...is that the likelyhood of that happening is kinda akin to my chances of winning the lottery
Best,
Well, according to my e-mail inbox I win anything up to 1/2 dozen lotteries every day - amazingly without entering even one of them.
How lucky is that ?
You are refering to relatively simple EFIS systems with very limited functionality and (no surprise) these would (should) be about as bullet proof as you can get so on this account I completely agree with you.
However, looking at the more complex EFIS systems, those that include a lot of navigation and typically a huge amount of auxiliary functions and interfaces to many external systems, the answer is less obvious.
Complexity of software grows on average by the square of its code size (at least !) and with this, inevitably, comes the dark spectre of "bugs". I am using the term "bug" very loosly - as mostly software malfunctions in these systems are not due to bugs as such but simply a result of several things coming together that cause a condition not handled correctly by some or other routine (perhaps the programmer did not anticipate this condition).
Other "bugs" like the famous "non-initialized pointer" - every C programmers nightmare, can strike far more randomly and would not normnally freeze two identical systems at the same time.
Of course, I could write a book about all of this - but the above should suffice.
So, lets do a real world example, a silly one - but one that could very well happen:
You have two identical EFIS systems (of the "complex" type).
You are flying along and suddenly you find both systems crash or freeze. You restart the systems but after a few seconds it happens again.
What gives ? Easy - one explanation could be that the programmer uses a caching scheme to keep close waypoints in memory. He made generous provision for 1000 close waypoints and added some scheme to handle the unexpected case where there are more than this limit to handle.
As things turn out - just the area where you happen to be flying there are more than 1000 close waypoints and it turns out that the code responsible for handling this never properly managed to handle a "VOR" waypoint and gets stuck because a simple counter that needed to be incremented - did not.
OK, so now we have a perfect example of two identical systems hanging at the same time (and in this case, until you leave the critical area, you do not have any EFIS). Some systems of course will continue running - perhaps just your moving map freezes or the waypoints go away.
This now brings us perfectly to real World failure modes - assuming modern software principles for mission critical applications are followed, only the affected part of the system fails - the rest merily continues working.
This is what happens most of the time.
Where does this leave us and the original question ?
The question is perfectly valid and it is quite possible for a serious issue to freeze both systems. We can also state that this would be very rare to happen - but we cannot exclude this.
So - as usual, it depends on your aircraft's mission: What would happen if you loose your EFIS ? What would you need at minimum to continue safe flight ? Answer that and you have your answer.
Having written all of the above, I assume you are flying a single engined aircraft ? Perhaps a good idea to have two engines, one from Continental and the other a Lycoming....
Rainier
CEO MGL Avionics