Wind Shear: How Concerned Should I be

I am a relatively low time pilot (200 hours) and have never flown when wind shear was forecast. I am planning my second x-country in my RV-6A (just out of Phase I) tomorrow and Wind shear is forecasted. The surface wind forecast is 20015G23 with WS017 / 21054. I don't know how concerned I should be with this. How dangerous is this condition in an RV? I have already experienced some decent turbulence already. In fact, yesterday I got thrown into a steep up / banking attitude. Pretty scary when it happened. I pushed forward pretty hard to be sure that I didn't stall. I had never had turbulence do that to me before.

I know to be concerned with Vertical WS associated with convective activity and think that I understand it and it's potential affects. However, this is horizontal WS, associated with wind gradients.

I appreciate any guidance you can provide me on managing the WS risk.

Larry

lr172 said:

I am a relatively low time pilot (200 hours) and have never flown when wind shear was forecast. I am planning my second x-country in my RV-6A (just out of Phase I) tomorrow and Wind shear is forecasted. The surface wind forecast is 20015G23 with WS017 / 21054. I don't know how concerned I should be with this. How dangerous is this condition in an RV? I have already experienced some decent turbulence already. In fact, yesterday I got thrown into a steep up / banking attitude. Pretty scary when it happened. I pushed forward pretty hard to be sure that I didn't stall. I had never had turbulence do that to me before.

I know to be concerned with Vertical WS associated with convective activity and think that I understand it and it's potential affects. However, this is horizontal WS, associated with wind gradients.

I appreciate any guidance you can provide me on managing the WS risk.

Larry

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Ask your instructor. Gusty winds are more manageable in heavier aircraft (more inertia), but a 1000 lbs airplane get's tossed around quite a bit. If the winds are aligned with the runway and my plan is to travel to better conditions...maybe... Just know the takeoff and climb-out will not be fun. (unless you like to scare the **** out of yourself)

robimagu said:

Ask your instructor. Gusty winds are more manageable in heavier aircraft (more inertia), but a 1000 lbs airplane get's tossed around quite a bit. If the winds are aligned with the runway and my plan is to travel to better conditions...maybe... Just know the takeoff and climb-out will not be fun. (unless you like to scare the **** out of yourself)

Click to expand...

Funny two KAPA guys get to this first.

As Brian indicated above wind shear is a bizarre thing. We have it all the time at APA. The ability for the wind to abruptly change direction and velocity is not something that i would generally take likely. I can't speak for flying the RV in it because my airplanes is a pile of aluminum in my garage. However i have some experience with it in spam cans. Now mind you they are heavier and one might argue more stable then an RV.

The week of my private check ride i flew everyday to stay fresh until the big day.
Turns out that there was a low level windshear advisory every time i took off.

I was with my CFI of course and it turned out to be great practice and i was well prepared for my check ride. Windshear is not something that i think people need to be afraid of. Its something that demands respect and attention. I also can tell you that the parts of the year that I'm flying the most and my confidence is up because i may be getting 50 landings a week i worry less then when I'm only flying once a month. So it has to do a lot with how current you are and how good you feel on a CW landing. If you have no experience with wind shear and your flying seldom, set your personal limitations very low. It goes without saying, always be ready for a go around. Make sure you have a planned alternate airport that is not to far and you have plenty of fuel on board. If you don't like the approach or if something happens to quick because of the wind simply go around. You have hours of go arounds in those tanks. When it comes time to land don't settle for a crappy approach. If it doesn't look good always go around. At 200 hours you know these things. I don't need to say them i know.

However, let me be clear. Im not advocating for you to put yourself in a dangerous situation. Im just simply stating that people i think that have never seen windshear tend to think its a dark mystical force that is going to knock them out of the sky. It can be managed as long as you are within your personal limitations. The second you get outside of your personal limit which can happen if weather changed your IQ may be cut in half and will cause even more issues.

If your going to try it for the first time alone without a cfi or experienced RV pilot then i would stay on the ground if the winds are gusting really bad. Ive come home from a flight and seen 25 gusting 30 with LLWS advisory. Those were some fun times! took 3 tries one day to get a 172 on the ground. On the flip side some days they call for it and you land just as the wind is not gusting and you have no problem at all.

Im sure you have heard this expression before.
"fly it into the chalks" Stay alert and be ready for anything.

Do you have access to a qualified RV pilot that can go with you and sit in the right seat? perhaps a CFI with lots of RV time? It never hurts to have some backup.
Use good judgment and fly safe.

Just my 2 cents but please don't let any comments here persuade you to do something your not feeling up to.

How far did you want to go?

Knowing where you are and what happens this time of year, I might go today, but not far, and not tomorrow.

While it is not an approved flight planning tool, look at windy.com at 1000' and click the forecast action arrow on bottom left. Today is calm (relatively) but tomorrow it looks like 36 MPH from the north at 1000'. Even if "wind shear" is not defined with that speed it will tumble some over the ground. Read = rough ride, and gusty near ground.

On the bright side you could set some new ground speed records.

Good Luck

Shear

It once hit me so strongly on short final had I not firewalled the throttle we would have slammed into the ground. Suvivable I think, with good seat cushions...but the plane would have been a mess.

Risk mitigation

That's what it's all about - risk mitigation.

I'm a 10,000 hour pilot, with 1500 in light aircraft and 300 in RVs. I doubt I'd go anywhere with 15G23. Mostly because it's just not any fun in a RV. But that's just me.

As you know, getting off the ground is pretty easy in just about anything, but sooner or later you have to land. Those conditions are going to make for a rough flight. Can you get above the turbulence for cruise?

And the landing. When I go cross country I familiarize myself with several nearby airports near my destination. I find runways with different orientations. If my destination is gusting to 25K and I don't like the crosswind component, I go to another option where the wind is more oriented to the runway.

ALWAYS LEAVE YOURSELF AN OUT! Sometimes that out means not opening the hangar door.

I'm not trying to scare you. Not trying to say you shouldn't do it. Just make sure the risk is reasonable, and you've minimized the hazards.

Jim

I was lined up for a long final with high moutains to my right and nothing but flat land below and to my left.
Suddenly, the plane's right wing and nose lifted up and I started to go down.
I followed my training and "aggressively" pushed the nose forward and gave her full throttle. Fixed that problem (but that ruined my final and I had to enter the pattern to get her down).
Another time I was on base with the Rockies ahead of me.
I heard for the first time these words in my headphones 'TERRAIN, PULL UP, PULL UP".Of course, pulling up when you are doing about 65 knots of so is no solution.
The wind from the mountains (10 miles away ahead of me) were pushing me down.
Again, full power in base.
Full power in final.
I landed like a Navy pilot at full power over runway.
I mentioned all this to a ramp rat and he said "yeah, the wind here is fierce. See that 172 over there? The wind pushed the plane forward but the wings stayed tied down and the plane came apart."
OK. So mountain flying is a bit more complex eh?

I think this brings up a very interesting topic actually.

Risk mitigation was mentioned above and that is right-on IMHO

Here is another thought

You have to decide what type of environment you want to put yourself in.

Are you looking for a training environment or are you looking for a sunday cruise.

when talking about training the problem is that to many CFI,s IMHO will not allow a student to actually train. Even though we all hold ratings i still consider myself a student of aviation everyday. You will always learn something new.

However, once the learning stops you will digress. Say for example you never tackle wind shear in a training environment. Chances are some day you will be flying along and be forced to land in it having never seen it. Could be a bigger problem then it should be.
To many instructors will not allow students out of a comfort zone and that hinders their ability to learn. How are we to send a student pilot on a solo if we won't let him practice crosswind landings. What happens when he takes off and the winds pick up. Now I'm obviously exaggerating here to prove a point but this is the same situation. If you never take off in gusty winds you will someday get caught with your pants down trying to get in somewhere and not have the training. The same goes for windshear. If you don't get the training on it appropriately and have never seen it what happens when you get stuck with it?

Now the above comments are strictly when saying to yourself "ok I'm taking off today for a training flight" either with or without a CFI or another qualified individual. I have an airline captain friend of mine nearly 40 years in the left seat that always trys to encourage me to try new things (to a certain limit) of course because you need to learn how to handle situations in a controlled environment before you find yourself in the conditions alone.


On the flip side, before you take off, your mission is a nice cruise on sunday afternoon. That is a different story. Just like SMRACER said below. Why take off if you don't have to? Why force a bad situation. Taking off in 20 gusting 30 is never comfortable. The risk is up and its generally an unpleasant flight.

Just the other day i was watching a you tube video from a channel called Mr aviation. This kid drives me nuts somedays. He makes great videos but sometimes his judgment needs reworking i think. I believe he is an embry riddle student and a someday airline pilot. He constantly takes off in an older carbed 172 in less then ideal conditions just for the **** of it.

I watched a video the other day titled "Night IMC in the rain"
He is flying a non autopilot carbed steamed gauged 172 from the 1970,s
ummmmmmmmm yea the risk just went way way way up. No thanks. Ill take a hotel please. Another one that makes me cringe is this kid shooting approaches to minimums. Why take the risk?
Why put yourself in that position right? We are not flying an airbus here for air carrier service. We are not on a schedule. Can the plane do it? Sure, but is it worth the risk. Only you can decide when to take off, but just like others have said, landings are mandatory.

I am not concerned with the gusting. 15G23 is somewhat common for this airport this time of year and I have landed in it several times. Not really fun, but manageable. I have landed in as much as 18G25. A bit bumpy and I notice that I can't be timid on pushing the nose down when airspeed drops, but I haven't had real problems. I would be concerned if these were x-winds, but when 20-30* off the nose, they haven't been a real problem for me.

My concern was the wind shear. It seems that the wind direction is not much different and is mostly a speed differential. THey are also calling for it to be at 2000 AGL, so hoping it wouldn't impact my landing too much. Does the WS really just feel like gusting or were the concerns posted above about the 15G23?

Thanks for the guidance here.

larry

lr172 said:

My concern was the wind shear. It seems that the wind direction is not much different and is mostly a speed differential. THey are also calling for it to be at 2000 AGL, so hoping it wouldn't impact my landing too much. Does the WS really just feel like gusting or were the concerns posted above about the 15G23?

Thanks for the guidance here.

larry

Click to expand...

I may be wrong, but my understanding is that wind shear automatically implies a sudden change in wind direction with a change in altitude.
Sudden changes in velocity but from the same or similar direction is just gusty conditions

rvbuilder2002 said:

I may be wrong, but my understanding is that wind shear automatically implies a sudden change in wind direction with a change in altitude.
Sudden changes in velocity but from the same or similar direction is just gusty conditions

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You are correct. It is the sudden loss of energy that is the hazard. The RVs are good performers and that will help. Would not want to hit windshear in a c172 at max gross on a hot day.I personally would carry some extra speed on final as added insurance.

It really is an individual thing. Some folks love the challenge, others don't want to take a chance. If you are low time and not sure, perhaps wait untill you have more experience so that you are more sure of your limitations and your airplane's performance capabilities.

Altitude is Key

Wind shear at altitude is one thing. Close to the ground is quite another. Check the report, a report of shear at 2000 feet means you should be prepared for some turbulence and carry some extra speed on your approach to compensate if a headwind quickly turns into a tailwind.

Personally, wind shear above 2000' AGL means nothing more than seating the flight attendants, or consoling my wife, early!

lr172 said:

I am a relatively low time pilot (200 hours) and have never flown when wind shear was forecast. I am planning my second x-country in my RV-6A (just out of Phase I) tomorrow and Wind shear is forecasted. The surface wind forecast is 20015G23 with WS017 / 21054. I don't know how concerned I should be with this. How dangerous is this condition in an RV? I have already experienced some decent turbulence already. In fact, yesterday I got thrown into a steep up / banking attitude. Pretty scary when it happened. I pushed forward pretty hard to be sure that I didn't stall. I had never had turbulence do that to me before.

I know to be concerned with Vertical WS associated with convective activity and think that I understand it and it's potential affects. However, this is horizontal WS, associated with wind gradients.

I appreciate any guidance you can provide me on managing the WS risk.

Larry

Click to expand...

Larry,

I'm also low-time (under 200 hours TT with about 40 in RV's). You're question is a really good one which has stimulated me to do research on the subject matter.

Here is a link I found that will provide some really good insight on your question:

WIND SHEER

https://www.faasafety.gov/files/gsl...7/FAA P-8740-40 WindShear[hi-res] branded.pdf

A quote from the text:

Effects of Wind Shear on Aircraft

In its many forms, wind shear can change a routine approach into an emergency recovery in a matter of seconds.
An aircraft is affected by the change in wind direction/velocity because the wind also changes the aircraft motion relative to the ground. We will look at the effects of wind shear on an aircraft and on pilot techniques for coping
with a shear situation.

I really appreciate the comments by Jim - SMRACER. That's awesome advise from a very experienced pilot.

Fly safe!

If the shear really is at 1700 ft as forecast, the shear itself shouldn't be a safety issue. There will be some turbulence, and airspeed changes, as the aircraft climbs or descends through the shear. A wind shear at low altitude is more of a concern, because it can lead to airspeed loss at low altitude, or significant turbulence at low altitude, both of which can be a problem during landing.

The strong wind above the shear could be a concern in mountainous terrain, but not a big deal in flat terrain.

Thanks for all of the replies here with experience shared. I really appreciate it. First fo recast is now at 2000' with almost no direction difference, just a 40 kit speed difference. It seems that most of the problems would be above pattern altitude.

Larry

lr172 said:

My concern was the wind shear. It seems that the wind direction is not much different and is mostly a speed differential. Does the WS really just feel like gusting or were the concerns posted above about the 15G23?Thanks for the guidance here.larry

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You are correct as WS creates a speed differential. At my airline for example we could not land with a plus or minus airspeed change of greater than 15 kts when WS is being reported. I have diverted twice as a result.

Info Resource

Larry,

You might be interested in reading the low-level windshear section of the all-weather operations chapter of the training manual posted over on the safety page (there is a link in the Transition Training Syllabus sticky at the top). There is some discussion on page 311 that may provide some more insight.

Fly safe and enjoy your RV!

Vac

Had to land in Lynchburg VA right near the shanandoah valley on a windy day, I needed fuel- it had been a reasonably smooth ride aloft and I was headed to DC

Direct crosswind, 14G32, in a tail wheel RV4- I earned my beer that day, had to do a takeoff after taking on fuel- in hindsight, I should have flown to an airport further away from the mountains

Real world experience

I had a very recent un-forecasted LLWS experience on a trip back to KAPA from Texas while crossing back into CO. Despite very smooth skies 2k' AGL, our intended fuel stop had surface winds at 24G36 at 80 degrees to the only runway. No thank you! I could see a storm building to the west so I presumed that was the culprit.

So we ventured on another 40 miles to an alternate fuel stop. Clear skies, light chop at 1k' AGL. ASOS was reporting winds at 15G22 about 30 degrees off centerline and about 70 degrees different than our winds aloft. This raised a red flag. Fuel was going to become an issue, so I made the approach. When we dropped below 500' on base leg (with a tailwind), all **** broke loose. The plane yawed 30-40 degrees off heading, banked 30 degrees, and I lost 15 knots in an instant. Thankfully, I had flown the pattern hot in anticipation of the sheer, but it was still an exciting condition to recover.

And this was without any forecast of LLWS! Now I really understand why, if they can forecast it, it shows up in the AIRMETS! Stay on the ground.