hecilopter

Well Known Member
I saw on the news yesterday that fuel prices at the pump were increasing again due to several reasons. The most interesting was a change in chemical composition of the fuel to eliminate MTBE and replace it with ethanol.

One of the reasons I went with the Superior XP-360 engine in my airplane was its ability to use super unleaded auto fuel if aviation fuel ever became unavailable/unreasonable to obtain. One of the warnings in the owner's manual, however, was that auto fuel with any ethanol content was forbidden. Any other auto gas 91 octane and above with no ethanol was fine in any mixture with avgas or straight.

Has anyone else seen this/have any insight? Are they really about to put ethanol in ALL auto fuel? This completely eliminates is usability as an aviation fuel. Very disappointing.

:(
 
If the News is right...

hecilopter said:
Has anyone else seen this/have any insight? Are they really about to put ethanol in ALL auto fuel? This completely eliminates is usability as an aviation fuel. Very disappointing.

:(

That certainly seems to be the way I interpret it - they are going to be putting ethanol in all the auto gas - at least that is what they are saying! Last fall, when the price of gas spiked in Houston at $3.00/gallon, they blamed it on the hurricane. Now the excuse is Ethanol....

I always heard the reason to fly with Mogas was to save money! Right now, you can get 100LL at Anahuac or Liberty (TX) for $2.70 a gallon. Regular Unleaded autogas as Kroger (here in Houston? $2.70 per gallon. Go figure....

Paul
 
MBTE is a good octane booster that replaced lead additives, but it also is a serious water polluter once it gets spilled on the ground or flushed into storm drains.

Methanol and ethanol are small molecules that attack some kinds of rubber. Ill bet the problem with your motor involves "cheap" seals and o-rings in the fuel pump- something that can likely be substituted for better materials if a widespread changeover in fuels is mandated. Ethanol adds oxygen to the fuel, which reduces ozone generation. It also increases the octane rating, which slows down the fuel burn rate and reduces detonation.
 
cobra said:
Methanol and ethanol are small molecules that attack some kinds of rubber. Ill bet the problem with your motor involves "cheap" seals and o-rings in the fuel pump- something that can likely be substituted for better materials if a widespread changeover in fuels is mandated.
I'll pretend to know something about this... Ethanol is an alcohol that will (and does) boil at a surprisingly low tempature at altitude, hence turning to vapor in the lines. Not good. Mogas with ethanol in it has no business in a general aviation application unless you really know what you're doing. Be careful.
 
Gasoline is a blend of many different hydrocarbons, and most of them are as or more volatile than alcohols. The gas companies have added ethanol additives (they call them oxygenates) during the summer to control ozone and carbon monoxide emissions in many urban areas for years- no reports of excessive vapor locking that Ive seen to date.
 
Come on guys! Ethanol is another fuel source that you may have problems with now because you live in the 19th century. If it can work in a car driving up a mountain road like Pikes Peak at 14,000' don't you think you can figure out a way to make it work in your airplane flying at 8,000'?

scard said:
Ethanol is an alcohol that will (and does) boil at a surprisingly low tempature at altitude, hence turning to vapor in the lines. Not good. Mogas with ethanol in it has no business in a general aviation application unless you really know what you're doing. Be careful.
If vapor lock scares you then figure out a solution to get the vapor out of the engine (hmmmm, those Andair fuel valves with the vapor return lines sound awfully handy). :rolleyes: Oh, I suppose if you do that you might also have to give up that most wonderous of other engine components called the carburator too. Wouldn't that be a horrible thing in deed?

I wonder if any of those racers who enter the annual Pikes Peak Race use ethanol in any of their engines? If so, I wonder if they have figured out how to avoid the dreaded vapor lock at 14,000'?

hecilopter said:
One of the warnings in the owner's manual, however, was that auto fuel with any ethanol content was forbidden.
Why is it "forbidden"? Because the manufacturer of that engine is looking at those old rubber gaskets, seals, o-rings, etc. that he has always used since he began building engines in 19 ott something or other and knows that alcohol can and does destroy the rubber. If he would spend his 1.50 per part on an Ethanol friendly gasket, seal or o-ring rather than the "I've always done it this way" gasket, seal or o-ring I don't think he would "forbid" Ethanol any longer. My guess is that he would all of a sudden be touting the wonders of Ethanol and charging a premium for the "new" 1.50 per part Ethanol widget that he has "added" to his engine.

Again, why does such a "high performance" industry like aviation have to play catch up to the rest of the internal combustion world? The engine can handle the Ethanol just fine. If the subsequent other components cannot do so then find a replacement for those other components. Problem solved. You don't have to give up your favorite pasttime of burning holes in the sky. The world will not come to an end.

I don't see why we can't make the necessary changes to our engine designs to allow for this cleaner burning fuel choice even in our airplanes. Every problem has a solution. This one will too. I, for one, believe that 99.999% of problem solutions do not need to involve any kind of government regulation. That goes for regulations designed to "save" aviation from the ghastly horrors of an ever changing world. So, I sure hope we do not beg and bargain for government regulation in this fuel issue either.

Build your airplanes to new standards and you might find out that those new standards may be better than the old ones.

RVBYSDI
Steve
RV9A Slow Build
 
Right on!

RVbySDI said:
...I don't see why we can't make the necessary changes to our engine designs to allow for this cleaner burning fuel choice even in our airplanes. Every problem has a solution. This one will too. I, for one, believe that 99.999% of problem solutions do not need to involve any kind of government regulation. That goes for regulations designed to "save" aviation from the ghastly horrors of an ever changing world. So, I sure hope we do not beg and bargain for government regulation in this fuel issue either.

Build your airplanes to new standards and you might find out that those new standards may be better than the old ones.
Right on, Steve! The solutions to vapor lock are known, and can be applied to aviation. Gasoline with ethanol works fine in aircraft if you use the right rubber, FI, and take care of vapor lock. Ask anyone flying with an auto conversion.

All it will take is one sensationalist TV report that says that we are spraying lead into the air and avgas could be gone very quickly. We must adapt.
 
If alcohol boils off with less ambient pressure, I think it will boil off at altitude more readily vs. sea level. If that happens will the octane of the fuel change because there is less alcohol in it? May be a non issue, may be an important one ? Will the quantity of fuel in the tanks be affected? Some fuels around here has as much as 15% ethanol, a small percent change in fuel consumption due to the alcohol venting off at 10,000 feet might negate the lesser cost of the fuel. Again maybe a non issue but maybe an important one. Another issue is, the blends of automotive fuel vary greatly with season and climate. It is very easy to change climates during aircraft operation on the same tank of fuel but difficult to do in a car. Just thinking out loud...
Good Luck,
Mahlon
"The opinions and information provided in this and all of my posts are hopefully helpful to you. Please use the information provided responsibly and at you own risk."
 
OK, So....

I am perfectly willing to acept what I believe to be the very small potential for vapor lock. That only leaves the problem with the fuel system's material incompatability with alcohol - seals and O-rings, I would guess. I have asked this before, and no one has brought forth the answer, so here again is the question - can someone show me a parts list of what needs to be replaced in a stock carb'ed engine to make it compatible? Think fuel tank to throttle body, and everything in between. Honestly, it can't be that many pieces - but do the proper O-rings and gaskets (in the right materials) exist? I don't know.

Disolving seal material is going to potentially give you gunk, and that is worse in my opinion than vapor lock anyway - becasue it doesn't go away. Prevent that, and I'd be a lot more inclined to run Mogas! To me, in order for a risk to aceptable, you need to be able to understand it, to quantify it. Once you've done that, it is a known risk, and you buy off on it with an educated opinion - not a guess...

Paul
 
True oil independence

All anyone has to do is look towards Brazil as shining example of how to rid one's self of the Rubic's cube of Middle Eastern oil politics and the economic stranglehold of international oil companies. In 1973, Brazil embarked on a program to do just that and as of this year, that nation will realize total oil energy independence. How did they manage to do that? With SUGAR, that's how. The U.S. produces ethanol from corn and only a small percentage is added as a supplement to petroleum fuel. Brazil committed itself to and developed the technology to produce ethanol from sugar cane and 100% of it is used to fill vehicles at the pump. Although the fuel mileage is somewhat less than that produced from petroleum based fuels, the Brazilians say that does not matter largely because their 100% sugar ethanol is less costly to produce, distribute and sell. American officials, while looking closely at Brazil's efforts claim it would take decades for this nation to copy the Brazilian model. Yeah, right.

I should note those clever South Americans also managed to develop an aviation fuel using sugar ethanol technology. Perhaps we should invite their people to enlighten our people as to exactly how they managed to tame the evil twin sisters known as "gasket eater" and "vapor lock."

The single-seat EMB 202 Ipanema is the first production-series model approved by aviation authorities to run on ethanol produced from sugar cane. Lycoming makes the IO-540 engine for the Ipanema. Many hundreds of them are in service.

Rick Galati RV-6A "Darla"
 
Mogas

Ironflight said:
...can someone show me a parts list of what needs to be replaced in a stock carb'ed engine to make it compatible? Think fuel tank to throttle body, and everything in between. Honestly, it can't be that many pieces - but do the proper O-rings and gaskets (in the right materials) exist? I don't know. ...

Fuel tank - OK
Proseal - OK
Fuel level senders - OK
Van's standard fuel cap o-ring - ?
Van's deluxe fuel cap o-ring - OK
Van's flop tube hose - OK
Van's flop tube brass pickup o-ring - ?
AL tubing from tank to fuel selector - OK
Van's fuel selector - ?
Andair fuel selector - OK
Fuel flow meter - ?
Facet pump - OK
FI Boost pump - ?
Fuel Filter - ?
Carburetor/fuel injection system - ?

This is my crack at a list of things to watch.

Of course, I have a Subaru, so it's got no problem with any type of mogas, but you need to check with your engine supplier to find out what kinds of possible trouble they can see with the carb and FI systems. Same deal with the FI boost pumps.
 
Alt. Fuels

here are several links for ethanol AV use/production:

Av-ethanol:

http://www.sdcorn.org/sdcorn/ethanol/default.asp


300-400 A/C in fly with ethanol in Brazil:

http://www.news24.com/News24/Technology/News/0,,2-13-1443_1677017,00.html


FAA certifies lead-free, ethanol-based airplane fuel (Posted: 02-Aug-99)

http://www.carbohydrateeconomy.org/News/news.cfm?News_ID=135


Flying A/C in the US:

http://www.age85.org/ActiveProjects.htm


I'm no pc wiz so you may have to cut and paste the links into your browser.

I have extensively researched Bio-diesel for use in autos [and really don't understand why we don't have millions of gallons being produced NOW for auto/truck use in the USA] and just a little on ethanol use.

Both ethanol and BioD are slightly different than what is the current norm. Just like natural gas was slightly different than coal for home heating and electric use different than whale oil for lighting. We simply must adapt.

I've settled on using a lycoming engine [I WANT a diesel and really like the idea of an auto alternative] but what is currently available is not currently COMPELLING as superior [yet]. It will be. When Brazil decided to ween itself off of dino fuels in the 70's they accepted the temporary inefficiencies and are reaping the benefits of that infrastructure investment now. I'm old enough to be patient and young enough that I hope to own a practical diesel A/C some day.

At some point the current fuel systems will be superceded. It isn't a question. It is a function of circumstances economic/political/supply [some terrorist nukes Saudia Arabia or Soviet oil fields and see how fast we evolve into an alternative].

Like alternative power plants, alternative fuel supplies will at some point become 'the norm' and our great grand kids will be squabbling over [ewwww, why use bio-diesel when you can use the micro-nuclear reactor from Ajax/roadrunner Co?] what the next new source of fuel is...

Geesh, neither human nature nor history changes..... :D

Best Regards,

John

edit for spelling
 
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I?m no expert but this is what I have heard in the past:

MTBE and Ethanol were mandated gasoline additives not because they posted octane but because they were supposed to help reduce pollution. The truth of it is they both increased fuel consumption because they held less energy than straight gasoline and thus the reduction in pollutants were negligible.

There is a lot to be said about the government mandating the use of MTBE and the health and water pollution issues involved. That discussion should be left for another thread.

Ethanol absorbs water, which is one reason why it is not recommended for aviation use. The breakdown of natural rubber parts within your fuel system is secondary, IMHO, as they can be replaced with synthetics.

I would suspect airboat operators would know what the results of using Ethanol laced gas in aircraft engines is as I?m sure they are not using 100LL in their boats.
 
Summary

Oh, boy, my favorite subject - mogas!

Many good points scattered throughout the previous posts. A few other points for here and now are:

EAA says up to 5% ethanol is allowable (it's buried somewhere on their web site). Soft materials seem tolerant of this amount of "contamination"; it's not an octane issue.

You can design a fuel system to mitigate the effects of lower vapor pressure of ethanol, but do remember the underhood temps of aircraft are bound to be much higher than autos.

Ethanol does suck up water, but engines don't run on straight water very well, either. I might be concerned about refueling in 100% humidity, then rocketing up to 30,000 feet where ice crystals may precipitate.

Couple months ago, EPA pulled their mandate for oxygenates, recognizing that refiners can make clean gas without such, and engine controls are so good that emissions still meet regs.

Now the soap box: ethanol is a sop to the corn lobby. Tying our fuel supply to agricultural variances is plain foolish; we've enough trouble already with crude supplies. The many boutique fuels mandated by gotta-do-something! governments drive up the cost of refining and distribution. Your biggest enemy in the fuel wars is government: regs and taxes. The oil companies price by cost, not profit, there's too much competition. If you think not, I trust you own oil stocks.

I think I'll go sniff some more 100LL exhaust. It does smell better than mogas.

John Siebold
 
Ironflight said:
To me, in order for a risk to aceptable, you need to be able to understand it, to quantify it. Once you've done that, it is a known risk, and you buy off on it with an educated opinion - not a guess...
So, isn't this the real crux of our problem? "To Understand it, to quantify it." As much as we builders like to think we are soooo knowledgeable about all things aviation, we really are in the dark sometimes. Is anyone out there willing to admit the reality of the fact that some of this stuff we are doing with our magnificent flying machines we really don't know much about? We just go along with what we heard someone else say.

"No fuel injectors for me! I understand how a carburator works so I am not going to change something I know works!" "electronic ignition? No way, I don't trust them (read, I don't understand them)!" Does anyone remember just a few years ago how many arguments were being published against using these fancy new GPS systems and those confounded EFIS thingy magigers in place of steam gauges? How much "woe is me! The sky is falling!" whining went on about those changes?

Deuskid said:
Geesh, neither human nature nor history changes.....
Amen to that brother! We human beings are absolutely scared to death anytime something new comes our way that we are forced to deal with. And, hey, lest you start thinking I don't think about it myself, I have also been known to get bent out of shape because I had to change the way I did something. The last time I looked in the mirror I was human also. I am afraid I cannot be excluded from such an affliction. Its just that I am willing to accept this human trait as one I can do something about. I am willing to try to look at changes in a different light. If we all would be a little more open to things new or different we might find life would be much better and easier.

If anyone is concerned about something like this Ethanol issue go out there and find out what can be found out about it. Of course, I, for one, would be very interested in reading about what you discovered once you did find out. I enjoy learning new things from those of you out there who have the 411!

Thanks for reading my posts and happy building to all, :)
RVBYSDI
Steve
RV9A slow build
 
Here is something to chew on regarding alternative fuels... ethanol has an octane rating around 120 and could probably work quite well in air cooled motors, albiet with a little less power output. What are you high compression Lycosaurs going to burn when 100LL is no longer available- rebuild or change motors to the automotive alternative options you all love to hate so much? :mad:

FWIW, toluene or nitromethane might substitute, occasionally available but much more expensive. Compressed natural gas systems are much too heavy and potentially dangerous.
 
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RV7ator said:
Now the soap box: ethanol is a sop to the corn lobby. Tying our fuel supply to agricultural variances is plain foolish; we've enough trouble already with crude supplies. The many boutique fuels mandated by gotta-do-something! governments drive up the cost of refining and distribution. Your biggest enemy in the fuel wars is government: regs and taxes. The oil companies price by cost, not profit, there's too much competition. If you think not, I trust you own oil stocks.

I think I'll go sniff some more 100LL exhaust. It does smell better than mogas.

John Siebold
Wow! John, I think you have already been sniffing too much of that 100LL. The lead has made its way to your brain!

I am right there with you on the issue of government regulation. The last thing we need is more government regulations, more FAA hogwash supporting either side of the argument.

But come on John! What a contradiction you have made in one small paragraph. ". . . there's too much competition" is what is driving up the price of fuel? Since my early days in Economics 101 I have never heard any expert state that more competition increases price. Competition will stabalize prices and eventually drive them down in any industry.

"The oil companies price on cost, not profit." Again, what Economics class did you pull this from? Cost doesn't dictate selling price. Demand is what these oil companies use to set their price. Heard of the notion of "Supply and Demand"? If one goes up the other goes down. Listen to any excuse given by any analyst studying pricing structures and they will always tie the price to some event(s) that affected either the supply chain or the demand for the product. They never discuss the cost to produce as a price driver, ever.

Why is that? Hmmmm! How about trying this on for size? As long as there is more demand for a product than what can be supplied to the consumer the company will make money (cover costs and make a profit by pricing the product at an amount that consumers will be willing to pay). If supply excedes the demand for the product the company will stand to loose money (not cover cost and loose profit because they now have a product priced above what consumers are will ing to pay).

Now, imagine, if you will, competition for that companies product (Ethanol decreases the demand for petroleum). If consumers are buying less of the companies product (decrease in demand) because they don't need it any more, what do you suppose will happen with the amount of money (profit) that company will make from their product if they do not alter the price of their product? They can't have their profits decrease so what do they do? They try to manipulate demand by decreasing supply to shore up the demand bubble that is shrinking. Now, if they are able to increase demand for their product they will usually have done it by decreasing the price for their product. Consumers start buying the product again as price falls. Voila! Demand increases for the product.

If this manipulation does not work then the only other recourse for the company is to try to decrease their costs which help to shore up their profits because less of the incoming money has to go to the costs part of the equation and can go instead to the profit part. Of course this works in their favor only as long as the demand (and price for the product) can stay above that amount that will allow the company to cover costs. Once the company reaches a point where they can no longer decrease the selling price without going below the cost to produce they are in serious trouble. Their profit is gone and they now can not cover the cost to produce. Can you say "Bye Bye"? The company bids a fond fairwell to all!

So that competition you are saying there is too much of is very important to keeping prices down. Without it the company can push the demand around at will. They know there is no other alternative for the consumer but to accept the company's price (can you say monopoly?) if they want the benefits associated with using the product. They have "capturered" the market and feel oh so smart about controlling the world (you have heard of OPEC before haven't you?).

"There's too much competition." GIVE ME A BREAK! :rolleyes:

RVBYSDI
Steve
 
Dew points and Bubble points of ethanol

Dew Point and Bubble Point Results

Component id 138, Ethanol, C2H6O , mole fraction 1.0000000
Dew point pressure at 325.0 Kelvin(~125F) = 32.3 kPa absolute.
Bubble point pressure at 325.0 Kelvin =32.3 Kpa absolute.

It looks like if your fuel is 125F then vapor lock won't occur unless the pressure drops below 32.3 kPa (9.5 in Hg).

You might need a boost pump to keep the NPSH of the mechanical fuel pump above 9.5 in HG if the fuel temp exceeds 125F there.

Just playing around with numbers to see what design considerations need to be made to switch to ethanol.

Nice thermo site: http://www.questconsult.com/~jrm/dewbub.html

-mike
 
Sneering condescension doesn't favorably impress me, Steve. Re-read my post but think GM. Business must price on costs or they're dead. Your essay and my statement agree as far as economics are concerned. You've taken a long way around the barn to say the price of gas is manipulted and there's no competition. Congress keeps trying to make the same connection every time constituents squeal; subpeona those oil execs! Nothing ever comes of it because XOM/CVX/COP and the rest do indeed compete with each other for your gas dollar. There's no price collusion, and they don't set a price then add costs to assure profit. Though I'm paying 1,000% more for gas now than in the '50s, the share dividends have remained more or less the same (small) percentage. "The oil companies price on cost, not profit."

The raw material each requires does have its cartels impacting crude availability, or lack of it, or perception of a lack, which does indeed immediately affect the price of gas. I wasn't addressing that issue.

What to exchange fire on, oh, greenhouse gases and global warming?

I don't. I've an airplane to build.

John Siebold
 
Econ 101

only in perfect competition is market price based solely upon cost and results in no economic profit [defined as accounting profit and no market premium]. In monoplistic competition, oligopolies and in monopolies then there is economic profit [a technical defination that can be refined to: the consumer somehow gets screwed]. Each of the last 3 then can be broken down into sub categories more closely defining exact producer and consuer behavior.

With the oil producers and refiners as they are today they are an oligopolistic model with a kinked demand and kinked supply curve.

Oil and energy is no where near in a free market position. There are artifical constraints imposed by the suppliers [oil producing countries], refiners [only a few world wide] and gov'ts [with their tax and regulatory impositions].

Oh, yes, btw... I do own energy stocks...

and do have degrees in economics, accounting, and about 7 regulatory licenses that allow me to sell investment advice as well as any investment product which may be appropiate for you to own.

I don't say this to brag, only to let you know that I have considerable perspective to my observations as I teach Econ [and other business subjects] in an accredited MBA program in addition to having my own investment advisement practice.

Again, energy is no longer a free market comodity. It is frought with artificial constraints. Not, gloom and doom, but alternatives will need to be developed [and will be [that is the beauty of our Capitalistic economy]] to right the current imbalance.

There are always imbalances and profits are made in capitalizing upon them during the period of imbalance. Saying there isn't an imbalance is simply wrong.

all the best,

John
 
Mogas - My results

Tried a tank of premium unleaded in the summer in Denver - no problem. In fact no noticieable difference. All good.

Tried a tank in the winter (I found out later that it contains 15% ethanol in the winter in Denver) and twenty minutes out at 8000 feet and 40 degrees it started to missfire. Had to go excessively rich to stop it. Boost pump of no help. Landed and ran it up and experienced the same thing. Managed to get home running 10.5 gph.

On the next flight found the fuel pressure to be lower and swinging wildly. Took the fuel pump apart and the check valve diaphram had shrunk partially away from its seat. $200 replacement. I also had to remove a bit of gunk from the main jet in the injector body a couple of flights later.

I would say that the more appropriate term for the observed effect of ethanol on Lycoming fuel pump diaphram material (no idea if it is rubber or EPDM or other) is "drying" via solution or removal of plasticizers in the material.

Airflow Performance fuel injection system. All seemed to be OK with the seals gaskets in the injection system proper. Airflow says it is good up to 100 percent ethanol in other apps.

Probably experienced some sort of vapor lock or boiling. Fuel injection systems apparently do not like bubbles in the system. This with a shrouded and blast tube equipped, 20 psi fuel pump.

All probably could be solved with some effort. Maybe run a dual electric pump set up with both in a cool spot and insulated lines firewall forward. I think there is a lot of heat soak with the mechanical fuel pump as it is bathed with 200 degree oil. Fuel flow rates through it are too low to maintain a cool fuel flow. Note that there is difference between vapor pressure and boiling point. The combination of the two for ethanol might be the issue.

Never so much as a hiccup from the engine in 400 hours before that. Won't try anything with alcohol in it again without a lot of research and work!
 
Sorry, I love AVGAS

Yesterday, my wife asked me if we could go dirtbike riding with our daughter, who had also expressed interest. I said,"OK, but I hope the three bikes will all start" The wife said, "Of course they will, they always start". I pointed out that they had not run since 2004 when we moved up into the hinterland and glancing at the logbooks, it was true. (I know, only a very sick man will keep logbooks on a motorcycle)

Anyway, I pulled the bikes out of the basement cold storage room and rolled them outside. I checked the tanks for AVGAS quantities and checked the oil and BOOM! The KTM fired right up on the second push. The XR250 was a bit reluctant but two minutes later was burbling happily. The XR200 (1986 model) fired on the third kick. All these engines have been running on AVGAS since I have owned them. All were stored with AVGAS in the tanks and carbs. I will bet that none of them would have started with car gas in the tanks after such a long storage period.

I am sorry guys, AVGAS RULES. We need to keep it!

Cheers, Pete
 
Avgas

Mustang said:
... I will bet that none of them would have started with car gas in the tanks after such a long storage period. ...
I'll bet they would have! I started my Harley after it was sitting in a *cold* underground garage for 3 years - it fired right up. I didn't even have to recharge the battery. I remember finding an abandoned CZ motocross bike in the middle of a field. It was out in the open. Me and a couple of other guys push started it in about 30 seconds (none of us weighed enough to kick start it). I didn't even have to clean out the points. We rode it for a while and left it there. It was probably still sitting there until they built the Lowe's or Home Depot or Wal-mart. Mogas rules. :)
 
RV7ator said:
Sneering condescension doesn't favorably impress me, Steve. Re-read my post but think GM. Business must price on costs or they're dead. Your essay and my statement agree as far as economics are concerned. You've taken a long way around the barn to say the price of gas is manipulted and there's no competition. Congress keeps trying to make the same connection every time constituents squeal; subpeona those oil execs! Nothing ever comes of it because XOM/CVX/COP and the rest do indeed compete with each other for your gas dollar. There's no price collusion, and they don't set a price then add costs to assure profit. Though I'm paying 1,000% more for gas now than in the '50s, the share dividends have remained more or less the same (small) percentage. "The oil companies price on cost, not profit."
Ok, John, my appologies for the condescension expressed in my previous post. I was extremely shocked to hear someone touting the fact that there is too much competition in the oil market today. I strongly disagree on that point. My comments on competition are not expressed in terms of an oil company competing against another for consumer dollars. No, in this discussion of alternative fuel and Ethanol I am talking about competition for the use of petroleum products in general. Ethanol is becoming, and I think will continue to become, a strong competitor for petroleum in the eyes of consumers (Finally). There may be other fuels as well, but today the world has started down the road of using Ethanol as the means to wean itself away from reliance on petroleum.

I strongly believe that competition will always benefit the consumer. Look at your own choices in deciding which airplane to build. Do you think your abilities to build the airplane of your dreams would be a realistic possibility if it were not for the competition amongs kit manufacturers, engine manufacturers, avionics, instruments, etc., etc. Take your pick on various components of your project and tell me that competing manufacturers are not good for you, the consumer, in finding what you want at a reasonable price?

Ok, so maybe I would argue with myself somewhat on the idea that these components are reasonably priced. However, that also addresses the issue of price not being set by cost. Why can Garmin sell a GPS for the auto market for at least half the price they are selling an aviation GPS? The price we pay is not based solely on the cost to manufacture that product. It is based on the demand of that product by the consumer market. There is a much larger consumer pool in the auto market than in the aviation market. So, they will set their price at a mark that will insure they cover their costs and then make XX% profit on each unit in the auto market. They also know that the market is much smaller and demand much greater in the aviation market for their product so they will set that price at a different mark than the auto market because they know the demand will support that price. It has very little to do with the cost to produce it. In fact, if you were able to look at their books, you would most likely see that the XX% profit on each unit for the auto market is not going to be the same XX% profit on each unit for the aviation market. Why is there a difference? Because the price of their product is being driven by the demand. Simply put, it is that way because they can price it such. Price here is set by demand, not cost.

No condescending statements here this time but I absolutely must disagree with your statement that "The oil companies price on cost, not profit." Granted they must cover their costs, so that is an ongoing battle. They must maintain the price of oil at a level above what they have to expend to extract it from the ground but if the price of a barrell of oil were solely built around that cost, oil would not be $60.00 or greater a barrell today. It would be much less. The added price consumers pay is built on demand (or in the case of oil, the expected future demand) for their product . OPEC would not be in such a colusion if this were not so. Daily, that world collaberation of petroleum producers tries to manipulate the oil market in order to maintain their profit. Demand for their product is what allows them to do that. Not the cost to extract the oil.

To talk about share dividends in terms of product pricing has little relevance. It only servers to confuse the issue. Your share dividends may indeed be set by the board of directors of the company based on costs to produce. That is very different than setting the sales price of a product in the market.

So, John. My appologies for the insensitive condescending manner in which I disagreed with your statements earlier but I do disagree with them none the less. Peace be with you and yours, may the force be with you, live long and prosper, and above all, keep building that airplane. I also have an airplane to build and will go back to doing so. Hopefully we can meet at some flyin sometime in our respective beauties. When that happens I will gladly shake your hand and say glad to know you. :)

RVBYSDI
Steve
RV9A slow build
Darn, I hate deburring all those holes!
 
RV7ator said:
There's no price collusion, and they don't set a price then add costs to assure profit. Though I'm paying 1,000% more for gas now than in the '50s, the share dividends have remained more or less the same (small) percentage.

OK, I'm gonna show my fiscal ignorance (AND go waaay off-topic) and ask a stupid question - anyone can answer, it's not directed at a specific member:

If the oil companies are NOT raping us on gas prices, then how is it that their quarterly profits went through the roof after Katrina/Rita?


With all the damage done to their refining/production infrastructure, I would think that profits would be DOWN due to having to pay megabucks for new oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico, and repairing refineries along the Gulf coast...
 
Voodoo

A lot of it is in the way the accountants post the $$$$$, believe me, my wife is a mba/accountant, and the things she can make numbers say is just amazing.

You might also want to read a book called "how to lie with statistics", by Darrell Huff, if you can find it.

Bottom line is dont take anything in the econ. world at face value.

Mike
 
I follow the oil industry closely. The truth is that the supply line from the ground to pump is long and everyone along the way takes a "fair" cut- there is no big oil company monopoly, just a number of smaller businesses. We have to pay for exploration, construction of wells and distribution networks, transportation and refining, transportation and storage, and transportation to sales outlets. There is a lot more involved than the neighborhood gas station pumps we all use and hate.

The biggest portion goes to the government in various taxes and environmental overhead. The huge reported profits are a result of a large growing volume sold, not through a big markup- just about every other commodity is marked up much more than gasoline on a unit basis.

The US still pays about half of what the rest of the world charges per gallon, except in a few far eastern oil rich countries that practically give it away. I believe we are just seeing the tip of the iceburg here. The world's oil production resources have topped out and are now slowly dropping. The current major sources are overproducing their oil fields- Mexico and Saudi Arabia come to mind, which hurts future production rates to meet todays sales demand. Political control/disruption in Venezuela, Iraq, and Russia have reduced their output and damaged their industrial infrastructure.

Demand is steadily growing due to huge new developing markets in China and India. Very few new fields, big enough to make any difference, are being found. This last year we entered a new paradigm, where China sopped up all of the marginal supply overages, where any small disruption, for whatever reason (political or weather related) force large price swings. New more expensive alternative sources are under development- things like Canadian oil sands, wind power, etc are being pushed by higher energy prices. The only future scenarios that will help much (IMHO) will be a change to nuclear electrical power generation and possibly fuel cell technology, which should relieve some of the supply pressure on fossil fuels.

I beleive we will see rising prices for energy supplies into the future until prices get so high that it forces a reduction in demand, more pressure in developing new energy resources, and widespread conservation.
 
Mike S said:
A lot of it is in the way the accountants post the $$$$$, believe me, my wife is a mba/accountant, and the things she can make numbers say is just amazing.

You might also want to read a book called "how to lie with statistics", by Darrell Huff, if you can find it.

Bottom line is dont take anything in the econ. world at face value.

Mike
I am not too sure this answers Ken's question about profit taking after Katrina/Rita. I don't disagree with your ideas that accountant number posting can be manipulated at all. but if the oil companies wanted to "lie with statistics" I would expect them to use numbers to show they did not have an excess profit after Katrina/Rita. If they did that they would be more apt to garner the support of the general public and be able to increase their prices more effectively.

IMHO I believe there was profit taking that occurred not because of some underlying attempt at deception as much as it was based on the fact that these storms did not do as much damage to the infrastructure as experts thought. The oil comodities market, if based on nothing else, has its roots in fear of the unknown. The futures market was driven up by fear of a disruption of the supply chain. This fed the spike in oil prices (fuel prices at the pump) immediately after the hurricanes. But, if the infrastructure was still working (if even only partially) the oil and fuel production and the movement of petroleum products continued. Given that the prices were now spiking, the companies were able to reap higher profits because they were now selling their product at a higher price and they were continuing to deliver their product almost as effectively after the storms as they were before.

Just my .02 on the subject,
RVBYSDI
Steve
 
How to Lie

How to Lie with Statistics should be required reading for all listers. It should be followed by The Law and The Profits. both excellent.

100LL=$4.29 at KSAV yesterday.
 
Voodoo 2

Steve, I am not saying that is what happened, I am just saying that they can present things---------legaly no less------to show pretty much whatever they want. IMHO, the news media generated and perpetuated fears about loss of production in the gulf, coupled with WILD futures speculation caused the most harm....

If my memory is correct the net profit on a gal of gas is something like 1 or 2 cents for most oil companys. The "huge profits" actually come from the volume of sales.

Mike
 
Mike S said:
Steve, I am not saying that is what happened, I am just saying that they can present things---------legaly no less------to show pretty much whatever they want. IMHO, the news media generated and perpetuated fears about loss of production in the gulf, coupled with WILD futures speculation caused the most harm....

If my memory is correct the net profit on a gal of gas is something like 1 or 2 cents for most oil companys. The "huge profits" actually come from the volume of sales.

Mike

that is at the 'retail' transaction. Not crude to refining, refining to wholesale. You speak of what the gas station 'makes' only.

John
 
Thanks for the replies, folks.

I shoulda known there was no simple answer to my question, and I did read everyone's responses. But all it did was aggravate me more, when I realized (again...) that the fears of a small group of people determine how much of my hard-earned money I (and the rest of us) have to spend on the things I/we need. I'll just have to grin & bear it, I suppose. Not like I have much choice in the matter...


Well, that's enough thread hijacking for me. I'm done with this one!