Resale value of RV-12 if PBOR2 gets passed?

[gogo2390]

I have a sport pilot license and have been looking at buying an LSA. The RV-12 is pretty much my go-to choice.

From what I've read, most people that buy LSA's aren't people that only have a sport pilot license....They tend to be old guys with an existing license (Private Pilot or above) that want to fly but won't pass their medical.

Why would anyone buy an LSA once the third class medical reform gets passed (yes, it's been "any day now" for years)?

With this in mind, is it right to assume that RV-12s (or any other LSA) will be worthless when people can buy an RV-7 for the same price, and not have to deal with Rotax's or the weight/power/speed restrictions....this would also give those people the option to buy a much cheaper plane like a Cessna 150 for $20k.

[mturnerb]

Popcorn time, but here's a case for the RV-12:

- True 2 adults, plus baggage plus full fuel
- 120 kts at 5 gal/hr
- Great flying airplane - very much an RV
- Range is "OK" - 350nm+ with a strong fuel reserve
- State of the art avionics and autopilot (in my case dual screen G3X Touch)
- Good speed - faster than a 172
- New airframe
- Rotax is smooth-running with 2000TBO - not sure it's so bad to deal with (I would compare SB to similar ones on Lycomings but carb floats are cheaper than crankshafts)

Sure there is a case to be made for faster RV's, etc but not a bad option.

[DaleB]

Ever scrunched two big guys into a 150? There are a lot of reasons you can buy them cheap. I'd pay extra for an RV-12.

If PBOR2 or some other expanded FAA-medical-free rule change goes through, I think you'll see the price of some of the LSA qualified aircraft drop some. Maybe a lot. I personally wouldn't pay a premium right now, for example, for an Ercoupe or a BC-12 in less than pristine condition.

I don't know that the value of an RV-12 will drop much, though. It's a comparatively new or brand new airplane, all current technology, good engine, GA prop and all. It will still have many advantages over an awful lot of alternatives. For example it'll still cruise faster than most C-172s with the same effective number of seats on half the fuel burn.

Yeah, it's true that they cost as much as an RV-7, but given the supply & demand... I don't know that it will have that big of an impact. In fact, since the pool of potential buyers for faster RVs will be greatly expanded I don't see any problem at least in the shorter term (5-10 years).

Of course I could be totally wrong. It happens all the time.

[Chino Tom]

I hate to be pessimistic, but it doesn't seem likely the FAA will roll
over on 3rd class medical reform. Have you been to your AME lately?
Sleep apnea is near the top of the concern list. Convinced we are
dozing off in flight

[David Paule]

Add superb visibility to the list of good points.

Dave

[RV7A Flyer]

Originally Posted by gogo2390

...once the third class medical reform gets passed...

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Oh, stop it, you're killing me!

Never going to happen. AMEs don't want to give up the money, FAA doesn't want to give up the control, Congress couldn't give two s**ts about private pilots, and the alphabet organizations just keep pimping for donations (except ALPA, who actually came out against reform).

But don't worry...Inhofe is behind it all the way, he assures you! Be sure to contribute to his campaign, doncha know...

LOL!

[roadrunner20]

Originally Posted by mturnerb

Popcorn time, but here's a case for the RV-12:

- True 2 adults, plus baggage plus full fuel
- 120 kts at 5 gal/hr
- Great flying airplane - very much an RV
- Range is "OK" - 350nm+ with a strong fuel reserve
- State of the art avionics and autopilot (in my case dual screen G3X Touch)
- Good speed - faster than a 172
- New airframe
- Rotax is smooth-running with 2000TBO - not sure it's so bad to deal with (I would compare SB to similar ones on Lycomings but carb floats are cheaper than crankshafts)

Sure there is a case to be made for faster RV's, etc but not a bad option.

I could get my RV7 to do 120kts at 5 gal/hr too.
Or 165kts @ 9 gal/hr.
Just sayin.
All RVs are great!

I would also like to get rid of the AMEs. A few years ago when I went into the exam room, I could smell cigarettes. The AME had a burner going.

[gogo2390]

Originally Posted by RV7A Flyer

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Oh, stop it, you're killing me!

Note my skepticism lol. The thread is titled "..if it gets passed". I'm completely aware of the BS that has been going on with this.

Originally Posted by gogo2390

Why would anyone buy an LSA once the third class medical reform gets passed (yes, it's been "any day now" for years)?

Just seeing what other people think about this "hypothetical" scenario.

I simply don't want to buy a plane and lose 20 grand if pilots get the option to fly/buy a plane that isn't crippled by what the FAA decided was an LSA.

[mturnerb]

Originally Posted by roadrunner20

I could get my RV7 to do 120kts at 5 gal/hr too.
Or 165kts @ 9 gal/hr.
Just sayin.
All RVs are great!

I would also like to get rid of the AMEs. A few years ago when I went into the exam room, I could smell cigarettes. The AME had a burner going.

Agree - after a short time back to flying after a long break, I already want faster RV with longer legs than my RV-12. But as we have agreed, the -12 is a respectable, real airplane all by itself. After 300+ hours in (mostly) Cherokees and Beechcraft trainers, for me the difference is dramatic.

To address the OP's question, and as others have said, the -12 stands on its own as a good airplane. The real market problem right now is not lack of pilots with medicals, it's a general decline in the number of new pilots who are interested in GA (or can afford it). But there seems to be a strong market at the high end (i.e. Cirrus) and a somewhat steady market for "affordable" entry-level (LSA and experimental mostly) simpler airplanes, as well as RVs in general. Hard to see how adding more pilots to the general buyer pool (medical reform) will hurt the value of newer LSAs like the -12. The biggest effect might be driving up the price of airplanes like other RV's and older Cessnas, etc. Hopefully we'll get the chance to find out.

[Jetguy]

From what I've read, most people that buy LSA's aren't people that only have a sport pilot license....They tend to be old guys with an existing license (Private Pilot or above) that want to fly but won't pass their medical.

This true to some extent. But there are a few other reasons this occurs. The ELSA version is one of the easiest kits on the market to build. Successful completion of a 12 kit is much faster and easier than a the other RV models. A person needs to look at the mission that he wants to fly with his aircraft. Most of the pilots you stated above never go over a 100nm from home and usually fly by themselves. They want the satisfaction of building to completion with their own hands a working flying airplane. They have the time and the money to complete and fly their 12. Younger guys have families and are working and no time to build.

Why would anyone buy an LSA once the third class medical reform gets passed (yes, it's been "any day now" for years

For the reasons stated above and your reason. Wait around for years for the new rule or move forward and fly now, you make the call. Different strokes for different folks. Why do we have 10 different automobile manufacturers?

With this in mind, is it right to assume that RV-12s (or any other LSA) will be worthless when people can buy an RV-7 for the same price, and not have to deal with Rotax's or the weight/power/speed restrictions....this would also give those people the option to buy a much cheaper plane like a Cessna 150 for $20k.

No they won't be worthless. They will be the same price they are now. The used ones may not sell as fast as they do now but they will sell. It comes down to mission, operating cost, marketing, etc. Your last sentence is all about money. If you have plenty then buy a new one, if you don't then buy a used one. Factory built are getting very, very, very old. Parts are getting more and more Expensive and harder to find. They are much harder to work on to. Also if it doesn't have it you are looking at between $6000 to $8000 and up for the avionics needed for 2020. But the basic math will always favor the cheaper C150 cause you can fly your brains out before you reach $75,000 ELSA or $120,000 for SLSA. In the end it comes down the what you the individual wants.