What's new
Van's Air Force

Don't miss anything! Register now for full access to the definitive RV support community.

RV build success rate.

Sam Buchanan said:
Most non-aviation people who find out I build airplanes (and actually fly them!!) think I'm a nut........
Click to expand...

I think a lot of us can relate to that! For me and maybe I'm different, but it was almost motivational. I had several friends and family tell me that I would never finish or that they would never fly in a plane that I built in my garage. The neat thing is most of those people are my biggest supporters now, and have even flown in my plane. The other side of the coin is I had a lot of supports from the RV community, while I was building and couldn't have done it with out them.

Most of the people I have meant, flown with, and built with, in the RV community have all been pretty savvy with their finances. Most of them could be categorized as conservative with their finances. I think you have to be with a project like this or you're adding a big hurdle to finishing. That?s not to say it wasn't a big investment, and if times did get difficult it would be one of the first things to go. I think life and projects like this are a balance, along with persistence.
 
I was about to state the same thing. I have found nobody that actually thinks it might be a cut above their couch life by the TV, shooting unarmed animals, and running the bars. It seems to be viewed as an aberation, somethig done by people that are not fortunate enough to know how to watch TV. If I were to quit, most all would think I "finally woke up to reality". My wife never mentions it to anyone, kinda like as if I boinked sheep for a pastime or such.

Sam Buchanan said:
Most non-aviation people who find out I build airplanes (and actually fly them!!) think I'm a nut........
Click to expand...
 
David, I'll add to your list...

comfortcat said:
It would be interesting to have a list of startup motivators and look at success/failure rate with those. For example, here is my list:

Reason to start = Chance of completion
============= ==================
Save money over production = Poor
Want to fly cheap = Poor
Impress others = Poor
Enjoy building = Good
Social event = Good
Like to make stuff = Good
etc.

Dkb
Click to expand...

Like to challenge your self = Good
Like to learn new stuff = Good

Kent
 
Building a Plane?

When I started building my 8 I did not have a Plane a PPL or Money. Now,,, I still dont have any money :)
 
Exceptional people here

DonFromTX said:
I was about to state the same thing. I have found nobody that actually thinks it might be a cut above their couch life by the TV, shooting unarmed animals, and running the bars. It seems to be viewed as an aberation, somethig done by people that are not fortunate enough to know how to watch TV. If I were to quit, most all would think I "finally woke up to reality". My wife never mentions it to anyone, kinda like as if I boinked sheep for a pastime or such.
Click to expand...

Hahaha! I know what you mean, when people find out about my aerobatic history I get the same looks, when I started building my Pitts 12, the looks got worse! I think some people truly wondered why my wife didn't have me committed!

I couldn't help but think of the "Show us your day job" thread after reading this. I am humbled and awed by the people on this site, and though nowhere near as accomplished as most, I am still proud to be a part of such a group that most of the world likely considers as having something inherently wrong with them!

Build on!:D

Damon
 
Danny7 said:
I would take that bet...

.
Click to expand...

I just watched an AeroTVnetwork interview with Gus Funnell of Vans Aircraft recorded in December 2009. He said at that time that Vans were selling "roughly 600 empennage kits per year". I think we can assume that in the current economic climate that figure has not increased by much, if at all, and may have decreased.

At any rate the observable numbers for abandoned RV project sales and for new RV kit deliveries seem to be remarkably similar at approx 600 per annum. This indicates that the average RV will be abandoned by approx 1.0 builders before it is completed.

Of course some aircraft will be completed by the original builder. What that means is that the remainder will be abandoned by more than 1.0 builders.
 
Captain Avgas said:
I just watched an AeroTVnetwork interview with Gus Funnell of Vans Aircraft recorded in December 2009. He said at that time that Vans were selling "roughly 600 empennage kits per year". I think we can assume that in the current economic climate that figure has not increased by much, if at all, and may have decreased.

At any rate the observable numbers for abandoned RV project sales and for new RV kit deliveries seem to be remarkably similar at approx 600 per annum. This indicates that the average RV will be abandoned by approx 1.0 builders before it is completed.

Of course some aircraft will be completed by the original builder. What that means is that the remainder will be abandoned by more than 1.0 builders.
Click to expand...

where do you get your numbers for "abandoned" kits, and how do you take into account kits that have that happen numerous times?
 
I'm definitely one of the nuts!!

This is such an interesting [and sometimes disturbing] discussion. At this stage of my life I dont have a PPL, don't really have age on my side (63 :eek:) and haven't even ordered the empennage kit, although I do have the preview plans for my intended 9A build project. So what are you thinking :confused: I hear you ask?? Well, flying is something I have always wanted to do but for one reason or another "life" always had different ideas, marriage, setting up home, kid, schooling, business ups and downs etc. etc. I'm sure most of us have had the same obstacles to overcome!! Then a couple of years ago my cousin got his MPL and purchased a Microlight at the tender age of 60. That really got me going - if he could do it so could I but "life" still got in the way for a while :mad:. And then the unthinkable happened, I went for a ride in a friends RV6 and that was me sold! We've flown together a number of times since and I was fortunate enough to be able to assist him with his annual inspection which was great fun, most informative and only confirmed my interest.
Why a 9A?? Well, I'll be a real "low time" pilot at a "high time" age so I figured that getting airborn, keeping the blue side up, heading in the right direction and landing safely back on earth would be enough of a challenge so I didn't really need to confuse myself anymore by flying upside down or anything like that, besides, the 9A is a little more forgiving and by all accounts will give me a plane to do what I would like to do when the building is finally completed, that is, relatively short VFR trips to some of the spectacular destinations that my wife and I haven't yet seen in our own country. So, whats the next step?? Tomorrow I am going for my aviation medical, the outcome of that will determine whether this "dream" can become a reality or not. I am presently sorting out the area where the "airplane factory" is going to located, which is fortunately about 15 metres from my kitchen door. And after that - place the order for the Empennage Kit, invite all my local friends to come and visit (and bring their work clothes along!!), inform my son that "pay back" time has arrived and the old man now needs some help, put my head down and try and make sure I don't become one of the "gave up" statistics!!
In doing so I'm sure I'll enjoy every minute of the building process and also learn to fly safely in the time that it takes to complete the project. And of course, continue to make new international RV friends and benefit from all the outstanding advice on offer on this amazing forum.
 
Hi Kevin.

You're going about things in a logical, progressive order that makes good sense.

If I were a betting man, I'd take a bet on you finishing the project, just from the sound of things.

Regards, from a South African/Rhodesian ex-pat..geluk!
 
Fit to Fly

pierre smith said:
You're going about things in a logical, progressive order that makes good sense.

If I were a betting man, I'd take a bet on you finishing the project, just from the sound of things.

Regards, from a South African/Rhodesian ex-pat..geluk!
Click to expand...

Baie Dankie Pierre .. I dont want to hijack the thread so just a quick update, as of this morning I am now the proud owner of a little [expensive] piece of paper that says "Aviation Medical Certificate" :) I guess it's a start!!
 
What Does It Take?

I was 62 years old when I started building my -8A. The wife repeatedly told me she would never fly in the thing (and hasn't - but she travels to Europe several times a year in order to match the gas money fun factor). I had never riveted or fiberglassed and new almost nothing about engines. And while some may think this is a good deal - I had almost $100K saved over many years for the project - it ain't necessarily true - if $ aren't a pressing issue, one tends to buy airplane stuff one really doesn't need. - but seems really useful at the time of purchase.

6 1/2 years later I have a wonderful magic carpet. Not by any means a show plane - and suffered a lot of mistakes in construction - built an amazing magic carpet.

One mystery to me: even many aviation nuts who admire my plane and wish they had one, say they could never build one. Not because of lack of technical skills but because they can't visulize themselves having the perserverance to finish.

Some of thease folks are searching for something to do. How do I convince them that several thousand small manageable mostly enjoyable steps will someday produce an airplane?
 
pvalovich said:
How do I convince them that several thousand small manageable mostly enjoyable steps will someday produce an airplane?
Click to expand...

Sounds like you already have the best argument figured out.

Compare it to something they already do------learning to fly, or play golf or their career dtc.
 
Resurrecting an old thread that gathered much interest and looking for any new insight on the original question. What percent of folks who begin an RV build go on to finish it themselves? (Not asking how many projects are eventually completed by someone). Also, since we are 2 years further down the road with the RV-12, what percentage of those original builders go on to finish? Is that percentage significantly higher than the other models?
 
I am guessing it is. Simplicity and speed of building makes it seem closer to the finish when you are just starting. Have you noticed in the classifieds that there is almost never one for sale? (I have been watching for a new one to finish, since mine is almost done)
 
diamond said:
. Also, since we are 2 years further down the road with the RV-12, what percentage of those original builders go on to finish? Is that percentage significantly higher than the other models?
Click to expand...

I don't have any data to support this but at an intuitive level based on my own observations as a TC I would say that the completion rate of RV12s (by the original builder) would be considerably higher than for any other RV model.

I base my opinion on the following facts:

1. The RV12 is the most developed kit in that it requires less fabrication of components thus greatly reducing the number of hours required to complete it. Seeing parts go together quickly is more likely to keep a builder motivated

2. An RV12 can be fabricated with a lesser skill set than that required for the other RV models. For instance you require no riveting skills because it uses virtually all pulled rivets.

3. The RV12 requires significantly less two-up operations, once again due to having pulled rivets. There's not much on an RV12 that a builder cannot do on his own.

4. The RV12 is the most complete kit in that Vans provides virtually everything needed to get the aircraft into the air together with clear and comprehensive instructions about assembly of every system. This means the model is very close to plug and play. Unlike the other models, I see very few RV12s with any serious modifications to Van's plans. Vans makes it so easy by providing everything ready to instal that builders have a massive incentive to stick with Van's drawings.

5. Purchasers of RV12s have a much greater idea of the financial implications of the build than builders of the other models. That is because virtually everything required to fly, including the engine, prop, and avionics is supplied as part of the RV12 kit and is therefore known up front. Builders of other models often have no up-front idea of the true cost of finishing their aircraft and consequently often overshoot their financial capacity.

This is not answering the initial question but here is another observation I have made about RV12s as an aircraft judge.....they are typically of a much more consistent quality of construction than any other RV model. This reflects the fact that the RV12 is more about assembly than it is about fabrication. For instance when you have prepunched holes filled with pulled rivets (and no dimpling) the difference between good and not-so-good skills tends to evaporate.
 
You've hit the nail on the head for the -12 Bob, although there are many more conventional rivets than you might think, and dimpling is no mystery to -12 builders either. I think original completions for the RV-14 will also be higher than the other models for many of the same reasons.
 
Numbers for the RV12 completed!

The RV12 kit was first released at Sun & Fun April 2008. Current numbers are 800 serial numbers issued and 300 of those are flying. That's a 37% (+-5% error) completion rate in 5 years 9 months. Or approx 50 completions per year.;)
But as stated in the previous post the RV12 is unique in its construction that helps the completion rate significantly. The RV14 is following in its footsteps. It probably began with the RV10.
Better step by step plans.
No decisions to be made, totally compete kit, ready to go fly when completed.
Ever heard of over analyze paralyzed.
Lots of prefab like holes drilled to exact size.
Pop rivets much less labor to install.
No wet wings, only one fuel tank which is removable.
Mostly a one person build, meaning you hardly ever need another person to help. I know that is the way it is for the other kits to but this one is much better.
Best for last,:D when finished its super cheap to operate, 2pax, 120 kts IAS, 5gals per hour premium unleaded or about $18 per hour in fuel cost.
This is Vans first factory built airplane to sell to the public. This means that the airplane is evolving constantly like a car becoming a better and better product as well as setting a base value for resale.;)
The above is a winning formula for future new kit releases.
 
diamond said:
Resurrecting an old thread that gathered much interest and looking for any new insight on the original question. What percent of folks who begin an RV build go on to finish it themselves? (Not asking how many projects are eventually completed by someone). Also, since we are 2 years further down the road with the RV-12, what percentage of those original builders go on to finish? Is that percentage significantly higher than the other models?
Click to expand...

The 12 is a stand out in this regard. Now with factory sanctioned production in full swing it will be interesting to see how this affects kit sales. Since Synergy Air is not Vans owned,are there kit sales counted on the Vans meter? As to the original question posted 1/10/12 some two years later 8543 completed with the RV6 way out in front, followed by the RV4 with the RV7 and RV8 in hot pursuit.There is no question these kits are desirable and have value.Original builders do complete them.If all gos well within a few years (5) beyond that the odds go down.I know in my case life at times has stacked everything against it and then pushed hard. I may never finish my build "I may not get there with you!" understand "From my cold dead hands!" you may acquire my project and finish it. For some its an easy process for others its one rivet at a time.
 
DonFromTX said:
Have you noticed in the classifieds that there is almost never one for sale? (I have been watching for a new one to finish, since mine is almost done)
Click to expand...

Checking the Vans Classifieds for the last 30 days (only 30 days available) reveals the following abandoned projects for sale:

RV3 0
RV4 2
RV6(A) 1
RV7(A) 4
RV8(A) 5
RV9(A) 3
RV10 1
RV12 0
Total 16

During the same period the following flying RVs came up for sale:

RV3 1
RV4 3
RV6(A) 2
RV7(A) 3
RV8(A) 0
RV9(A) 3
RV10 1
RV12 0
Total 13

Thirty days is only a small sample but it is interesting that no RV12 projects came up for sale in that period. That seems to substantiate what Don is saying. It's also interesting that more abandoned RV projects are being offered for sale than completed aircraft. That would seem to substantiate an earlier hypothesis I made in this thread that the average RV changes hands at least once before it is completed.
 
I have three friends who have however purchased RV 12 not completed planes. It seems they sell thru a different media, word of mouth mostly I think, maybe moreso than the other models..
 
I think to really get a handle on what percentage are completed, we could look at the number sold, then see the number flying. That is going to be somewhat short of the final figure, but if we knew the number sold, say three years ago, it might be close. Since there haven't been any RV-6s sold in a few years, those the number sold and completed might give a good estimate. Like everyone else, I believe the 12 is going to be a special case, and higher than the others. I would guess that the 10 might be a high percentage, although taking a longer time frame. I would think the 3 would rank high also, because they seem to be purchased by repeat offenders. I would guess that the 4, 6, 7, 8 and 9 would all be close, and lower than the others. Personally, I really don't care. I bought one, and it is flying. The Eagle's Nest Projects will all fly, or so I believe. I would bet there will be 6s completed 25 years from now, but many of us won't be around to count...

Bob
 
Captain Avgas said:
Thirty days is only a small sample but it is interesting that no RV12 projects came up for sale in that period. That seems to substantiate what Don is saying. It's also interesting that more abandoned RV projects are being offered for sale than completed aircraft. That would seem to substantiate an earlier hypothesis I made in this thread that the average RV changes hands at least once before it is completed.
Click to expand...

That is an interesting hypothesis and one that prompted me to think back to the ~30 RVs that have been completed in our local area over the past 15 years. I could only recall three that were completed by someone other than the original owner.

I have no idea if that is a sample that has any value in this discussion, but locally very few kits have changed hands, and I can only think of 3-4 that I would consider now idle or "abandoned".
 
Last edited:
videobobk said:
I think to really get a handle on what percentage are completed, we could look at the number sold, then see the number flying. Bob
Click to expand...

Bob, this thread was not started by the OP to ascertain the percentage of RVs completed. It was started to discuss the percentage of RVs completed by the original purchaser (ie. the person who originally purchased the empennage from Vans). See my post 21 for clarification.
 
Sam Buchanan said:
That is an interesting hypothesis and one that prompted me to think back to the ~30 RVs that have been completed in our local area over the past 15 years. I could only recall three that were completed by someone other than the original owner.

I have no idea if that is a sample that has any value in this discussion, but locally very few kits have changed hands, and I can only think of 3-4 that I would consider now idle or "abandoned".
Click to expand...

Sam, I suspect that you are moving in a circle of builders who are probably more serious about their aviation and many may be chapter members with good support. People who are serious about aviation, as you obviously are, tend to gravitate towards others who are also serious about their aviation.

However your anecdotal experience is not reflected in the large number of abandoned projects coming up for sale on VansAirforce and so I do not think that your observation of 90% completion by the original builder (27 out of 30 aircraft) is likely to be anywhere near typical.

There's just a lot of people out there (but obviously not your friends) who simply wake up one morning and decide that it would be a good idea to buy a kit for a set of tail feathers and build an aircraft. For many it's just impulsive buying (seemed like a good idea at the time) without any real understanding of the task ahead or the money involved.

We live in an age of instant gratification where people have become used to purchasing upon a whim. But building an RV is a massive task and clearly a long way from instant gratification. Not surprisingly, the vast majority of abandoned projects appearing on VansAirforce comprise largely of empennage and wing kits in various stages of completion. The whimsical purchasers tend to drop out very quickly. The number of projects abandoned with an engine installed is a considerably lesser figure. Builders at a more advanced stage are much less likely to bail out. There could be many reasons for that. One of them will be the financial imperative. The financial loss in bailing out of an empennage is negligable. But bailing out of a project with an engine and possibly avionics installed is going to be very costly indeed.

I personally believe that the large number of RV projects changing hands results from the fact that many people who start building are not all that interested in the building process...they just want an RV to fly. When potential builders ask me if they should start an RV project I always say the same thing. If you want to build...then build. If you want to fly...then buy.

We also need to discuss what we mean by an "abandoned" project. This is a matter of semantics. When a builder decides he no longer wants to continue building a project, and decides to sell it, he is abandoning it...hence it becomes an abandoned project. That some-one else eventually decides to take over the project and complete it does not change the fact that it was abandoned in the first instance. From the Merriam Webster dictionary: Abandon: "to give up with the intent of never again claiming a right or interest in" ;)

I'm not sure where the completed empennage tied to the garage roof for 5 years gathering dust sits in the scheme of things. My guess is that it is not truly abandoned until one decides to flog it off. On the other hand if it sits for 20 years becoming a spider's nest in the attic...well I guess we could officially declare it abandoned. :D
 
Captain Avgas said:
Sam, I suspect that you are moving in a circle of builders who are probably more serious about their aviation and many may be chapter members with good support. People who are serious about aviation, as you obviously are, tend to gravitate towards others who are also serious about their aviation.

However your anecdotal experience is not reflected in the large number of abandoned projects coming up for sale on VansAirforce and so I do not think that your observation of 90% completion by the original builder (27 out of 30 aircraft) is likely to be anywhere near typical.
Click to expand...

I think this highlights the point Paul was making, but in reverse. Surrounding yourself with a community of previous builders / chapter members with good support is a great way to stack the odds in your favor.
 
I agree on the support theme;
I'm a memeber of EAA 326, Puyallup WA. We counted the RVs in the club, 76 I think!
Being a memeber certainly improved the odds for me!
There are 2 chapters closer to my home, but EAA 326 is the most active building group in the area, with strong RV representation.
So if you are suffering a lack of inspiration, attend some EAA chapter meetings.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top