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RV Kit Starts vs. Completions

pmccoy

pmccoy

Well Known Member
I was surfing on Youtube and found a video of the Vans Aircraft homecoming for this year. ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMenyYYznFU ).

A very interesting topic came up. How many tail kits have been sold for each RV vs. how many projects are reported as flying. Here is the recap.

Starts = Flying
RV3 - 620 = 608
RV4 - 4,591 = 1,340
RV6 - 6,599 = 2,481
RV7 - 4,119 = 1,209
RV8 - 3,316 = 1,143
RV9 - 2,123 = 751
RV10 - 1,385 = 413
RV12 - 680 = 183
RV14 - 4 = 1

23,841 Tail kits have been sold. Way to go VAN!
 
4 RV-14's have been started, I wonder who the lucky 2 (assuming vans is building another) are who got the first 2 kits.

-david
 
I don't believe Vans had started selling the 14 kit at the time of the video. The four starts must be employees.
 
Interesting that, aside from the -3, the kits are running generally at a 1:4 to 1:3 completion rate. Can you only imagine the popularity / ubiquity (for better or worse) if that was doubled to even half sold to completed? :eek:
 
Wow, less than 50% completion rate...although I would venture a solid guess that a lot of those projects are still in the process of being built (like mine).
 
aarvig said:
Wow, less than 50% completion rate...although I would venture a solid guess that a lot of those projects are still in the process of being built (like mine).
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Yes, I think I would call it a "completed" rate rather than a "completion" rate, in the way most folks would understand it - as Van likes to say, there are only those kits that have been completed, and those that haven't YET been completed.... ;)

I must admit - I do find it a bit hard to believe that only 12 RV-3 kits that have been sold have yet to be completed....
 
Percentages!

pmccoy said:
I was surfing on Youtube and found a video of the Vans Aircraft homecoming for this year. ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMenyYYznFU ).

A very interesting topic came up. How many tail kits have been sold for each RV vs. how many projects are reported as flying. Here is the recap.

Starts = Flying
RV3 - 620 = 608
RV4 - 4,591 = 1,340
RV6 - 6,599 = 2,481
RV7 - 4,119 = 1,209
RV8 - 3,316 = 1,143
RV9 - 2,123 = 751
RV10 - 1,385 = 413
RV12 - 680 = 183
RV14 - 4 = 1

23,841 Tail kits have been sold. Way to go VAN!
Click to expand...


Thanks Peter....so here are the percentage breakdowns of sales vss completions:

Starts = Flying
RV3 - 620 = 608 = 98.06%
RV4 - 4,591 = 1,340 = 29.09%
RV6 - 6,599 = 2,481 = 37.60%
RV7 - 4,119 = 1,209 = 29.35%
RV8 - 3,316 = 1,143 = 34.46%
RV9 - 2,123 = 751 = 35.37%
RV10 - 1,385 = 413 = 29.82%
RV12 - 680 = 183 = 26.91%
RV14 - 4 = 1 = 25%

Yes......I am away from home on business, stuck in a hotel and bored....that why I crunched the percentages....that killed about 15 minutes:eek:

By the way.....I have purchased one of those bygone kits a couple months ago from another gentleman....it was manufactured in 2005....then I purchased a QB from another gentleman nearby that was also from 2005...the two shall come together to fly one day.....officially starting the build in a couple weeks:D:D
 
Percent Completed to Date

Adding % to the OP

Starts = Flying = %
RV3 - 620 = 608 = 98
RV4 - 4,591 = 1,340 = 29
RV6 - 6,599 = 2,481 = 38
RV7 - 4,119 = 1,209 = 29
RV8 - 3,316 = 1,143 = 34
RV9 - 2,123 = 751 = 35
RV10 - 1,385 = 413 = 30
RV12 - 680 = 183 = 27
RV14 - 4 = 1

I'm with Iron, the -3 number doesn't look right. (Couldn't figure out how to make the columns come out lined up.)
 
I have a -9 tail kit that will never fly. I bought it from another builder and decided to scrap it and build my own. I'm sure there is a small percentage of these cases.
 
14

Flyguytki said:
4 RV-14's have been started, I wonder who the lucky 2 (assuming vans is building another) are who got the first 2 kits.

-david
Click to expand...

I heard a few months ago that there was one flying outta that hangar that builds all the nice autopilot stuff in AR. I could certainly be wrong.
 
Beta test

Nope, only one is flying. Three others under construction... a Tail Dragger prototype, and two beta test builders
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Think I would wait till the final assembly kit is ready. Would be interesting though to get your hands on one first.
 
To make it a valid comparison, I think you would need to exclude those kits that have been sold somewhat recently. It is unrealistic to expect a builder who bought their tail kit last week to contribute to the flying numbers.

How you would do this, I don't know. Average build time = X hours, 5 hours/week worked on the plane, exclude all kits sold before today-(AvgHours/5*52)?

Given there is an RV flying nearly every single day, and a 3-4/1 tailkit to completion ratio, you can see new builders make a significant proportion of the yet-to-fly numbers.
 
Skykingbob said:
Thanks Peter....so here are the percentage breakdowns of sales vss completions:

Starts = Flying
RV3 - 620 = 608 = 98.06%
RV4 - 4,591 = 1,340 = 29.09%
RV6 - 6,599 = 2,481 = 37.60%
RV7 - 4,119 = 1,209 = 29.35%
RV8 - 3,316 = 1,143 = 34.46%
RV9 - 2,123 = 751 = 35.37%
RV10 - 1,385 = 413 = 29.82%
RV12 - 680 = 183 = 26.91%
RV14 - 4 = 1 = 25%
Click to expand...

Interesting that the completed rates for some of the more recent models (RV7, 8, 9, 10) are comparable to some of the older models (RV4, 6). Evidence that the more modern kits are getting completed at a higher rate? (or faster?)

I think there must be a "1" missing from the tally of RV3 kits? If so then 37% have been completed.
 
rockwoodrv9 said:
After seeing my friend Dave's 3 kit, I can't believe there are 12 that ARE completed!
Click to expand...
Funny!


I agree with Paul and others on the 3. I thought under 300 where flying.
The 4 kit has been out of production for a long time, so there must be a lot of kits sitting out there in attics. Rockets make up a small portion of the missing kits but it sure does not compare to the 3, so, something wrong?

From these numbers, looks like the 6/6A will continue it's position of being Van's most popular model for a long time to come.
 
JonJay said:
From these numbers, looks like the 6/6A will continue it's position of being Van's most popular model for a long time to come.
Click to expand...

True, but it didn't have its sales diluted by the 9, 10, 12, & 14 like the 7 has. It was a hot seller because there were fewer choices.
 
JonJay said:
Funny!


I agree with Paul and others on the 3. I thought under 300 where flying.
The 4 kit has been out of production for a long time, so there must be a lot of kits sitting out there in attics. Rockets make up a small portion of the missing kits but it sure does not compare to the 3, so, something wrong?

From these numbers, looks like the 6/6A will continue it's position of being Van's most popular model for a long time to come.
Click to expand...

Actually Jon,
The RV-4 has never gone out of production (though the production volume is way down). Anyone that wants to can still buy an RV-4 kit.
 
JonJay said:
...
The 4 kit has been out of production for a long time...
Click to expand...

Typo? You can still order all the RV-4 kits new. AFIK, the only kit you can't still buy new is the -6 empennage.

I really don't think we have to "justify" a 25% completion rate for Van's airplanes. I don't have data, but I think that is much better than most other kit manufacturers.
 
longranger said:
Typo? You can still order all the RV-4 kits new. AFIK, the only kit you can't still buy new is the -6 empennage.

I really don't think we have to "justify" a 25% completion rate for Van's airplanes. I don't have data, but I think that is much better than most other kit manufacturers.
Click to expand...

I stand corrected. Sorry.
 
If that's where the numbers came from those completion numbers have no meaning. Bummer.
Click to expand...

The original post has a link to the Youtube video. The numbers came from a Vans employee giving a speech at this years homecoming. Not scientific. As he said, he was just poking around the database one day and starting writing down numbers.

He went on to estimate how many compression strokes that translated to in our engines, and how much 100LL we burn.

I posted this just to have some fun. I thought the numbers were interesting.
 
longranger said:
AFIK, the only kit you can't still buy new is the -6 empennage.
Click to expand...

You can still buy the RV6 empennage new. It just doesn't come as a kit...you have to buy the individual parts. Vans obviously has all the parts but the fact that they no longer offer the kit simply suggest that no-one now wants to start building an RV6 from scratch (ie. they are receiving zero orders for RV6 empennages).
 
The information in this thread is interesting but no indicator of the completion rate of RV aircraft. Some builders take 15 years to complete a project. The difference between kits sold and those flying are those still under construction, not abandoned.

Years ago when the process was scratch building (plan built) the completion rate was reported to be about 15%. Lots of guys bought a plan, built one or two parts or none at all. The initial investment was low and when the charm wore off, so did the build process.

Today, especially with Vans kits, the completion rate is much, much higher. The incentive to build and fly are apparent - ease of building, the flying qualities of the airplane, money invested, and even a chance of recouping some of that money down the road. The airplanes are very popular.

I'd venture the final completion rate will be well over 75% when all is said and done.
 
Color me as one who is taking the long build process. I've just rolled the fuselage on a 9A that I started 10 years ago. A lost job got in the way, then extensive travel for new jobs, then a new set of twins, etc. I'll get there eventually unless the rising cost of an engine sinks me. Can't believe how much more they are now than when I started.
 
long build process

QueueCT said:
Color me as one who is taking the long build process. I've just rolled the fuselage on a 9A that I started 10 years ago. A lost job got in the way, then extensive travel for new jobs, then a new set of twins, etc. I'll get there eventually . . . .
Click to expand...


Even the snail made it onto the ark.
 
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