The next 35 years...

[prkaye]

I just realized, 2008 is the 35th year for Van's Aircraft! Over the last 35 years, Vans aircraft have certainly had a large part to play in the significant advancements in homebuilding. The landscape for homebuilders is quite different now than it was 35 years ago (not that I'm old enough to remember, but from what i've read!).

I think it's interesting to ponder how much different again the homebuilt landscape may be in 2043 (another 35 years). Or even another 10 or 20 years? Any predictions on what's to come? My first bet would be a massive shift to a powerplant that uses something other than gasoline. I won't try to predict what the alternative fuel will be. Also, electronics will continue to evolve and things like EFIS and avionics will get better and better. What else? Let's bounce around some predictions!

[Mel]

I remember before Van's, it was very common for someone to start a project, and then before they could get it finished, something new and better would come along. That has since changed!

[Vern]

If I'm alive,I'll be 92! Therefore, you 'whippersnappers' will be running the show. I've met some of the early pioneers in air and space and feel like I'm a historical link to great aviation events and aviators. By then, we will have lost most of the links to the 'good old days.'
Will the excitement for all things that fly still be here? Will we still have the freedoms to fly? Will we be able to afford it? It is getting more expensive than it was. I remember $300-900 Cubs and T-crafts. I bought one Luscombe for $450 and another for $950. I bought a C-172 for $1500. I turned down a $8,000 Staggerwing. I turned down a $5,000 Stinson Gullwing. I still have magazine ads requesting bids for the warbirds. P-51's, B-25's C-47's,etc for a few thousand.
Will today's classic aircraft be serviceable? Will anyone want to work on them? What will fuel them? Will the FAA still be the 'Friendly Aviation Administration',or will national survival dictate a suspension of our hobby as more 9/11 events unfold?
Will EAA and AOPA still be for grass roots aviation, or be 'corporate?' Will the next generation still be public-minded enough to fight the battles that lie ahead?

[TSwezey]

Originally Posted by prkaye

I think it's interesting to ponder how much different again the homebuilt landscape may be in 2043 (another 35 years). Or even another 10 or 20 years? Any predictions on what's to come? My first bet would be a massive shift to a powerplant that uses something other than gasoline. I won't try to predict what the alternative fuel will be. Also, electronics will continue to evolve and things like EFIS and avionics will get better and better. What else? Let's bounce around some predictions!

My guess is electric.

[Sid Lambert]

Seeing the posts by Vern and TSwezty post reminds me of the old Aubrey Sweezy stories I heard from my father.

As a young 32 year old, I will never know aviation as it was back then.

[asav8tor]

Avgas will be a minimum of $25/gal.

[RichB]

Originally Posted by asav8tor

Avgas will be a minimum of $25/gal.

So we'll probably be running on biodiesel or SVO (straight vegetable oil, doesn't need to be chemically refined like biodiesel). That'll be in either piston aero-diesels or (more likely) small Innodyne-like turbines optimised for the fuel. With fuel costs that high, the low efficiency of the small turbines at low altitude won't be issue, and the business case for selling small turbines will have improved.

[dreaming]Or maybe someone will be clever enough to make a 2-shaft U-shaped turbine that adds extra stages to improve the efficiency in a small package.[/dreaming]

[C-GRVT]

I marvel both at the rapid advances in aviation (the United States puts men on the moon only 60 some years after Kitty Hawk), and at the same time some of the almost frozen in time aspects of what we do. "Stick and Rudder" published in 1944, is as relevant and useful a book today as it was in 1944.
When I take a break from building to watch a documentary on WWII aircraft, I see exactly the same building techniques used then as I am using now in my garage almost 70 years later.
I also wonder about the future of general aviation. I tend to think that the big drivers for change will not be so much advances in technology as external influences and pressures that will affect aviation incidentally - but will challenge our freedom/ability to enjoy this sport.
For example, governments (I'm thinking Canada and the U.S. here) jumping on the climate change bandwagon to restrict or make more costly the burning of fossil fuels (as an aside, I think the greatest risk in this climate change thing is rash overreaction by government); environmentalist types getting more traction with arguments that there has to be something wrong with airplanes in the sky that have no pollution controls and no mufflers; security types seeing a whole area of uncontrolled, unscreened activity in the skies; airlines lobbying to both shift costs to general aviation and limit access to the ever more crowded airspace - and governments wanting to be seen to be commiited to action on the security/airline/environment files. General aviation is an attractive target for government regulation being both highly visible and with limited political clout (who has sympathy for people foolish enough to risk their lives in small planes, who shouldn't be up in the sky anyway and cewrtainly not sharing airspace with commercial passenger aircraft, and who obviously must have too much money). I really do fear for the future.
But not enough not to order that $20,000 plus Lycoming clone!
Bill
RV-6A
Ottawa,
Canada

[sprucemoose]

http://www.sonexaircraft.com/press/r...pr_072407.html

I believe that this is the future of recreational aviation. And it will not take 35 years. It is my belief that this will be a commercial reality within 10 years. I for one find it fascinating and exciting.

[RichB]

Originally Posted by sprucemoose

http://www.sonexaircraft.com/press/r...pr_072407.html

I believe that this is the future of recreational aviation. And it will not take 35 years. It is my belief that this will be a commercial reality within 10 years. I for one find it fascinating and exciting.

There's an interesting video about it over here... http://aeroconversions.com/e-flight/

Range still seems limited (up to 1 hour was mentioned), but it's still very very cool.