Don't be stupid

[Webb]

A salute to Doug Rozendaal.. His recent post on the 800 lb gorilla popped into my head this moring when I was reading a FAA safety tip on don't be stupid.

FAASTeam Safety Tip

by Max Trescott, author and 2008 National CFI of the Year



How Will it Read in the NTSB Report?



When in doubt about a possible course of action, I think about how any subsequent NTSB report might read. Recently, a student and I had already started the engine, but the ATIS reported a direct crosswind gusting to the aircraft?s maximum demonstrated crosswind capability. The student was ready to go, but I stopped him and we terminated the flight.



This scenario ties in directly with my Safety Tip #3 about using the word ?probably? as a trigger to consider whether there are any better options available to you. That tip drew more comments than anything I?ve ever written, and I?ve reposted the article and many of the comments. In the case of the crosswind, in all probability, the wind would not have reached a peak gust at the exact moment we took off, and we would not have had an accident. To proceed, however, would have been to take a gamble. Although I?d like to think that I?ll always be lucky, that?s a self-delusionary thought. Realistically, no one can be lucky all the time.



I?d also like to think?perhaps as you do?that I?m an above-average pilot and could rely upon my superior flying skills if a problem occurred. That may also be delusional thinking for some pilots. Surveys consistently show that more than 80 percent of pilots rate their skills as above average. The logical conclusion is that pilots are a confident bunch and we overrate our abilities. Or, perhaps 30% of us may have poor math skills, because only 50 percent of pilots could be ?above average.?



With the high-crosswind takeoff that my student and I assessed, we were dealing with compound probabilities. To take off would be to hope that the wind didn?t exceed the aircraft?s capabilities, but, if it did, to hope that our superior skills would extricate us from that situation. That?s a lot of hope and, candidly speaking, I never want to have to fly a plane on hope alone.



After we shut down the engine, I asked my student, ?If we had had an accident, how would we have explained it to the Chief Pilot?? The most honest answer I could think of was ?that we were stupid.? I?m very glad I didn?t have to have that conversation.

[qiutong]

I enjoyed reading your post Webb. I too, like to use the triggers of stupid decisions, "probably" and "I think", to wake me up to the fact that I'm about to make a dumb decision. The best part of your story though, is that you taught your student that it's okay to say "No, I don't need to make this flight!" We need more pilots willing to say "no" when they think the words, "probably" or "I think". Good job!

Brad

[Webb]

Thanks, I'm just the messenger here. And it is a great message.

[Jerry Fischer]

As a pilot I always try to remember I too, am always a student. My motto has always been look at your options and " Never take Away All your Options".

Options could be anything from excellent VFR conditions, no wind, dry day, a good night sleep, currency and proficiency, a qualified co-pilot, and definitely, not the need to "get there".

[szicree]

Originally Posted by Webb

because only 50 percent of pilots could be ?above average.?

I'm off work from my job as a math prof. so please fogive this..., but you could have a group of nine pilots all with abilities that rank as a 10, and then throw in one guy who ranks as a 1. This would produce an average skill rating of 9.1, so that 90% of the pilots would be above average.

[flytoboat]

Originally Posted by szicree

I'm off work from my job as a math prof. so please fogive this..., but you could have a group of nine pilots all with abilities that rank as a 10, and then throw in one guy who ranks as a 1. This would produce an average skill rating of 9.1, so that 90% of the pilots would be above average.

I'm not math prof, but I believe this average is about comparing pilots skills against each other, and not comparing against a skill rating.

[Webb]

Originally Posted by szicree

I'm off work from my job as a math prof. so please fogive this..., but you could have a group of nine pilots all with abilities that rank as a 10, and then throw in one guy who ranks as a 1. This would produce an average skill rating of 9.1, so that 90% of the pilots would be above average.

Math gets an A, discussion on topic gets an F.....Does this mean this post is an average with a C?

All joking aside, the guy that wrote this got my attention....I don't want to answer the question on the NTSB with a "because I was stupid"

[PCHunt]

Originally Posted by szicree

..., but you could have a group of nine pilots all with abilities that rank as a 10, and then throw in one guy who ranks as a 1. This would produce an average skill rating of 9.1, so that 90% of the pilots would be above average.

What would the result be if the term "MEDIAN" had been substituted for the word "average" ??

[rv8ch]

Just ask wolfie:

http://wolframalpha.com/input/?i=med...+10%2C+10%2C+1