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andrew phillips

andrew phillips

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I understand that these are tough economic times that we are going through. If your plane is a luxury that needs to be sold to help you cope I sincerely commiserate with you. Luckily for me I don't need to sell my plane so I am not affected but it definitely saddens me when I see planes that are practically new being unloaded for WAY less than the cost of their parts.

I always hoped that my plane would be worth at least what I paid for the materials. When planes are sold at these values they drag down the whole market. This is much like we are seeing on the stock market today. There are many examples of companies with good fundamentals who are having their values pounded by people motivated by fear instead of sound judgment.

If you can afford it, I think you should hold out for a fair price. How many would be happy to buy any other product out there at the cost of it's materials. While you may be happy getting a quick sale on your own plane you are hurting your friends who might really need to get those extra and well deserved dollars from their sale.

This post is really just a rant. I know that market conditions dictate what really happens but I am hoping that people think twice before acting.

My retirement advisor is really optimistic. He has to be since his job depends on it! I sure hope he is right!
 
Econony

I was amazed at the last 7 that sold too. Very sad to see such a nice plane go so cheap, but great news for the new owner.
As a financial advisor.....let me just say its BRUTAL, i have literally hundreds of great clients that are laid off, terminated, downsized out etc. Real people really suffering. If life was good, you didnt plan properly and have next months paycheque already spent...one bump in the road and there is a huge train wreck. I agree that all will be fine in the next year or two but...there are so many people that feel backed into a corner that i really cant blame them for panicking. Most people under 60 have never seen all their assets bleed this fast. Very painful, but just like bad weather...it always passes. I hope most with their dreams in the garage/basement and hangars can weather this perfect storm. I believe some of the most recent sales where more for other opportunities then really dire finances but either way sad to see them go.

Hopefully this will be like y2k. So many people bought generators and bottled water feeling like the world was going to end. Look back now and how funny was that. But...didnt stop people at the time from feeling like planes would fall out of the sky, nuclear reactors would fail, and the power grid would collapse. Just dumb...but people keep doing silly things, over and over.
 
Food............ nope
Clothing........ nope
Shelter......... nope

A RV is not one of those. When times are tough like now things get sold to cover one or more of the above list. Since people are are getting burned to the tune of 100, 200, 300, 400K or more on home values I don't know how you expect the price of 100LL eating machine to hold up.

You investment guys have Lear jets and a 100'+ Yachts, all paid for, right? I mean if you're giving out advice and charging for it I hope it's from experience and not something studied out of a book, course, or certificate program.:rolleyes:
 
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Well

For me I always considered things like airplanes as toys.So I would never finance one and I'd never buy one until everything was paid off.

I'm currently planning on being laid off in June or October.

My current plan is if that happens I will try to sell for a decent price..if not I'll take the wings off (painful proposition) and bring it home and keep it in the shop with the engine full of cheap oil till the markets recover.

Frank
 
Willing buyer/willing seller.

Andrew, while I understand the effect of low selling on the market, I suspect that the folks who are selling their planes are doing so because of a genuine need for the money------(and they have already made a pretty hard decision just to part with "their pride-and-joy")----and thus are not in a position to hold out for a "fair" price.

What is a "fair" price anyway????
 
Fairly Purchased, Fairly Sold

Nobody but the seller knows the circumstances and we all need to respect that.
 
My 2 cents worth

None of us are children. None of us are little old ladies being taken advantage of. We all knew fully well the risks of building or buying an airplane. And we all accept the consequences with various emotions. I sold my 9A project for about 60% of my receipt value. I donated my labor to it's new owner. I learned a lot in the process, and probably wouldn't have my current job today if it hadn't been for the contacts I made and the skills I learned while building this project. I definitely don't see my time as wasted, and try not to look at money wasted.

I have adopted an "oh well" attitude, and am moving on. I will build again.
 
I bought my first home in 2000. Because it was a repo, I was able to bargain with the bank and knock 25% off the asking price. I wouldn't have been able to buy a home much less afford one if the economy wasn't down at that time.
That's how the market works. (I'm not trying to lecture you)
......
I certainly wouldn't as I'd love to benefit from someone elses desire to unload his/her project on the cheap now that I have the money.

Which reminds me, I gotta' put an ad in the classified section for an RV-9 tail with electric trim in the So Cal area I gotta' unload cheap. :D
 
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Just my opinion, but bad economy or not, the days of selling an experimental for a big (or maybe even a small) profit are probably going away for good, except for the rare cases. There has been such a profusion in the number of RVs built over the last few years (and way more are in the hopper) that the supply is increasing exponentially. I doubt that the demand (or, put differently, the "supply of buyers") for "home-built," or "amateur-built" experimentals is going up as fast as the rate of completions. Might be worth considering if either we're thinking of our planes as financial investments or even "safe-havens," or if we are borrowing money to build and/or buy them. Again, just my .02.
 
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If you want to talk RV prices/market, be my guest. If you insist on bringing government policy/personalities/philosophies into it, I will shut this thread down.

Fair warning,

Joe
 
Airplane Prices, again, fairly bought, fairly sold.

Experimental, certified, no matter, prices are going down. There are great deals to be had, good deals to be had, and probably still some bad deals as always.
Again, people are assuming why this person has sold their airplane. That is just speculation and none of my business.

RV's have always been good deals. Experimental by definition is for education, and like others have commented, what is the value of that? Somebody should have paid me to build my airplane for the enjoyment I recieved, however, I dont expect to get that out of it should I try to sell some day. It's priceless. I dont even expect to get what I put into it back. All of that is fine with me. So, if I choose to sell it at any price and I find a willing buyer, fairly bought, fairly sold.

However you want to price your airplane is your business too. I know many who sold theirs for the parts cost just to finance another build. Someone got a great deal, fairly bought, fairly sold. Two happy people.

I hope they dont shut the thread down for some of the "abuses". I think most of the discussion will help new people gain a better economic perspective of building an experimental airplane and what they may or may not have when they are done.
 
Who knows what a "fair price" is. Houses, cars, land and any other thing you can think of are sold for way too much and way too little every day regardless of what the economy is doing. The problem with experimental aircraft is that they have become such a commodity which is just a fancy way of saying they are always available. With 6,000 RV's completed there have to be a ton of them for sale every day and that's just the RV's. Anyone would be better off buying and selling used cars if it's about investment or making money.
 
opportunity?

There might be some opportunity in all this. I have an RV-4 that I've been flying/upgrading for a year and a half now...(planned on keeping it forever...) BUT... I'm entertaining the idea of trading over to an RV-6/7/9 (tail wheel) aircraft. If someone was in a situation that required them to divest themselves of their aircraft to improve their cash position, let me throw this out. Trade my 4, plus cash, for your 6/7/9. You still have an aircraft to fly, plus some money to help you work through this "unpleasantness" in the economy... And I don't need to rent a plane to teach my daughters to fly... ;-)
If this interests anyone, shoot me a private message and we can chat... I'm just running it up the flagpole to see if anyone salutes... ;-)

Dennis
 
Big Guys Too

I know this won't create a lot of sympathy among us but the big guys are selling and hurting too. My buddy flies a Gulfstream. It was purchased for $27M and much has been put into it including new engines, panel, paint, interior etc.etc. Last year they could have gotten $26M for it. Just sold for $15M....
A couple friends have recently sold their planes for way too cheap but they had to. Doesn't look like any improvement soon. Oh well..... :(
 
The irony is that we have threads about used RV values going down and threads about the prices for new engines going up. I guess that means we get hammered from both sides.

Yup, things are tough and getting tougher. My boss got laid off on Monday, and my wife escaped a RIF at her company yesterday. Sigh. :(
 
silver lining

Maybe I can ad a silver lining. I know things are tough all over, I know there are a lot of people hurting out there. Perhaps if someone sells an airplane, the buyer would be willing to give the seller first crack at buying the airplane back along with maybe the right to fly it once in a while just to keep current. I'm selling my yankee to pay for my helicopter CFI. 30 grand was spent... now I'm paid to fly. 20 an hour does not go far.. but it beats paying 300 an hour to rent the bird.... building time is part of paying our dues. Now I have to sell my yankee to pay for it. :(
Hopefully those people selling their airplanes will have a chance to get them back again.
Best
Brian Wallis
 
Gentlemen...
The glass is not half empty. We need more water. If you can't see a buying opportunity when you're in the market for a homebuilt airplane, you're just not looking. The sky is not falling. I can certainly feel for those needing to sell, I was there myself a few years ago following a corporate bankruptsy and sold my RV-6. Later, Lord willing, I was able to build again. If I have to sell again - which very well may happen - I will, and then, again Lord willing, I will build again. I'm not concerned with what price it brings. If you are in this to make money, you are not a good investor. Building, especially multiple times is an act of passion and isn't measured in dollars. Everything we buy - houses, cars, airplanes - is worth less now than it was a year ago, and will probably continue to decline for a while, but so what? We can't do anything about it. We are in this because we love it, right?? Let's help each other out. Help your buddy sell his bird, for what ever is fair at the time, and then help him get back into it as soon as he recovers. And he will recover eventually. He needs to stay connected with his passion in the mean time, even if it's secondary for a while. Our future depends on us staying involved. We may all be there at some time in our lives.

Scott
 
Hopefully the buyer of that Canadian RV7 will go to neat places and write trip reports with pictures. He or she might even have issues with ATC. Or maybe it is just me that seems to have those issues.
 
Dare I ask how much it went for? I missed the asking price. I'm building right now, but if I find a Glasair I RG as cheap as they should be in the next few months... I might just sell my other projects and go glass.
 
Note the media/government reporting lag before you mimic Chicken Little. They often run as much as 6 months behind the reality.

I'll share some current reality. One of the best economic indicators of right-now consumer demand is the used car/truck wholesale market.....but you'll never see it in the news. No spoon-fed press conference for reporters, and anyway, those low-life car dealers know nothing about economics, right?

Wholesale buyers bid based on very recent retail sales activity, like last week and yesterday. The dollars are large, and supply and demand is everything.

Retail sales in the low B thru high D credit markets (classic "buy here-pay here") are very strong; many dealers report (to each other, not the media) a record Feburary, the best in many years. The $2000-$8000 cars required for that market are up $1500-$2000.

But even better, the market for popular models intended for conventional sales are also up, in some cases a lot. Here's a specific example. Year in and year out, the best selling vehicle type is the classic full size half-ton pickup truck. Last year this time (well before recession was "official" in the news) I was paying as little as $10,000-$11,000 for 2005 extended cabs with miles in the 20's; demand was weak. During one panic period later in the spring (the fuel price peak) prices got to really stupid levels, like $7500.

That same 2005 truck is now bringing $13,000-$15,000 because Joe Citizen is buying. Nice SUV's are up. Late model diesel duals are bringing blood. It's not just trucks either. I watched Chrysler Credit clean out 6000 stored cars from one auction location alone in less than a month.

My own specialty (light commercial trucks) isn't quite back yet, but traffic is picking up. Lawn care, HVAC, and remodel/repair services are showing activity. Trucks for segments like construction are still slow, but there are houses coming out of the ground within 5 miles of my own. I've gone out and bought everything I can while I can still get bargains; that's my bet.

Now is a very good time to buy a flying RV. In times like these the negative see a bleak picture and the positive see a bargain. If someone is willing to sell cheap, it's not cruel to be the buyer. He has his belief, you have yours, and you're both free to act. Bargains create economic activity, which is what we need; Capitalism 101. There are winners and losers, but a rising tide lifts all boats.

Personally, I'll hold; my kit is not for sale. I think you're seeing the bottom of the RV market right now. My belief is based on the indicators I see, not the indicators I read in the paper.

Ya'll start thinking positive. Talk positive. Quit feeding on the negative, and quit spreading it. All it does is drag out a recovery that is already underway.
 
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RickWoodall said:
Hopefully this will be like y2k. So many people bought generators and bottled water feeling like the world was going to end. Look back now and how funny was that. But...didnt stop people at the time from feeling like planes would fall out of the sky, nuclear reactors would fail, and the power grid would collapse. Just dumb...but people keep doing silly things, over and over.
Click to expand...

I see a new person every week telling the public how happy he is he bought his generator, has stored water and (at least)2 weeks worth of food stored in his house every time a winter storm comes through, or a hurricane in the south, or tornados in the midwest, or floods all around. Often power is out for weeks if you aren't on the main road, "normal" water supplies are contaminated or out of power, and transportation is very hazardous. with JIT grocery stores, i've seen my local supermarkets start to look half empty after 3 day ice storms. Local people make it to the store, buy up the food but the semi trucks are stuck or the main freeways shut down.

It never hurts (much) to be prepared. It costs money, but you get it back and then some when your supplies are needed. I think this is the belief behind backup alternators. How often does the main alternator go out and you NEED an instant backup to take over(I'm thinking VFR here) ? Most batteries will last at least 30 minutes, easy with minimal draw. I had an alternator failure in a cessna 152 at night in the middle of eastern oregon. It was really nerve wracking, but i shut all unnecessary electronics down and flew the plane, via a slightly different route- it was more connect the dots to the next airport, evaluate the situation and go for the next airport. I made it home with no other problems. After reading the failed mags thread an alternator failure (even at night) isn't really that big a deal, but i see backup alternators put on new VFR planes every month.
 
Dan, one of my best friends manages a flight department for a gentleman that owns several auto dealerships (new and used.) They are flying their folks all over the midwest to car auctions. Their used-car businesses are booming.

Guns and used cars are good businesses to be in now.
 
Historically True Also, but....

rocketbob said:
Dan, one of my best friends manages a flight department for a gentleman that owns several auto dealerships (new and used.) They are flying their folks all over the midwest to car auctions. Their used-car businesses are booming.

Guns and used cars are good businesses to be in now.
Click to expand...

People are not buying new cars, or new homes(not for lack of trying), or new airplanes...,. all of which employ LOT's of people. Unlike a car, people dont "need" an airplane, so the used RV market will suffer and wont see the bump that the used car market has seen. I am trying to buy two teenagers cars right now and was hoping to see some price concessions, but prices are holding if not going up. Dan, you are right.
I appreciate the optimism of Dan's post too. However, the reality is 10% unemployment in my State and rising, a level not seen since '82, and rising more rapidly than the national average. Those are people that won't be supporting the economy. All the optimism and used car sales in the world wont help them get a job and get their money flowing back into the system.
The people that have good jobs are holding onto their cash, or buying that used car or truck, instead of new. Yes, the used car market is an indicator of the economy, but not necessarily a positive one.
I am a very optimistic person. I feel this is a necessary correction and like Dan believe things will be back better than ever sooner than we think. Our airplane "values" will be back too at some point, unless GA gets TSA'd out of existence. (stopping now.)
 
DanH said:
One of the best economic indicators of right-now consumer demand is the used car/truck wholesale market....
Click to expand...
Kind of like the foreclosure and short-sale market in real estate -- booming!
Bargains create economic activity, which is what we need; Capitalism 101.
Click to expand...
Of course, not nearly a substitute for a robust car/truck manufacturing industry, or new housing construction, in terms of job creation and overall economic activity.
... a recovery that is already underway.
Click to expand...
Are you saying US GDP is now increasing again, starting February 2009? I'd be surprised if that is true. Still, if the worst we see is an overall 10% drop from the peak, that is still a lot of economic activity out there.

--Paul
 
This thread started out about RV resale values but has veered off into cars and guns......

It's most likely just a few posts away (seen this movie before...;)) from having some political stuff that will need to be deleted so I'm gonna close the thread. Thanks for the good posts that dealt with the original topic!
 
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