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  #111  
Old 04-11-2011, 11:24 AM
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Sam Buchanan Sam Buchanan is offline
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Originally Posted by Peterk View Post
And apparently when they did a second study of the unskilled and pre-armed them with some theory/logic concerning the test...they estimated as well as the over-estimators. So I guess the question is; how do you get the unaware underskilled to participate in training they insist they don't need. I'm gathering that is the point...or am I'm missing something?
That is the problem that must be solved.....and has so far escaped solution due to the very psychology possessed by the unskilled.

Studying stats is fine, but any of us who have hung around airports for awhile know exactly who is involved in accidents and why........
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  #112  
Old 04-11-2011, 11:43 AM
B25Flyer B25Flyer is offline
 
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Originally Posted by Sam Buchanan View Post
That is the problem that must be solved.....and has so far escaped solution due to the very psychology possessed by the unskilled.

Studying stats is fine, but any of us who have hung around airports for awhile know exactly who is involved in accidents and why........
The solution comes from changing the culture... If we create a culture where those who have poor judgement, poor skills, and poor maintenance/building, are treated as uncool, some will change and some will go away...

Changing culture is really tough, the airlines have been working on CRM since the late 70's... They have made great progress and their safety record shows that, but they still have some Bull Moose, Knuckle Dragging Captains...
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  #113  
Old 04-11-2011, 11:51 AM
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Sam and Doug, we are on the same page! it doesn't make any difference which cause of accidents you choose to "work on" - it is a target rich environment, and any improvement is in the direction of "goodness" - but it will take a culture change to essentially make "those who most need to change, but are least likely to accept that change" socially "uncool".

I have been involved in aviation safety for decades - if anyone has an actual answer to that problem, they should be awarded the Collier Trophy - no one has solved it yet. (Which doesn't mean we should not - and will not - keep trying...)

Paul
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  #114  
Old 04-11-2011, 01:26 PM
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Originally Posted by B25Flyer View Post
When working with an accident rate as high as we have in Amateur Built Experimental Aircraft... We don't need to spend too much time digging for the reasons. They are well understood. Weather (VFR into IMC), Maneuvering (Buzzing and low level acro), Fuel Management, Take-off and Landings (X-wind) and Poor building/maintenance. Focusing on Aeronautical decision-making and recurrent training will cover most of these.
The reasons cited are all common to certificated aircraft, including maintenance. So again, why are OBAM aircraft so much more likely to be involved in accidents than factory-built? Yes, we DO need to spend time understanding that. Otherwise it's Ready...Fire...Aim.
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  #115  
Old 04-11-2011, 01:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam Buchanan View Post
That is the problem that must be solved.....and has so far escaped solution due to the very psychology possessed by the unskilled.

Studying stats is fine, but any of us who have hung around airports for awhile know exactly who is involved in accidents and why........
That the unskilled and unteachable cannot be reached is relevant, if the goal is to reduce the overall accident rate for OBAM aircraft.

That the unskilled and unteachable cannot be reached is irrelevant, if we the teachable want to learn the factual reasons behind the greatly increased accident rate of OBAM aircraft so we can efficiently teach ourselves. I count myself in that category, as I think readers of this thread do. I don't believe the increased accident rate is due solely to a handful of yahoos, and because I'm not a yahoo, I'm safe. Rather, I'd like to see good evidence--the stats--as to why OBAM aircraft accident at higher rates, and then look to myself to see if I am deficient in those areas.

Is it a building problem, say in fuel systems? Then I'll take extra care in building and testing that. Is it a lack of skill in higher performing aircraft? Then I'll take extra care in getting training for that. But I need to know the reasons for the higher accident numbers.
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  #116  
Old 04-11-2011, 01:41 PM
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panhandler1956 panhandler1956 is offline
 
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Default Root cause

I see both sides as well.
I think knowing the data will help us focus on the easy fixes and make some quick gains, but any action at this point is better than nothing (read status quo). Some incremental improvement is needed, whether we hit the bulls eye or not.

Culture is a tough one and the larger the group the longer it takes to change, but over time you can gradual make a change - again incremental. This just means, we need to get on it now.
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  #117  
Old 04-11-2011, 05:06 PM
Peterk Peterk is offline
 
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it will take a culture change to essentially make "those who most need to change,

...there is more to this fascinating Dunning-Kruger research that Sam brought up. It also proved that those who under-estimate their skill level (particularly in the logic area) are also poor at correctly estimating the skill level of the over-estimators without factual support. So in theory, a culture change cannot depend upon either group to initiate or support such a need. "Perception of performance, not reality, influenced decisions about future activities."

The successful safety entities have all been regulated: military, part 121, part 135, NASA, etc. All mandated culture changes. Who will or can mandate to this self-regulated group that guards its freedom to fly as a bill of rights.

On a personal note, I fly an ELSA RV12. There are not fast...they are not good IFR platforms...they cannot pretend they are an F16. They are not designed to take anyone's flying skill to the edge of the envelope. Ironically, these very safety factors are behind the all too common comment, "when I can't get a medical, I'll just fly without one."

And they do.
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  #118  
Old 04-11-2011, 05:35 PM
Jack Tyler Jack Tyler is offline
 
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Default Some culture change is possible...

...as has been demonstrated many times in many communities, from city governance to corporate settings. GE didn't get to 6 Sigma on autopilot. But it is indeed relevant to ponder on the 'who' and the 'how' of culture change in a self-regulating community.

An earlier poster asked: "So I guess the question is; how do you get the unaware underskilled to participate in training they insist they don't need. I'm gathering that is the point..."

When Walt Disney was designing the first Disneyland, he didn't want an amusement park. He wanted - literally - a Magic Kingdom of sorts. One big piece of that was the culture of the park's staffing (the 'cast' as it later became known). The first Dean of Disney Univesity (basically, the leader of the training dept.), Mike Lane, developed a learning model to create this new kind of employee out of whole cloth. Remember: There was no model to refer back to, and they were training a lightly experienced workforce, not masters' candidates.

Lane came up with a hierarchical 4-step learning model that formed the basic building blocks of every module needing to be mastered by every cast member:
-- unconscious incompetence (the focus of some of this thread's discussion)
-- conscious incompetence (where you'd all like those underskilled, unaware pilots to be)
-- conscious comptence (the person has to 'work' at building and maintaining the competency)
-- unconscious competence (the competence just 'happens', the skill sets are ingrained, which allows the person to move on to higher order conscious incompetencies)

How were folks moved from level 1 to level 2, on their way to building a different kind of culture? Basically, 3 ways: Leadership, peer pressure, and standards enforcement. The less of one, the more of the others.

Jack
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  #119  
Old 04-11-2011, 07:26 PM
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Originally Posted by B25Flyer View Post
Focusing on Aeronautical decision-making and recurrent training will cover most of these.

There is plenty of work to do in these areas and this will cover a big share of the accidents.
My thoughts, exactly. This has been well proven in the military/airline/corporate flight environment. The FAA has been hammering away at Aeronautical Decision Making for a few years now. Getting the horse to drink after it is led to the water is, of course, our challenge.
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  #120  
Old 04-11-2011, 09:16 PM
Peterk Peterk is offline
 
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I promise I won't talk anymore but....lol

I have noticed that formation flying seems to be enjoyed by all homebuilders certainly because it it social and instills a great amount of pride in precision flying. However, each time there is a clinic, the same people sign up and the same minor groups are encouraged not to. If there was a way to encourage "new" formation pilots, think of the discipline and pre-planning that would be "muscle memory" in so many of these above mentioned under-skilled but unaware. Formation flying would make them aware very quickly. And they would move up on Jack's ladder of advancement.

I do think the people that put them on are wonderful, working fools and admire their dedication to those skills. It is that dedication and skill level we are talking about is it not?

I don't believe we (or he FAA) are concerned about the am builts that fly into IMC. I think they are concerned about pre-planning and skill level. Who better to teach and what a wonderful thing to learn.

How we build the encouragement or arm-twist the instruction or pay for the training is something else. But I myself would commit to attending and to forcing additional members to attend. Just a thought...thanks.
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