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Total Kits Sold?

TXFlyGuy

Well Known Member
How many total RV kits have been sold? We all know that over 10,000 are flying, but my real question is what's the actual completion rate? 70%, 80%, more, less?

Any kit manufacturer that enjoys a customer completion build rate to flying status of 50% or greater is doing quite well.
 
Question: how is completion rate objectively measured, given that some kits are still being actively worked on, some are in hibernation, some abandoned, some destroyed? Also given that not all kits sold have been complete kits?
 
I would be very interested in this as well although I suspect it's a metric Van's would prefer to keep under wraps for fear of putting people of their goal.
 
It would be interesting to know the numbers by kit
Tail
Wing
Fuselage
Finishing

That would give a general indication of where projects die. I'm sure tail kit numbers are significantly higher than the rest.
 
My curiosity stems from the metrics of general homebuilt kit planes, and how many succeed in completion, and how many simply give up, abandon the project, or even die before completion.

My guess is the RV world has a high percentage of flying kits, vs. total kits sold.

Another very small niche market kit company has just over 50% of sold kits flying. That actually is a pretty good number, I would think.

For Van’s, it would be bragging rights. They could state (for example) that 80% of kits sold to date are completed, and in flying status. That would be huge.
 
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It is easy enough to figure out with a reasonable bit of accuracy.

Get recent "starters" of each kit to post their serial number. That'll give you an estimate of the number of tail kits started for each model. Divide the completions by that number...
 
How many total RV kits have been sold? We all know that over 10,000 are flying, but my real question is what's the actual completion rate? 70%, 80%, more, less?

Any kit manufacturer that enjoys a customer completion build rate to flying status of 50% or greater is doing quite well.

This has all really been discussed before ad infinitum. The archives are your friend here. There?s two issues and they are both entirely different propositions and not to be confused.

Firstly there?s the completion rate simply as a ratio of kits sold. That?s likely to be quite high for most large volume kit manufacturers depending on the complexity of the model and the availability of quick build kits. My best guess (and it?s only a guess...but in the absence of any concrete data from Vans my guess is as good as anybody?s :)) probably 90% of Vans kits will eventually fly.

Secondly there?s the completion rate by the person who actually initially buys a tail kit and goes on to finish the entire aircraft himself. That percentage is likely to be much much lower. I did some simple statistics a few years back based on incomplete projects offered for sale on VansAirforce and concluded that only about 30% of people who buy a tail kit ever get the plane into the air. The majority of people just can?t get the job done for one reason or another....lack of perseverance....lack of money...lack of time...lack of appreciation of the magnitude of the task etc etc. But at some reduced price every incomplete kit ultimately represents good value on the market and hence finds a new wannabe builder. And so they keep changing hands...sometimes once...sometimes several times. Eventually most will finally be completed...but often not by the person who bought the original empennage kit.

When builders toss in the towel for one reason or another they don?t just leave a half built aircraft sitting in their garage...they flog it off for whatever they can get for it. At some price point it always finds a new home. And so it goes.

But the fact that a Vans model might ultimately have a 90% completion rate is not that relevant to a prospective builder. What is relevant is the 30% completion rate by the original builder. That?s the number that truly tells you what your chances are of being successful when starting from scratch.
 
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Just me

I bet if you look at number of finishing kits sold, this would be a good estimate. I think that is the last ?mandatory? kit.
 
Completion

A good estimate of what ??? If Vans would provide that data, which they would not, what would it really tell you.

It would give a very good indication of planes that will be completed. I figure once the finishing kits are bought, then either the original builder or a cheap friend would most likely finish it given all the investment the builder made to date.
 
It would give a very good indication of planes that will be completed. I figure once the finishing kits are bought, then either the original builder or a cheap friend would most likely finish it given all the investment the builder made to date.

I would suggest that the ultimate completion rate of all of the popular prepunched aluminium kits (Vans, Zenith, Sonex etc) would be very high. Eventually most of them will get completed...but they may have to pass through several hands to get there. At any stage of partial completion a project has dollar value and can be on-sold (usually at a loss). There is always someone waiting to pick up a bargain if the price is keen enough. But what does that tell you....nothing.

What ab initio builders really want to know is: What are the chances that I (me) will be able to start this project and finish it myself ? Success is not about some one else finishing your half built project after you've bombed out and taken a financial battering on it.
 
When I had finished building and then test flew my 7A, a retired FedEx pilot a couple hanger spaces down from me came up and said "I want to shank your hand and congratulate you." I said thanks and he told me that only 15% of people that start a project like building a plane actually finish it to the stages of being able to fly it. I don't know where his numbers came from. BTW, he has built not one but two airplanes and flew them.
 
I thought about it for a minute and said nah..... Buy and let someone else take a bath on his investment!
 
I don't have any specific #'s to share regarding total kits sold... possibly Greg does and will post them here.

Based on close involvement in the RV community for many years, I believe the completion rate is well North of 15%. I think it could conservatively be stated that 50+% of projects started (purchased an empenage kit) eventually end up a completed airplane, though not always completed by the original purchaser. This is particularly true with the newer pre-punched kits, and particularly so with the next generation RV kits (10, 12, and 14)

I have heard unofficial estimates in the past guessing that there is as many emp kits not yet registered as part of a completed RV, as there are RV's flying (so somewhere in the neighborhood of 10,000). A lot of those are associated with active projects that are just not yet finished. Unfortunately there are also a lot of emp. kits out in the world just collecting dust. I think this is more common with the older models than the new.
The answer to the question of how many?, is anyone's guess.

Because of the much higher $$$ investment, wing kit delivery #'s are considered more the benchmark for how many of a particular model will eventually get completed.
 
Scott, I agree with you 15% seemed low. I figured my friend must have meant by the original purchaser. Let's face it though.... building a flyable aircraft is a huge undertaking. I've never started anything in my life that I didn't finish. With that said I'll admit I was initially overwhelmed when my kit arrived and had the thought of THIS TIME, I may have really bit off more than I can chew. Then my deceased fathers words kept coming back to me.... you eat a whole pie one bite at a time.
 
With that said I'll admit I was initially overwhelmed when my kit arrived and had the thought of THIS TIME, I may have really bit off more than I can chew. Then my deceased fathers words kept coming back to me.... you eat a whole pie one bite at a time.

Yea, when I built my first RV-6A 30 years ago, I had those feelings every time I opened the crate for each of the four kit sections.
 
you eat a whole pie one bite at a time.


Building an airplane is more like eating a whole elephant, one bite at a time...:rolleyes:


I'm 3/4 through it, I think...
Belly full for today...
Back at it Monday for another feast !!!
 
I own a tail kit that will never fly. I bought a partially completed RV-9 tail, then decided the quality was questionable on the assembly so I bought a new tail kit and started from there. I made out on the deal, since I also got about $2500 worth of tools in addition to the tail kit for just $500!
Deals are out there if you look for them.
 
I have a tail kit that will probably never become an airplane either. Construction is good, just found a more complete aircraft kit instead to finish.

I would imagine if you looked at serial #'s of some of the latest kits sold would give an indication of serial #'s.
 
For those who are truly interested in understanding more about their chances of completing an RV build from scratch I highly recommend the following two VansAirforce threads. I very much doubt that anything in this thread will add further insight or anything of statistical significance to these previous threads.

The first one is from 2012 and is probably the benchmark on this topic. Go here:

http://www.vansairforce.com/community/showthread.php?t=81134


The second one is the precursor from 2007 and also well worth a read. Go here:

http://www.vansairforce.com/community/showthread.php?t=16284
 
To shirt tail earlier comments, a good friend bought an RV kit, got about a third of the way through the build, and decided to call it quits. He sold it to a person from South America.

Another friend, and tool sales person, has an RV sitting in his hangar. Been there for years. Collecting dust. Will it ever fly? Maybe, probably not.

I'll bet that these two examples are the rule, rather than the exception.

The more I talk with individuals, the situation today is everybody wants a kit airplane (fill in your favorite model), and they want it flying now. Very few want to put in the time and effort to do a "hands on" build.

As we all know, the task of building a kit plane is monumental. RV's are perhaps the easiest to complete. But that does not make them easy. And all of you know what I mean. It takes time, patience, money, a highly developed skill set, an understanding wife, plus some extra help along the way.

Thus the rise in builder assist programs at independent shops. It is my understanding that you can have $200,000 wrapped up in your airplane when going down this path. Just don't tell the wife.....

The main thrust of this thread was not to determine any one's odds of success, but rather to get a handle on total kits sold to date (June, 2020), and total completed airworthy kits to date. Of course, those numbers are dynamic and change daily. 50% seems like a pretty good guess.
 
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A friend of mine is approaching his 12th year "on the job", he's close to flying but watching the last few months has been painful, so close yet in some ways seems still far away! Me takes me hat off to anyone that completes the kit themselves! :)
 
My perspective

I went the easy route, built an RV-14 quick build. Gave myself two years. It took two years. At the 90% done, 90% to go mark, it bogged down a little. But then I pushed thru. Wings went on June 29, first ?smoke test? August 8, first engine start August 17, airworthiness inspection and certification August 24th just short of two years from receipt of empennage kit. My friends are mostly flying RVs and four are building and all will complete. One is hanging his engine today on his -10. Another is completing a third-hand 4 and re-doing most of it. About a year out working on it when he can. Two others are building -14A?s. One of them is a serial offender. I don?t know anyone who has one rotting away in the dark, so my impression is that a LOT get completed. There are many RVs at my airport that have been flying for many years, some with second or third owners; none collecting dust.
 
Based on all of the responses here, I'll hazard a guess that most kits (pick manufacturer here) eventually get finished, and flying.

That is as long as the kit manufacturer remains in business, and does not leave customers high and dry. Jim Stewart (Stewart Mustang) had a nice product. Then he went belly up, very quickly. Many, many unhappy kit owners.

Any manufacturer can claim that all kits eventually get airworthy, and will be flying. Perhaps not by the original person who made the purchase, however.
 
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