Cross Country Flying

[jonbakerok]

Originally Posted by Highflight

You're right Jon, we ARE supposed to do that ourselves.
Those additional sub-classifications of VFR are what we ourselves are supposed to figure out (and assign) based upon current weather, and coupled with a personal evaluation of our own experience value and pucker factor we allow for ourselves.

Vern
RV7-A

Well, obviously, the final decision is mine. But I've got to believe that the opinion of a guy with a meteorology degree who spends every day watching the weather develop is going to be a lot better than mine. My complaint is that he's in effect forbidden from giving his opinion whenever the conditions drop below perfect. Instead, his rule book tells him to simply repeat the phrase "VFR not recommended". Which forces me, the rank amateur weatherman, to make a potentially life or death decision based on artificially limited information. It's nuts.

Oh, sure. I could just decide to never fly whenever I hear that ominous phrase. But I didn't build a 200 MPH traveling machine just so I could hop over to Brenham for a burger on Saturdays.

Real life example: My first trip to Sun-N-Fun, in my old Cherokee 140. I had about 100 hours under my belt. The day I'm ready to leave the show, it's a little foggy, but I can see the other end of the runway, so it looks flyable to me. I call FSS -- "VFR not recommended. Fog extends all the way to Tallahasse, not expected to burn off until after 11:00". Oh, well, maybe later. After all, that's why I took an extra two days vacation. But the fog doesn't really clear until about 1:00. Too late to leave. Since I couldn't make home in one day, I decided I might as well stay another day and enjoy the show.

Next day, same report, only now I'm running out of time. So I start asking some of the old hands and I get these chuckles. "You scratched because of this? Man, don't you know it's ALWAYS foggy in the morning at Lakeland?". Then I get the real skinny -- "That little haze is barely 100 foot thick, but FSS is never going to give you a go-ahead. Punch through it and head east. In less than half an hour you'll be in the clear". I didn't see another cloud until I was approaching the Mississippi valley.

I put down at Meridian, MS for fuel and checked FSS again. "VFR not recommended. Low clouds, potential buildups, with showers in your path and tops to 5000 ft for the next 50 miles ". Well, with my new-found skepticism of FSS, I decided to rely on my own judgement -- after all, my Cherokee was good for at least 10,000 ft, right? Half an hour later, I'm turning back, as those 5,000 ft. clouds come up to meet me at 9,000. And as the first wisps start to engulf me, I notice little chunks of something bouncing off the windscreen -- ICE! Well, fortunately, I was able to make it back to the edge before I ever completely lost sight of the sky or picked up any ice. But it took another 45 minutes to get around and under the cloud deck (which by that time was over the field) and scud-run my way back through rain to Meridian. I had to ask for "Special VFR" to get back in.

Two "VFR not recommended" opinions on the same day to the same low-timer -- the first completely bogus and the second deadly serious. The guy on the other end of the phone knew the truth both times, but couldn't say it, so I was forced to use my own pitifully inadequate knowledge and experience. It could have gotten me killed.

And THAT's why I'm so in awe of a guy who can squeeze 2000 hours of cross-country flying around two jobs in a little over a year, without so much as an IFR ticket. Because, like I said, I've never been over 500 miles from home without getting a "VFR not recommended" at some point and I don't think that's unusual. I'm getting a little better at figuring out when they really mean it, but I still manage to scare myself once in awhile when I guess wrong. It would sure be easier if I could rely on the experience of the expert instead having to develop my own by trial and (potentially deadly) error. I just don't see the logic.

[f1rocket]

Jon,

You might want to get a couple of videos from King on VFR weather flying. They will help you assess weather conditions and to set personal minimums for flight.

We've all got weather stories. Everyone one of us has:

1) Been up there and wished we were down there; and
2) Taken off in weather only to return a short time later to the same airport.

No one guesses right every time. I would take exception to your comments that one of the "VFR Flight Not Recommended" was bogus. You might not have said that if you would have encountered an engine failure shortly after takeoff and had to search for an off-field landing location.

I've found the latest weather web sites a great benefit to making that fly/no fly decision. The ADDS site gives you a pictorial representation of all the reporting stations. Let's me know if local weather is truly local or widespread.

I can feel for you. It hard to get the experience necessary to make these decisions. In the end, don't fly in any weather that makes you uncomfortable. If you need to get more comfortable, fly with other RV'ers cross country or seek out an instructor for advise at your departure airport. They are always willing to assist you.

[redbeardmark]

Originally Posted by jonbakerok

Well, obviously, the final decision is mine. But I've got to believe that the opinion of a guy with a meteorology degree who spends every day watching the weather develop is going to be a lot better than mine. My complaint is that he's in effect forbidden from giving his opinion whenever the conditions drop below perfect. Instead, his rule book tells him to simply repeat the phrase "VFR not recommended". Which forces me, the rank amateur weatherman, to make a potentially life or death decision based on artificially limited information. It's nuts.

Oh, sure. I could just decide to never fly whenever I hear that ominous phrase. But I didn't build a 200 MPH traveling machine just so I could hop over to Brenham for a burger on Saturdays.

Real life example: My first trip to Sun-N-Fun, in my old Cherokee 140. I had about 100 hours under my belt. The day I'm ready to leave the show, it's a little foggy, but I can see the other end of the runway, so it looks flyable to me. I call FSS -- "VFR not recommended. Fog extends all the way to Tallahasse, not expected to burn off until after 11:00". Oh, well, maybe later. After all, that's why I took an extra two days vacation. But the fog doesn't really clear until about 1:00. Too late to leave. Since I couldn't make home in one day, I decided I might as well stay another day and enjoy the show.

Next day, same report, only now I'm running out of time. So I start asking some of the old hands and I get these chuckles. "You scratched because of this? Man, don't you know it's ALWAYS foggy in the morning at Lakeland?". Then I get the real skinny -- "That little haze is barely 100 foot thick, but FSS is never going to give you a go-ahead. Punch through it and head east. In less than half an hour you'll be in the clear". I didn't see another cloud until I was approaching the Mississippi valley.

I put down at Meridian, MS for fuel and checked FSS again. "VFR not recommended. Low clouds, potential buildups, with showers in your path and tops to 5000 ft for the next 50 miles ". Well, with my new-found skepticism of FSS, I decided to rely on my own judgement -- after all, my Cherokee was good for at least 10,000 ft, right? Half an hour later, I'm turning back, as those 5,000 ft. clouds come up to meet me at 9,000. And as the first wisps start to engulf me, I notice little chunks of something bouncing off the windscreen -- ICE! Well, fortunately, I was able to make it back to the edge before I ever completely lost sight of the sky or picked up any ice. But it took another 45 minutes to get around and under the cloud deck (which by that time was over the field) and scud-run my way back through rain to Meridian. I had to ask for "Special VFR" to get back in.

Two "VFR not recommended" opinions on the same day to the same low-timer -- the first completely bogus and the second deadly serious. The guy on the other end of the phone knew the truth both times, but couldn't say it, so I was forced to use my own pitifully inadequate knowledge and experience. It could have gotten me killed.

And THAT's why I'm so in awe of a guy who can squeeze 2000 hours of cross-country flying around two jobs in a little over a year, without so much as an IFR ticket. Because, like I said, I've never been over 500 miles from home without getting a "VFR not recommended" at some point and I don't think that's unusual. I'm getting a little better at figuring out when they really mean it, but I still manage to scare myself once in awhile when I guess wrong. It would sure be easier if I could rely on the experience of the expert instead having to develop my own by trial and (potentially deadly) error. I just don't see the logic.

Jon,
I'm a low-timer just like you and understand your frustration. Although the weather is a little different in ND than MS, "VFR not recommended" is pretty much the standard phrase here unless the weather is 12,000 ceiling with 10+miles visibility(okay, I'm exaggerating a little).

Here's what I do:
BEFORE calling FSS, I make good use of all of the computerized weather information, including graphical displays, then I ponder what the weather is likely to do by the time I arrive in the area of question(i.e. is it getting warmer or colder, clouds moving in/out/up/down, Tstorms brewing in the afternoon, marine fog layer in AM or Pm, etc), then consider terrain restrictions (flying across the fairly benign Midwest or taking on the Rocky Mountains). Then, I call FSS and compare when what I'm told with the opinion that I have already formed. I sometimes do this just for practice, especially if going by automobile.

When the man says, "IFR only" then I stay on the ground.

Most importantly, always leave an escape route. Before the weather gets scary, formulate some options. ALWAYS LAND WHILE STILL HAVING AN OPTION.

Last but not least, consider this: for the cost of one emergency room visit, you can rent a heck of a lot of hotel rooms.

I practice my weather skills just like I practice my flying skills.
Good luck and be safe,

Mark Andrews