Van's RV-15 (Next thing coming?)

[Kyle Boatright]

Originally Posted by akb3

Vans has guaranteed that I will not buy a kit until I know what this new plane is. I?m ready to go, but I don?t want to have buyers remorse and buy let?s say a 10, and then Van?s RV-15 be some kind of new, whiz bang updated version of a four place that no one can live without.

Be careful playing the waiting game. There will always be a next aircraft right around the corner.

[Lexxan]

Vans has stated multiple times that RV-10 is their second best selling plane kit at the moment, I doubt they are going to announce an updated version of it after the sunk cost of all their new production equipment and cause such a popular kit to be slowed down in orders for a few years while people wait for the kit to start production.

[airguy]

Originally Posted by Lexxan

Vans has stated multiple times that RV-10 is their second best selling plane kit at the moment, I doubt they are going to announce an updated version of it after the sunk cost of all their new production equipment and cause such a popular kit to be slowed down in orders for a few years while people wait for the kit to start production.

Really? Didn't work that way for the 3/4, or the 6/8, or the 7/9/14...

[Kyle Boatright]

Originally Posted by Lexxan

Vans has stated multiple times that RV-10 is their second best selling plane kit at the moment, I doubt they are going to announce an updated version of it after the sunk cost of all their new production equipment and cause such a popular kit to be slowed down in orders for a few years while people wait for the kit to start production.

The -10 is fine overall, but could use some tweaks. What they should do is update the kit with a cabin top and doors that are a drop in fit and don't need a huge amount of finishing work. Oh, and update the doors to front hinged. In addition, they should offer "canned" avionics packages at a great price so they get some $$ on those sales, as opposed to all of the custom shops raking in the dough on that stuff. The canned avionics and wiring packages would probably be good for 75% of builders, who'd prefer to install a known-good scheme as opposed to having to design, spec, purchase, and install their unique system.

I think these things would increase kit sales significantly - the doors, cabin top, and avionics are daunting to a lot of folks and dissuade some from starting a build. The avionics packages would be a path to additional profitability for Vans, which is good for the longevity of the business and support of our aircraft.

[enterprise]

Vans does do this with the RV-12 right now with pre-made and wired panels.. The more I think about it, the more I am in the camp that they will do a pop rivet, easier to build RV-9 with a bigger cabin. It would not be as fast, but getting a under 1000 hour realistic build time would sell a lot of kits.

[StuBob]

Originally Posted by enterprise

Vans does do this with the RV-12 right now with pre-made and wired panels.. The more I think about it, the more I am in the camp that they will do a pop rivet, easier to build RV-9 with a bigger cabin. It would not be as fast, but getting a under 1000 hour realistic build time would sell a lot of kits.

Put a high wing on it, and you have a RANS S-21. Could be.

[N333M]

I think this entire thread could be condensed greatly if only the Vans company would chime in and tell us, What do they want to accomplish with their next offering? And prioritize the parameters.
Do they want bragging rights in the aviation world for the fastest 2 or 4 seat aircraft kit? then by all means proceed with a huge engine'd little plane..or a turbine.
Do they want to offer a twin retractable to have a fast heavy hauler?
Tall about the fringes of the market!..sheeesh..
Do they want to enter STOL bushplane market?
IS market fragmentation of their existing products a factor in consideration?
or..
Do they want to increase market share among homebuilder's, for the long term future of the company, preserve and create more jobs at the factory, and sell as many airplane kits as possible? How about a RV15, AND a RV16 with one fuselage.
IN my view, if the latter is the answer, how about this for a game plan.
It has to be a high wing, as thats a market they are not in, and its really big.
There are two major sub-segments of that market.. the folks that are attracted to the bushplane mission, and the folks that are attracted to the high-wing traveler mission.
An entry into this high wing market kinda need 2 airplane designs. They have already proven successful in pleasing 2 segments of the same market targets with the RV-9 and the RV7, aerobatics capable, and non aerobatics capable, nose wheel and tailwheel. Look how easy that was. One fuselage design and just 2 different wing designs. and tailwheel or nosewheel choices at the time of build. I dont think there is really a need to make a "convertable" of either config.
This same coverage of the different market sub-segments could be approached the same way.
One wide , easy entering fuselage design, with 2 wing options. A fat STOL airfoil with big flaps for one, and a nice high altitude performing airfoil, like the RV 9's for the other. jeez..they already have most of the parts on the rack for that one, if the 9's airfoil would work on a high wing design?? Dont know why it would not.
Start right in the middle of the market with a design to accommodate all the 4 cylinder lycoming variants, from a salvaged 320 from a piper to the newest IO390's. That puts it into the budget envelope of the most buyers.
AND, as for me, IF I were the CEO, I would start with the slick high wing speedster. Why?, because others are concentrating on STOL as the priority, and nobody is doing the traveling version, tweaked for speed. AND, if as I mentioned, the RV-9 Roncz airfoil proved suitable, its already in production. Just a new fuselage design, and a tweaked already available wing is all it take to get the first prototype in the air. Lowest risk, fastest market entry, and if it works, They have a direction to go with designing the rest of the high wing options. After all, Time is money, and it seems to me they have been dragging their feet long enough. How old is this thread? Most all of us builders know what the term "analysis paralysis" is, and I think theres a bad case of it going on in Oregon.
I encourage all to chime in if you agree...

[DTARM1]

Originally Posted by Palamedes

Anyone have any ideas / guesses as to what the next product to come out of vans will be?

Any hopes?

I personally would like to see a complete refactor of the RV-3. More of a modern "fighter plane" for those of us who will never actually get to pilot one of those heh. Larger than the current three for us "bigger boys" (Fat.. okay fine.. I'm fat..).

Thoughts?

I think Van's is due to update and may start transitioning to a more "less liable" business model - maybe a move to carbon fiber like Cessna and Cirrus have done, or a more simple design where more parts are made under someone else's liability.

With law suits the way they are, one bad decision and Van's or any company for that matter could be sunk.

Also, when Van's started taking off, other manufactures likely took note. As a result, those manufacturers sell kits (like Rans) that can be completed in 200-300 hours. They're probably taking too much of the market. Vans would be wise to reclaim that market in the form of a STOL plane.

Whatever the case, I'll bet that $35 million lawsuit about the crash that killed that little girl and caused by the builder using RTV in the fuel system had an impact. That should scare all of us.

It's going to be good no matter what.

[David Paule]

Given Van's investment in tools that work with aluminum, plus their proven success with it, I'd expect that the next kit will also be aluminum.

Since the cost of performance increases sharply with multi-engine airplanes, it's unlikely that the next airplane will be a twin. Nor a trimotor or more.

Since the RV-14 is so popular and assembles so relatively rapidly, probably that sort of instruction and kit quality will be continued.

We haven't seen many, if any, high wing airplanes of similar power with the performance of a comparable RV, so the next airplane will be low wing.

I expect the next airplane to be somewhat similar to the current line. It won't be a single seat airplane because the market's not there. If it were, you'd all have a Panther in the hangar. That means two or more seats.

Possibilities, in my opinion - a tandem seat airplane like an improved RV-8; a semi-STOL airplane somewhat like an RV-9; or less likely, an RV-10 or RV-12 taildragger. An RV-12is taildragger would be something I'd sure look hard at, in spite of my RV-3B project.

Dave

[Kyle Boatright]

Originally Posted by David Paule

Possibilities, in my opinion - a tandem seat airplane like an improved RV-8; a semi-STOL airplane somewhat like an RV-9; or less likely, an RV-10 or RV-12 taildragger. An RV-12is would be something I'd sure look hard at, in spite of my RV-3B project.

Dave

The only hole in Van's lineup that has enough market potential is a STOL something or other. 2 seats ala Rans or 4 seats ala Bearhawk if they want to go that way.

I continue to think they will update their manuals and streamline the panel building process for the existing aircraft (-7 through -10) and funnel more and more of the panel and firewall forward stuff through Van's as opposed to Stein or others. That seems like a profitable path without a lot of investment in a new airframe.

Of course, I'd love a pre-punched RV-3, but...