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CoVid and Airplane Prices

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s11033

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Hey guys,

I'm looking to buy my first airplane, and am most interested in the RV6, RV7 and RV8. My funds are limited, and I think I can probably get a better deal on an RV6. But I'm open to all 3, with a preference for taildraggers.

I've heard someone theorize that the health and economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic might depress prices of flying aircraft and advanced kits within the next 6 months. Can anyone speak to what happened to prices during the 2008 recession?

Stay healthy guys!

Steve
 
Can't comment in 2008; but you are probably accurate. Much of the folks who are consumers of GA derive income from aviation; and the hit to the industry will be on par with 911.
 
I think it?s way too early to tell. It?s only been a bad situation here for less than two weeks. They have a vaccine already and the sick season is about over. I think the panic will subside within a month and our economy will crawl back up out of the hole by mid summer. That?s my optimistic, but realistic guess. If I wanted to sell my airplane, I certainly wouldn?t do it when we just stalled it and are in the middle of a spin. Let?s hope our PIC can keep his cool, apply the right controls, and recover before we bite the dust.
 
Sorry, no vaccine is at all ready.

Here's a reasonably reliable guide to what's known. I've found the site, Ars Technica, to be reliable over the last several years. This article gets updated daily and has just been updated for today.

As for airplane prices, about the only observation I can make, in the absence of data, is that among the elderly (figure age 60 or up) the mortality rate is higher than for younger people. So if us older folk die off, there will be some airplanes offered by estate sales. Probably not all that rapidly, as the estates will need to be probated and the virus will slow that down.

Dave
 
Can anyone speak to what happened to prices during the 2008 recession?

Stay healthy guys!

Steve

I won't try to predict what will happen the remainder of this year, but in regard to your questions, yes, RV prices did decline following the recession in 2008. In cases where buyers tried to maintain pricing, it took longer to move the aircraft.
 
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?among the elderly (figure age 60 or up) the mortality rate is higher than for younger people. So if us older folk die off, there will be some airplanes offered by estate sales.?.....

That?s what I like ?a positive attitude.? While it might work out that way, I can say that not many of us ?seniors? want to think about ?estate sales?.
 
...They have a vaccine already and the sick season is about over. I think the panic will subside within a month and our economy will crawl back up out of the hole by mid summer.

They are no where near having a vaccine... and probably wont for at least a year. Not sure where you got that misinformation.
 
My observation FWIW... When I started building in 2005, people were getting significantly more than they were putting into the 2-seaters. (That was a selling point I made to my wife! :rolleyes:) It got to the point where the issues of "professional" or serial builds for profit were quite common and on the rise. However, by the time I finished and started flying in 2012, that profit margin had pretty much dried up for the 2-seaters. Since then I don't think people get a whole lot more (if any) out of them than what they put in. I'm guessing that the 2008-9 crash made the initial difference. Thereafter, (relative) market saturation have kept prices around the cost to build.

All that said, it seems like the market for the -10 has always been pretty strong. This leads me to believe that, if you've got enough money for a -10 in the first place, then a market downturn is less likely to impact your airplane buying than it would if your budget is more suited to the 2-seaters.
 
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They are no where near having a vaccine... and probably wont for at least a year. Not sure where you got that misinformation.

Trials by Moderna started today. Google it. But to your point, it's still a long way away. Both points in this thread are correct. Vaccine in test but a long way to wide availability.
 
My WAG is that as the airlines slow down, they are going to stop needing to fill the pilot shortage, which will trickle down to the flight schools losing customers, which will trickle down to GA aircraft becoming more available.

If the work slow-down continues, there will be less $$$ available for "discretionary" spending, which will indeed hamper the EAB market. At least until the stock market recovers, and then we will see.

-Marc

I sure am glad I'm not running for office in the upcoming election! :eek:
 
Actually, they DO have a vaccine, but you?re right, it won?t be available to the public until next year. Human testing is starting now - way ahead of normal. What someone said about airplanes being available because of seniors (like me) checking out, while funny, is probably true, at least to a small degree. So, just to give some advance notice, I have an RV4 that is probably one of the best built RV?s I?ve seen. I?ve built three RV?s and owned 5, so I know what I?m talking about. I?ve done numerous upgrades to this bird, and I?m always amazed at the quality of the build that the elderly gentleman did on this airplane over a 22 year period. This gent was a machinist, and it shows. It?s not for sale, and never will be as long as I?m alive, but my widow might make notice if the COVID gets me. Just a heads up.....
 
Virus

Only one case in Alaska as of a couple hours ago. That person was just arrived from out of state. That at least suggests that the virus could be affected by extreme cold as well as temperatures over 80 degrees.
 
What spurred my question is that I?m currently stuck in the containment zone in Madrid, Spain. My return flight was cancelled, and I?ll probably be here for a couple more weeks. Over here we?re about a week behind Italy in terms of the public health impacts, and the US probably about a week behind us.

In Italy the healthcare system has been so severely stressed by the volume of cases that it?s all but collapsed. If you show up seeking care and are above a certain age, or have preexisting conditions, they just turn you away. Wards are full, healthcare providers are sick, and ventilators are in very short supply.

With the US having about half the number of hospital beds per capital that Italy has, I think it?s going to be a huge disaster. The only thing that will avert the crisis in my opinion is a total lockdown. But of course that?s not going to happen.

From South Korean data, we know that the most commonly infected by far are young adults. We also know that the deaths are largely people above 60 years old and those with pre-existing health conditions. We young adults treating this crisis as a regular work week, or evening a spring break, are the carriers that will kill our sick and elderly family members.

Don?t underestimate the gravity of this disease. Now is not the time for optimism.

To the younger folks on here, protect the sick and elderly by staying home. To the older folks on here, take the all precautions necessary to avoid becoming a statistic that makes it cheaper for me to buy an RV in a few months.

Stay healthy!

Steve
 
I bought my -6 from the US in late 2009, after the housing crisis in the US had people panicking and getting rid of their toys. The person I bought from wasn't financially strapped, but the market had depressed prices about 30% from when I started looking in early 2009.

So i'd say yes, it's going to be a good time to buy a used plane if you are patient. Watch prices and see if they start coming down.
 
I bought my -6 from the US in late 2009, after the housing crisis in the US had people panicking and getting rid of their toys. The person I bought from wasn't financially strapped, but the market had depressed prices about 30% from when I started looking in early 2009.

So i'd say yes, it's going to be a good time to buy a used plane if you are patient. Watch prices and see if they start coming down.

Thanks!

I certainly hope the real impacts of this are milder than projected.
<SNIP>

Steve
 
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They are no where near having a vaccine... and probably wont for at least a year. Not sure where you got that misinformation.

See below ....

Trials by Moderna started today. Google it. But to your point, it's still a long way away. Both points in this thread are correct. Vaccine in test but a long way to wide availability.

Moderna and 5 other companies genetic sequenced the virus and had their vaccine three days after sequencing. Problem comes from worrying about litigation, so you get the FDA mandated "human trials" for a year looking for adverse reactions and allergies. Israel is using there's already. The bill Trump passed allowing "heroic measure use" of any experimental drug applies to this - as long as you've signed off you won't sue Moderna et al.
 
If there is a world wide depression it is possible some people may elect to sell their RV due to finances and be more flexible on price. If you think you might be a victim of financial hardship due to global depression one might suggest delay of major purchases. With that said don't count on a nice higher HP, CS prop, glass cockpit, AP, Pro paint/interior RV going cheap anytime soon. Sorry. It is likely infections and deaths will dramatically drop in 1-2 months. People will have developed natural immunity and vaccines & therapeutics will be developed and available within 12 months or sooner. How economy bounces back is anyone's guess. Lasting affects may go a few years. ((All my comments are WILD GUESSING))
 
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It's definitely putting a delay on me selling my Mooney! My portfolio is worth nothing now, so I'm going to have to really stretch out making any progress on my -14 empennage until I can afford to buy the wings!
 
I would suspect the big insurance increases are going to affect the market more than this. A lot of pilots can no longer get enough coverage to insure their net worth, and/or they are seeing safety pilot requirements. That's going to drive some of them out. The owner flown jet and turboprop market is getting hammered, and a lot of those guys have RV's and such as toys.

DEM
 
Actually, they DO have a vaccine, but you’re right, it won’t be available to the public until next year. Human testing is starting now ...

You do NOT have a vaccine until you have a product that actually works and you are satisfied can be given to hundreds of millions of people without creating side effects that could be worse than the effects of the corona virus itself. The testing of this product may take a year or more and there is no guarantee whatsoever that it will be deemed effective or safe at the end of that test period. So we need to cut through the semantic cr@p here and acknowledge that at the moment there is NO vaccine for the corona virus and nor is there likely to be an effective and safe one available until at least 2021. ;)
 
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I?ll speak for myself, but if I lose my job in the airlines (looks likely right now) and we continue into a deep recession, my RV-4 is the last thing to go. Frankly, you would have to pry it out of my cold, dead hands.

My point is, rv owners are passionate enthusiasts and the opportunity for a deal is much less likely than in real estate, boats, or cars. My 2 cents FWIW
 
About ready to test this a bit. We will be selling our Airpark home. Similar factors in play as a big target market for us will be, or would have been, airline pilots.
The impact on our economy will obviously come into play as well.
Fortunately, or unfortunately, depending on your view, it won?t be a fire sale.
 
My .02 worth since being involved in aviation over the last 45 years. Any time there is a recession or depression or other turmoil in the financial world there are folks that need to get out because of the expense. Somebody told me a long time ago that the difference between a depression and a recession is that a recession is when somebody else is out of work and a depression is when you are out of work. With that being said I have never seen airplane prices go down much for long. I wish I still had my V35B that I sold in 1995. It would bring about 3 times what I got for it. As far as I know my -7 is worth more than what I have in it. One thing that I have noticed is that the best examples always bring top dollar no matter what plane it is and the dogs don't bring near as much or sell near as fast. I think it pays you to keep your plane in top condition even though it cost to do it. You will have more pride of ownership and if you have to sell it will go smoother.
 
I hope you guys are right that not too many people will get hurt by this. Personally I think this shock will hit harder than a lot of folks realize right now.

Stay healthy, and protect the sick and elderly through this!

Steve
 
I hope you guys are right that not too many people will get hurt by this. Personally I think this shock will hit harder than a lot of folks realize right now.

Stay healthy, and protect the sick and elderly through this!

Steve

IMHO They are not right.

We are watching the greatest hit to Americas economy ever. Congress is working on relief bills in the trillions. Businesses are shuttered across the country, many will never reopen. AND people think this will not effect the value of our toys...Oh boy, pretty amazing.
 
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I have to agree with MFleming. The infection phase of Covid 19 will take 6-12 months to work through our country, unemployment will ripple through the economy to all levels, and a lot of people will be looking at decimated retirement accounts (myself included). Dedicated Vans owners will hold onto the planes they built and love but a lot of people will have to make a decision between mortgage and toys. The vaccine will be released at the very end of the pandemic assuming all goes smoothly and it's effective but there does seem to be a little hope in some unique medical treatments. Wash your hands and stay away from sick people and the elderly.
BTW I am looking for a 9A but don't want anyone to die to free one up.
 
This world changing event will change the face of the planet as far as aviation goes at ALL levels! When it's all over Aviation will go on but it won't go on for all of us!
 
Already starting to see articles in major outlets sharing the theme "Is the cure worse than the disease?" Authors come at the issue from all directions...isolation is mentally difficult, all health outcomes are worse when money is tight, comparisons to both past and current influenza, economically acceptable death rate, statistical error, you name it.

Basically we have two camps. One says "flatten the curve", which really means stretch it out over a longer period so it doesn't overwhelm the system. The growing camp says accept a certain level of loss, much as we do with individual motor vehicles (1.35 million deaths per year, 3,700 per day globally) and the currently circulating influenza strains (CDC estimated at 230,000 deaths so far this flu season alone).

We all look at things through our own lens. I care for my mom, who is 85 and definitely at risk. At the same time, my business is losing money, and it supports us all. Do I close up and isolate to protect Mom, or go to work, greet the public, and take the risk?

At a far higher level, our political leaders are coping with the same issues. Inevitably, decisions will have to be made. I can't speak for them, but here at home, Mom says go for it. I think we're going to see it at the upper levels too.
 
Absolutely . . . but has to be smart.

Already starting to see articles in major outlets sharing the theme "Is the cure worse than the disease?" Authors come at the issue from all directions...isolation is mentally difficult, all health outcomes are worse when money is tight, comparisons to both past and current influenza, economically acceptable death rate, statistical error, you name it.

Basically we have two camps. One says "flatten the curve", which really means stretch it out over a longer period so it doesn't overwhelm the system. The growing camp says accept a certain level of loss, much as we do with individual motor vehicles (1.35 million deaths per year, 3,700 per day globally) and the currently circulating influenza strains (CDC estimated at 230,000 deaths so far this flu season alone).

We all look at things through our own lens. I care for my mom, who is 85 and definitely at risk. At the same time, my business is losing money, and it supports us all. Do I close up and isolate to protect Mom, or go to work, greet the public, and take the risk?

At a far higher level, our political leaders are coping with the same issues. Inevitably, decisions will have to be made. I can't speak for them, but here at home, Mom says go for it. I think we're going to see it at the upper levels too.

Hope to see the announcement for readily available PPE, limited regional hot spot restrictions, and better mitigation implementation for high traffic businesses along with the new Grand Opening!
 
Basically we have two camps. One says "flatten the curve", which really means stretch it out over a longer period so it doesn't overwhelm the system. The growing camp says accept a certain level of loss, much as we do with individual motor vehicles (1.35 million deaths per year, 3,700 per day globally) and the currently circulating influenza strains (CDC estimated at 230,000 deaths so far this flu season alone).

Sorry, but I have to take a little issue here. The problem with the 'fix is worse than the problem' approach is that strategy leads to deaths PURELY as a result of incapacity of the healthcare system (eg, no available ventilators). Just look at the numbers in Italy and do the math (64,000 documented cases and 6000 deaths) to see that their mortality rate goes up significantly from the 1-3% accepted viral mortality rate when the system is overburdened.

The absolute numbers for this virus do not compare to MVC deaths or flu deaths...yet. But based on the most recent estimates, this will DWARF all of those sources of mortality COMBINED in the next few months. This will be unlike anything you or I or our parents have ever endured. We will ALL know someone who dies from this.

There is nothing political or 'partisan' about any of it. The virus doesn't care who you voted for or which party you support or what the stock market is doing. I hope that everyone in this community stays safe and healthy.

Sincerely,
Jon Weiswasser, MD
 
The growing camp says accept a certain level of loss, much as we do with individual motor vehicles (1.35 million deaths per year, 3,700 per day globally)

If every car accident caused 2 more car accidents, and the rate of car accidents was doubling every couple of days, and we were headed towards 100,000,000 or more car accidents in this country, think this would still be a valid analogy?

Comparing a viral pandemic to automobile accidents is silly.
 
Gentlemen, I'm not advocating we give everyone a free dose and get it done. I'm merely pointing out that very soon, decisions will be made, and "protect life at all costs" won't be the sole position.
 
If every car accident caused 2 more car accidents, and the rate of car accidents was doubling every couple of days, and we were headed towards 100,000,000 or more car accidents in this country, think this would still be a valid analogy?

Comparing a viral pandemic to automobile accidents is silly.

We, as a society, make countless decisions on community policies based upon cost / benefit analysis. Literally millions of lives could be saved from more stringent regulations on countless things, along with their negative consequences on society at large. Don't see how this is any different. We may all come up with a different assesment of the cost / benefit analysis, but please don't tell us that decisions shouldn't be made that way.

I am sure there is a population that believes it is worth going back to horse and buggies in order to save millions of lives from car accidents. But I don't believe it is the majority. Your argument is really the same. THe real question is what does the societies majority believe is the correct trade off and do they possess enough facts to make an assessment and draw a conclusion.
 
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We, as a society, make countless decisions on community policies based upon cost / benefit analysis. Literally millions of lives could be saved from more stringent regulations on countless things, along with their negative consequences on society at large. Don't see how this is any different. We may all come up with a different assesment of the cost / benefit analysis, but please don't tell us that decisions shouldn't be made that way.

I am sure there is a population that believes it is worth going back to horse and buggies in order to save millions of lives from car accidents. But I don't believe it is the majority. Your argument is really the same. THe real question is what does the societies majority believe is the correct trade off and do they possess enough facts to make an assessment and draw a conclusion.

I never said any such thing(s). I am only pointing out that pandemics and car accidents are fundamentally different in nature and it's simply political rhetoric to make decisions about one based on the equating it with the other.

You never hear people say we should accept twice as many automotive fatalities because that's how many people die from the flu every year, do you?
 
Relax guys. Have a laugh....this from Berkeley Breathed

Our beloved Bill the Cat, in full protection:

Bill%20the%20Corona%20Cat.JPG
 
Hey guys...there are lots of places on the internet to talk about the media all aspects of COVID-19, so unless your posts are directly related to RV’s, this is really drifting far off topic for this forum.

Doug cans unlock this if he thinks it should keep going, but it seems to have drifted off the OP’s primary point.
 
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