Cancelled flight today...

I scrubbed a VFR flight to Tulsa today because of the weather situation across southern Missouri and Kansas as per the radar picture this afternoon.

Been wondering if having XM weather would have made a difference? Would any of you with it have challenged mother nature this afternoon?

I considered an end run around the west side of the Missouri activity but the stuff in Kansas is moving east so fast, I decided not to do it. Tomorrow is another day. The purpose of the trip is to visit a brother in Tulsa and collect a hamburger from Allen Barrett.

There are old pilots and bold pilots but no old bold pilots!

Depends.

I might have gone up and taken a look depending on ceilings, winds, and forecast.

But then I might also have scrubbed as you did.

Without any doubt you made a good decision and were on the ground thinking "should I have gone" rather than being in the air thinking "god I should have stayed on the ground".

cancelled flite

...I too recently scrubbed a trip...... after :10 aloft.
the vis in smoke from forest fires may have been legal VFR, but I was certain that I could NOT spot traffic, nor be seen in these kind of conditions.....
I felt much better on the ground that day.

You're still around to see another day, so no one can challenge your decision.

As long as you get a chance to make a second decision, it means your first one probably turned out okay.

I'm not sure where Troy is, but that isn't one I would have tried to pick my way through with XM. If you could have gotten on the west side, it might have been possible. But I probably would have kept the plane tied down and grabbed an extra cup of coffee.

Looks like the only way to might have been able to make it is going through SW Iowa and then back through SE Nebraska and down through central Kansas. That's a lot of flying and stress for a greasy cheeseburger, oily fries, and a fountain drink.

If it has not already happened, someone will be the first to gamble with XM weather in a case like this and die. It was not you!

Radar usually doesn't show the full picture for us VFR guys. The clouds are really a big factor also. What are the ceilings at? How fast are these storms moving? Are there many airports along the route? Are you using FF? It's nice to Weather and it also nice to have somebody else to bounce it off. Always have an out.

David -

You and I appear to have very similar weather risk levels - I'd be sitting on the ground with that weather picture and intended departure point and destinations as well. If I absolutely, positively had to be in Tulsa with my airplane, I'd have flown an extra three hours and gone all the way around the area to the north and then west.

As we all preach..."There is no reason to fly in to a thunderstorm in peacetime!"

(Besides, you retired guys have all the time in the world to sit and wait it out....)

Paul

I am guessing this is what it would have looked like as you approached the weather

Milt did you feel that you were flying dangerously?

Don't hesitate to stay put!

Nothing wrong with staying put. When in doubt, that is the best choice. I have done it lots of time, once for a couple of days.

Looking at the map I generally would go north and west like "Iron" said but I looked at the map and saw that Troy, MO is near St. Louis. If the weather was moving towards the East-Southeast, and assuming I was flying a plane with the speed and endurance of an RV I might have struck out south or southeast to see if I could turn the corner around the small leading cell. That's what I did returning to Fort Worth from Oshosh. On the day I left (Tuesday) there were storns over Kansas and Nebraska moving into Iowa and northern Missouri. I headed south for a couple of hundred miles and then turned more west over Missouri. The RV was fast enough to turn the corner. The great news is that all that time I had great weather to the east so it would have been easy to bail out and land and wait it all out.

I did get to watch a few showers like Milt showed but visibility was good and they were isolated and I had lots of options to turn toward better weather.

If things were moving south like a lot of weather has been lately I would have considered going north or waiting until it moved enough south to get around it on the north side.

The map does not show what is east and northeast but if it was clear you would have had a big old safety valve too!

The great thing about XM is that you can see the situation change and stay smart and ahead of it. The bad thing is it can give a pilot a false sense of security.

One other thing I like about XM is checking METARS ahead of my route. By checking 4 or 5 airports along and toward the weather I can get a feel for how things are changing.

NEXRAD + METARS = Better Picture

I like your pictures Milt, because lots of times, that is what the real world version of David's radar picture looks like. Then again....sometimes, it is just solid and ripped clag down to about 300 feet. That's why I always emphasize to people that you need both radar an METARS to get a reasonable picture.

I do like it when you get the widely scattered stuff you can fly around below!

Paul

The Kansas weather moved into Missouri and joined up with the stuff here about 3 hours later. Some areas in central Missouri got 3-5" of rain. Most of it has moved out to the east or dissipated this evening but there is still much action in Oklahoma as shown on the current lightning chart.

I considered a run to the south which would have worked if I could have flown fast enough. The problem going south of I-44 is much airspace is locked up by the military even down into Arkansas. I don't do active MOA's. As it turned out that was not a good option anyhow as Springfield and Joplin were overrun by TRW's before I could have gotten there and the stuff grew up quick in Oklahoma also.

We had an absolutely beautiful sun set, my wife said it is a sailors delight and things will be much better tomorrow. We shall see. If it looks like Milt's pictures, it will be a go for sure.

Don't try it

On the way to Oshkosh 2008, we tried to outrun a thunderstorm that was reportedly moving at 30 knots. Our aircraft had a groundspeed of 140 knots and we watched on the Garmin 496 as the thunderstorm ran us down. We had to stop and take cover. Seems as they move forward, they grow in size. I learned that you never get ahead of one. Just sit it out and wait till they pass.

Actually down here in the KS, AR, MO, OK area

As I was cutting the grass on my John Deere yesterday late in the afternoon in northwest Arkansas I actually thought to myself "now today is not a day I would want to be flying". Shortly thereafter the storm chased me inside. I do not have XM Weather but when things get like this I want to be on the ground or have good visual contact with the storm clouds so I can avoid them. If I had wanted to go to Tulsa I would not file IFR and I would fly around the storms by hundreds of miles if necessary to get there. In more benign cloud conditions I would file IFR follow the airways down by Springfield and over Joplin. As You are a mature big iron pilot I have to think this is a loaded question.

Bob Axsom

TSwezey said:

Milt did you feel that you were flying dangerously?

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Not really but my mission this day was a lot different than David's.
Ceilings were 2700' and vis was good, I live here and there are no towers so flying underneath was not an issue and I only had 15 (30 as it turns out ) miles to go. I think scud running under this stuff for several hundred miles would have been less than prudent.

This was last saturday over Southwest Mississippi. The Nexrad looked much like Davids picture above but I was just flying around in the leading edge of the system.

Thanks to all the stimulus dollars our local airport is closed for a monthfor runway resurfacing. With the storm coming I had to reposition an RV 8 from a grass strip to a local paved airport 15 nm away so we could get out the next day. My airport of intended landing seemed to be a magnet for thundershowers and after circling the area for 45 minutes. I diverted to another airport 30NM North as fuel was becoming an issue and now I couldn't get back in to the grass strip because it was soaked.

As luck would have it the new destination had recieved stimulus money for a new fuel farm and their fuel pumps were down. At that point I parked the plane and drove home in the courtesy car. Just shows you should check notams even when flying on home turf.

Decades ago I cancelled a lot of flights because the briefer said "VFR not advised" then I learned to go take a look and more often than not was able to complete the flight.

With XM it takes several flights to really learn what a nexrad picture means and doesn't mean. Depending on your mission and conditions at the departure point it usually never hurts to go "take a look" after a THOROUGH weather brief.

I hear a lot about having an Instrument rating increasing the utility of an airplane but in my opinion knowledge of weather systems and the ability to interpret a weather brief are just as if not more important relative to utility and safety. This is even more important with the advent of XM in the cockpit.

I am a big fan of being cautious but also think that starting a trip for a look see is a good way to learn and gain experience as long as you use good judgement and not press on into less than safe conditions.

I think David's initial choice was a good one given his route and distance to be flown as well as Metars along the route and what the system eventually did. You need to remember conditions along the front and tail end of a moving mass of storms are often much different than those in the middle.

The challenge to flying when XM is showing storms like this is having an "out".

Know where you are going to land and take cover, if you can't outrun the storm. Watch your fuel and alternate airports very closely and don't get caught into thinking that you can push through it.

Unlike Milt's very good pictures, here in the Southeast it is not unusual to have very hazy but legal VFR days all summer long. The problem is that sometimes, hidden in that haze is an ugly thunderstorm. On more than one occasion I could not see the storms but knew they were there because of the XM.

In the example presented at the start of this thread, I might fly up close, land, get some fuel, tie the plane down, and then look for a place to eat while it passes overhead.

If that is not an option, I would watch the storm as I approached and once I had a good idea of the direction of movement, I would work my way around it, if I could do it safely. Again, my preference would be to land and wait it out.

Here is the problem that last paragraph, be careful because that kind of thinking just set a trap. I don?t have time to wait out the storm but apparently I do have time to risk my life with the storm and possible never make my destination.

visibility...

I went out a while back on a day with Tstorms expected within the next few hours. The vis was about 7 and I stayed close to home. Anyway, there were lightning strikes at an airport 15 miles away and I saw absolutely NOTHING in the haze. If I had been trying to travel somewhere, I would not have been able to determine that a Tstorm was out there by myself. A very sobering experience.

On a more postive note, I think it's a GREAT idea to debrief flights(even if they were cancelled) and get other opinions on strategies for dealing with wx.
This might be worth a section of it's own. We might be able to build a nice library of scenarios for people to study.....

John

8/4 tried to to outrun an incoming storm at KLAF

I was delayed leaving Lafayette IN last Tuesday due to low ceiling and vis after a morning thunderstorm. I was trying to get to Blacksburg, VA to meet my wife and daughter. I knew another storm was coming from the west and I knew that if it improved enough locally I could head straight east past Columbus, OH north of the weather and then turn south around the front of the storm that had already passed. When the ATIS finally sounded OK I could see in the distance to the west the first signs of the looming storm that was coming my way. I quickly pushed out the plane, shut the hanger door, hopped in, buckled up, went through my check list, started and began to taxi.
All this took maybe 10 min at the most, all the wile my back was to the west and I could not see how the storm was progressing.

As I taxied past the end of my hanger I called ground with information Charlie and East departure. Ground came back "You may not want to go, there is a storm coming from the West at 60 kts and its going to be here real soon." I cranked the plane to the right so I could get a look to the West and COULD NOT BELIEVE MY EYES. The whole western sky was pitch black at noon and bearing down FAST. It was obvious I would not get off the ground before it hit. I thanked ground and took their advice. Even though I was only 300 yards from my hanger I barely got the plane inside as the storm hit with 57 kt winds.

A couple hours later I was able to get off and make it to KBCB with no problem. The lesson to me, If it looks like it will be close beating out the weather, you probably will not. I am glad I didn't get caught on the runway or on the ramp when the storm hit.

David-aviator said:

I scrubbed a VFR flight to Tulsa today because of the weather situation across southern Missouri and Kansas as per the radar picture this afternoon.

Been wondering if having XM weather would have made a difference? Would any of you with it have challenged mother nature this afternoon?

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I have XM weather and I would have stayed on the ground... Okay, I cheated. I talked to two people at work today who live in Tulsa. One was driving the turnpike toward Enid. It was raining horizontal and the wind was blowing so hard it overturned a tractor trailer in front of him. Another said nearly the same thing with out the truck wreck. Visibility near zero in blowing rain. He said if it would have been dark he would have had to pull completely off the road. Same storms.

As said in the responses from many, it's better to be on the ground wishing you were airborne than vise versa. However, it seems like the original question had more to do with the usefulness of XM. I think it is a valuable tool. I think you made the right choice is staying grounded, hence this worthwhile discussion. I wouldn't use mine in anticipation of having to navigate around already known violent weather that affects most of my route on a long cross country. For a local flight, weather that is scattered or isolated with metars indicating good ceilings in the areas surrounding the local storms, as in Milts experience/pictures can be done quite safely and more so if you have XM. One thing that I noticed in your post is that you mentioned the reason for the flight (not all that important), indicating that that may have a bearing on your decision to go. It shouldn't. Your decision was correct regardless of the reason for the flight. For too many people, the reason for the flight as some bearing on weather minimums. I'm sure this doesn't apply to you because of your post here, but some readers may take information gleaned from these responses and decide that XM will allow a different decision (so far that isn't the case here). XM will allow a VFR pilot to avoid hazardess weather if it's scattered and ceilings and vis remains above your personal minimums, and will give an IFR pilot up to date enroute information, but shouldn't be used to alter your decision to fly in marginal weather. I know I'm preaching to the choir here, but XM is just another valuable tool, like EFIS and an autopilot. Fly safe out there.....

In Colorado we can get strong gust fronts from thunderstorms several miles away. Far enough away that a person might be tempted to fly. Perhaps that is partially what Frank experienced yet he may have been much closer to the storm than what I have seen.

I am surprised that the person who tried to outrun a thunderstorm could not. I would have assumed the same as he did. I can fly 150 knots or better. I can outrun a developing thunderstorm to get away from it. Maybe not in some cases. I suppose this adds additional justification for staying at least 20 nm from a thunderstorm.

Ron Lee said:

In Colorado we can get strong gust fronts from thunderstorms several miles away. Far enough away that a person might be tempted to fly. Perhaps that is partially what Frank experienced yet he may have been much closer to the storm than what I have seen.

I am surprised that the person who tried to outrun a thunderstorm could not. I would have assumed the same as he did. I can fly 150 knots or better. I can outrun a developing thunderstorm to get away from it. I suppose this adds additional justification for staying at least 20 nm from a thunderstorm.

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Somedays not only a is storm system moving fast, it is developing as it does and it may be doing that right over your position ahead of what is visible. I've seen that in the past.

Anyway, I delayed the flight 24 hours and flew to Tulsa in perfect weather yesterday, even had a slight tail wind at 8500'. I was messing around with LOP again and got the thing down to 7.8 gph and TAS was 150 knots plus most of the way, actually arrived about 10 minutes ahead of a Duats flight plan with current winds with more fuel than planned. Can not complain about that. The airplane is tied down at Harvey Young airport, a rather quaint very old Tulso airport. The local manager is very helpful but if you stop here for fuel, bring cash. They have not yet joined the plastic world. I did bring enough green to fill the tanks so it was no big deal.

Had lunch with Allan Barrett and my brother at Hank's hamburger joint, also a local institution near the Tulsa big airport. Tulsa has a lot of aviation history and I'm not sure how Hank's fits into it but my brother commented it was a favority before he retired from AA as a mechanic. Later we stopped by the old Dusenberg factory near old down town Broken Arrow. Just so happens the owner, Glen Pray, was there and he welcomed us like long lost friends into his office which is decorated with all kinds of stuff about old cars and, low and behold, airplanes. I said "you are an aviator" and that he was many years ago. (There is an old Beech twin without engines sitting in his junk yard.) Mr. Pray then proceded to give us a tour of the what is left of the old Dusenberg factory which has been a repository for all his stuff for many years. He evidently had a business building replicas of old cars at one time along with being quite a pilot. In one corner of the facility is a comglomeration of old aircraft engines, including a Ranger, a 7 and 9 cylinder radial and an inverted V-12 air cooled engine which I never heard of. He said it was not a German engine as I thought they built the only inverted V-12's. All in all, an interesting day.

Flying home tommorrow and God willing will be there in less than 2 hours.

guide only

XM weather has helped me complete VFR flights that I would not have attempted without on board weather. However, the radar returns, in my opinion should be used only as a guide. Especially in the south where my experience shows these thunderstorms can pop up without much notice. Also, the radar updates are delayed and not real time. Diverting to an airport that shows a VFR flag and METAR may also be delayed and not real time, so heading for that VFR airport may trick you into to an IFR situation. It is possible this time of year to get boxed in where you can run out of ideas quickly. When in doubt, staying put is always the best decision.

The corridor southwest looked tempting but I wouldn't have gone in there.

Some years ago I spotted a range fire on the Oklahoma panhandle. It had started from a smoldering tree hit by lightning the night before. The sky was relatively clear and I summoned the fire department and hung around directing the firetrucks from my cell phone but the fire was down along the banks of the Cimarron River and the trucks couldn't get to it. They asked for Ag planes to put the fire out.
On the second run from 30 miles away the cells were popping up like popcorn and we were penetrating numerous heavy showers while making the run for home after extinguishing the fire. The lead airtractor was taking quite a bit of hail as he turned final. I turned my base at about midfield and missed out on the hard stuff.
It seemed the whole sky exploded in a relatively short period of time. The area between the storms reminded me of the experience.
The radar return confirmed that your plane was relatively safe in the hangar unless you wanted a fairly long flight north and down the backside.

Anyway, I delayed the flight 24 hours and flew to Tulsa in perfect weather yesterday

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If I were sitting in an airport looking at the same route and weather brief as David and I had decided to go take a look only to here David say he was headed to the bar to wait it out, I would without a doubt, tie the plane down and head to the bar with him.

All the XM, metars and gizmos in the world cannot compare to the experience David brings to the decision making process. He has undoubtedly spent more time flying in the actual stuff than I have total time in the air.

N395V said:

If I were sitting in an airport looking at the same route and weather brief as David and I had decided to go take a look only to here David say he was headed to the bar to wait it out, I would without a doubt, tie the plane down and head to the bar with him.

All the XM, metars and gizmos in the world cannot compare to the experience David brings to the decision making process. He has undoubtedly spent more time flying in the actual stuff than I have total time in the air.

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Thanks for the kudos, Milt, but there are lots of guys here who have more experience in these airplanes than I and their perspective is perhaps more important. My working experience counts too but it was a different world with different challenges and in many respects, easier. The equipment was excellent for the task and we were well trained to use it.

XM weather has intrigued me. I was interested in how it might have been used that day as radar is used everyday with commercial flights. When I was working air borne radar made flying on such days routine. We got good at using it and we almost never cancelled or delayed a flight with such a situation, it was easy to fly around or over it. The problem almost always was getting a clearance to take off. Air traffic control had lots of flights to keep from running into each other and when major deviations from filed routes were requested, there frequently was not enough air space to accommodate everyone. You really do not have that much control over going where you want to so the system has evolved to where no one goes anywhere if ATC thinks the system will become over loaded - which it does frequently with major weather systems.

The issue here is challenging such a weather development VFR with or without XM. I think the general consensus is XM is a neat tool but it does not provide a way out on such a day except maybe do a 180, and most guys can figure that out looking through the wind screen if they even take off. XM will give you a more long range out look, but that too is available on the internet before take off. The "animated" feature of weather radar is most helpful in forecasting where a system is going and if it is growing or dissipating.

Our travel options can be limited with our equipment because we frequently can not fly over, under or around a major system, VFR or IFR. So one must be prepared to NOT make a flight no matter how important it may be to be somewhere. There are lots of days we can fly VFR most anywhere, but we must not get too much into thinking we can go anywhere anytime. There are times when it makes good sense to just wait a day and things will be much better. This past week was one of those times.

The guys in Oklahoma said you don't want to flying around here on days like Monday afternoon.

Unloading at Harvey Young Airport in Tulsa. It was a nice day, the next day. The return flight today was a non event, i.e, a very peaceful.

I was in this same system

No, I didn't fly in it either - at least not on the 10th - I was at KXNA (Fayetteville) needing to return to DFW area and decided to sit on the ground and wait until the next day. It wasn't a lot better but using the XM I was able to make an end run back over just East of Tulsa and then through the only gap for about 100 miles. I was never below 4500 and in smooth air. I could see from the XM that there was no embedded lightening and was able to keep track of the movement of the storm. At one point the controller offered to give me a heading - it was 5 degrees different than where I was already at. I offered my thanks just the same. Here is what I was seeing off to my left and right. I use the XM to avoid the weather, but I also use my head and sit on the ground when I need to!


Only added about 15 minutes to the overall flight so this is my altered route:
http://share.findmespot.com/shared/faces/viewspots.jsp?glId=0SFmBxOSgMKQjJsVFs12Sop47xGnPktr8