A salute to Doug Rozendaal.. His recent post on the 800 lb gorilla popped into my head this moring when I was reading a FAA safety tip on don't be stupid.
FAASTeam Safety Tip
by Max Trescott, author and 2008 National CFI of the Year
How Will it Read in the NTSB Report?
When in doubt about a possible course of action, I think about how any subsequent NTSB report might read. Recently, a student and I had already started the engine, but the ATIS reported a direct crosswind gusting to the aircraft?s maximum demonstrated crosswind capability. The student was ready to go, but I stopped him and we terminated the flight.
This scenario ties in directly with my Safety Tip #3 about using the word ?probably? as a trigger to consider whether there are any better options available to you. That tip drew more comments than anything I?ve ever written, and I?ve reposted the article and many of the comments. In the case of the crosswind, in all probability, the wind would not have reached a peak gust at the exact moment we took off, and we would not have had an accident. To proceed, however, would have been to take a gamble. Although I?d like to think that I?ll always be lucky, that?s a self-delusionary thought. Realistically, no one can be lucky all the time.
I?d also like to think?perhaps as you do?that I?m an above-average pilot and could rely upon my superior flying skills if a problem occurred. That may also be delusional thinking for some pilots. Surveys consistently show that more than 80 percent of pilots rate their skills as above average. The logical conclusion is that pilots are a confident bunch and we overrate our abilities. Or, perhaps 30% of us may have poor math skills, because only 50 percent of pilots could be ?above average.?
With the high-crosswind takeoff that my student and I assessed, we were dealing with compound probabilities. To take off would be to hope that the wind didn?t exceed the aircraft?s capabilities, but, if it did, to hope that our superior skills would extricate us from that situation. That?s a lot of hope and, candidly speaking, I never want to have to fly a plane on hope alone.
After we shut down the engine, I asked my student, ?If we had had an accident, how would we have explained it to the Chief Pilot?? The most honest answer I could think of was ?that we were stupid.? I?m very glad I didn?t have to have that conversation.
FAASTeam Safety Tip
by Max Trescott, author and 2008 National CFI of the Year
How Will it Read in the NTSB Report?
When in doubt about a possible course of action, I think about how any subsequent NTSB report might read. Recently, a student and I had already started the engine, but the ATIS reported a direct crosswind gusting to the aircraft?s maximum demonstrated crosswind capability. The student was ready to go, but I stopped him and we terminated the flight.
This scenario ties in directly with my Safety Tip #3 about using the word ?probably? as a trigger to consider whether there are any better options available to you. That tip drew more comments than anything I?ve ever written, and I?ve reposted the article and many of the comments. In the case of the crosswind, in all probability, the wind would not have reached a peak gust at the exact moment we took off, and we would not have had an accident. To proceed, however, would have been to take a gamble. Although I?d like to think that I?ll always be lucky, that?s a self-delusionary thought. Realistically, no one can be lucky all the time.
I?d also like to think?perhaps as you do?that I?m an above-average pilot and could rely upon my superior flying skills if a problem occurred. That may also be delusional thinking for some pilots. Surveys consistently show that more than 80 percent of pilots rate their skills as above average. The logical conclusion is that pilots are a confident bunch and we overrate our abilities. Or, perhaps 30% of us may have poor math skills, because only 50 percent of pilots could be ?above average.?
With the high-crosswind takeoff that my student and I assessed, we were dealing with compound probabilities. To take off would be to hope that the wind didn?t exceed the aircraft?s capabilities, but, if it did, to hope that our superior skills would extricate us from that situation. That?s a lot of hope and, candidly speaking, I never want to have to fly a plane on hope alone.
After we shut down the engine, I asked my student, ?If we had had an accident, how would we have explained it to the Chief Pilot?? The most honest answer I could think of was ?that we were stupid.? I?m very glad I didn?t have to have that conversation.
