and that weather doesn?t have to be good for you to be good at calling it. Remember that weather is just weather to the atmosphere ? it doesn?t know that you want to go flying, and doesn?t care. So watch it, keep track of it, make your calls, and see what you get. You?ll be surprised at how quickly you get good at calling it correctly. You don?t have to burn any Avgas, it won?t cost you a penny in maintenance ? heck, you might only have a completed tail kit and be surrounded by half-deburred wing ribs. You can still become an expert at the weather ? all it takes is a little practice.
And that ?Luck? thing? Leave it for Vegas! ?I got lucky? are words that begin an ?I Learned About Flying From That? article?.
Paul
Well, that?s how a lot of pilots seem to behave, and obviously I wouldn?t be writing about it if I didn?t think that there was more to it. The truth of the matter is that the Outcome of a weather decision does not necessarily reflect on the Correctness of that decision. Sometime you use your knowledge and skill to influence the outcome ? and sometimes, you just get lucky.
All too often, I listen to pilots weaving tails of weather and how they just got in before a squall line crossed the field, or made it through a gap just before a line closed up and formed a solid wall of thunderstorms. These things happen, and in fact have happened to me. But past success has nothing to do with future outcomes ? we need to treat every situation as new, and on its own. It?s one thing to decide to shoot a gap because you have been watching the rate at which a line closes up and determined that you have sufficient time (and margin) to make it through in a particular situation. It is another thing to decide that ?since I made it through the last time, I can make it through again!? This sort of logic just doesn?t follow. Remember that the weather has no idea that you are there, and the decisions that you make does not influence it in the least. One of my favorite sayings is ?the weather is what the weather is ? not what we want it to be?. Dispassionate analysis of each particular weather situation is what will make you a better weather pilot ? not a record of success ? unless you know that your success is based on experience and judgment, and not luck.
?So?experience and judgment ? how the heck do I learn that?? You ask. Well, by watching the weather, of course! ?But, if I don?t know enough to be in the weather, how am I supposed to learn enough to be in the weather?!? Ahh?.now there is a question we can answer! I have a group of crackerjack weather guys where I work, and they judge the launch and landing weather for a very fragile aerospace vehicle ? the Space Shuttle. The weather parameters for the bird are very strict, and forecasts have to be made an hour and a half into the future when looking at landing conditions. But they only get to do this a few times a year ? right? Wrong! In fact, they do a forecast for Florida and California almost every day ? and then they watch how well the actual conditions match the forecast conditions. They learn what their results are without risking a bit of skin ? they ?play the game? without having to take the chance. They keep careful records of what happens ? not just if they were right or wrong, but by how much ? and most importantly, why they were right or wrong. And they put that learning to work the next time around. The weather is frequently bad ? but their ability to forecast it is as good as it gets ? because they practice all the time. Luck is not a factor if ?the game? has a science behind it ? it?s not a gamble, but an educated decision.
Any reason why we can?t do the same thing? None that I can think of! As long as you have reliable observations of actual conditions, and access to a variety of weather data, you can become your own forecaster ? with the help of TAF?s and a variety of other professional forecasts of course. Everyone that claims to be a pilot can be an expert on their local weather ? and that weather doesn?t have to be good for you to be good at calling it. Remember that weather is just weather to the atmosphere ? it doesn?t know that you want to go flying, and doesn?t care. So watch it, keep track of it, make your calls, and see what you get. You?ll be surprised at how quickly you get good at calling it correctly. You don?t have to burn any Avgas, it won?t cost you a penny in maintenance ? heck, you might only have a completed tail kit and be surrounded by half-deburred wing ribs. You can still become an expert at the weather ? all it takes is a little practice.
And that ?Luck? thing? Leave it for Vegas! ?I got lucky? are words that begin an ?I Learned About Flying From That? article?.
Paul
