The handy IFR ticket in the pocket

[Louise Hose]

Today, both XM Weather and Weathermeister failed me. I would have had my tail between my legs and turned back home this morning if I hadn't had an IFR ticket and currency in my logbook. But, I never actually flew IFR today.

This morning's forecast and METARs were quite a bit better than when I headed to bed last night so there was no excuse for not jumping in the plane and starting the commute between southeast Houston and College Station (about 100 miles). VFR with ceilings at least 1400' the entire way. Clear at the destination. So, off I flew, skirting the Bravo airspace and listening to a Bob Edwards interview.

Just before I was to break out from under the Class B inverted wedding cake, the path looked almost black and I realized that clouds extended to within a couple hundred feet (or less!) of the ground. A quick check of the XM Weather showed a couple very small areas of lightest green along my extended path and ALL airport in the area VFR. The screen refreshed and still only a little, isolated light green showed. Hmm. I started to deviate to the northeast, where the visibility looked good. And, I deviated some more. The College Station ATIS was still 10 miles visibility with scattered clouds at 3600. I climbed to 5000' msl and still the clouds were high and black out the left side of the aircraft. I started considering my options of airfiling an IFR flight plan, but it seemed certain that this storm was isolated and filing takes time and hassle, especially with Houston Approach. I continued flying along the line and thought about sitting the plane down.

I couldn't seem to get anywhere but further from my destination, the radar and METARs still didn't register this line I was flying along, and I was past Huntsville, TX. I was befuddled. Things just didn't compute. I finally flew along an area of medium gray and I could see the ground through a substantial hole. It looked like the bottom of the clouds were probably 1500' msl or higher. Still the WM Weather told me every reporting station had high or no ceilings. College Station now reported few at 3600'. I decided to drop down and see if I could make it in under this line. I mentally developed a contingency plan if it didn't work. Climb back out to the southeast. Be ready to switch to instrument flying. Be ready to file, if needed.

Throttle back, prop forward, nose down. The hole was big enough to avoid the clouds but the bottoms were about 1200 agl. The rain started bounding on Mikey and the self-doubts grew. I pointed towards College Station. About a minute later, I could see growing lightness in the sky ahead of me and I started to relax. Probably only three minutes later, I was under a clear sky. I had passed under the line. The remaining flight into College Station was as promised.....easy VFR. I tucked my IFR ticket back into the pocket, filed a PIREP on this "hidden" line of rain/clouds/scud, and enjoyed the rest of the flight.

The next time I looked at the WM Weather, a band of green and yellow extended from nearly the coast southwest of Houston to Michigan. In our neck of the woods, it was only about five miles wide and there was not one airport along the band. As I continue to watch the weather today, the southwest-northeast band remains narrow here in Texas and marching southeastward, turning METARs to red along a straight line. Bright green dots indicated airports on each side.

Lessons learned today?
I love my weather capacity. Weathermeister for planning. XM Weather with radar and METARs in the cockpit. ATISs and AWOSs over the radio. But, even with all this capacity in a relatively airport-dense part of the country, a significant, rapidly building storm can elude our visibility. I know the radar often shows green when there is no rain but I had not seen this big of a storm not register on radar (and the XM was refreshing regularly). I guess it wasn't yet raining when I first hit the wall of low clouds.

I don't actually fly IFR very often. Mikey is only set up for "light" IFR and Houston Approach is reputedly not particularly IFR-friendly during my commute hours. But, this trip was perhaps one of a dozen or more where I was able to get to work because I knew I could file IFR and Ihave the skills to stay safe if the weather situation deteriorated. I've asked for and received special VFR clearances into and out of College Station many times, a privilege I probably wouldn't exercise without the IFR ticket and currency.

Did I make good decisions today? I'll have to reflect on that one for awhile. If the weather information had been complete, I should have and would have either filed IFR or worked at home today. If I had had no in-cockpit information, I almost certainly would have either turned back home or landed at some "green" airport southeast of the line to re-evaluate. But, I had lots of information (but not complete), knew the area well, and only I could evaluate the size of the hole and the height of the ceiling floor. Most importantly, IMHO, I had the skills and training that come with the IFR ticket. My judgment at the time was that I was acting prudently. In reality, I didn't have anything scary happen and I never entered a cloud or came within 1000' of any obstacles. But, I'll still spend some time over the next few days reflecting on my decisions. I'll probably drag Paul out for some safety pilot duties in the next week just to keep my edge. I'll review airfiling procedures tonight. I just might file for IFR a little sooner next time despite weather data that says everything is okay.....everything except the view out the window.

It was a very wierd little storm line in southeast Texas this morning and I think it was one of those experiences that ultimately will help make me a better pilot. At least, I won't trust my beloved XM Weather quite as much the next time the view out the window doesn't match the view on the screen.

[randyintejas]

Great write up Louise. Texas storm season is always fun. I can not count the number of times XM did not tell the real story over the years and it seems I have been stuck on the ground at Hobby more than anywhere else waiting out a popup or line to pass.

[Bill Palmer]

An Adventure, Louise!

Thanks for sharing your experience with us. Unforecasted, delayed-report ?pop-up? weather is something we all need to consider and plan for. I wonder if ADS-B-reported/displayed weather is any timelier than XM?

Thanks Again,

Bill Palmer

[scard]

Yep. Tanya filed to get me to my birthday "party" on time this weekend into SAT itl. even though she only got to log about 5min. Actual. It is a huge advantage to have a built in safety pilot to stay current .

[Geeman]

Louise,

That's exactly why I am working to get my IFR rating. I live in the Houston area and have been in similiar situation on occasion. I was flying back from Tyler on Saturday evening trying to get to Pearland before dark. As you know the south winds were strong, and my ground speed was ****. Keep in mind I am an RV wanna be and was flying my C172. I have XM on a 396 and checking clouds and forcast the entire trip. Houston KIAH was at 2000 feet overcast and forcast to be 1500 overcast at about my ETA. As I passed just east of Cleveland the overcast was about 1400. I was thinking to myself, I doubt I am going to make it to Pearland. KIAH was still at 2000 feet. The closer I got to Baytown the worse it got. I was just east of KIAH about 20 miles out and the cloud layer was down to about 1000' and Pearland had just went IFR, so I diverted to Crosby Dunham, my homebase, and landed with about 800' or 900' overcast. Dunham is only about 15 miles east of KIAH and still reporting 2000'. When I landed I was thinking " I need to hurry up and get my IFR rating". I am hoping to have it by the end of the summer. This was about the worst weather/low clouds I care to fly in. And to think at about 3000 or 4000 feet is was sunny blue skies and that is where I would have prefered to be and I could have shot an easy approach into Pearland with a 900' ceiling.

On another note, I was planning on making your RV get together this weekend, but I am going to check out Brad Olivers project and plan on moving it to Houston to finish. Wish me luck and looking forward to meeting you and Paul again.

[Louise Hose]

Good luck with the move and finish. Sorry you'll miss the Houston RV Builders gathering, though.

Yep, Paul was flying on Saturday and we also wondered if we were going to get in to Polly with the rapidly deteriorating weather in the afternoon on the southeast side of Houston. I had almost identical weather on the commute home on Friday.....lots of bumps and rolls with a big headwind followed by descending ceiling starting about the Missouri towers. Barely scooted into Polly in legal VFR.

[N395V]

Did I make good decisions today?

Looks like pretty sound decision making and piloting to me.

1. You recognized fairly quickly something was not as it should be.
2. Took alternative actions promptly rather than "hoping" it would get better.
3. Planned a way out if your new course of action turned sour.
4. Landed safely.
5. looked back on and learned from the experience.

Thanks for sharing, now we all have learned something. Great job louise.

[David-aviator]

Originally Posted by Louise Hose

I had almost identical weather on the commute home on Friday.....lots of bumps and rolls with a big headwind followed by descending ceiling starting about the Missouri towers. Barely scooted into Polly in legal VFR.

We have all flown under such circumstances and were forced to make decisions to deal with whatever was going on. It always causes some reflection later posing the question, did I do the right thing? In this case, you did. It all worked out on both ends but not without some introspection which is very good.

You did push the edge of the box a little as always happens.

(A long time ago in another life in another airplane my son riding in the back said, Dad we sure are close to those trucks on the interstate....it was one of those days when the envelope was pushed more than it should have been due to weather but we got home safely. However, I never attempted such a flight again.)

No question, IFR training is most helpful in the decision making process when confronted with various weather situations. But would being on an IFR flight plan within the ATC system been a better idea?

Lots of days ATC does not have the airspace to keep our type of airplane out of weather we should not be in. They could provide a vector miles and miles around a system but ducking under the line, as you did VFR, sometimes is not an option within ATC due to obstruction limits and other traffic. So are we are better off VFR on your own?. Thats the dicey part of the equation. I have landed and watched a storm move by rather than proceed VFR and I was glad not to be in it on an IFR flight plan.

Your message on this subject is good reading, appropriate for the season and food for thought for everyone here. Thanks.

Our family of RV's and RV aviators has limits and we need to be reminded now and then what those limits are.

[bkthomps]

i would say check the lapse rate charts and know the "potential" for surprises would be another lesson learned or something you can do in the future to assess the overall risk of that happening

[Ron Lee]

No doubt XM weather would be great to have. It would beat having to discuss weather with Flight Watch and understand what is going on in places I am not familiar with.

But you have to wonder if XM weather has or will lead people into a sense of situational knowledge that is incomplete as you experienced and the outcome will be negative.

Obviously, XM weather will not be the causal factor rather pilot misinterpretation.