How a careful VFR pilot (almost) becomes a IFR emergency

I know we all think it. I am a safe pilot and there is no way this would happen to me. Well, this morning I was almost proven wrong. A little embarrassing but I will share.

I departed KDWH (Hooks airport, Houston TX) at 8am to do some test runs on the new P-mags. The sky was clear and no clouds (not a single one). Dew point/temp spread was 5 degrees and it was increasing. So all seemed okay. Right?

Took off and flew out beyond the class B to climb up to 5500 (8K d-alt) and start my runs. I am keeping an eye out for other aircraft and watching the EFIS and engine instruments. I am conscious of my surroundings and am noticing a slight haze build. I think to myself, ?maybe I should cut this test short. I have to get to work and I don?t need a hazy landing?. But in no way did I think this was an emergency. So I reduce the throttle and start a 500ft/min descent. Seemed like a good and proactive idea. Engine was hot from the runs and did not want shock cooling, so I did the standard descent.

Well, by the time I hit 4500 ft, (2min after descent start) visible clouds were all over the place. It was now scattered. I thought, ?this does not look good?. So I increased the descent to 1500ft/min. and circled a clear area. 1 min later it was broken and I was still above the clouds. Pulled the throttle, and lowered the nose and pulled some G?s to drop like a rock. I threaded through a hole and was on the bottom at 1200ft AGL and 10mi from 11R (Brenham, TX). Landed with 1300ft overcast and 0.5 on the hobbs.

Recap ?The sky went from clear to completely overcast in a matter of less than 10 min. I have never seen anything like this. I could literally see the clouds form like in a time lapse video, but this was real.

So, I almost became a VFR pilot stuck on top. I had 3-hours of fuel, and within the hour the clouds were high enough and again broken up. But I had no way of knowing the clouds would break up.

Lessoned learned:

1. Watch the weather and react as soon as it starts moving toward uncomfortable. Don?t wait until it is uncomfortable.
2. Don?t get blinded by what seems to be an emergency. There are other options than the one you are focusing on at the moment.
3. Carry my cell phone because I don?t know anyone?s number without it.
4. Get to really know my equipment. An emergency is not a good time to learn. If the GPS had gone out I would have been in trouble. I have a VOR and a second GPS but I don?t use those often.
5. Finish my IFR training, because you never know when you are going to need it.

In hind sight I was not in an emergency situation. I could have waited it out on top. If pushed, I could have gone through it, as I have done this before with an instructor. But I sure felt the pucker factor. Mostly because I was surprised how fast the clouds formed and had almost cut me off my clear view to the ground.

Let me know what you think or how you would have handled this.

Interesting story indeed, just a couple of constructive criticisms as you sound like you are interested to hear them.

When you dived through the gap were you certain the base was that high? You could have found yourself with cloud on the ground and the hole closing on you, and no idea what was solid and not

Good reason to have lots of fuel, unless you crash!

Just because you have done some IF work, does not mean you would have performed that well doing something dodgy under pressure. Better than average chance of you featuring in a news article, not so good.

Never descend below the lowest safe in imc unless you are on an instrument approach, common sense and the law.

Lastly, your biggest mistake was after you realised the cloud was building fast, why the heck did you doddle around at 500fpm ? You ended up doing 1500 and diving through cloud that was getting worse. There is no such thing as shock cooling unless you climb like an idiot with CHT's over 450, then close the throttle and dive, and even then I doubt it. Shock cooling is when you crash into a lake......or dive through cloud and lose control then crash.

Please understand I am not wanting to offend you, but we all learn from these things, and I think you first and biggest mistake was worrying about an Old Wives Tale. Thing just got worse from there and that is usually when an ccident happens.

I hope that all makes sense and I am glad to hear you intend finishing your IR, it really made a better pilot out of me

Glad you are back.....SAFE!

Glad you made it back on the ground in good shape! Years ago I landed in New Bedford MA. Put plane in hanger walked over to shut hanger door and it was solid fog! it was at night and I saw no evidence of it. The fog literally rolled in over the time of a few minutes!

Get the instrument....I think it really hones great skills in a pilot whether or not they use it on a continuous basis!

I know the feeling, I got in a similar spot one time while cruising around 13K, cumulous building in front and can't get over the top anymore so decide to go below into a the classic "sucker hole" (mainly because I did not want to back-track). Got down to 500 agl before I could proceed "scudd running" VFR. What I should have done was turn to clearer skies while still on top and then decend into a safer area. I learned a lesson from that one.

Welcome to Houston area weather! Clear and humid, then - boom! Solid overcast with bases at 800'. The good news is that in an hour, they;ll be broken at 2,000'....MOST of the time. Some days, they just stay in a low overcast. How can you tell what it is going to do? You can't! (time of year will make a difference....)

That's Louise's normal commuting area - she sees this often.

A common occurrence in that area

Mike,
I'm sure glad you worked safely through it. There must have been more than a dozen times where I have departed from Polly Ranch (SE Houston) between 6:30 and 8 am with good VFR reported and expected all the way to College Station (NW of Houston) only to encounter conditions like you found somewhere between Sugarland and College Station. It usually forms between 900' to 1100' msl and some times it stays the entire day. About two weeks ago, Paul told me at breakfast that weather looked great for my commute. I checked, saw about a 2 degree Celsius dew point spread, and decided to just wait awhile. Sure enough, CLL turned IFR for the morning.

Having the IFR ticket and currency in the pocket has made all the difference for my commute. While I've never had to air file IFR on the commute, there have been lots of trips I wouldn't have completed through the area if I didn't have that capacity. Get the IFR ticket and keep current if you plan to commonly fly that area in the morning.

Thanks David (RV10inOz). I am looking for constructive critizm. I had an hour to think about what had happened while sitting at Brenham, and I know I don't have the answers. This is the why the post.

I did know about where the bases were as I did have weather on board and I am very familiar with the exact area I was flying over.

Not trying to defend myself, but from thick haze to broken was only about 5 min. I think the speed of the build up is what was causing my focus to become myopic. It just went white under me. This was not me flying along and running into clouds. I was doing test runs in 4 directions, so I was basically flying in a circle. The clouds built from the humidity in the air. Clear sky's to solid in 10 min. What is causing the most concern is that I still don't know how I would have avoided this.

Anyone have a rule of thumb or info on how to avoid this situation? Or is this just a welcome to the humid city of Houston and better get my IFR?

Celsius or Fahrenheit?

If it was a spread of 5F and a departure before about 8:30 am in that area, I would stay on the ground....and I commonly do. I need 3 C to feel assured that it won't turn bad quickly. I've never seen it happen with a spread of 5C and, if that's the case, you hit an particularly unusual day.

IFR

Yep, time to get the ticket. Then if it happens again:

1. Ask controller for local IFR.
2. Shoot approach.
3. Smile all the way to tie-downs.

Absolute best ticket I ever got. You'll never look back

Don Oltman

Mike D said:

....welcome to the humid city of Houston and better get my IFR?

Click to expand...

There's your answer. I never realized how much I needed my IFR ticket until I had it. I'd say it has saved my bacon many times, but more accurately, it gave me the freedom to continue my flight many times that I wouldn't have otherwise been able to do.

It is my opinion that every pilot should pursue an instrument rating, (and get recurrent training, not just stay current) as you just never know when it might come in handy. I fly often enough that I shoot approaches with an instructor every 90 days, even if I just flew actual IFR the day before. It's where my comfort level is.

Find your comfort level and go with it.
Fly safe and fly often!

Surprise weather

My advice would be keep a careful watch on the dewpoint spread. Easier said than done at times. I had a similar experience in Alaska. It was accompanied by a 7 degree temperature drop. The effect was predictable but that drop was never predicted. Not sure if that's normal there. Can't say that you would ever see that in Colorado, my base.

Louise Hose said:

Mike,
I'm sure glad you worked safely through it. There must have been more than a dozen times where I have departed from Polly Ranch (SE Houston) between 6:30 and 8 am with good VFR reported and expected all the way to College Station (NE of Houston) only to encounter conditions like you found somewhere between Sugarland and College Station.

Click to expand...

Ha, my one accidental foray into IFR was coming out of College Station 5 years ago or so. We were headed back to Ellington one Sunday morning following an A&M loss to Army. AWOS was fine, but the haze was beginning to develop as I taxied out. Got cleared for TO, launched and hit a 200' thick layer at about 700' AGL. On the gauges, then off when we broke clear. I informed the tower that the field was IFR. ;-)

It is so easy

Unfortunately it is all to easy to end up in the "clag" I nearly did it on a nav exercise many years ago while still training. A low overcast and not being absolutely sure where I was resulted in me with my eyes on the map, a gentle bit of unintended back pressure on the stick and when I looked up there I was just starting to run through the bottom of the cloud. Another few seconds and I would have been in the cloud. Not a good place for a trainee pilot to be. Never made that mistake again!

Thanks for all the feedback.
I think the best answer so far was, "check the TAF dummy". "The guys writing those things are smarter than you." And "Just because your home field is reporting okay conditions does not mean 50mi down the road is the same."

This is all true. At RV speeds I forget that 50mi is still a x-country. And a 2-deg temp/dew point spread is a sign to watch out.

Yep, need to finish the IFR.

Any more feedback, stories and information are still appreciated.

Side note; the p-mag tests yielded 161kts TAS @ 8.8gph. This is on a 150hp RV-6A. With slicks it was the same speed but at near 10gph.

Range

It's good to think about what happened to you and what decisions you made or could have made.
Don't forget you had three hours fuel and could have flown on top most likely to somewhere clear. Good job getting down safely.

Thanks for sharing your experience ...

It is instructive and thought provoking to those of us without an instrument rating. I especially appreciate the idea of having a "personal minimum" for DB/DP spread.

Skew-T diagrams

I agree with the statements about the value of an IFR ticket in providing additional options for dealing with weather. Some additional things to consider:

1) IFR capability does not guarantee an option to land when low clouds form, so it's by no means a "get out of jail free card". Fog can ruin your day.

2) Choosing another destination is probably the best option when fast forming clouds leave you stuck on top. In a 100mph airplane, it might not be feasible, but in an RV, you could easily outrun the advancing weather and find a safe VFR landing site. Be wary of "get-back-home-itis, which I think is the most dangerous form of "get-there-itis".

3) get familiar with Skew-T diagrams and "RUC soundings", and make them part of your preflight weather briefing. This information unlocks many mysteries in weather phenomena that affect pilots, including fog, turbulence, thunderstorms, and icing.

M

Mike D said:

I have to get to work and I don’t need a hazy landing”.

Click to expand...

Biggest issue. No you do not HAVE to get to work. What if you have two options: Late to work or dead. Which is better?

Diving through a hole is a cloud may put you on a collision course with others.

An autopilot (particularly wing leveler) can get you out of this predicament under suitable caveats.

Flying to a clear airport TBD miles away is also acceptable (See biggest issue above).

Since you have had time to think about it, what would you do if this happened again exactly as it did before up to the point of clouds rapidly forming.

Hummmm, good question.
Well Ron, there are really several questions there.

If it were tomorrow, I would check the weather better including the TAF for the area. If the temp/dew pt spread was over 5-deg and the TAF called for good conditions, i would go, but I would carry my cell phone. If TAF called for deteriorating conditions (like it did that day), I would not launch.

If it was 2-3 months from now, the same as above, but I would know my available nav and comm systems better. I need to learn the GRT map functions a little better. I also need to know how to access all the info for frequency and airport info included in the 496.

If it were a year from now, I would hope to have the IFR ticket, and I would still go. I would use the thin layer for fun and staying current.

Now, if I went back in time and already had made the bad decision to go, and i was in the exact situation with the same knowledge I had at that time, I would do exactly as I had done. I knew the area. I knew the cloud bases, and I knew where the nearest airport was. I did a controlled but rapid descent.

The alternative was to stay on top and wait it out. But I had no way of knowing how long it would last. It could have ended with me being that VFR guy who has to shoot an IFR approach. I don't like that option.

If I had to go through the layer, it would have been me declaring an emergency, the RNAV approach programed into the GPS, the autopilot on, and following the HITS to the runway.

If anyone has an alternative opinion, please let me learn from you.

I am not happy I let myself get into that situation, but I have learned something from it. (I think)

alternative

Mike D said:

The alternative was to stay on top and wait it out. But I had no way of knowing how long it would last. It could have ended with me being that VFR guy who has to shoot an IFR approach. I don't like that option.
)

Click to expand...

Just wondering on your above solution; Of course only you can make the decision you feel is best for the circumstances you're in and from this armchair, you obviously made one of the right ones as you got down safely.

Why would you wait on top not knowing when or if the cloud would clear when you could have (I don't know what the surrounding weather was like so maybe that was not an option) just flown to another airport presumably under an hour's flying time away that was in the clear?

How long could you have waited on top if you set your airplane up for endurance? 5 hours 6? You mentioned 3 hours plus fuel and presumably that was at a cruise setting right?

I once did an IFR approach to CYSB airport at night, landed and was fueling up when fog started to drift in. (Not in the weather forecast) Checked the weather again and it was socking in everywhere it seemed. Alternate would have been to go way way up north. Waited there 3 days for the weather vis. to get above half a mile so we could take off (IFR), so sometimes flying somewhere else is not an option! You could have got on the radio and checked in your case though.

Thanks for posting.