W

wrongway john

Well Known Member
Besides me. Seen today where crude prices are over $87 a barrel, and the sky still seems to be the limit. Some years back, a wise aviator told me not to be concerned about aviation fuel, it will be the least expense of your airplane budget. After I thought about that a bit, I figured he was right. Today, that old adage might not still hold up. Maybe it depends on how many hours one flies each month.

Will the prices now or perhaps in the future slow any of you down or will you keep flying about the same amount of hours?

wj
 
not encouraging

really makes one think twice before heading out for frivolous activities. . . which most of my flying is. my boss has a mooney, and he indicated he needs a pretty good reason to go out as well. haven't ordered a diesel moped yet, but not looking forward to refueling the truck any time soon.
 
A few months back I realized that I was filling up my truck once a week because I was driving to the airport almost every day....decided to deal with that by picking up a used motorcycle (hadn't really ridden in 20 years - kind of fun again!) and have since only been gassing the truck once a month.

Avgas savings? Well, I find that all the traveling I have been doing is still more efficient from a scheduling and convenience standpoint than flying on the airlines. Cost is about a break-even.

Ya gotta spend your money on something - might as well be fuel!

Paul
 
Its not just Crude Oil

It?s not so much the price of crude oil that concerns me, as much as the ignorance margin that the big oil companies add to the mix. Even if the price for crude oil went to $100 a barrel, the real price for regular gasoline should only be around $3.23 a gallon. Right now we?re paying an ignorance margin in this country that I have seen vary between 35? a gallon and 95? a gallon lately. If it looks like Congress is getting upset and may investigate then the margin retreats. If all is quiet on Capitol Hill, than this margin goes up.

I call it an ignorance margin because the refiners that profit in this country are throwing it in with hopes that you?ll believe it is the cost of crude oil. Most people do not even know how many gallons are in a barrel of oil, so there is no way they can do the math. Big oil is so scared of a true investigation that they had their good friend Senator Stevens from Alaska hold a kangaroo court investigation just before the republicans lost power. Although all the big CEOs were called in before the TV cameras, Stevens used all his power to control the questioning and the agenda to prevent true - hardcore investigation.

A true investigation is only possible now if many citizens get organized and began communicating with their Congress. If you think corporate mainstream media will investigate and look into this for you, think again. I will never forget turning on CNN one day only to see this ditzy talking head trying to convince us like a high school cheerleader that it?s a great thing for the consumer Exxon and Mobil are merging. As an unconcerned and complacent citizenship, we have allowed big oil and others to run us over like a Mack truck. They have seen how easy this was and are considering turning around to check our bodies wallets and jewelry.
 
"Ya gotta spend your money on something - might as well be fuel!"


Paul I like your attitude!!!

To paraphrase the old saying...you can't take it with you... so just smile and have a great time spending it while you are here!!:D


Jim Kinsey
7A Fuselage almost tipped
 
Fellas, I'm not even going to tell you how much fuel is here in the UK, and mainland europe is not much cheaper - you'd die!

If anything is going to get to us, its not going to be the cost of fuel (as someone has already said, you've gotta spend your money on something), it will be the eco movement, it's really gathering pace here in the UK and I think that day they will look at us jollying around the sky and say, "lets get those GA guys now"!


Shiney
 
THERE'S MORE TO IT THAN THE PRICE OF OIL

Someday the younger members of this group will look back and wonder what happened to the "good old days". I've been around long enough to look back and think it already. We are very, very fortunate to be doing what we do and I can not but wonder how long it will last. Everything from CO2 content in the atmosphere to politics to religion to the price of oil seem to be spinning out of control on a global level. In a very complex scenario driven foreign policy, politics, religion, those who have, those who have not, and basic demographics, the price of oil is just a part of it.

I'm not a doomsday proponent by an measure but this book - "American Alone" The End of the World as We Know It - is as thought provoking as an on line course I am taking on "Earth's Changing Climate" by Prof. Richard Wolfson, Middlebury College. There are days when it would be better to shut down any outside reading and enjoy flying to the end and to heck with the rest of the world, there is such a huge vacuum of leadership on the planet. What is going on can not last. The ice is melting fast and the natives everywhere are very restless .

Shiney in the UK knows of what I speak. We are in deep do-do whether we acknowledge it or not.

I wish MT would return my prop - I need to go fly.
 
Gosh, I don't know how to address this thread. Either way, we are headed for a world war again, god forbid, but I can't help thinking that is the case.
 
I just gassed up at a Walmart in my hometown for $2.59 a gallon. This is with $87 a barrel prices on the world market. With one barrel (42 gallons) yielding about 20 gallons of refined gasoline, I?m surprised it isn?t more. About four months ago, when I think a barrel was in the sixties, I filled up at just a little over $3.00 a gallon. Go figure....

I understand some of the problem is refineries, and groups not wanting any more, at least not in their area. And of course the instability of the Middle East. But sure, there is plenty of politics going on here, with most of it dirty.

I for one will be happy if it just stops at $100 a barrel, so that I can at least catch my breath. Then, just maybe I will be able to enjoy a small amount of air time each month without it putting me in the poor house.

I?m glad I never sold my 84 Honda CRX. This neat little two-seater car has given me as much as 69.4 mpg on the highway, and as much as 63 in the city when I baby it. This isn?t a hybrid, and actually can give them a run for their money without having to replace all of those batteries at 100,000 mile intervals. 237,000 miles later, I?m still not trading it in. The latest 2008 Civics dropped once again for their gas mileage figures to 36 mpg on the highway.

wj
 
Oil will continue to go up in the short term, but I'm not worried about it, it will just encourage new technologies, and I'm not talking about ethanol...while it does reduces oil demand, it's not good long term.
I'm surprised we're not seeing more natural gas, it's a simple modification on your car. It's cheap and burns clean. I still think that long term we need to look at something else, I'm just not sure what. Hydrogen looks promising and several car manufacturers have started to invest seriously in that area. Whatever new technology we move to, the big problem I see is delivery of that product, but whomever solves that will make some serious $$$.
 
I'm in the "use less on the road more in the plane" crowd.

Oh, and hedge it with plenty of energy stocks. I started buying energy in Jan. 04 and have made way more on these than I have spent on energy.

Buy some HAL or XOM and take some of their insane profits for yourself.
 
I have a question, and I don't want this to turn into a flame-war on Auto Gas, but if you have a low compression Lycoming (less than 9:1, for example) why wouldn't you use it instead? I know about the risks of vapor lock, so I plan on avoiding fuel with Ethanol in it (simple testers out there for this).

An alternative would be to dilute your fuel mixture with auto-gas, like 50/50 so your valves get the lead benefit, but at a reduced cost. There are also lead addatives for this.

I don't think in most cases that it's a matter of Octane rating, but that of needing lead for the non-hardened valve seats. I plan on using Mogas with my engine, but will follow the break-in procedures and use ONLY Avgas during that period. After that, I will run Avgas only as needed/required for the valve seats.
 
How about the ignorance margin of the tax..?

The gov't. will also tack on as much tax as they think we will be willing to pay. At least the oil companies are giving you something for your money....

Flyrod said:
It?s not so much the price of crude oil that concerns me, as much as the ignorance margin that the big oil companies add to the mix. Even if the price for crude oil went to $100 a barrel, the real price for regular gasoline should only be around $3.23 a gallon. Right now we?re paying an ignorance margin in this country that I have seen vary between 35? a gallon and 95? a gallon lately. If it looks like Congress is getting upset and may investigate then the margin retreats. If all is quiet on Capitol Hill, than this margin goes up.

I call it an ignorance margin because the refiners that profit in this country are throwing it in with hopes that you?ll believe it is the cost of crude oil. Most people do not even know how many gallons are in a barrel of oil, so there is no way they can do the math. Big oil is so scared of a true investigation that they had their good friend Senator Stevens from Alaska hold a kangaroo court investigation just before the republicans lost power. Although all the big CEOs were called in before the TV cameras, Stevens used all his power to control the questioning and the agenda to prevent true - hardcore investigation.

A true investigation is only possible now if many citizens get organized and began communicating with their Congress. If you think corporate mainstream media will investigate and look into this for you, think again. I will never forget turning on CNN one day only to see this ditzy talking head trying to convince us like a high school cheerleader that it?s a great thing for the consumer Exxon and Mobil are merging. As an unconcerned and complacent citizenship, we have allowed big oil and others to run us over like a Mack truck. They have seen how easy this was and are considering turning around to check our bodies wallets and jewelry.
Click to expand...
 
Exactly!

briand said:
I'm in the "use less on the road more in the plane" crowd.

Oh, and hedge it with plenty of energy stocks. I started buying energy in Jan. 04 and have made way more on these than I have spent on energy.

Buy some HAL or XOM and take some of their insane profits for yourself.
Click to expand...

Between a couple of energy stocks and shorting the housing market, I made enough to fly for a couple of years.

John Clark
RV8 N18U "Sunshine"
KSBA
 
I sure have concerns about the people in the northeast where oil is the dominant method of heating homes in the winter.

I know people sayt hey're concerned; but I also notice people screaming past me on the drive home every night; so they're not THAT concerned.

We can bring the price of oil down tomorrow if we put our minds to it. We just don't want to sacrifice in this country anymore... for anything.

THAT concerns me much more than anything else. We blame everyone but ourselves.
 
I'd be worried about the cost for heating and powering industry in the short term but high prices will spur inovation and new technology.

I still think however that the price of gas will have to rise significantly higher (10x) to make it's use for personal transport of any kind unattractive.

MoGas in the UK and europe is 3 or 4 times the price in the USA, cars are taxed up the wazu, automatic speed cameras spew fines in the mail and tax dollars are poured into public transport - but the roads are still packed and you can't find a parking space! Humans really value the freedom that personal transport affords and are prepared to sacrifice other things for it.

As for inovation, who noticed the electric Sonex at OSH? It is the very tip of the iceberg.

I wouldn't worry about the price of crude in the long run.
 
PBS did a great show on alternative fuels some years back; there was no magic bullet, and it was going to take many different sources from solar/wind, nuclear, hydro, etc, to help cut into our petro dependence. Ethanol used more energy to extract it out of wheat, corn, etc, than what was produced. It?s practical in Brazil since they use sugar, and get a much larger yield per bushel of that compared to only about 2.7 gallons of ethanol from a bushel of corn. Technology often takes so long to catch up, and thus far, all of the other alternative energy sources are still more costly than the petrol itself, and it takes government subsidies to keep them afloat. Petro based fuels and engines has also had over a hundred year head start. My own guess is that it will take many, many decades before anything looks promising to curb our huge appetite of petro.

I have a question, and I don't want this to turn into a flame-war on Auto Gas, but if you have a low compression Lycoming (less than 9:1, for example) why wouldn't you use it instead? I know about the risks of vapor lock, so I plan on avoiding fuel with Ethanol in it (simple testers out there for this).
Click to expand...

I think quite a few go with a 7:1 compression ratio for auto fuel, some a bit more. For my hopefully, soon to build future RV-7 project, I?m leaning towards auto gas myself. It should save me $1-$2.00 a gallon sipping ever so slightly more fuel, and I think with the 150 HP engine, I?d also lose about 6 mph over the 160 HP version. I can live with that. One other concern with auto gas that I read on another thread, is that this type of gas loses several points of its octane rating if not used in 30 days. Don?t know if there is any truth in this or not, and if this would be true with regular aviation fuel as well. If this is the case, I suppose one could have some little plastic cans of octane booster for those long stretches where the plane has been idle.

We can bring the price of oil down tomorrow if we put our minds to it. We just don't want to sacrifice in this country anymore... for anything.

THAT concerns me much more than anything else. We blame everyone but ourselves.
Click to expand...

I agree. With our cars, if everybody just slowed down with their acceleration, and lowered their top speed a bit, and if many would get on the same page with this, we could easily cut 20% of the petro use overnight. But no, that?s just too simple. We Americans are gluttons for the most part, and it?s just not cool for many to be concerned about this. I don?t understand why everybody is in such a big hurry. I often pull my CRX off to the side to let them by, because just driving the speed limit isn?t fast enough for most people.

wj
 
Hedging higher energy cost through stocks works best for the people who need it least. The more you invest in those stock, the more money you have and thus the more you can afford higher price versus a low income family who isn't likely to have any savings.

I lived in Europe, the high cost of gas didn't get people to slow down, but they did buy more efficient cars. European drive those small cars because they want to save on gas. We used to own a Range Rover. If you let the tank get close to empty, it would cost about 800 French Francs at the time to fill up, which at the time was $130 to fill up the tank and that was over 10 years ago! We still went and took leisure drive on Sundays, yet just drive to drive. We also had another car to get around and drove it most of the time.

People only equate their saving at the pumps with current price, we don't aknowledge that if we all use less, price should drop (if other country demand doesn't rise while supply doesn't decrease, and that's a HUGE if).

I still think the price at the pump needs to go above $5 before we start to really feel the effect. Let's say that you're burning 500 gallons a year through your car. If price goes to $4.5 at the pump, we'll complain but it's only $750 more a year. For most people that can be absorbed, it's the low income family that will be hurt. Start going higher, and you'll start hitting more people and that's where you'll start to have issues. Of course, this will play havoc with many other prices because value for almost all goods get added by something whose cost is in part related to energy cost which makes people feel more squeezed.

Don't get me wrong, I'd much rather keep that money in my pocket, but the bottom line is that it's not the end of the world as we like to make it out to be. The sad part is that oil at 88 is still cheap, most say it will go to $100, I wouldn't be surprised to see it go higher, specially is our feds cut again and others don't.
 
I know it's a paradox but in a way high oil prices are a good thing. I thinnk this because here in the UK (and in europe) it has started to concentrate minds on alternative fuels and this is gathering huge momentum.

The governments of the west now recognise the importance of moving away from oil as their main source of engery, for no other reason than it is no longer (was it ever?) a secure source. At last there are political demands (and thefore market demands) for alternative fuel sources so the commercial companies will get their act together and pour R&D money in bucket loads and the results will come.

In the short to medium term oil prices will remain high, but once those oil producing nations realise that their customers have gone elsewhere market forces will dictate that oil prices will have to at least match alternative energy sources.

I predict that within the next fifteen years in Europe more than 70% of cars will be running on hybrid and alternative energy sources! And now in the UK even the "ecos" think the buildign of new nuclear power stations is at least worth debating! I don't really think that the west will allow this (oil) gun to be held to its head for much longer!

Just my take on things. now I'm going to get back to building my seats!:)


Martin
 
I too think that higher oil prices are good.

Yes, it will slow down the economy and hurt many folks. But if we keep burning up fossil fuels at a high rate and tossing that CO2 into the air, we'll eventually have far more problems than high gas prices.

By raising the price of oil/gas it makes it economically attractive to develop cleaner energy sources.
 
Actions don't follow words in England...

shiney said:
I know it's a paradox but in a way high oil prices are a good thing. I thinnk this because here in the UK (and in europe) it has started to concentrate minds on alternative fuels and this is gathering huge momentum.

The governments of the west now recognise the importance of moving away from oil as their main source of engery, for no other reason than it is no longer (was it ever?) a secure source. At last there are political demands (and thefore market demands) for alternative fuel sources so the commercial companies will get their act together and pour R&D money in bucket loads and the results will come.

In the short to medium term oil prices will remain high, but once those oil producing nations realise that their customers have gone elsewhere market forces will dictate that oil prices will have to at least match alternative energy sources.

I predict that within the next fifteen years in Europe more than 70% of cars will be running on hybrid and alternative energy sources! And now in the UK even the "ecos" think the buildign of new nuclear power stations is at least worth debating! I don't really think that the west will allow this (oil) gun to be held to its head for much longer!

Just my take on things. now I'm going to get back to building my seats!:)


Martin
Click to expand...

Martin... that's not my observation from two trips to Liverpool to see family that were 3 years apart.

It was very obvious to me that over that short period the sales of larger vehicles (would be called SUVs and minivans in the US - not sure of the English term - "people carriers"?) had grown drastically.

This is in spite of the size of the roads, and the extra width of these larger vehicles... even my vegetarian, peace-loving, US-hating niece, with one small kid, liked the Nissan 4x4 her ex bought "because it's easier to put the baby stuff in the back". Residential areas where I was born are even more crowded with these SUVs/minivans - even with the local habit of parking half on the street and half on the sidewalk (pavement in English terminology) - driving down the street was a slow process, with the extra parked vehicles making passage almost one-way.

This was noticeable even over the short span of 3 years. The governments may have noticed it, but the people haven't...

I heard lots of "green" talk in England, but the new traffic on the road showed it was not being followed by the car buying public...:)

Heck - while I was there, even the terrorists at Glasgow airport used a Jeep Cherokee...:eek:

gil A
 
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The Price of crude oil has no effect on my flying

I do not do any frivolous flying and when I fly there is a purpose. I am never just sitting around watching TV and say "I'm bored - I think I'll go out and do some pattern work or air work."

In my working life I worked in intimate closeness with briliant scientists and they are often wrong. Some of the "cures" can create greater problems than we can imagine when listening to the flowery well structured proposals. For example using a food source to produce fuel has some basic flaws.

Bob Axsom
 
Maybe I'm an aviation exception, but I sold my 2004 Mooney Ovation and downsized to the more efficient RV6 mainly due to the cost of avgas, which went from $2.10 at purchase to $4.80. It got to the point where even short trips weren't cost effective, especially when factoring in insurance, $100 per hour repairs (Mooney Service Center rates) and depreciation. The gas alone was costing more than a commercial flight.
The RV6 is a plane I feel that I can maintain even after I retire, years down the road. Another benefit is that it is fun to just go out and bore holes in the sky again, or take people for joyrides.
 
Yes Gil, you're right about the SUV's, but that was (is) a fad. Things are changing here and people running around in four x fours to the school run are considered lepers, in time they will disappear. The only ones who haven't quite got it are the footballers wives and what can we expect from that lot anyway?! It will take time but believe me, there is an unstoppable momentum now gathering here now and like I said, it will concentrate minds.

Of course the British are a car buying public and I'm not saying that people will stop buying cars, what I am saying is that in the future those cars will run on alternative fuels. Now congestion and parking is another matter but the car in Britain is here to stay, of that I have no doubt.

Next time you are here in the UK, come across (70 miles) to visit me in York, we still have parking problems and congestion problems but on a much more manageable rate, it's much less crowded here than west of England.

And as for those Glasgow bombers, good job it was a Jeep otherwise they might have succeeded :)

Martin
 
York

shiney said:
....

Next time you are here in the UK, come across (70 miles) to visit me in York, we still have parking problems and congestion problems but on a much more manageable rate, it's much less crowded here than west of England.
.....
Martin
Click to expand...

Missed you this time... we always go to York... my cousin runs the Hazelwood B&B there.

What was funny this time was the fact that the train ticket from Liverpool to York was more than the airfare from Liverpool to Basel (Basle?), Switzerland on EasyJet....:)

Europe still is using market pricing for energy usage....:)

gil A
 
It might take longer but I think it would be even cheaper if you took the flight to Basel, then the train to Rotterdam, ferry from there to Hull and taxi from Hull to York than the train fare from Liverpool to York! Some things are a bit behind market forces at the moment but I'm working on it! :)

Next time give me a call.

Martin
 
I think the overall problem isn't that Americans are this or that; it's just that we like to blame everyone else for our problems, so we ignore what we -- as individuals -- can contribute to the solutions.

No matter what kind of vehicle you drive...little putter to big SUV, you can still use less gas this month than last and if you're a believer in any form in the law of supply and demand, the price will come down.

Heck, I learn a lot from flying by getting all that weight out of my trunk I don't need.

I was watching The War a few weeks ago. I enjoyed it very much but couldn't help but think, we'd never be able to sacrifice like my parents' generation again. And I think one reason they did, is because they got used to doing so during the Depression.

Anyway, I always kinda mutter to myself when cars go whizzing by (which means I'm muttering all the time) because I just KNOW the people in those cars have kvetched about the high price of gasoline.

I honestly don't know, given our need for oil and a foreign policy that is built around that need, why doing what one can to use less of it is never seen as a moral imperative, but gets stuck instead, in some political b.s. discussion.

It'd be cool if one day we could wake up and say to the oil producing despots, "keep it. We don't need it anymore."
 
The problem isn't lack of energy. There will not be any lack of energy now, or in the future. Nuclear power will gradually phase out fossil fuels, there simply is no other way to produce enough energy and decrease CO2 emissions.

The problem is the transport sector, shipping and aviation mainly. Today there is no viable alternative for liquid fossil fuel. To use food stuff to produce fuel when millions of kids perish each year due to starving is just plain wrong. I mean, "sorry kids, you cannot have those fishes, I need the oil in them for my green biodiesel SUV, so I can save the planet for the next generation".

I think the price of liquid fossil fuel will just continue to increase because there are no alternative, and we will pay whatever it cost because there are no real substitute for the car. Sure, we can use smaller cars, more fuel efficient cars, but that doesn't effect the price of fossil fuel, because the demand is still there for shipping, aviation and land transport. I have read that much more fossil fuel is used in producing a car than the car will ever use by driving it. So by purchasing a new fuel efficient car when your old car still is OK actually will increase the demand of fossil fuel.

So, it is much better to just let the car rust away and fly a hand made homebuilt RV :) No fossil fuel in that production, only some very modest amounts of watered out bio-ethanol from time to time :)
 
Peak Oil

Do a Google for "peak oil".

IMHO, if we are not there, we will be soon.

I purchased a 9-year old VW TDI in May. It now has over 230,000 miles on it. I get over 50 mpg on the highway and 44 running around to and from work. (11-mile drive.) My 2003 GMC Sonoma gets 21 MPG. The diesel is more expensive per gallon but I am spending about 1/3 on fuel for driving as I was and am driving more. I also enjoy driving the VW TDI 5-speed as much as I do flying my RV.

On the rear bumper, I have a bumper sticker shaped like a large AA battery. Inside says: "50 MPG. Batteries Not Required".

Back in 1994 / 1995, I was in Japan paying $5.40 per gallon of gas. I was purchasing gas by the liter and paying in Yen but the conversion to gallons and dollars was $5.40.

On my trip to AirVenture 2007, I asked myself would I still be flying to AirVenture if I was paying $10 per gallon of AvGAS? My answer was YES. At that price, I will more than likely still fly but I will not fly as much.
 
Peak oil...

RV6_flyer said:
Do a Google for "peak oil".

IMHO, if we are not there, we will be soon.

........
Click to expand...

Gary.... a search in Google for "peak oil scam" gets 209,000 hits.....:)

Technology changes, and quite rapidly sometimes....

I like this quote....

January 19, 1922 - U.S. Geological Survey predicts that the United States oil supply will last only 20 years.

http://www.energy.ca.gov/m+pco/history.html

As the price goes up, it's more economical to extract that "difficult" oil...

Yes the price will go up with good old supply and demand (if the govts. don't screw that up too much...) but then more extractable oil can get "discovered"....:)

gil in Tucson

PS I also remember the peak oil prediction was going to happen in the 70's along with global cooling....:)
 
SvingenB said:
The problem isn't lack of energy. There will not be any lack of energy now, or in the future. Nuclear power will gradually phase out fossil fuels, there simply is no other way to produce enough energy and decrease CO2 emissions.
Click to expand...

The sun delivers an average of 240 watts of power per square meter over the planet. Perhaps some day we will learn how to harness this engergy. That is our hope for the future.
 
Who is the problem?

If we are looking for someone to blame, let's list them in order from least responsible to most responsible.

1) Big Oil / Exxon Mobil small contributor - ExxonMobil, I believe, either the largest or one of the largest oil public companies in the world. What percent of the worlds daily production of arould 76 million bbls do they produce? About 2 million bbls. Not much is it. How do you control world oil prices with about 3%. It makes me sick when congress and others march out big oil and try to make them the problem. They do that for political gain because it is an emotional issue, not becuase they are the problem

2) OPEC/Middle East - If you want to blame producers, this is where that blame is more appropriate, not US oil companies. Saudi ~10 million BBLs/day, Iran, etc. or all told OPEC controls about 40% of the worlds daily production. Prices have been rising and don't think it has gone unnoticed by OPEC that it really has not hurt the world economy at this point.

3) Washington - enough said!

4) Demand - China, India, and more importantly us. Demand is what is driving prices up forcing tight supplies.


As a side note, for every gallon of gas you burn in you car you are putting about 19 pounds of CO2 into the air or about 300 pounds every time you fill up.

Dave Syvertson
B.S. Petroleum Engineering
B.S. Geology
 
Explain Please.....

dsyvert said:
As a side note, for every gallon of gas you burn in you car you are putting about 19 pounds of CO2 into the air or about 300 pounds every time you fill up.
Click to expand...

I must admit that I am an Aero Engineer, and had only one college course in Chemistry....but if a gallon of oil weighs 6.5 gallons, how do I get 1 pounds of CO2 out of burning it? Seems to violate some kind of conservation law.....there is probably some point I am missing...:confused:

Paul
 
dsyvert said:
If we are looking for someone to blame, let's list them in order from least responsible to most responsible.

1) Big Oil / Exxon Mobil small contributor - ExxonMobil, I believe, either the largest or one of the largest oil public companies in the world. What percent of the worlds daily production of arould 76 million bbls do they produce? About 2 million bbls. Not much is it. How do you control world oil prices with about 3%. It makes me sick when congress and others march out big oil and try to make them the problem. They do that for political gain because it is an emotional issue, not becuase they are the problem

2) OPEC/Middle East - If you want to blame producers, this is where that blame is more appropriate, not US oil companies. Saudi ~10 million BBLs/day, Iran, etc. or all told OPEC controls about 40% of the worlds daily production. Prices have been rising and don't think it has gone unnoticed by OPEC that it really has not hurt the world economy at this point.

3) Washington - enough said!

4) Demand - China, India, and more importantly us. Demand is what is driving prices up forcing tight supplies.


As a side note, for every gallon of gas you burn in you car you are putting about 19 pounds of CO2 into the air or about 300 pounds every time you fill up.

Dave Syvertson
B.S. Petroleum Engineering
B.S. Geology
Click to expand...

US per capita energy consumption is the highest in the world.

By comparison, Australia and Saudi Arabia are at about 75%, Switzerland, Japan, South Korea and Russia, about 50%, Egypt about 10%, the Congo about 2% - all per capita.

We are the fat cats on the planet, living like fat cats. We drive gas guzzlers, keep the lights on bright, and have not begun thinking about energy conservation. One political party says there is no problem, the other preaches green but the preachers themselves live privately as opulently as anyone.

If the price of auto fuel hit $10 (av gas $20) we may start thinking about conservation but even at that level, many affluent people would still drive the big SUV's 80 mph. All it takes is money, and some have plenty of it.
 
CO2 from gasoline

Paul,

This is not going to be exact and I'm going to take some liberties, but... most HC chains are 2 parts H (atomic weight 1) and one part carbon (atomic weight 12). Assuming most of the 6.5 pounds/gallon is the carbon or about 85% of the total or about 5.5 pounds of carbon/gallon of gasoline. Now C02 has an atomic weight of 44 (Carbon 12 and 2 x 16 oxygen). Dividing 44 by 12 times 5.5 pounds you get ~20 pounds of CO2 per gallon of gasoline.

Hope my math is right.

Dave Syvertson
 
Since methane is far worse than co2 (as a greenhouse gas), my new years resolution is to eat fewer beans in 08'.:D
 
dsyvert said:
Paul,
Dividing 44 by 12 times 5.5 pounds you get ~20 pounds of CO2 per gallon of gasoline.
Hope my math is right.
Dave Syvertson
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I ask you this: If co2 comes out of my tailpipe way up in the sky and no one is there to see it, does it really ever come out at all?:D

I have heard what you say before and do not understand it I would go with the 5.5# of co2/gal and call it a day but I'm no scientist.
 
Oil, the economy and economics...

I read somewhere that the price of oil has historically correlated pretty closely with economic growth, so I suspect that the high oil prices are not going to be the cause of economic collapse. If it happens, the reasons will be elsewhere.

One thing that always amuses me and is the reason why people aren't downsizing in droves to smaller fuel efficient vehicles is that the capital cost of owning, depreciation and the non-fuel running costs of any vehicle usually far outweigh the costs of fuelling the vehicle. I guess it may also apply to aircraft.

My brother, who, despite working in the oil and gas industry in Melbourne, is the biggest greenie at heart but reached the conclusion that his 5.0L V8 Falcon as a family car was not going to be traded for a smaller, more fuel-efficient four-cylinder because he couldn't justify in his mind the enormous capital cost required to swap, when compared to the potential fuel savings.

This is also one of the biggest hurdles to introducing more fuel efficient technologies into the market place. The additional costs to the consumer are not reflected in running cost savings.

I guess it's like the fixed-pitch/CS propellor argument. Sure, you get an appreciable improvement in efficiency with a CS, but the extra cost will outweigh the savings for most operators. You have to want it for other reasons (i.e. take-off performance and climb rate) to justify it.

A
 
Energy calculations

Andy_RR said:
.......

One thing that always amuses me and is the reason why people aren't downsizing in droves to smaller fuel efficient vehicles is that the capital cost of owning, depreciation and the non-fuel running costs of any vehicle usually far outweigh the costs of fuelling the vehicle. I guess it may also apply to aircraft.

My brother, who, despite working in the oil and gas industry in Melbourne, is the biggest greenie at heart but reached the conclusion that his 5.0L V8 Falcon as a family car was not going to be traded for a smaller, more fuel-efficient four-cylinder because he couldn't justify in his mind the enormous capital cost required to swap, when compared to the potential fuel savings.
Click to expand...


Exactly, and how much of that high capital cost is energy used in the manufacturing process?

It seems few people calculate the entire energy equation including the creation of items...

At one time a solar panel used more energy in it's creation (it takes a lot of energy to melt sand and make silicon...:)...) that it would probably deliver in it's lifetime.

There is no such thing as "free" energy, we just need to clarify the calculations and move to efficiency...

gil A
 
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az_gila said:
Exactly, and how much of that high capital cost is energy used in the manufacturing process?

It seems few people calculate the entire energy equation including the creation of items...

At one time a solar panel used more energy in it's creation (it takes a lot of energy to melt sand and make silicon...:)...) that it would probably deliver in it's lifetime.

There is no such thing as "free" energy, we just need to clarify the calculations annd move to efficiency...

gil A
Click to expand...
This is the heart of it. People and politicians focus on the wrong end. Making more fuel efficient cars does very little for the total fuel consumption that car represent when we still are using coal and oil for energy production and when all transport of goods is fueled by fossil fuel.

I think this stems from the early and fundamentally flawed environmental philosophy that has gaining widespread axceptence now; If each and everyone do a little, then it all adds up (and we can save the planet, and bla bla). This is nice thoughts, but it is not how things work. IMO the only thing that will work is to forbid (on a global scale) fossil fuel in energy production. Nuclear power, hydro, solar (for places suited) is the only solution. Then, when the main problem is solved, it is time to focus on transportation; shipping, goods on roads and aviation. And finally the private sector, personal automobiles.
 
If fossil fuel is becoming rare the market will price it at an ever increasing level and people will be more careful how they use it, even without a nanny government scolding them to do so. Eventually it will be put out of competition by up and coming atlernatives. I suspect that this is further away than most people fear. In the mean time however it is an incredibly economic and effective way to store a lot of energy in a moving vehicle - and as I said before we place a huge value on our moving vehicles.
 
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briand said:
I ask you this: If co2 comes out of my tailpipe way up in the sky and no one is there to see it, does it really ever come out at all?:D....
Click to expand...

CO2 in the atmosphere takes on average about 5 fives years to recycle. Water vapor, for example, recycles in about 5 days. More C02 is going into the atmosphere today than is naturally recycling out.

The amount of C02 in the air is measureable back eons of years. Ice core samples (one way of measuring ancient settings) contain trapped bubbles of air, that's how scientists measure it. Actual CO2 measurements have been going on for only about 150 years.

It's not the percentage of CO2 today that is of concern, it is the rate at which it is going up. That steep curve is unprecedented. So far, the effect on the green house has caused a temp rise of about .8 of a degree C since the beginning of the industrial age. Previous ice age to warm ages swings have had temp changes of 6-8 degrees, so we are not in a total tail spin yet. The typical swing occurs about every 100 thousand years. We are coming out of a cool period at present.

I am no expert on this stuff, only know what I know from

http://www.teach12.com/ttcx/coursedesclong2.aspx?cid=1219&pc=Science and Mathematics

Sure beats watching TV sitcoms and shoot em ups. :)
 
Let me share a little known secret with you fellow RV fanatics;), I recently bought a used cng/gasoline bifuel F150 from EBay (2001 F150 w/7700 option, 5.4l engine, 56000 miles, for $5000 after tax rebate).

The pickup has close to the same power/mpg with either fuel, but we can buy cng from local stations for $0.73/gallon equiv here in Utah. The price/gal is even cheaper if you buy a home cng compressor and plug it into your natural gas heating line and fill overhight.

The Ebay cng vehicles generally have low mileage "fleet" maintained vehicles available at lower than bluebook prices (therefore the $7000 cng conversion and tanks are basically free). Many states (like Utah) also offer a tax rebate for part of the original cng conversion value, and they allow clean-fuel vehicles drive solo in the HOV lane.

Natural gas prodction is mostly domestically produced; it is a waste product (flared) from the oil industry in many locations. CNG is very clean burning- it allows exceptionally long engine life (does not pollute crankcase oil).

Downside, not all areas have cng pumps available at this time. You will probably need to use gasoline for at least a portion of your use on cross country trips.
 
Personally, I'm converting my f-150 to propane. It's an older carb model. I costs a whopping 150.00 plus propane tanks to convert it. The same equipment is also used for natural gas. As far as CO2 emissions.. Why don't we compare human based emissions to volcanic/zooplankton emissions. I can't remember the exact percentage, but we only account for less then 8 percent of total co2 emissions. If I can remember my old geology days, I remember that there were something like 17+ different major variables that determine the temperature of the earth aside from humankind...
 
Propane is more expensive than cng has a lower fuel value (expect a drop in mileage/power) and far better availability.

As an environmental engineer, Ive been aware of and watching the warming trend for over 20 years. Don't believe all of Gore's/media poorly researched hype. In fact, the warming trend started long before the CO2 buildup did- it is likely that warmer temps had an effect on the earths biomass which in turn, added to the CO2 load. There has been very limited correlation between CO2 levels and short term weather. Because of the small actual rise in temps, the statistical methods used are critical in determining the significance of changes- they have been found flawed and wanting, therefore, the "popular" interpretation of results has been weak at best.

Our climate has warming over the last century no doubt, but there is little to prove that man-related CO2 emissions are more than a minor component of the warming cycle. Natural events (sun flares, forest fires, volcanoes, dust storms, etc) have a much larger effect. If anything, the biggest man-made effect on CO2 levels is deforestation in the world's large rain forests. If you believe in the natural cycles of things, we are likely due for a cooling trend soon.

FWIW, I believe many of the conservation corrective steps being pushed are positive. They just will not have a noticeable effect on global warming cycles.
 
rtry9a said:
The price/gal is even cheaper if you buy a home cng compressor and plug it into your natural gas heating line and fill overhight.

Natural gas prodction is mostly domestically produced; it is a waste product (flared) from the oil industry in many locations. CNG is very clean burning- it allows exceptionally long engine life (does not pollute crankcase oil).
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JC, how much does a home compressor go for?

Propane is a by-product from refining oil into gas. Natural gas is.... well natural. Hence its name. They are getting a lot more of it these days from taps sunk into garbage dumps (from decaying organic material) but most of it still comes from deep in the ground.

I agree with your thoughts on conservation. I don't think I would take any steps to conserve if it didn't save me any money. I have been replacing my light bulbs with compact fluorescent but only because they finally got the cost (less than $2) of the bulbs down to where your payback comes in less than a year. The resulting less polution is just icing on the cake.
 
Not to be a downer

The scary part about the oil industry is that they keep doing crazy desperate things to get the oil. I surveyed an oil site for an extremely rich Texas oil businessman, and he dug the well to 18,500 feet! That leads me to think that we are reaching our peak potential. Why would he go to such extremes to get oil if it were plentiful. My suggestion to those who can, is to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. One day oil will cost over $100 per barrel, probably more like $300. We learned in 1st grade that oil will run out. Why do we keep overlooking that inconvenient truth.

On a lighter side I hope we have years left of the stuff because I haven't even shot a rivet on my dream RV-7 yet!


Don't take my word on it though, just turn on the news to watch the resource wars....

V/r
-SD
 
briand said:
JI have been replacing my light bulbs with compact fluorescent but only because they finally got the cost (less than $2) of the bulbs down to where your payback comes in less than a year. The resulting less polution is just icing on the cake.
Click to expand...

did you count the cost of disposal of the bulb when it finally fails? (it _does_ contain mercury, you know). tanstaafl
 
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