How Many Engines Are needed per year?

dbuds2 · #1 01-04-2006, 04:07 AM

Trying to estimate the business potential for all RV engines needed in a year. If there was an ultimate engine solutions, cheaper, lighter, better performance, and more reliable, how many RV's are built and needing such an engine each year?

RudiGreyling · #2 01-04-2006, 05:05 AM

I see you made a double post in 2 forum categories, not nice

...any case here is my take on it.

Not enough, and that is the main reason why the current aviation engine technology is so old & expensive, there is not a big enough market out there compared to cars, for designers to put the huge development effort and cost in and be able to get the return, and to drive the price down. Any new aviation engine will be looked at sceptically until it proves itself, limiting your sales uptake.

Currently there are 4,449 RV's flying according to Vans, so that limits you, to say +/- 500 RV engines a year at best? I do not have to old figures to see the increase. So i am guessing the 500 RV's a year.

I've read somewhere (think avweb) the annual new piston aircraft engine market is +/- 2,500 units a year. Tiny and small in comparison to the car engine market where they sell that amount of engines in a month in one country alone.

That is why we all wish a motorcar engine transplant into an airframe would be so easy and feasible, but it is not.

Kind Regards

Rudi

RudiGreyling · #3 01-04-2006, 05:19 AM

Here is some more stats you can digest and create your own conclusion from:

It says 1,685 new piston aircraft in the first 9 months of 2005

That is new piston aircraft, all needing some type of engine, across the HP ranges and manufacturers. This excludes home build kits, but the figure & market is still very small, for a new entrant to make a real landslide difference. Very very SAD!

Kevin Horton · #4 01-04-2006, 10:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by greylingr

It says 1,685 new piston aircraft in the first 9 months of 2005

And, any type certificated aircraft needs a type certificated engine, so that means the target market is homebuilts. The vast majority of homebuilders won't want to install an engine that has no service history, no matter what marketing claims are made. Deliveries will be low until the engine and company have proven themselves, which makes it really, really hard to have positive cash flow for the first few years.

dbuds2 · #5 01-04-2006, 06:19 PM

As a gas turbine and rocket engineer at a major US aerospace company for almost 30 years, I really appreciated the difficulty in bringing a "better" engine solution to market. My passion has always been homebuilts. I want to believe there is potential to modify a proven auto design, optimize the installation/cooling/PSRU/reliability and do the development in a logical and professional maner. With the result being a product that stands on analysis, process control, accelerated endurance testing and actual flying experience.

I think everyone would consider this alternative especially if more affordable than all the options today. Maybe I'm a dreamer, but, I'm forming a group with some of the finest aerospace development engineers in the world to do feasiblity studies and business plan.

Sorry about two postings, I didn't know.