Webb

Webb

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The subject of safety came up on my last post about flying in the vicinity of some truly nasty weather and it would be a good post for discussion.

Well here it is.

The weather pictured here is fresh. The center of the country has a very large nasty cell moving east at 45 mph based on the winds at 18,000 feet. Ironically, it resembles the ?blob? that I encountered Sunday morning. There are other cells scattered about but not as severe as this large one. The direction of each cell?s movement is shown by the black arrow and is based on what the radar mosaic shows.

This cast of characters is assembled in Oshkosh, however this time the weather stayed dry. It?s time to leave and weather is on its way.

Each pilot is flying an RV and is a current and proficient IFR pilot. For sake of argument, each RV flies at 200mph in cruise. Each is equipped with an IFR approved GPS, XM weather, oxygen, and has 5 hours of fuel on board since they will be flying at a block altitude of 10,000 to 15,000 feet.

Plan each route and why:

Paul is going to St. Paul - light blue line
Larry is going to Lincoln ? blue line
Doug is going to Highland Village ? orange line
Pete is going to Friendswood ? light green line
Webb is going to New Orleans ? red line
Pierre is going to Louisville ? yellow line
Larry is thinking about going to Charleston because he?s never been there ? pink line

wx600x405.jpg
 
This is a no brainer

I would tell my wife it looks like we're spending another day in OSH. Oh Darn!
 
I'd launch...

...since it's clear at Osh and I'm faster than the weather to the Southwest. By the time I get refueled, the wx in Georgia may or may not be there...the 496 and my eyes will tell. Might take an hour or two on the ground someplace.

Larry can come along too, since the South Carolina weather might be gone too or stop some place in Tn. and wait a bit for Charleston to improve.

Regards,
 
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zilik said:
I would tell my wife it looks like we're spending another day in OSH. Oh Darn!
Click to expand...

This works for me!

You can see my route (blue line) is easy. I'd just stay north of the red stuff and come in from behind (no jokes inserted here :p) the storm. If the storm is over my destination (as it was last night :eek: ) I'd pick an airport with a crew car and land, refuel, and go have a burger. Always better to divert and live to fly another day.

In route I can look at the weather and may have been able to split the two main storm cells near Kansas City, but Lincoln is still "under fire" leaving me with an overnight stay somewhere. Better to fly dry than in the rain so going north would have been the best choice. IMHO.

IMHO one big mistake made here is waiting until the afternoon to launch. Most sever SIGMETS are in the PM after the sun has heated up the atmosphere. By launching early in the AM you can avoid alot of weather issues.

I do really need to get to the SE!
 
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I'm game

Since I've been dodging these things on a regular basis these past several weeks, I'm game.

Paul launches west and sneaks in on the backside as the greens works it's way ENE.

Larry launches west and again sneaks in on the backside. Larry, your flight and Paul's may be the only two where I sit for an hour at Oshkosh to let the green stuff for Paul (usually nothing more than a good airplane wash) and your yellow cell to move a little more east, considering the speed of your RV.

Now it get interesting. That low in the midwest doesn't look like it is dragging weather up from the gulf with it's counter clockwise rotation and the lines are far apart. Hum....

If I'm Doug, I'm probably heading SSE towards the high and come around the south side of the cell. If I go west, I'm going to be dealing with two lows, I'll take the high.

Pete, Webb, Pierre and Larry, why don't you four launch as a four ship to, at least, middle TN where Pete and Webb you would be cleared from the flight for a run home. Pierre, of your four ship, you look like you have the best chance for a direct flight home with Larry on your wing looking for an opportunity to turn ENE and go into Charleston. Larry, looks to me you are the one most likely to have to put down for a soda pop before heading on in for short flight after the weather clears.

If you are not willing to fly in this kind of weather in the midwest this time of year, you might as well sell your bird. I consider myself to be a conservative flyer but I launch in all 7 scenarios.
 
BlackRV7 said:
Larry, looks to me you are the one most likely to have to put down for a soda pop before heading on in for short flight after the weather clears.

If you are not willing to fly in this kind of weather in the Midwest this time of year, you might as well sell your bird. I consider myself to be a conservative flier but I launch in all 7 scenarios.
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The kind of "soda pop" I would enjoy would prevent further flight for 8 hours after the last beverage. ;)


EXCELLENT thread Web!
 
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All of those trips are very doable with XM weather, except Dallas and Houston, those would take some major deviations.... And you will be racing the storm to get around the front end. I would probably have a beer and call it a day on those trips.

All the rest could be done with reasonable deviations in a 200 mph airplane.

I typically fly much lower than 10500 when working around Thunderstorms.

Tailwinds,
Rozy
 
How 'bout a pilot report near the center of the weather action.

The system on the first radar picture moved out of Missouri by noon yesterday and we had broken clouds with periods of sunshine most of the afternoon. A noon departure from OSH headed south might have worked out all right along the Mississippi River VFR.

The system on todays map is a second wave, almost identical to what passed here 24 hours ago. At present most of the state is IFR with TRW's imbedded and lots of rain. It too is moving east and should be out of here by noon.

I did a flight plan with Dan's Weathermeister service and it shows IFR along a small part of the route in IOWA, the rest is VFR this afternoon. (OSH-02MO)

As stated before, I do not do IFR in these airplanes but do believe I could have made it home yesterday afternoon VFR. In any event, there are plenty of landing places along the route if the forecast does not hold up.
 
Well, first, I want to know why Pete's flying to my place in Friendswood, and I am going to his in Minnesota?! Oh, I guess I'm goign to visit my folks...;)

Seriously, my first thought was "I need to see some METAR's and TAF's before I'd make any call at all. Flying strictly based on a radar picture doesn't quite fit my risk profile. I'd also want to look at trends - a snapshot doesn't really give me any reliable information on what is going to happen.

My point is - weather is not static, and while the RV's are fast, they are not fast enough to cover a thousand miles in an hour and a half, so you are going to have to perform in changing weather, not just what you see. I prepare fora long cross-country quite a bit in advance - getting in to the swing and rhythm of the weather before I go, so I can reasonably predict what is going to happen before I get there.

Now, knowing what I do know about the time of year and general climatics, I'd personally have been very leery about heading out to the southeast - that whole area is full of moisture and just waiting for the heat of the the day plus the trigger that is coming from the west to make a mess. No - I wouldn't want to get stuck in the middle of all that convective activity this time of year.

If I really felt like I needed to get out of Oshkosh, the route to northern Iowa/Southern Minnesota looked the best to me - but then where do you go? South is blocked pretty much out to the Rockies - but it will clear in a day. So in the end, if I'd been Pete, I'd have trekked to St. Paul after all, visited there for a day, and then headed south a day late.

Good thread, and a good safety exercise.

Paul
 
Web,

Nice exercise but really much more info is needed such as everything we would ordinarily get during a weather brief ie:

Tops (if available, IR sat, Metars and TAFs along the route and at the destinations and time of day.

Based on it being this time of year and with the other info in hand assuming departing OSH around 0800 I would

Climb to around 10,000 feet and fly direct to my destination, climbing as necessary and deviating when needed to remain VMC.

My suspicion is you can top most of the green areas at 9-13,000 feet and the system is scattered enough that most destinations will be scattered to clear by the time you arrive.

IFR rated or not I would not file IFR so as to be able to deviate at will.

If filing IFR this time of year I would not venture into IMC with embedded TSTMS floating around even if the XM display suggested you would be OK.

I would file a VFR flight plan so I could pick up a pop up IFR at my destination for an approach if needed and doable.

Fuel stops when and where needed to have adequate IFR reserve.

I think the main points are good preflight planning, remain VMC, if on top of a deck make sure the metars below give a high enough ceiling so when you pop out after engine failure youn have a good chance of picking the site of the crash. Make sure you have a VMC out if weather worsens. Do not use XM to penetrate a line of cells or towering cums.

I think each route you mention is doable.
 
P.S.

When I look out the window this morning, very low ceiling, steady rain, and occasion lightning - it is a good time to kick back and watch it, not be in it. The tops in the area at present at at FL370.
 
"I think the main points are good preflight planning, remain VMC, if on top of a deck make sure the metars below give a high enough ceiling so when you pop out after engine failure youn have a good chance of picking the site of the crash. Make sure you have a VMC out if weather worsens. Do not use XM to penetrate a line of cells or towering cums."

If you are VFR rated..you still go with this point?? Depending on cloud cover at destination, may get stuck on top.
 
miyu1975 said:
"I think the main points are good preflight planning, remain VMC, if on top of a deck make sure the metars below give a high enough ceiling so when you pop out after engine failure youn have a good chance of picking the site of the crash. Make sure you have a VMC out if weather worsens. Do not use XM to penetrate a line of cells or towering cums."

If you are VFR rated..you still go with this point?? Depending on cloud cover at destination, may get stuck on top.
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It is a no no in my book for a VFR pilot being on top when his destination is going to be overcast, so no.

Webb said everyone was current IFR:
Webb said:
Each pilot is flying an RV and is a current and proficient IFR pilot. For sake of argument, each RV flies at 200mph in cruise. Each is equipped with an IFR approved GPS, XM weather, oxygen, and has 5 hours of fuel on board since they will be flying at a block altitude of 10,000 to 15,000 feet.
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So my thoughts on Pierre and the rest of the flight launching was based solely on the information presented, that being Webb pic shot. While I would never rely solely on a NEXRAD shot, that was all we had to make Webb's call. As his 5 hour shot showed, I was a little too leary of the lows to the west. Pete and Doug may have been better off skirting west then coming down the backside of the cell. Again, when I looked at the original pic, I did not see the counterclockwise rotating low in the midwest, nor the clockwise rotating high in the gulf, pulling moisture into Pierre's route other than the normal run of the mill isolated summer stuff typical in this area. The lines just didn't look like they were going to draw nasty stuff along their route.

With all that said, I agree with other's, a whole lot of other factors need to factored into the equation, but we only had what Webb presented us.

Nice exercise. But, after flying with weather on board.....how did we do it before.....:eek::D
 
miyu1975 said:
"I think the main points are good preflight planning, remain VMC, if on top of a deck make sure the metars below give a high enough ceiling so when you pop out after engine failure youn have a good chance of picking the site of the crash. Make sure you have a VMC out if weather worsens. Do not use XM to penetrate a line of cells or towering cums."

If you are VFR rated..you still go with this point?? Depending on cloud cover at destination, may get stuck on top.
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There is a simple premise it is safer to fly on top at 6-10,000' (or higher) rather than run scud - if there is a ceiling below to permit seeing the ground before hitting it with an engine failure and sufficient proficiency on instruments to glide through the under cast to VMC.

It also assumes weather will permit a VFR descent at destination and if not a plan to fly to an area that does permit a VFR descent.

Its the only way to travel on those hot, humid summer days with little visibility down low in the haze.
 
Flying on top of clouds of TBD coverage was something I never did until about 1.5 years ago. Then it was only with the cloud base several thousand feet AGL, clear below, limited cloud thickness, no freezing issues and having a wing leveler to preclude issues IF I had to descend through them.

Destination was clear and time over clouds was not extensive.

Flying in the east is still something that demands respect from my point of view and a willingness to stay on the ground.

Was the picture above from the Turks & Caicos trip?
 
The plan

First of all, Paul and Pete got their maps switched. Glad that Paul gets to visit family.

This is what I had planned for all but I was intersted in hearing from others.

I had Paul and Larry heading west splitting the cells and each hooking back around to follow the weather back home. However, since Larry really wants to do a cross country in formation, he elects to go with the southbound crowd.

Doug, Pete, Webb, Pierre, and Larry fly in a "V" pattern just to give ATC a heart attach and head to Tennessee for refueling and lunch. Since the front is only moving at 45 mph in a easterly direction and there is a high in the south keeping the front from heading southeast, that was the plan. They refuel near Nashville and get some great bar-b-q.

After lunch, all planes that landed in TN head towards their intended direction. Doug, Pete, and Webb are in severe clear. Pierre starts out in the clear and dodges a few cells in his area. Larry is the only one that could have an issue but by the time he got there, the front had moved on. Only problem is he now has to explain to his wife how he got a sunburn at the beach when the weather at Oshkosh was forcast for rain.

According the the 5 hour report, and afternoon report, this would have worked out.
 
Webb,

I saw this post today before launching on my airline trip this afternoon (ELP-ABQ-DEN-IND). Ended up flying behind (west of) but towards all the garbage (except for the stuff that popped up in DEN) and was watching it all the way.

METARs and TAFs would have played a big part in the decision, as Paul said, and I'd probably have planned for a.m. flying if the route allowed, and been prepared to stop once the weather really started booming in the heat of the afternoon (just my conservative approach in RVs, especially this time of year.

In looking at your early am map, my big concern was that it would build with the heat of the day, then hang in there and spread east and northeast because of the stationary front, and be fueled by the moisture from the lows (like Dana pointed out). My gut said that things could get worse to the west as the day wore on as well, especially if the weather over the Rockies fired up and moved into the plains. My first inclination (and granted, I'm really conservative) was that I'd stay put, unless I was headed to one of the furthest two SE locations. In those cases, I might launch for somewhere like Columbus, or somewhere east of Louisville for the first gas stop, and take a close look at the weather to see if the SE was building. Probably would have stopped for the day at the first pit stop, unless the SE stayed docile.

I see that fog hit the NW corner of the storm track after the storms passed (not uncommon), and that may have impacted the guys going around the backside.

A little off topic, but related...for us today, chasing this from the west, the weather did blow up a bit in DEN (we held for 45 minutes till the CB and microbursts moved off DEN, then snuck in between small lines along with everyone else holding), then launched for IND as the weather in your scenario moved east of it, with Louisville, which had also had the wx move to the east, as an alternate. However, the storm left somewhat low clg/vis in IND, which was 900 BKN, 1 1/2 BR on arrival. Not bad, but probably not what I'd want to do in an RV at 2300 local. The radar picture below doesn't show cloud cover (like we have in IND right now) that well, but if METARs and TAFs support it, it looks like tomorrow might be a better day to do all your routes (as long as OSH clears!).

usradarplususen.jpg


Since I'm a late addee to this thread, this is probably a little bit of Monday morning quaterbacking, but it's a great exercise...and probably something we'll all be doing at OSH for real in several weeks! Thought it might be fun to chime in as a guy that watched and flew behind that blob today (but my timing was fortunate, and I was glad it moved off IND before I got there!!) :)

Cheers,
Bob
 
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I have a Delta pilot/friend

...who runs the FBO at Jekyll Island (Georgia) when he's not doing the Atlanta/Mumbay run and I recently showed him my 496 running, showing CB's in the area. He was amazed and told me that we have more weather available in the cockpit than he does. Radar only sees what's ahead but we can see beyond that, while during intense rain, he cannot because of the obscuration from heavy rain.

Between Weathermeister, Intellicast, etc. trends can be seen and considered, as I did before my post. I did not however, see a need to post all that info since the question simply was, "Would you launch?"

Regards,
 
pierre smith said:
...Between Weathermeister, Intellicast, etc. trends can be seen and considered, as I did before my post. I did not however, see a need to post all that info since the question simply was, "Would you launch?"

Regards,
Click to expand...

The initial post was not "would you launch...but how would you plan around it".

Looking at the size of the cell going around, the stationary front, and size of the cell, I think all could have launched with no problem. Only one that really would have really been out of his way was Doug. However, he would take one for the team just so he could be the lead in the flying "V".

Another concern I had was the early AM area was so large that I felt it would probably double in size and some would not have been able to get out later in the day. The one thing I didn't want to see is anyone trying to penetrate the area since it had a lot of embedded thunderstorms. If it has just been light green and mild precip, it definately would have been an option.

Larry was the a lucky one here since he had 2 options. Go home or head to the beach. For him, both masses were heading east and left him a clear shot coming in from the west on either location.

As for me, I would have probably broken off formation and stopped in LEX at my parents house to visit and refuel.

Pierre, as you implied....our on board XM WX is a major assistance to pilots. Although it may be a few minutes old, it is an invaluable tool so we can stay the heck away.

One thing about this thread. It shows you that pilots that fly around this type of WX have similiar thoughts and plan their routes with safety in mind. I like it.
 
Same old thing....

The current weather pattern that prompted this thread continues and it is caused by stuck high over the Gulf of Mexico. It has been sitting there for 2 weeks plus and it does not appear it will move during the next 3 or 4 days. Every front that comes down the center of the country bumps into it and gets pushed back up north bringing much neat and moisture from the gulf. I have observed 6.5 inches of rain in our gage over the past 10 days. Tomorrow it will hit 98F and on Friday there will be another fireworks day of lightening, thunder and more rain a cold front tries to push south.

Its a good year for plants but sure makes for a soggy runway.
 
1-800-wx-brief

make a call and do one leg at a time. wait when needed, file vfr or ifr whatever needed. a great wx briefer can make a big difference. call back if not satisfied. general rule- fly at 1,500 or 10,000. have fun and a plan B.
 
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