Only a minority complete new RV projects

Captain Avgas · #1 09-04-2007, 08:35 PM

It has been claimed in the past that only about one-third of builders who buy an empennage kit from Vans will ever complete the plane. Put another way...two-thirds bomb out for one reason or another.

I now believe that those figures are not exaggerated....in fact they may be a bit glossy. I have been following the VansAirforce Classified section for the last 3 months and have recorded that incomplete RV projects are coming onto the market via this forum at the rate of virtually one a day. For example 29 projects have been offered for sale in the last 30 days.

It must also be considered that many more projects than this will be changing hands because VansAirforce is only one advertising medium. And of course many projects sell within Building Chapters by word of mouth without being advertised at all.

Until VansAirforce started its Classified section it was not possible to get a good grip on the number of builders bailing out of RV projects. Now it is clear to see that the number is quite massive. For one reason or another the vast majority of prospective builders lack the wherewithal or other requirements to complete a plane.

In fact it now appears that there may be more incomplete projects being sold by builders than new projects being sold by Vans. This would be due to the fact that incomplete projects are often sold several times.

Incidentally, there is currently a disproportionately large number of RV10 projects coming onto the market. This may indicate that builders are initially unaware of the extra cost of building this model...or they have simply underestimated the sheer magnitude of the task.

Also you would think that most of the projects changing hands are simply empennage kits. But that is not true. They are changing hands at all stages of construction. A popular time to sell seems to be around the finishing kit stage. I surmise this might be in part because it is at that time when the average builder fully realises his building budget is shot and he still has the most expensive items ahead of him (engine, interior, avionics, paint etc).

rvbuilder2002 · #2 09-04-2007, 09:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain Avgas

In fact it now appears that there may be more incomplete projects being sold by builders than new projects being sold by Vans. This would be due to the fact that incomplete projects are often sold several times.

(preceeded by big sigh)

Bob,
In making the above statement...Do you have any idea of how many kits Van's sells every year?
It would be my guess that you do not.

n2prise · #3 09-04-2007, 09:29 PM

I kept a close eye on Van's Hobbs Meter as my project neared completion. I watched when my first flight report went up on their web site and the number of flying RV-9(A) airplanes became 155. My builder number is 90622. That indicated that I was representing about 25% of all the folks that bought and finished an RV. Now I know that is not scientific at all. I wonder if Van's will tell us what the highest serial numbers are for each of the models. That way we could look at the total percentage by RV type as well as doing the overall completions.

Beyond that, how many are still building slowly in a "pay-as-you-go" mode?

Jerry K. Thorne
East Ridge, TN.
RV-9A - - N2PZ

nucleus · #4 09-04-2007, 09:50 PM

As I recall Van's said a while ago the highest completion percentage was 26% for the RV-6. This is supposed to be the best in the industry.

Nucleus

Mike_ExpressCT · #5 09-04-2007, 09:52 PM

One of the forums at AirVenture this year pretty much spelled out the secrets of homebuilding:

1. It's going to take twice as long as you think

2. It's going to cost twich as much as you think.

Most people who have never built an airplane don't realize going in what a commitment a project it will be

Van's still does things better than any other kit maker...tons of factory support, good complete kits, and lots of support in the community! It's no wonder why over 5,000 RV's have been finished...

It would be nice, however, to know the location of all the partially completed kits out there. I'm sure many people would sell them dirt cheap, and there are a lot of people out there who would love to continue building where the original builder left off

RV7Guy · #6 09-04-2007, 10:34 PM

In August of 2005 when I went to Scapoose for Transition Training I had the opportunity to visit Van's and take the tour. At that time they said they were averaging 3 kit sales a day, 7 days a week!! And, that was before the 10 really got ramped up. They expected that to go up.

At Oshkosh 2005 I attended one of the Van's seminars. Van reported that they had sold over 15,000 tail kits of the various flavors. He said the numbers had increased over the past few years because of the modern prepunched technology.

Just for giggles I'll start a Poll on the subject.

Captain Avgas · #7 09-05-2007, 12:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rvbuilder2002

(preceeded by big sigh)

Bob,
In making the above statement...Do you have any idea of how many kits Van's sells every year?
It would be my guess that you do not.

Scott, you are suggesting that the number of kits that Vans sells is vastly greater than the number of incomplete projects changing hands. The clear insinuation is that, relatively speaking, not many projects change hands.

I must admit that that suggestion sets off my smoke alarm.

Firstly, I note that you provide no data to support your suggestion.

Secondly, it concerns me that you may work for Vans and therefore have some undisclosed pecuniary interest in the matter.

Perhaps you could address both of these matters. I am sure if Vans has the data on new kit sales and keeps records of projects changing hands it would be of immense interest to VansAirforce readers to know the numbers.

dan · #8 09-05-2007, 01:10 AM

I'm sitting here trying to understand what seem to be numerous "agendas" in this thread. I thought we all knew already that building an airplane was challenging and costs a lot (otherwise every knucklehead out there would have one). What is the point (or points) of this thread?

Rivethead · #9 09-05-2007, 01:14 AM

My guess, and that's what it is just a guess, is that there are a lot of tail kits out there that gather dust. Does that concern me? No. Why? because it means that I am, or at least will be when I finish, a member of a much more elite group of people. That group being the finishers. Long live the finishers.

w1curtis · #10 09-05-2007, 02:38 AM

As usual some take their anecdotal evidence from a narrow view and come to a full blown (wrong!) conclusion.

I also don't see the point of this thread. Reminds me of that "Our own worst enemy" thread. To conclude that "quite massive" number of builders are "bailing out" is an extreme stretch. I propose that before you once again go running down the theatre aisle yelling fire, you look at the First Issue 2007 edition of the RVator page 19. A vibrant resale market for Van's kits says nothing other than they are popular kits. Any other conclusion represents an opinion without facts. Opinions without facts are just noise.