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Paul Dye, how 'bout it? No Shuttle repair?

pierre smith

Well Known Member
According to the Drudge Report, the management has decided that it's too risky to repair the Shuttle. Another professor objected, saying that they have the fix aboard so why not use it to increase the crews' chances.

What is your take Paul?

Thanks,
Pierre
 
Confucius Say: Man with suit who uses tools makes only big laundry bill. :D

jsc2006e24651.jpg
 
pierre smith said:
According to the Drudge Report, the management has decided that it's too risky to repair the Shuttle. Another professor objected, saying that they have the fix aboard so why not use it to increase the crews' chances.

What is your take Paul?

Thanks,
Pierre
I really don't think this is a "fair" question to be asking of Paul.
 
Since everyone's begging my opinion... :p

It seems to me that NASA would be extremely sensitive to the risk they run of being shut down until a new shuttle is ready if something happens with this return. To me the only reason they wouldn't want to repair/replace the tile is if they think the repair is riskier than leaving it alone. Sure they trained for this after Columbia, but they haven't ever proven it works. What makes me nervous is they're basing their simulations on photographic evidence. With the whole world watching this re-entry, NASA is walking a thin line. If something happens, all the armchair QB's will claim they should have fixed the tile in space. The inverse is true if they made the repair and something happened. They know they can't win a trial in the Court of Public Opinion if something goes wrong, so they're sticking to what they think they know. We're going to find out if they are as smart as we all hope they are.
 
I watched some fascinating video on NASA TV of the 3D modeling done on that tile damage - explained the wind tunnel modeling done and where the hotter spots in the hole were. Very interesting. I'm sure the risk vs return question was talked about adequately. I think it's around 2,000 degrees at that location (not the hottest by far).

I remember seeing pictures of the first shuttle returning with dozens of tiles missing from the rear OMB pods. Since it wasn't on a critical area it there was minimal damage.

Now, more importantly, Paul....what is up with Britney Spears? :D

b,
dr
(reporting from Homecoming - about to eat breakfast and leave for Van's) Cool.
 
DeltaRomeo said:
dr (reporting from Homecoming - about to eat breakfast and leave for Van's) Cool.

So what is this about a "Super 80", and seat 31----------I know Krunchuna has a "Super 8", but-----------------------

Flash if going to be jealous.

See you in a few hours.
 
pierre smith said:
What is your take Paul?

Paul is up to his armpits at MCC working on the Hurricane Dean issue and, I'm betting, not watching the forum today. (He did say that he'll likely do the press conference this afternoon. I hope they don't ask about Britney!!!!)
 
I thought for sure they would do the repair just as an excercise to see how well it worked. At least then they would have some actual real-world results to base future decisions on.

I'd also like to know exactly why this space walk would be so risky - since they have been doing all manner of them routinely for years without all the "risk" hype I've been seeing in the press lately.
 
Whew!

I sure am glad you guys didn't ask me about the EVA and the tile repair. ;^)
Don
P.S. All I've ever worked are the engines (SSME's) and solid rocket motors (RSRM's) so I don't know much about the Orbiter. :rolleyes:
 
No repair necessary...

From AeroNewsNet:

NASA Determines No Tile Repair Necessary Ahead Of Endeavour Return

Fri, 17 Aug '07
Micrometeroid Strikes Window, Damage Minor

NASA's Mission Management Team has determined a gouge on the underside of the space shuttle Endeavour will not need to be repaired before the orbiter returns to Earth next week.

As ANN reported, NASA engineers spent an extra day deliberating whether or not to repair a gouge in the heat resistant tiles on Endeavour's belly, which was caused by foam insulation striking the orbiter. The MMT previously said the damage likely wouldn't require repair to ensure the safety of the astronauts, although there was some question whether the damaged tiles would allow the shuttle's exposed aluminum skin to heat up enough to cause non-catastrophic damage to Endeavour.

There's still some question whether the decision to fly Endeavour home as-is will cause delays in prepping the orbiter for its next mission... but when weighed against the probability of risk in adding another extravehicular activity to the STS-118 crew's list of duties, in order to attempt an unproven repair, NASA decided to take the chance.

Meanwhile, on Thursday the hits just kept coming for Endeavour... literally. NASASpaceflight.com reports the STS-118 crew recorded images this week of a MMOD (micrometeoroid/orbiting debris) strike to the thermal pane of forward window 2, located on the port side of the orbiter. The strike was classified as minor, and does not pose a threat to astronauts onboard the shuttle.

On Thursday morning, Mission Specialists Barbara Morgan and Alvin Drew (above) participated in an education event with students at the Challenger Center for Space Science Education in Alexandria, VA. The center is honoring Morgan with the President George H.W. Bush Leadership Award, its top award.

Morgan, an educator who became an astronaut, was first selected by NASA in 1985 as the backup to original Teacher in Space Christa McAuliffe. Following the loss of the shuttle Challenger in 1986, Morgan continued to work with NASA on educational activities and returned to teaching elementary school in Idaho. She was selected as an astronaut by NASA in 1998, as family members of the Challenger crew looked on.

Morgan and Drew also talked with several television reporters. Just before 1300 EDT, Morgan used a HAM radio to talk with students in McCall, ID.

The STS-118 and Expedition 15 crews are continuing cargo transfers that began shortly after Endeavour docked August 10. Endeavour delivered supplies and equipment to the station, most of which were located in the pressurized Spacehab module in the payload bay. Spacehab will carry items, including science experiments, back to Earth.

Both crews were able to take Thursday afternoon off, to take in the scenery... or get some needed rest.

Mission managers did decide to move the flight?s fourth spacewalk from Friday to Saturday. If the repair isn?t done, that spacewalk will see installation of two antennas and removal of one, installation of a stowage stand for the shuttle?s orbiter boom sensor system and other tasks.

With the final decision now made on the tile repair, the MMT will next turn its attention to a small tear in astronaut Rick Mastracchio's glove, which occurred during Wednesday's spacewalk. Engineers will weight options on how this will affect the mission's fourth spacewalk, now set for Saturday.
 
phelan said:
...To me the only reason they wouldn't want to repair/replace the tile is if they think the repair is riskier than leaving it alone. Sure they trained for this after Columbia, but they haven't ever proven it works.

While I'm not Paul, I do know quite a bit about the tile repair techniques. I was a spacesuit engineer at JSC for 8 years and just recently moved on to other endevours. I supported many of the tile repair tests and saw all the options.

One of the main issues with repairing the tile is that its on the belly of the Orbiter and there are no hand-holds or foot restraints down there. Prior to the Columbia accident, there was no way to even inspect down there. They now have a long boom that attaches to the end of the shuttle robotic arm (RMS) so they can inspect and repair if needed. The main issue with the boom is that its aluminum and flexes quite a bit. If someone is on the boom and pushes on something (like the belly of the shuttle), the boom will start swaying. It could bring the astronaut into contact with the belly tiles and do more damage than is already there. The tiles are very fragile and can't take much of an impact. You can also input enough force to slip the brake on the joints of the RMS. This causes another whole series of problems. Lets just say they don't want to do this unless they absolutely have to.

One of the tile repair methods is to put a high temp RTV substance in the cavity. This goo (that's what we called it) is in 2 parts in a gun type apparatus. To mix the goo, there is a static mixer in the barrel. The goo works very well at resisting the temperature but has other issues. The main one is that they don't know if it will adhere to the tiles. If it comes out, not only is the cavity not protected but the clump of goo will do more damage as it bounces down the belly during re-entry. Needless to say, they don't want to use this method of repair unless they absolutely have to.

Another technique is to fill the cavity with small insulation "Pills" and then screw a carbon fiber overlay over the damage. There are a lot of issues with this technique. Some of the questions are: will the overlay stick up too much and trip the boundry layer? Will the augers that attach the overlay keep it on or will it just blow off? There are more issues that I can't think of right now.

"I thought for sure they would do the repair just as an excercise to see how well it worked. At least then they would have some actual real-world results to base future decisions on."

They have practiced these techniques many times in the pool (NBL), KC-135 and C-9 (zero-g), on an air bearing floor, in glove boxes and vacuum chambers, and many other places. They have practiced every way possible except during a real EVA. Now "the powers that be" must decide if the risks of more damage outweigh the risks of doing nothing. I'm kind of surprised but not totally surpised that they will leave it alone

As for the gloves, each (EVA) crewmember has two sets of gloves, prime and backup. Rick damaged his prime gloves. He will use his backup for any additional EVAs.

There has also been talk of the MMOD strike on the window. This occurs fairly regularly. The window are 5 layers (I think) of different materials. It would take a pretty severe hit to actually break a window to the point of leaking. The crew does a "survey" of the window at regular intervals to look for strikes and evaluate the damage. I'm not surprised they found a strike and it appears to have done minimal damage.

Enough rambling for now...

Karl (former EMU Guru)
 
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Mums the word?

I'm pretty sure that Paul has signed a non-disclosure contract for just this kind of scenario.Somtimes that includes his own opinion.Sometimes the contracts even include not talking to your family ....let alone your RV buddies!
 
What Karl Said....

And a few others!

I am not avoiding any issues - I have literally been in MCC since 0530 this morning, and just got home. Karl laid out very well the issues and risks of EVA's - and the point that every decision is a TRADE of risks. The bottom line is that after analyzing all of the DATA (not speculations, not gut feels, not hunches) gathered by testing and engineering analysis, the highest temperature that the cavity (from the missing tile) is going to see is lower than what most people run their CHT's at....and we all have aluminum heads, right?

For those who have grown up on Sci Fi Space Operas (myself included), you have to realize that going EVA is not at all like in the movies. You don't just throw on a suit and head outside for a five-minute fix. As Karl mentioned, all EVAs are practiced countless times in the pool, and choreographed beyond belief. Space hardware is very delicate, and easy to damage when you're bumping around in a big suit. Working under the belly is extremely tough to do precisely. The risk is extremely high. So why go down there when you don't have to?

You don't change your tires after every landing, do you? I mean, you know that you have scrubbed off some rubber, so they are no longer pristine right? And you can certainly change them before you fly again, and new ones MUST be better than ones that have a landing on them...right? So why don't you change them?!? Because they still have plenty of margin and life left...just as analysis and testing has shown us in this case.

We don't keep secrets - we are a public agency, and release what we know. We try not to speculate, and we certainly don't sensationalize. We're engineers - we don't think like that. There are no non-dislocure agreements - we do the best job we know how to keep everyone safe and still push the envelope of human knowledge.

Now I have to get back to work again - more messages coming in, and like Louise said - we have a hurricane to deal with, and I have hundreds of people to keep safe!
 
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THANK YOU!

Thanks for the update. Looking forward to a successful mission conclusion. The inside "skinny" is really amazing to be available here. :D
Thanks again!
 
Go get 'em Paul !

Thanks for the update, Iron. Get 'em home safe.

Lunch on me next time we RV hook up.

b,
dr
 
good luck

good luck to you all paul. were praying for a safe and uneventful return....as if coming from space is uneventful. ;) what a ride it must be. :cool:
 
Thanks Paul

I'm really glad to hear that N.A.S.A has not turned into a "MILITARY\INDUSTRIAL" machine that cares more about the spin than being a public service- with lives at stake.I'm also glad that I'm wrong about one of the last agencies that I look up too.Hope I didn't offend,it's just that I've become more than a little jaded.Peace.
 
I'll go, pick me!

Good Luck. I'd trade any one of the guys or gals up there for that ride home knowing that Paul is on the job!
 
Harland E. [n.m. u.s.a.] said:
I'm really glad to hear that N.A.S.A has not turned into a "MILITARY\INDUSTRIAL" machine that cares more about the spin than being a public service- with lives at stake.I'm also glad that I'm wrong about one of the last agencies that I look up too.Hope I didn't offend,it's just that I've become more than a little jaded.Peace.

Well yes and no. NASA is a great agency and we are all very proud of the folks who work there and their contributions to research and society. They are, however, humans and work under the same political pressures that other governmental agencies work under. I am not bashing anyone or NASA but just pointing out that NASA management, as all of us, work in politicized environments in which decisions made are not always 100% made solely on objective data. I am willing to bet that with every decision made there are a number of smart people who say "go" and still other smart people who say "no." The real challenge is weighing all of these opinions and coming to a conclusion. These decisions are not made on certainty, but rather on probability. I for one do not think I would want to carry the burden of making these decisions.

I read a couple of interesting books this summer written by Richard P Feynman - a professor and nobel prize winner in physics. He was on the challenger investigative committee. His book "What Do You Care What Others Think: Further Adventures of a Curious Character," is an easy and excellent read. He has several books out that I highly recommend - very fascinating person. He devotes about half of the book to his time on the Challenger committee. One of his favorite strategies was to get engineers and managers together in a room and ask them to anonymously write on a piece of paper their perceived probability of a catastrophic failure on the shuttle. The engineers typically responded with a probability between 1:300 and 1:500. Management, on the other hand, had been come to believe that quality control was so good and redundancy was so great that the probability of a catastrophic failure was near 0. Feynman's whole point in this exercise was to point out the huge gap between management and engineering perceptions and the lack of communications between management and engineers.

Again, this is not meant to bash anyone, it is simply to point out the dynamics that exist in all organizations and probably even more so in governmental agencies as deep and complex as NASA. And if you don't think NASA is political, then ask yourself why do they launch the shuttle in Florida and then as soon as it clears the tower, switch control to Houston - politics!

We all know that Paul and his team are the best when it comes to what they do. We are all very proud of them and wish them all the best in returning the shuttle to earth. We are very fortunate to have Paul as a member of these boards willing to share his knowledge with us. Very exciting indeed!

On an off note, perhaps we should organize an RV fly in at Ellington Field and have Paul take us all on a behind the scenes tour of NASA. What do ya think?
 
Tour

Tom,

That is something I'd really love to do. It has been years since I went to NASA.

Of course my RV isn't flying yet, so I'd have to drive, but I'd be more than happy to help out with the ground transportation.

Phil
 
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