[Jkkinz]

Knew that title would get your attention...I saw this report on Fox news earlier today and thought all of you would find it an interesting read.

Mismanagement and underinvestment by the U.S. Air Force could possibly lead to the failure and blackout of the Global Positioning System (GPS), a federal watchdog agency says.
The risk of failure starts in 2010, according to the Government Accountability Office (GAO) report quoted by PC World.
The failure would impact not only military operations, but also the millions of people and businesses who rely on the satellite-based navigation systems built into cars, boats and cell phones.
"If the Air Force does not meet its schedule goals for development of GPS IIIA satellites, there will be an increased likelihood that in 2010, as old satellites begin to fail, the overall GPS constellation will fall below the number of satellites required to provide the level of GPS service that the U.S. government commits to," the GAO report states.

 

[Vlad]

There is always an alternative

Jim do not worry we will get either GLONASS from Russians or Global-something from EU By the way there still are VORs, some NDBs and good old sectionals.

 

[Jkkinz]

Vlad,

I am not at all worried, I just liked "THE SKY IS FALLING" reporting by [this particular] news media [outlet].

 

[Vlad]

I have no time to watch TV do not even know when and what will fail...
But just in case I keep my navigational skills sharp

Vlad,

I am not at all worried, I just liked "THE SKY IS FALLING" reporting by [this particular] news media [outlet].

 

[kentb]

2010, hummmm....

Knew that title would get your attention...I saw this report on Fox news earlier today and thought all of you would find it an interesting read.

Mismanagement and underinvestment by the U.S. Air Force could possibly lead to the failure and blackout of the Global Positioning System (GPS), a federal watchdog agency says.
The risk of failure starts in 2010, according to the Government Accountability Office (GAO) report quoted by PC World.
The failure would impact not only military operations, but also the millions of people and businesses who rely on the satellite-based navigation systems built into cars, boats and cell phones.
"If the Air Force does not meet its schedule goals for development of GPS IIIA satellites, there will be an increased likelihood that in 2010, as old satellites begin to fail, the overall GPS constellation will fall below the number of satellites required to provide the level of GPS service that the U.S. government commits to," the GAO report states.

Those satellites weren't made by Microsoft were they!

Kent

 

[CJK]

Those satellites weren't made by Microsoft were they!

That reminds me of that old joke, "The first thing that Microsoft makes that doesn't s*ck will be a vacuum cleaner."

And now, back to our regularly scheduled Forum...

-- Chris

 

[N62XS]

FOX has "news"?

Not sure who said it, but he was talking about all of the 24/7 "news" channels.
"Don't believe anything you hear and only half of what you read". I may have it backwards, but it goes along with the old adage, "Good news is no news".

 

[Alex]

Better Yet

Those satellites weren't made by Microsoft were they!t

No, but they might have been made by these guys:

http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=10299

http://images.spaceref.com/news/2003/9.6.2003_06.lrg.jpg

 

[Garage Guy]

Not sure who said it, but he was talking about all of the 24/7 "news" channels.
"Don't believe anything you hear and only half of what you read".

Roger that; better to go to the source, which is a recent GAO report: http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d09325.pdf As they say, read the whole thing, but here's a quote:

"It is uncertain whether the Air Force will be able to acquire new satellites in time to maintain current GPS service without interruption.... If the Air Force does not meet its schedule goals... there will be an increased likelihood that in 2010, ...the overall GPS constellation will fall below the number of satellites required to provide the level of GPS service that the U.S. government commits to."

The report concludes that there is a 10% chance of having fewer than 24 working satellites in the constellation in 2010, and a 90% chance of that in 2017.

--Paul

 

[DeltaRomeo]

Good link Paul! Thanks for listing that.

b,
dr

Roger that; better to go to the source, which is a recent GAO report: http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d09325.pdf As they say, read the whole thing, but here's a quote:

"It is uncertain whether the Air Force will be able to acquire new satellites in time to maintain current GPS service without interruption.... If the Air Force does not meet its schedule goals... there will be an increased likelihood that in 2010, ...the overall GPS constellation will fall below the number of satellites required to provide the level of GPS service that the U.S. government commits to."

The report concludes that there is a 10% chance of having fewer than 24 working satellites in the constellation in 2010, and a 90% chance of that in 2017.

--Paul

 

[BuckWynd]

If the Air Force does not meet its schedule goals... there will be an increased likelihood that in 2010, ...the overall GPS constellation will fall below the number of satellites required to provide the level of GPS service that the U.S. government commits to.

I'm quite certain the Air Force will be directed to keep the GPS constellation at an adequate level for us to navigate with. The sheer magnitude of commerce that is conducted using GPS today is staggering -- from interstate trucking, to air and marine navigation, to mapping and surveying... not to mention all the consumer devices that depend on GPS.

It ain't going away. The GAO report is one of many doomsday reports that are written specifically for politial and budget reasons. Sometimes they have to scare people before the politicians will cough up more money for a program. And they will.

My 0.2583 Pesos...

 

[David-aviator]

And if all else fails...

....sectional charts are still being printed.

 

[L.Adamson]

....sectional charts are still being printed.

If I had to navigate around all the restricted areas (military) around here with a sectional chart, I'd probably have been busted a few times by now. Or just stayed far away.

With a GPS, we can keep one wing a foot or so from the boundary line, and the other wing a few feet from rising cliffs! That's how it is in this part of the world!

L.Adamson --- RV6A

 

[Kevin Horton]

I asked our GPS expert about this a week ago. He said that the report was looking at GPS from the military perspective, as a world wide system that did not use the WAAS signals. The WAAS geostationary satellites, in addition to the WAAS corrections, also send a navigation signal that effectively provides the equivalent of an extra satellite, always in view.

His conclusion was that the situation for civil GPS users in North America, with WAAS receivers, was not nearly as bad as suggested by this report.

 

[David-aviator]

I asked our GPS expert about this a week ago. He said that the report was looking at GPS from the military perspective, as a world wide system that did not use the WAAS signals. The WAAS geostationary satellites, in addition to the WAAS corrections, also send a navigation signal that effectively provides the equivalent of an extra satellite, always in view.

His conclusion was that the situation for civil GPS users in North America, with WAAS receivers, was not nearly as bad as suggested by this report.

I am not ruling out anything.

Look at the great state of California this morning - a run away budget deficit that won't quit and no one with the guts to solve it, not the voters, not the elected officials. The federal financial picture is about as bad with more red ink than ever...where's it all going to end?

The cost of GPS is peanuts compared to other expenditures but it is an "aviation" related item and politically in the cross hairs as always. Look at Missouri - thousands of aviators are receiving letters from the state revenue department seeking a "use" tax on the purchase of anything related to experimental aviation. Now guys with regular certified airplanes are getting the same letters. Mine goes back to 2003 and they also want a huge chunk of money on penalties. They are using the FAA's data base as evidence of owning an airplane and if there is no record of paying this tax, which most people did not know exited, out goes the nasty money grubbing letter. I am checking into whether there is a statute of limitations on what they are doing.

Thank goodness the military needs GPS and it will probably survive. But we may not survive financially as there probably will be a tax on breathing before long.

 

[the_other_dougreeves]

So, having a NAV/LOC/GS radio in your IFR airplane is looking pretty good these days, yes? Dissimilar redundancy always covers your hide....

TODR

 

[Ironflight]

The cost of GPS is peanuts compared to other expenditures but it is an "aviation" related item and politically in the cross hairs as always.

In actuality, I bet that if we actually listed all of the users of GPS, aviation would be way down the list. GPS is now so pervasive in our society that it's loss would be a HUGE impact to all areas of the economy. It ranks right up there with highways, so I am not to worried...oh wait, what's that I hear about bridge collapses due to lack of maintenance?

Paul

 

[David-aviator]

In actuality, I bet that if we actually listed all of the users of GPS, aviation would be way down the list. GPS is now so pervasive in our society that it's loss would be a HUGE impact to all areas of the economy. It ranks right up there with highways, so I am not to worried...oh wait, what's that I hear about bridge collapses due to lack of maintenance?

Paul

Speaking of maintenance, congrats to NASA on the Hubble telescope work.

I've been listening to some lectures by Alex Filippenko from The Teaching Company on Understanding the Universe. Data and images from Hubble have contributed more to understanding what is going on in the universe than anything since the beginning of dirt. The subject is most fascinating.

 

[Steve Brown]

What?

........Look at the great state of California this morning - a run away budget deficit that won't quit and no one with the guts to solve it, not the voters, not the elected officials. .......

David,

I voted to solve the problem. My vote said: "You can't have any more of my money. Fix the problem by spending less."

GPS is too essential to the military to be allowed degrade. I'm betting it won't happen. My answer is the same there: "Keep GPS running without taking any more of my money"

 

[RV6_flyer]

No, but they might have been made by these guys:

http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=10299

http://images.spaceref.com/news/2003/9.6.2003_06.lrg.jpg

Just reading this thread for the first time.

I do not see where anyone looked up who is manufacturing or when the launch date is.

Hope these links help. If the above links are correct, this is only a POTENTIAL problem.

 

[breister]

If you read the fine print in the report, you are likely to come away with the notion (probably true) that all this means is that we MIGHT not be able to perform precision approaches using GPS more of the time than originally planned.

We will still be able to navigate. If the satellites last longer than planned (usually the case these days - look at the Mars rovers) there will be no impact.

 

[the_other_dougreeves]

Hope these links help. If the above links are correct, this is only a POTENTIAL problem.

Reading the report, I agree. It's a potential problem. The largest of these (pardon the pun) is that the cost of the Block IIF Sats will find up being over double the original estimate (seems to be about standard for DoD projects). Another problem is that there seems to be no one office who can make decisions to keep things moving forward on schedule.

GPS is one of those pieces of infrastructure like the commercial AC power grid that we mostly take for granted and are really screwed when it fails. So far, GPS has been reliable, but that means very little in terms of future reliability.

GPS is not cheap, but when the costs are compared to the cost savings, it's amazing.

TODR

 

[Alex]

Clarification

No, but they might have been made by these guys:

http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=10299

http://images.spaceref.com/news/2003...003_06.lrg.jpg

I do not see where anyone looked up who is manufacturing or when the launch date is.

Just want to be sure no one misinterprets my previous post, which was in jest. The links I provided were a description of a manufacturing mishap at Lockheed during the production of a NOAA-N Prime satellite for NASA Goddard/NOAA (unrelated to GPS in any way). Lockheed is the manufacturer for at least some of the GPS constellation.

 

[SteinAir]

All this from a report by the "Government Accountability" Office....

Those two words in one sentence - really ?!?!

Cheers,
Stein

Oooops...we're not supposed to talk politics - sorry for that!