Does any one out there have any idea what the success rate of RV builders is? I'm kind of curious.... I know from the flight instructing days in the 90's that only about 10% of part 91 private pilot students ever finish & go on for other ratings. I know its pretty subjective. But I wonder how many people start building an RV and actually complete it.
Van's Air Force
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RV build success rate.
- Thread starter Daniel S.
- Start date
My guess is less
Close to a decade I am watching RVs and what evolves around them. I don't have hard numbers but I guess it's less then 10%. Then good half of these ten percents could not maintain finished RVs and sell them. There could be a reason to justify the sale but few are actually trying again. It's enormous challenge for ordinary folks I am not talking pros and multiple repeat offenders.
Close to a decade I am watching RVs and what evolves around them. I don't have hard numbers but I guess it's less then 10%. Then good half of these ten percents could not maintain finished RVs and sell them. There could be a reason to justify the sale but few are actually trying again. It's enormous challenge for ordinary folks I am not talking pros and multiple repeat offenders.
Guy Prevost
Well Known Member
It's really hard to quantify. I know of RV-4 kit #14 that was just finished locally a couple of years ago. Some people take a year, some people take 30!
longranger
Well Known Member
Just conjecture here, but I'd guess way more than 10%, if you're talking about the ratio of tail kits sold to airplanes eventually completed. I'll put my guess at 25+% range. At a 10% completion rate, to have 7,000+ flying Van's would have had to have sold 70,000+ tail kits, which is an average of something like 2,000+ kits/year for the life of the company! I'd think Van's would have the actual number readily available.
Now, if you're talking about the number of original purchasers who finish their airplanes themselves, that may be closer to 10%. In any case, I'd bet there aren't many (or any?) other manufacturers who beats Van's.
Now, if you're talking about the number of original purchasers who finish their airplanes themselves, that may be closer to 10%. In any case, I'd bet there aren't many (or any?) other manufacturers who beats Van's.
704CH
Well Known Member
This is a great thread and I would really like to know as well. I am 2.5 years into a standard build 7 and am targeting finishing by the end of 2012. Right now I am learning about the true costs of building a plane and its not the kit.. The true cost comes all comes at once about 3 years into the project. Engine, Prop, Avionics.. Its as huge a hurdle as the build itself. In fact in some cases if added all up, you might find yourself paying more in shipping and miss-orders than the cost of the original empennage.
Also, I am surprized at how many recently finished products I see going up for sale. Not sure if it is the cost of ownership, or some other reason, but many builders sell them.
I would like to see stats on all RVs Flying, if the current owners built them, or bought it. This would be an interesting metric as well
Thx
www.704ch.com
Also, I am surprized at how many recently finished products I see going up for sale. Not sure if it is the cost of ownership, or some other reason, but many builders sell them.
I would like to see stats on all RVs Flying, if the current owners built them, or bought it. This would be an interesting metric as well
Thx
www.704ch.com
longranger
Well Known Member
Good idea Kent. My builder # is 74023 (purchased only 1 month ago), so I'm guessing that's the 4023rd RV-7 tail kit. Per Van's First Flights page, 1147 RV-7/7A's have flown, for a completion rate of over 28%.
randyintejas
Well Known Member
Just another point but, think about all the builders that do not even have a PPL. That?s a lot of hurdles on the track. Cost to build + cost to get PPL!
Wow Randy. I can't even imagine anyone taking the plunge to build an RV and not even be a private pilot. I guess they are out there. I've had a ton of ppl students quit after 20 of not being able to land... Imagine if you had invested in a RV too. . Obviously, I'm not knocking these guys or any thing.... That's just a ton of risk & learning. WOW!!! Is all I can say to that path.
. Obviously, I'm not knocking these guys or any thing.... That's just a ton of risk & learning. WOW!!! Is all I can say to that path.
Sam Buchanan
been here awhile
Good idea Kent. My builder # is 74023 (purchased only 1 month ago), so I'm guessing that's the 4023rd RV-7 tail kit. Per Van's First Flights page, 1147 RV-7/7A's have flown, for a completion rate of over 28%.
True. It wouldn't be accurate to use the latest plans number because you need to allow time for the current builders to complete their project. That's one reason it is difficult to nail down a percentage because many projects will eventually be completed.
longranger
Well Known Member
flion
Well Known Member
Maybe not. Consider a kit that changes hands several times before finally being completed. Let's say it changes hands 3 times. Does that count as three failures and one success? What if the last person got it just before it was ready for first flight? Does that really count as a success?
I'm thinking of the fairly recent thread about the kit with the spar ground down that apparently changed hands several times. I'd count those as multiple flaming failures - but if the current owner sticks with it and gets it done right then it will be one spectacular success, much better than my straightforward 14 year build.
I understand the motivation behind the OP's question but I think that statistics are kind of misleading in a question that really depends on so many variables.
DCat22
Well Known Member
Just conjecture here, but I'd guess way more than 10%, if you're talking about the ratio of tail kits sold to airplanes eventually completed. I'll put my guess at 25+% range. At a 10% completion rate, to have 7,000+ flying Van's would have had to have sold 70,000+ tail kits, which is an average of something like 2,000+ kits/year for the life of the company! I'd think Van's would have the actual number readily available.
Now, if you're talking about the number of original purchasers who finish their airplanes themselves, that may be closer to 10%. In any case, I'd bet there aren't many (or any?) other manufacturers who beats Van's.
Are the builder numbers sequential from 0? Or what are the based as starting on...since they do seem sequential at least, and based on ordering a tail kit. Mine is in the 74000's and from December 2011.
EDIT: Seems the number starts with the type of plane? So that would be over 4,000 RV-7 tail kits, right? Looks like you might be able to work this out for each model and have a pretty good guess.
EDIT2: Like Mark said.
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sbarger24
Well Known Member
Wow Randy. I can't even imagine anyone taking the plunge to build an RV and not even be a private pilot. I guess they are out there. I've had a ton of ppl students quit after 20 of not being able to land... Imagine if you had invested in a RV too.
I did it....I guess I started drinking the Kool Aid
Actually had a really good instructor and we became pretty good friends as well. I would say half way through my private pilot in a C152, he gave me a ride in his RV-6A, it was like adding gasoline to a fire. I ordered a tail kit, finished my PP, and now have more than doubled my hours in my RV-7A.Captain Avgas
Well Known Member
Answering the question
This is the original question that Daniel asked. He's querying what percentage of builders actually buy an RV empennage kit and complete the project. And it's a good question because he wants to know what HIS chances are of success if he buys an empennage kit and gets going. He's not interested in knowing whether statistically some-one else will have success finishing his project after he has failed.
Most respondents on this thread are not answering his question. Rather they're discussing what percentage of RVs are FINALLY COMPLETED (perhaps after changing hands during construction several times).
My best guess is that most RV projects will EVENTUALLY get finished by somebody. Each failed build attempt (project) still has market value and at some price (always much lower than the value of the original parts) it represents good value for some-one else to take over the challenge and continue building. So eventually, perhaps after passing through several hands, it will eventually be completed. It is doubtful however that the completion will provide much solace to the original purchaser of the project who perhaps bailed out mid way through the wings.
It has been speculated that the success rate of builders who start a project FROM THE START (ie from the empennage) and complete it to flying may only be of the order of 10%. My guess (and it is just a guess) is somewhere between 10% and 30%, depending on whether it is a slow build or a QB kit. Certainly the number of incomplete RV projects that come up for sale just on VansAirforce are staggering. I would speculate that on VansAirforce alone RV projects are changing hands faster than Vans are selling new kits (empennages).
But to get the actual figures will be impossible because only one source knows exactly how many projects are changing hands and that source is Vans. And Vans are not likely to reveal those statistics, particularly if those statistics reveal that the chances of a first time builder completing a project from the empennage are in fact quite small (which they will be).
At any rate only one thing is reasonably certain. Whether for lack of skills, lack of perserverance, lack of time, or lack of money, the vast majority of builders who start an RV (from the empennage) will never finish it and will lose a substantial amount of money on the exercise.
This is the original question that Daniel asked. He's querying what percentage of builders actually buy an RV empennage kit and complete the project. And it's a good question because he wants to know what HIS chances are of success if he buys an empennage kit and gets going. He's not interested in knowing whether statistically some-one else will have success finishing his project after he has failed.
Most respondents on this thread are not answering his question. Rather they're discussing what percentage of RVs are FINALLY COMPLETED (perhaps after changing hands during construction several times).
My best guess is that most RV projects will EVENTUALLY get finished by somebody. Each failed build attempt (project) still has market value and at some price (always much lower than the value of the original parts) it represents good value for some-one else to take over the challenge and continue building. So eventually, perhaps after passing through several hands, it will eventually be completed. It is doubtful however that the completion will provide much solace to the original purchaser of the project who perhaps bailed out mid way through the wings.
It has been speculated that the success rate of builders who start a project FROM THE START (ie from the empennage) and complete it to flying may only be of the order of 10%. My guess (and it is just a guess) is somewhere between 10% and 30%, depending on whether it is a slow build or a QB kit. Certainly the number of incomplete RV projects that come up for sale just on VansAirforce are staggering. I would speculate that on VansAirforce alone RV projects are changing hands faster than Vans are selling new kits (empennages).
But to get the actual figures will be impossible because only one source knows exactly how many projects are changing hands and that source is Vans. And Vans are not likely to reveal those statistics, particularly if those statistics reveal that the chances of a first time builder completing a project from the empennage are in fact quite small (which they will be).
At any rate only one thing is reasonably certain. Whether for lack of skills, lack of perserverance, lack of time, or lack of money, the vast majority of builders who start an RV (from the empennage) will never finish it and will lose a substantial amount of money on the exercise.
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Alan Carroll
Well Known Member
In the past Van's has occasionally announced how many empenage kits they've sold. I googled an article from Feb. 2007 that says a total of about 6000 RV-6/6A empenages had been sold when these models were discontinued in 2001. According to the latest Hobbs meter there have been 2461 completions of these models so far. If these numbers are correct then the completion rate for the RV-6/6A is better than 40%. Very impressive, and this is without the latest matched-hole refinements etc.
I'm one of the guys who started building my first RV before my PPL was completed....and I never got to have a ride in one nor even sat in one (there just wasn't many around at that time) before building or ordering the first kits. In fact my first ride of any kind in any RV was my first takeoff in my completed RV! Since Vans' brother lived here locally during his airline days, we had a good motivator...and that explains the larger than normal collection of old generation RV's around here (which evetually lead to the huge # of builders we currently have).
Regarding completion ratio, last I heard was that Van's rate was many times the industry average - even years ago before these new fancy prepunched kits existed! Maybe one of the Vans folks have more than my anecdotal data...
Cheers,
Stein
Regarding completion ratio, last I heard was that Van's rate was many times the industry average - even years ago before these new fancy prepunched kits existed! Maybe one of the Vans folks have more than my anecdotal data...
Cheers,
Stein
Maybe the wrong question ??
If you ask how many are completed by the orginal builder, it might be 10% but if you just ask about completions, I would say that on any of the VANS quickbuilds it would approach 90 to 100% over time.
These are not the kits of old. Almost anyone can complete one but even better almost anyone can buy a partially completed kit and finish it. That simply wasn't true of old kits where all the parts were hand made from three sheets of hand drawn plans and the quality of the pile of parts was always suspect.
Think about the math here! Assuming you get past the tail stage, you have about 25k in the airframe at a minimum. Another 10-20k in an engine and then add the avionics. So the deal is that no matter how badly burned out you get, the kit itself has lots of value to others at almost any stage of completion. Most folks will not let 25-60k sit around once they burn out, run out of money, or lose interest in the project. Once you have that much into one, the only way to get it back is to sell the kit to someone who will complete it or complete it yourself and sell it. It is much more salealbe at full value as a flying airplane.
The reason old kits didn't complete is because it did take a very special person to complete one from scratch with no help. There are few folks like that around and there is VERY limited market for something built with hand made parts, no plans, questionable quality control. That just isn't the case with a VANS Kit. There is a ready market at some price for every uncompleted kit. There is a buyer interested in completing the kit because they can either buy it right and keep it or buy it right ...build it.... and make a little profit on the deal.
Quality control plays a big part in keeping partially completed kits saleable. Since the spars, and all other critical componets can be inspected (not like glass), repaired, and renewed....there is no real concern about the structual integrity of a partially completed airframe as long as you can see it and/or repair it.
I would contend that because of the large initial investment (once past the tail kit), that virtually all VANS kits will complete at sometime with someone but maybe only 30-40% with the ogrinal owner.
The VANS kit broke the mold in more ways than one! If I had to have money tied up in an uncompleted kit .... this would be the one I want! Oh,... that's right, I already have one and it got completed by a first time builder in only 7 years, 6 months, two days and a couple of hours time.
Bill S
Got the Grin
7a
If you ask how many are completed by the orginal builder, it might be 10% but if you just ask about completions, I would say that on any of the VANS quickbuilds it would approach 90 to 100% over time.
These are not the kits of old. Almost anyone can complete one but even better almost anyone can buy a partially completed kit and finish it. That simply wasn't true of old kits where all the parts were hand made from three sheets of hand drawn plans and the quality of the pile of parts was always suspect.
Think about the math here! Assuming you get past the tail stage, you have about 25k in the airframe at a minimum. Another 10-20k in an engine and then add the avionics. So the deal is that no matter how badly burned out you get, the kit itself has lots of value to others at almost any stage of completion. Most folks will not let 25-60k sit around once they burn out, run out of money, or lose interest in the project. Once you have that much into one, the only way to get it back is to sell the kit to someone who will complete it or complete it yourself and sell it. It is much more salealbe at full value as a flying airplane.
The reason old kits didn't complete is because it did take a very special person to complete one from scratch with no help. There are few folks like that around and there is VERY limited market for something built with hand made parts, no plans, questionable quality control. That just isn't the case with a VANS Kit. There is a ready market at some price for every uncompleted kit. There is a buyer interested in completing the kit because they can either buy it right and keep it or buy it right ...build it.... and make a little profit on the deal.
Quality control plays a big part in keeping partially completed kits saleable. Since the spars, and all other critical componets can be inspected (not like glass), repaired, and renewed....there is no real concern about the structual integrity of a partially completed airframe as long as you can see it and/or repair it.
I would contend that because of the large initial investment (once past the tail kit), that virtually all VANS kits will complete at sometime with someone but maybe only 30-40% with the ogrinal owner.
The VANS kit broke the mold in more ways than one! If I had to have money tied up in an uncompleted kit .... this would be the one I want! Oh,... that's right, I already have one
and it got completed by a first time builder in only 7 years, 6 months, two days and a couple of hours time.Bill S
Got the Grin
7a
Ron Lee
Well Known Member
The answer cannot be given by ANYONE here. Whether another builder completes the plane has ZERO bearing on whether the OP will complete the project.
Alan Carroll
Well Known Member
This was the original question, but there's also another way of looking at it. Quantifying the odds that a particular builder is going to finish a kit is only partly dependent on the kit itself. It also depends on the builder's own persistence, money, time, skills, spouse support, etc. These attributes have nothing to do with the kit itself. Furthermore, the "average builder" has changed significantly through time.
To me the total completions are significant because they more objectively measure the feasibility of the kits coming to fruition. I wonder what the completion percentage was for BD-5s? Certainly tiny compared to RVs.
Sam Buchanan
been here awhile
TVRVBG experience
The Tennessee Valley RV Builders Group began in 1998 when a handful of RVs in the Huntsville area were under construction. The late-90's, early 2000's saw a population explosion of RVs in our group due to a strong economy and high-tech influence in the area.
Without taking the time to actually tally up the numbers but casually looking over the member roster, it appears most of the 30 something RVs built in our area over the past twelve years have been completed by the original builder. A couple were completed by second builders, and one or two have been abandoned but might be completed by someone someday.
I don't know if our experience was typical. The strong support within our group may have contributed to a high completion rate. But those who are speculating on a 40-50% completion by the original builder may not be very far off the mark.
For the builder contemplating an RV project, The following remarks penned by Alex Sloan (Tony Bingelis award winner and North Alabama RV builder) may be helpful:
"Trying to see the whole construction process can be a little discouraging and I caution you in doing so. Building an airplane is a thousand and one little jobs that make one big job that will look like an airplane. When I was in the process of plans building my RV-3 (ed: nine years!) I received the best advice ever offered; "Do not try to see the end of the tunnel". Concentrate on only the job that is laying on the work table and get it done. Go to the next job and concentrate on it and get it done, etc. By following the guide Vans gives you and adhering to it closely you will progress well. Do not set a time table on getting the job done. Enjoy each and every job as you progress from one to the next. The joy of having your own plane that you manufactured is having joy with the construction process and seeing it go together piece by piece."
The Tennessee Valley RV Builders Group began in 1998 when a handful of RVs in the Huntsville area were under construction. The late-90's, early 2000's saw a population explosion of RVs in our group due to a strong economy and high-tech influence in the area.
Without taking the time to actually tally up the numbers but casually looking over the member roster, it appears most of the 30 something RVs built in our area over the past twelve years have been completed by the original builder. A couple were completed by second builders, and one or two have been abandoned but might be completed by someone someday.
I don't know if our experience was typical. The strong support within our group may have contributed to a high completion rate. But those who are speculating on a 40-50% completion by the original builder may not be very far off the mark.
For the builder contemplating an RV project, The following remarks penned by Alex Sloan (Tony Bingelis award winner and North Alabama RV builder) may be helpful:
"Trying to see the whole construction process can be a little discouraging and I caution you in doing so. Building an airplane is a thousand and one little jobs that make one big job that will look like an airplane. When I was in the process of plans building my RV-3 (ed: nine years!) I received the best advice ever offered; "Do not try to see the end of the tunnel". Concentrate on only the job that is laying on the work table and get it done. Go to the next job and concentrate on it and get it done, etc. By following the guide Vans gives you and adhering to it closely you will progress well. Do not set a time table on getting the job done. Enjoy each and every job as you progress from one to the next. The joy of having your own plane that you manufactured is having joy with the construction process and seeing it go together piece by piece."
It is always good to be realistic when considering taking on a project like building an RV, but I think even Bobs' careful analysis is a bit pessimistic.
When averaged out over the passed 10 years or so, if you combine all of the sub kits Van's ships annually, it works out to about 500 complete airplanes per year. I don't think there comes anywhere close to 500 emp. kits sold per year on VAF (or anywhere else).
My personal experience closely matches Sams'. In my 20 years of involvement with RV's I have personally known of about 40 people who comitted to starting an RV project. Of those 40, only about 5 gave up and passed the project on to someone else. I am not meaning to suggest the completion rate is 80 %, but I think it is far higher than 30%.
There are a couple of things that make analyzing this rather difficult.
One is that the sales volume has been very exponential over time. The sales volume in the early 90's was much lower than it has been in the last 10 years.
That means a huge number of the total kits sold could still be very active projects.
The second issue is how much the kits have changed. I think the completion percentage for people that started RV-4's and RV-6's is much worse than for those that started some of the later kits.
Hey guys.
I didn't mean to spark a debate on what I meant by build success rate.. I think Bob Barrow (captainavgas) has the best interpretation of my question. I'm about to start my RV 7 in the next couple months and I wanted to get an idea of the odds stacked against me. so, I was wondering on the success rate to completetion of the original purchaser / builder. I was betting on it being around 10%... I love those odds & the challenge. I guess we'll see if I can achieve my life-long dream in next few years... Thanks for all of your input on this topic. If any one comes across stats, please do post here.
Thanks.
I didn't mean to spark a debate on what I meant by build success rate.. I think Bob Barrow (captainavgas) has the best interpretation of my question. I'm about to start my RV 7 in the next couple months and I wanted to get an idea of the odds stacked against me. so, I was wondering on the success rate to completetion of the original purchaser / builder. I was betting on it being around 10%... I love those odds & the challenge. I guess we'll see if I can achieve my life-long dream in next few years... Thanks for all of your input on this topic. If any one comes across stats, please do post here.
Thanks.
cbkillion
Member
I think the odds of anyone finishing one that they started is about 90%. By that I mean it takes about 10% good luck to finish and 90% of not quitting.
Assuming you have the motivation to see it through and perseverance to not give up, then I'd say you have a 90% chance of finishing it because that's the part you can control.
Also, throw me into the category of builders who don't have a PPL. I got my first ride from Chad Jensen just as I was finishing my empennage!
Assuming you have the motivation to see it through and perseverance to not give up, then I'd say you have a 90% chance of finishing it because that's the part you can control.
Also, throw me into the category of builders who don't have a PPL. I got my first ride from Chad Jensen just as I was finishing my empennage!
David Paule
Well Known Member
The basic question is a good one. It can clarify the quality of the kits. A poor kit will hardly ever result in a completion, and a good kit should often get finished and fly.
However, there's probably a threshold level of quality. Below that, they mostly won't fly. Above that, they mostly will, over time. The BD-5, as Alan pointed out, is probably an example of a kit that didn't rise to the threshold.
The RVs are examples of kits that meet or rise above the threshold. The RV-3 is a close one, with a lot of work needed that the later kits have done. And the RV-12? There's no question there. If you can buy the kits for that one, you can finish the plane.
Daniel, I think one way to answer the question for you is this: If you buy an RV kit, and stick with it, you can finish it. It's been proven.
Dave
However, there's probably a threshold level of quality. Below that, they mostly won't fly. Above that, they mostly will, over time. The BD-5, as Alan pointed out, is probably an example of a kit that didn't rise to the threshold.
The RVs are examples of kits that meet or rise above the threshold. The RV-3 is a close one, with a lot of work needed that the later kits have done. And the RV-12? There's no question there. If you can buy the kits for that one, you can finish the plane.
Daniel, I think one way to answer the question for you is this: If you buy an RV kit, and stick with it, you can finish it. It's been proven.
Dave
Captain Avgas
Well Known Member
Data based on projects for sale
I have just checked through the VansAirforce classified ads for RV projects put up for sale in the last 30 days (that's the extent of the records).
In total, 38 incomplete projects have been abandoned and offered for sale in that period of time. This does not include the sale of preview plans.
As a matter of interest they comprise of 4 RV4s, 4 RV6(A)s, 14 RV7(A)s, 5 RV8(A)s, 4 RV9(A)s, 3 RV10(A)s and 4 RV12(A)s. The large number of RV7(A)s being turned over is interesting and may warrant further discussion.
At any rate this represents an average of 1.27 projects a day being turned over. Extrapolated out over 365 days this represents 463 projects a year.
However these are only the projects being abandoned on VansAirforce. It does not include the projects being put up for sale through other media such as Barnstormers etc. Nor does it reveal the extent of projects being abandoned overseas (because they do not generally advertise on VansAirforce).
Therefore I think we could reasonably assume that the number of RV projects currently being abandoned annually is well in excess of 600 (and that is probably quite conservative).
I also think it would be reasonable to assume, based on previously published figures, that Vans are not selling anywhere near 600 empennage kits per year. In other words every year significantly more RV projects are being abandoned than new kits are being sold. Or put another way, the average RV will change hands at least once before it is completed.
These figures would seem to suggest that the RV completion rate BY THE ORIGINAL PURCHASERS OF EMPENNAGES is probably very low when averaged out across all models.
I have just checked through the VansAirforce classified ads for RV projects put up for sale in the last 30 days (that's the extent of the records).
In total, 38 incomplete projects have been abandoned and offered for sale in that period of time. This does not include the sale of preview plans.
As a matter of interest they comprise of 4 RV4s, 4 RV6(A)s, 14 RV7(A)s, 5 RV8(A)s, 4 RV9(A)s, 3 RV10(A)s and 4 RV12(A)s. The large number of RV7(A)s being turned over is interesting and may warrant further discussion.
At any rate this represents an average of 1.27 projects a day being turned over. Extrapolated out over 365 days this represents 463 projects a year.
However these are only the projects being abandoned on VansAirforce. It does not include the projects being put up for sale through other media such as Barnstormers etc. Nor does it reveal the extent of projects being abandoned overseas (because they do not generally advertise on VansAirforce).
Therefore I think we could reasonably assume that the number of RV projects currently being abandoned annually is well in excess of 600 (and that is probably quite conservative).
I also think it would be reasonable to assume, based on previously published figures, that Vans are not selling anywhere near 600 empennage kits per year. In other words every year significantly more RV projects are being abandoned than new kits are being sold. Or put another way, the average RV will change hands at least once before it is completed.
These figures would seem to suggest that the RV completion rate BY THE ORIGINAL PURCHASERS OF EMPENNAGES is probably very low when averaged out across all models.
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Good Topics Keep Coming Back....
We had this same discussion a few years back...always good to get new takes on it....
http://www.vansairforce.com/community/showthread.php?t=16284
My personal opinion is that an individual's "success' rate on finishing a project like an RV is much more dependent on THEM (and their unique situation) than on any statistical analysis of the kits themselves. Age, Marital status, Kid status, job status....and the individual's unique "fortitude"....these all are going to play in far more than "if they can build the kit". Yes, these kits can be built - that has been proven. The latest ones almost build themselves. Will an individual's "situation" allow them to complete it? That is the question!
Knowing how many people have abandoned projects doesn't help anyone figure out how NOT to abandon theirs. Knowing WHY they abandoned it is truly informative.
Maybe a good thread would be "what caused you to abandon (sell, pass along, find a new home for...) you project?"
We had this same discussion a few years back...always good to get new takes on it....
http://www.vansairforce.com/community/showthread.php?t=16284
My personal opinion is that an individual's "success' rate on finishing a project like an RV is much more dependent on THEM (and their unique situation) than on any statistical analysis of the kits themselves. Age, Marital status, Kid status, job status....and the individual's unique "fortitude"....these all are going to play in far more than "if they can build the kit". Yes, these kits can be built - that has been proven. The latest ones almost build themselves. Will an individual's "situation" allow them to complete it? That is the question!
Knowing how many people have abandoned projects doesn't help anyone figure out how NOT to abandon theirs. Knowing WHY they abandoned it is truly informative.
Maybe a good thread would be "what caused you to abandon (sell, pass along, find a new home for...) you project?"
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Sam Buchanan
been here awhile
semantics
When I used the term "abandoned" in my earlier post about completions in the TVRVBG, I intended it to refer to projects that are no longer in progress with little prospect of future construction. In other words, they are pushed up into a dusty corner of a hangar somewhere in a state of neglect.
I don't consider a project that is sold by the original owner to be abandoned if it is purchased by someone who intends to continue construction.
Like Paul, I think it much more productive to explore ways to avoid a particular project from dying on the vine rather than indict the builder community with the inability to pursue the dream of building an aircraft. Vans Aircraft and her builders are a success story beyond what anyone could have predicted, and hundreds of new RVs are added to the fleet every year.
Somebody is doing something right.
When I used the term "abandoned" in my earlier post about completions in the TVRVBG, I intended it to refer to projects that are no longer in progress with little prospect of future construction. In other words, they are pushed up into a dusty corner of a hangar somewhere in a state of neglect.
I don't consider a project that is sold by the original owner to be abandoned if it is purchased by someone who intends to continue construction.
Like Paul, I think it much more productive to explore ways to avoid a particular project from dying on the vine rather than indict the builder community with the inability to pursue the dream of building an aircraft. Vans Aircraft and her builders are a success story beyond what anyone could have predicted, and hundreds of new RVs are added to the fleet every year.
Somebody is doing something right.
Wayne Gillispie
Well Known Member
It can be done with patience, goal setting and saving
If you want know how to be a successful builder(not pro guys doing it for a living)...talk to successful builders.
You may find out whether you have the "right stuff" or not.
This is how I proceeded. Age 7- dreamed of building and flying my own plane; 17- joined the Army to work on Blackhawks and maybe fly them; 18- married a like minded woman and wrote out our future short/long term goals and bought our first vehicles(used); 18-38- Acquired the skills/most of the tools; 21- A&P; 25- bought first starter home; 30- had our first child and built our second and present house/shop; 32- bought our second vehicles (new this time) and still own them; 33- had our second and last child; 38- paid off all debt; 38- ppl 6 weeks/60 hrs; 39-41- saved then ordered entire kit, same for remainder of plane, kept the build simple.
All of this on a hvac tech/elementary teacher salary. I think we may have paid $20k in interest our entire lives. Interest is taking most Americans "excess" income, because of the "gotta have it now" attitude. We eliminated interest asap. Now 41 and finally reached our second from last goal...First flight with family last weekend. The last is to travel the country with our soon to be 9 and 12 year olds.
If you want know how to be a successful builder(not pro guys doing it for a living)...talk to successful builders.
You may find out whether you have the "right stuff" or not.
This is how I proceeded. Age 7- dreamed of building and flying my own plane; 17- joined the Army to work on Blackhawks and maybe fly them; 18- married a like minded woman and wrote out our future short/long term goals and bought our first vehicles(used); 18-38- Acquired the skills/most of the tools; 21- A&P; 25- bought first starter home; 30- had our first child and built our second and present house/shop; 32- bought our second vehicles (new this time) and still own them; 33- had our second and last child; 38- paid off all debt; 38- ppl 6 weeks/60 hrs; 39-41- saved then ordered entire kit, same for remainder of plane, kept the build simple.
All of this on a hvac tech/elementary teacher salary. I think we may have paid $20k in interest our entire lives. Interest is taking most Americans "excess" income, because of the "gotta have it now" attitude. We eliminated interest asap. Now 41 and finally reached our second from last goal...First flight with family last weekend. The last is to travel the country with our soon to be 9 and 12 year olds.
Paul Tuttle
Well Known Member
What Paul Dye said.
I bought my complete kit on Jan 05, engine and the works. My plan was to have it in the air within a year. Then life started happening, a rapid succession of events that all took me further away from the project each time. I thought about selling it a time or two, but decided to hang on, I didn't owe any money on it and my investment in it appeared to be as solid as anything I could do in the stock market.
As things got sorted out, I found I had some time available. I dusted off the pieces as well as my building skills and slowly went back at it. I'm happy to say that it looks like I should be in the air some time this summer...
(cautiously optimistic forecast)
I'm glad I decided to keep it. I'm sure there are many who ended up in the same boat as I did. My advice would be, if you're not sure what you should do, hang on to it until you are.
I bought my complete kit on Jan 05, engine and the works. My plan was to have it in the air within a year. Then life started happening, a rapid succession of events that all took me further away from the project each time. I thought about selling it a time or two, but decided to hang on, I didn't owe any money on it and my investment in it appeared to be as solid as anything I could do in the stock market.
As things got sorted out, I found I had some time available. I dusted off the pieces as well as my building skills and slowly went back at it. I'm happy to say that it looks like I should be in the air some time this summer...
(cautiously optimistic forecast
)I'm glad I decided to keep it. I'm sure there are many who ended up in the same boat as I did. My advice would be, if you're not sure what you should do, hang on to it until you are.
I'd like to see the birth of a self assessment questionaire come out of all this discussion. A questionnaire that ultimately gives a person a percent chance of success on finishing a build. Many of the questions would be obvious: money, family, interests, etc, but some may not be so obvious. Some categories would be weighted heavier than others. Such a self-assessmnet could be a visible sticky somewhere and may save many people the uncomfortable experience of sinking years of time and money into an endeavor that was never meant to be.
I would take that bet...
I think Vans has shown some numbers, and they should since they do show completions are much higher than the "industry" average.
to be a valid assessment people would have to be honest, and know important things that they might not know. have you heard of the saying "you don't know what you don't know"?
some people are dreaming when they buy kits, and despite having real challenges they still complete the kits.
I think having a valid assessment would be tremendously difficult
pierre smith
Well Known Member
Yes, but there is a caveat.
A questionaire will only show, to a degree, the probability of success, IF, and a big 'IF' at that, life doesn't throw you a curve ball.
At 59 years of age, my wife left and my deciding to build the -6A against her objections, catalyzed her disdain and a 30 year marriage evaporated.
Other factors such as bad health and bancruptcies are all possibilities for project derailment.
Best,
A questionaire will only show, to a degree, the probability of success, IF, and a big 'IF' at that, life doesn't throw you a curve ball.
At 59 years of age, my wife left and my deciding to build the -6A against her objections, catalyzed her disdain and a 30 year marriage evaporated.
Other factors such as bad health and bancruptcies are all possibilities for project derailment.
Best,
What's wrong with being honest? Also, success in completing a kit doesn't necessarily mean a person was wise to build in the first place. Take a look at what was sacrificed in order to complete the build; particularly when it involves other people (ie. family). Obviously there are life events that come along which can't factor into the decision to build or not, but there are enough "knowns" in most peoples lives that can factor into the equation. I'm concerned about the guy or gal that just isn't facing reality. The person that is in debt up to their ears, has little ones at home, company threatening lay-offs, relocations, etc. may have the timing wrong if they are filling out an order for an emp kit.
nothing wrong with being honest, but maybe a better phrase would have been "truthful, even about things they do not really know". They might be as honest as they think they can be, but are being very optimistic. Also, most people are probably worse financial planners than they think. That ends up making a huge difference in the completion rates I think.
so they might fill out the assessment, and think they are honest, but it won't reflect their true ability to finish a kit. Most people think they are ok if they are paying their bills, even putting some money in their 401k or whatever retirement fund they have. They might also have very large credit card debt, a car loan, a house loan, and work in a job that won't be there next year.
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RVbySDI
Well Known Member
Aw yes, now we really start digging into the reality of what Paul Dye and others have voiced in this thread. The "WHY " for builders quitting on the project.
Your words are never truer! Too many people are in such deep debt that they cannot even begin to fathom spending the amount of time, energy, resources and MONEY it takes to see such a large project as this to fruition. This type of endeavor requires that one must analyze his/her internal fortitude with great detail. He/she will have to make sacrifices, make tough decisions about spending habits. Not only for him/her self but for all other members of the family, and, have to do it over a long period of time. This will become a strain on any family that does not have total buy in to the goal. This alone is probably the most common motivation for AID's (Aviation Induced Divorce). Even though you may be willing to commit to the sacrifices needed, others in your life may not be willing to do so.
The absolute most important skill needed to complete an RV project is PERSEVERANCE! No statistical analysis of past starts and stops of RV builds will tell you whether you have what it takes to complete an RV. To evaluate that perseverance is a uniquely private task. Only I can truthfully answer that question for myself. Only you can answer that for yourself!
My plane took 5 years, 1 month and 3 days from the time I received the kit until its maiden flight. Many many times during that period I became very frustrated, wondered if I could do this and, at times, was ready to quit. The truth is I had many friends and my wife who helped me work on my airplane. If it were not for their support, their help, their willingness to keep me motivated and keep me moving forward I know I would not have been able to complete my project.
So all of this to say, though I think it would be interesting to know the statistics of RV completions, I do not believe knowing that information will provide any valuable information on evaluating whether we can personally complete our own project(s). These are the things that may serve to better tell us if we have what it takes to complete an RV:
- Knowing yourself, your capability for dealing with frustrations, stress, setbacks in a long term project;
- Knowing your capabilities to keep pushing yourself through many trials over a long period of time;
- Understanding your financial situation and being able to maintain your family financial situation while expending monetary resources on a long term project;
- Gaining the support of your immediate family to undertake this major project (this involves their understanding of the financial sacrifices and time sacrifices that, not only you, but they will need to be willing to undertake);
- Acceptance that you are not an island, and therefore, having the wisdom to involve as many family, friends and fellow enthusiasts in the tasks involved that will be required to complete your RV.
Live Long and Prosper!
Yes, that's exactly right, Pierre. It's the unexpected "curve ball" that can (not must) derail a project. No questionnaire would have helped me when all three of those factors surprised me in the short period between my first RV flight and my original date for ordering a kit. I guess I was "lucky" (HA!) that my challenges arrived before my build instead of during it.
On the other hand, the fact that my dream stayed alive as I worked through those challenges just affirmed how important it was to me in the first place. I had led a blessed life, so maybe without overcoming my other challenges, I would have given up during the project after stumbling at one of its many possible roadblocks. Instead, having survived the worst experiences, I no longer fear the prospect of failing to complete my project.
The reason I believe this whole question is flawed is that people who finish a project as complex as an airplane are different, better people at the end than they were when they started, so the answer to the question can't be found in asking why someone else had the tenacity to work through it, only in undertaking the experiment to discover if we do too.
--
Stephen
jdeas
Well Known Member
I do believe that would be a better measure of risk and completion. When I first started looking for a kit to pick up it seemed that most were being sold due to outside influences. In fact, I'm not sure if anyone I contacted simply gave up. Life just got in the way (kids, job, marital status). I don't think five years is out of the building norm and a young builder with a new family has a lot of plates to keep spinning
Captain Avgas
Well Known Member
Wow, Paul we partook in that previous discussion on completions virtually 5 years ago. Isn't time flying. I'm glad you looked up the link. It was quite interesting to revisit the thread after all this time. Thank you for that.
In terms of your suggestion, I'm not certain that asking builders why they failed to complete a project will ever solicit much in the way of an honest reply.
I suspect that many builders bathe in the admiration and kudos that comes when family and friends learn that they're "actually building an aircraft". And they quickly become aware that in social circles they are indelibly linked to the aircraft building process above all else.
The end result can presumably be a significant loss of face in the event that they are unable to complete the project. The publically stated reasons they provide for this "failure to succeed" are more likely to be about soothing their own psyche than anything else.
Sam Buchanan
been here awhile
Most non-aviation people who find out I build airplanes (and actually fly them!!) think I'm a nut........
comfortcat
Well Known Member
Just because you built an airplane, that doesn't mean you are NOT a nut.
Actually, Sam's web site (planes and cars) was a big motivator for me to start my RV.
It would be interesting to have a list of startup motivators and look at success/failure rate with those. For example, here is my list:
Reason to start = Chance of completion
============= ==================
Save money over production = Poor
Want to fly cheap = Poor
Impress others = Poor
Enjoy building = Good
Social event = Good
Like to make stuff = Good
etc.
My brother-in-law and I really like building. If I had to quit today and throw out all the work I have done. It still would have been worth it. Building is cheaper than therapy.
Dkb
