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Airventure 2020

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mike newall

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As things seem to be spiralling downwards ever quicker, how long do we think before AirVenture pulls the plug ?

European airlines are looking at shutdowns through Summer now. Lufthansa just announced grounding until September, New York Oceanic airspace closed today !

My buddy is a Controller at Shanwick - normal daily traffic around 1200 airplanes...... Today - 258 !
 
As things seem to be spiralling downwards ever quicker, how long do we think before AirVenture pulls the plug ?

European airlines are looking at shutdowns through Summer now. Lufthansa just announced grounding until September, New York Oceanic airspace closed today !

My buddy is a Controller at Shanwick - normal daily traffic around 1200 airplanes...... Today - 258 !

Everyone can speculate, but in all reality it?s too early. I suspect that decision won?t be made until the May/June timeframe when better data is available.
 
Well, you can get Oshkosh 2020 T-shirts from EAA. I got an ad in email for these and thought they might become collectors items if the show doesn't happen.
 
EAA back to its roots..?

Let me see.....Without giants like Lufthansa, Airbus, or Boeing that could mean the Experimental Aircraft Association might just go back to concentrating on Experimental and GA aircraft...? A smaller, more focused group of Saturday morning airport guys without global aspirations, who just love planes, building, and hanging with their buds.......? ............................Well, wouldn't THAT be something.........!
 
Let me see.....Without giants like Lufthansa, Airbus, or Boeing that could mean the Experimental Aircraft Association might just go back to concentrating on Experimental and GA aircraft...? A smaller, more focused group of Saturday morning airport guys without global aspirations, who just love planes, building, and hanging with their buds.......? ............................Well, wouldn't THAT be something.........!

I'd love it, but "No bucks, no Buck Rogers." Honestly, the EAA has a huge overhead burden these days. It can't survive without the big contributions from the major players. That's the challenge of growth. At some point, the growth owns you, instead of you owning the growth.

My guess is that AirVenture 2020 isn't gonna happen. I hope I'm wrong.
 
I'd love it, but "No bucks, no Buck Rogers." Honestly, the EAA has a huge overhead burden these days. It can't survive without the big contributions from the major players. That's the challenge of growth. At some point, the growth owns you, instead of you owning the growth.

My guess is that AirVenture 2020 isn't gonna happen. I hope I'm wrong.

Agree 100%.
 
The question should be: can EAA survive if Oshkosh 20 is canceled?

I'm sure it can. The last time I went through the annual report, my takeaway was that Airventure was profitable, but not hugely profitable. Of course, you can make it look however you want depending on how you allocate overhead expenses. Still, I don't think the net impact will be overwhelming.
 
When this is all over Aviation will go on but it won't go on for all of us! This world changing event will change the economic face of the planet!
 
Forget about Airventure 2020...absolutely zero chance. Even 2021 may be in doubt. The Japanese have spent billions over many years preparing for the 2020 Olympic Games but the pin has been pulled on that.
 
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. . . This world changing event will change the economic face of the planet!
It certainly is doing that.

My math indicates the entire US population will be exposed by the end of April at the current rate of growth. Lots of unknowns yet, I am optimistic that medicines and vaccines (3-9 months), procedures, and PPE will be available to mitigate the rate increase and stretch to a manageable pace . . . while allowing reestablishment of commerce.

Airventure a toss up, but odds are against considering the time at which the decision needs to be made and that it is supposed to be fun. This will be some hard discussions for the EAA Team. Contingencies for those who show up anyway.:eek:
 
Don't forget that you need lots of work prior to the event. There are a lot of meetings and work parties that do a lot of prep work for the event that we all love. You can webex meetings, but you can't webex the grunt work.
 
It certainly is doing that.

My math indicates the entire US population will be exposed by the end of April at the current rate of growth. Lots of unknowns yet, I am optimistic that medicines and vaccines (3-9 months), procedures, and PPE will be available to mitigate the rate increase and stretch to a manageable pace . . . while allowing reestablishment of commerce.

Airventure a toss up, but odds are against considering the time at which the decision needs to be made and that it is supposed to be fun. This will be some hard discussions for the EAA Team. Contingencies for those who show up anyway.:eek:

Once everyone is exposed, it's over. Like any other virus, you can't get it twice. Sure, the virus may morph and change each annual cold season, as influenza does, affecting large populations, but that should be on the order of what we see with seasonal influenza today.

I simply don't see how this fundamentally changes our planet, beyond a somewhat larger seasonal death toll. I believe we lose close to a 1/4 million peopel to the flu each year.

Further, I just don't see our political leaders allowing the market carnage to continue much longer and seal their defeat come re-election time. I expect them to step in an push the states to re-open our econonmy, sooner rather than later. Trump is already talking about this publicly. If they allow this event to lead us into a recession, many will get tossed in November. Not saying it is the right thing to do or not, just that I think that is how they will behave.

Just another man's opinion.

Larry
 
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My bet is yes.

I think it will continue on. Oshkosh is a great outdoor even where social distancing could continue. They may have to modify forums, trams, busses and vendor hangars but everything else could continue as normal as I think it should.

I hope we see some really cool masks that make the event a cross between EAA and comic-con.

I have to go back no matter what. Don't know how I could two years without a Spotted Cow.
 
I simply don't see how this fundamentally changes our planet, beyond a somewhat larger seasonal death toll. I believe we lose close to a 1/4 million peopel to the flu each year.

Thing is, this is much more communicable and a LOT more lethal. The flu has an R0 of about 1.3. COVID-19 is >2. The flu has a lethality rate of about 0.1%. Estimates are COVID-19 is 10-20 times this.

So worldwide, that means your 1/4 million turns into 2.5 million. In the US, 60,000 dead becomes 600,000 dead.

We talk risk a lot here, so the question is...would you take the risk that if you get it, you have a 1 in 100 chance of dying? And bear in mind, it goes up dramatically for those who are older...

The planet may not change much in the long-term, big-picture scheme of things, but this is not simply a little bit worse flu.
 
Thing is, this is much more communicable and a LOT more lethal. The flu has an R0 of about 1.3. COVID-19 is >2. The flu has a lethality rate of about 0.1%. Estimates are COVID-19 is 10-20 times this.

So worldwide, that means your 1/4 million turns into 2.5 million. In the US, 60,000 dead becomes 600,000 dead.

We talk risk a lot here, so the question is...would you take the risk that if you get it, you have a 1 in 100 chance of dying? And bear in mind, it goes up dramatically for those who are older...

The planet may not change much in the long-term, big-picture scheme of things, but this is not simply a little bit worse flu.

More data is necessary, but it appears that the motality rate is directly tied to capacity of the healthcare system relative to spread rate. If you compare the mortalty rate in Japan vs. italy, you will see this very clearly. Not saying this will not be an unpleasant event with a significant death toll due to the rapid spead and an inablity to provide care to all getting it during the peak. However, once that peak and fall is over, this is not much different than another strain of flu relative to it's impact on society. Long term, the healthcare system will be able to deal with it, just as it deals with the flu in the elderly.

Ebola has a MUCH higher RO, but it has not really changed much globally. SARS has an RO over 4 or 5. Again, not much long term impact.

You simply can't compare the long term mortality rates, as 19 has only been in humans for 3 months. The initial spread mortality rate will be very different than the long term mortality rate. We don't even know if 19 will be able to mutate itself each year the way the flu does, mitigating each humans immunity. If it can't, this is all over as fast as it began. Just like chicken pox. Get it once and immune for life.
 
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Because Ebola has such a high fatality rate that it burns out relatively quickly (case fatality rate of 50% or higher).
 
Hey guys...there are lots of places on the internet to talk about the media all aspects of COVID-19, so unless your posts are directly related to RV’s, this is really drifting far off topic for this forum.

Doug cans unlock this if he thinks it should keep going, but it seems to have drifted off the OP’s primary point.
 
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